Possible Scenarios Of Development Research Articles

PLANNING OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS AND TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT OF THESE PROJECTS WITH INTEGRATED RISK-MANAGEMENT IN UNPREDICTABILITY IN STEEL COMPANIES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC

Current business conditions are characterized by rapid changes in the global business environment. Businesses are exposed to crises with hardly predictable development, the changing conditions in financial markets, fluctuations in economic growth and demand. Strong competition and pressure on product prices force companies to increase efficiency, innovate products, manufacturing processes and equipment, transfer production capacities. This is reflected in the management of industrial enterprises and their investment and technical development projects, including metallurgical production. The paper deals with the method of planning and management of investment and technical development projects in industrial enterprises under increased risk and uncertainty. In such conditions it is appropriate to use methods of project management with an integrated risk management. In the project planning phase especially uncertainty in metallurgical products market, prices of raw materials, availability and cost of corporate financing and exchange rate fluctuations should be included in decision making. It is necessary to evaluate the economic stability of customers and suppliers and potential threats from competitors. The project execution speed as well as meeting its goals is an important success factor. It is often necessary to analyze several key scenarios of possible development of business environment and our planned project. Besides the negative risk, i.e. threats, it is also useful to search for positive side of uncertainty and risk, i.e. opportunities. The project execution plan should be divided into phases and stages with checkpoints. Identified risks should be continuously monitored and controlled. Principles and practices described in the paper significantly contribute to increasing project success and efficiency.

RESEARCH AND THE ANALYSIS OF NOT STATIONARITY OF EMERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATIONS AT OPERATION OF HAZARDOUS PRODUCTION FACILITIES

Modern level of a technique of the analysis of system risks doesn't consider not stationarity of service conditions of processing equipment and not stationarity of operational working parameters of technological processes that leads to essential accumulation of damages to the equipment and causes in many cases unpreparedness of security services of the enterprises of an oil and gas complex to effective actions for prevention and elimination of emergencies. The indicators and factors resulting in not stationarity of operation of technological installations and the proceeding technological processes at the enterprises of oil and gas branch are presented in article. The most decisive factor influencing not stationarity of operation of technological installations is daily consumption of raw materials and loading of technological capacities. Thus the arising not stationarity of working parameters of process (pressure, temperature, etc.) leads to essential accumulation of damages and, as a result, to emergencies. The second important point influencing not stationarity of processes is quality of the consumed raw materials when reaction of the equipment is traced on a corrosion situation. The new approach allowing to consider not stationarity of casual technological processes at identification and ranging of OPO is necessary for increase of reliability and efficiency of an assessment of risks at a design stage and operation of OPO. The function chart of possible scenarios of development of emergencies for standard technological installation of the enterprise where the main stages of emergence and development of emergencies taking into account not stationarity of conditions of their emergence are considered is presented. Need of use of methodology of management of non-stationary system risks for the solution of problems of industrial safety of OPO is proved.

RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN UKRAINE: CURRENT STATE AND TENDENCIES

Households are primary means of survival for rural people of Ukraine under conditions of limited employment and income-earning opportunities in the countryside. In this paper, main tendencies of development of rural households are analyzed. Particular attention is given to socio-demographic characteristics, agricultural production activities, and changes in incomes and expenditures of the household sector. Further possible scenarios of development of households are considered.

Oligarchs: The Past or the Future of Russian Capitalism?

Based mostly on a unique dataset built for the Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) 2004 we discuss degree of ownership concentration in Russian economy and its role in shaping economic and political institutions in Russia. In particular, we find that Russian 'oligarchs' do control a substantial part of the economy including natural resources industries. In the sectors covered by our sample (that account for 77% of total industrial output), 22 largest private owners control 39-42% of output and employment and seem to run their empires more efficiently than other Russian owners. Majority of Russian population believes that oligarchs acquired their assets in an illegitimate way which creates a fundamental problem for building a democratic and prosperous Russia. Comparing modern Russia to other countries that have faced high concentration of national wealth, we consider three possible scenarios of development.

Finacial Decentralization and Local Self-governance in the Period of Reforms

This paper reviews Russian municipal budget revenues and expenditures reforms in 1992–2002. Recent tax reforms have resulted in the decrease of local fiscal autonomy. Municipal budget revenues have dropped sharply in relative as well as absolute terms. Despite significant formal expenditure powers Russian municipalities are completely financially dependent on higher-level governments. Within regions regional governments have continued to increasingly finance municipal social expenditures. The examination of possible scenarios of development after the enactment of the draft law"On the General Principles of the Organization of Local Self-governance in the Russian Federation" shows that the fiscal centralization trend will continue.

Stream system restoration in a strip‐mining region, eastern Germany: dimension, problems, and first steps

1. Excessive open-cast mining of lignite in the Lower Lausitia, eastern Germany, resulted in a new dimension in the field of stream system restoration. Up to 1990, 740 km2 of landscape had been destroyed, including topography and stream systems. Loss of streams is also reaching far beyond the actual open-pit boundaries due to the coherent groundwater depression covering 2100 km2. 2. Stream system restoration takes place in a man-made landscape of which the least part comprises unnatural conditions. A conceptual framework for specifying long-term restoration goals in the man-made environment is established, adapted to the complexity of comprehensive landscape restoration. This includes extensive surveys of stream structures and assessment of ecological functions in the post-mining areas. 3. Standards to evaluate possible scenarios of development must be explicit. Adapted to the specific constraints and the potential of the post-mining landscape, undirected abiotic processes should be the primary standard in the so-called natural recovery areas of the post-mining landscape. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stream system restoration in a strip-mining region, eastern Germany: dimension, problems, and first steps

1. Excessive open-cast mining of lignite in the Lower Lausitia, eastern Germany, resulted in a new dimension in the field of stream system restoration. Up to 1990, 740 km2 of landscape had been destroyed, including topography and stream systems. Loss of streams is also reaching far beyond the actual open-pit boundaries due to the coherent groundwater depression covering 2100 km2. 2. Stream system restoration takes place in a man-made landscape of which the least part comprises unnatural conditions. A conceptual framework for specifying long-term restoration goals in the man-made environment is established, adapted to the complexity of comprehensive landscape restoration. This includes extensive surveys of stream structures and assessment of ecological functions in the post-mining areas. 3. Standards to evaluate possible scenarios of development must be explicit. Adapted to the specific constraints and the potential of the post-mining landscape, undirected abiotic processes should be the primary standard in the so-called natural recovery areas of the post-mining landscape. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.