Abstract
Modern level of a technique of the analysis of system risks doesn't consider not stationarity of service conditions of processing equipment and not stationarity of operational working parameters of technological processes that leads to essential accumulation of damages to the equipment and causes in many cases unpreparedness of security services of the enterprises of an oil and gas complex to effective actions for prevention and elimination of emergencies. The indicators and factors resulting in not stationarity of operation of technological installations and the proceeding technological processes at the enterprises of oil and gas branch are presented in article. The most decisive factor influencing not stationarity of operation of technological installations is daily consumption of raw materials and loading of technological capacities. Thus the arising not stationarity of working parameters of process (pressure, temperature, etc.) leads to essential accumulation of damages and, as a result, to emergencies. The second important point influencing not stationarity of processes is quality of the consumed raw materials when reaction of the equipment is traced on a corrosion situation. The new approach allowing to consider not stationarity of casual technological processes at identification and ranging of OPO is necessary for increase of reliability and efficiency of an assessment of risks at a design stage and operation of OPO. The function chart of possible scenarios of development of emergencies for standard technological installation of the enterprise where the main stages of emergence and development of emergencies taking into account not stationarity of conditions of their emergence are considered is presented. Need of use of methodology of management of non-stationary system risks for the solution of problems of industrial safety of OPO is proved.
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