Positive Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex

AbstractThe Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observed anomalies over the winter. Winter 2021/2022 was well predicted in general by seasonal forecast systems. The ensemble mean indicated a positive winter NAO and the forecast spread of forecasts from the Met Office GloSea6 seasonal prediction system spanned the observed mean sea level pressure anomaly for the whole winter and the individual months. However, December showed the largest departure from the mean of the forecast which is consistent with evidence from previous work that early winter ENSO teleconnections are too weak in model predictions. Nevertheless, around one in four members captured the negative NAO pattern in December. The strong pressure gradient and positive NAO predicted for the latter part of the winter allowed successful warning of the possibility of above average storminess and strong winds which occurred in February 2022. This is potentially useful information for the energy sector who increasingly rely on wind power and the insurance industry for warning of storm damage.

Sea ice volume variability and water temperature in the Greenland Sea

Abstract. This study explores a link between the long-term variations in the integral sea ice volume (SIV) in the Greenland Sea and oceanic processes. Using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, 1979–2016), we show that the increasing sea ice volume flux through Fram Strait goes in parallel with a decrease in SIV in the Greenland Sea. The overall SIV loss in the Greenland Sea is 113 km3 per decade, while the total SIV import through Fram Strait increases by 115 km3 per decade. An analysis of the ocean temperature and the mixed-layer depth (MLD) over the climatic mean area of the winter marginal sea ice zone (MIZ) revealed a doubling of the amount of the upper-ocean heat content available for the sea ice melt from 1993 to 2016. This increase alone can explain the SIV loss in the Greenland Sea over the 24-year study period, even when accounting for the increasing SIV flux from the Arctic. The increase in the oceanic heat content is found to be linked to an increase in temperature of the Atlantic Water along the main currents of the Nordic Seas, following an increase in the oceanic heat flux from the subtropical North Atlantic. We argue that the predominantly positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the 4 most recent decades, together with an intensification of the deep convection in the Greenland Sea, is responsible for the intensification of the cyclonic circulation pattern in the Nordic Seas, which results in the observed long-term variations in the SIV.

Parasite prevalence increases with temperature in an avian metapopulation in northern Norway.

Climate and weather conditions may have substantial effects on the ecology of both parasites and hosts in natural populations. The strength and shape of the effects of weather on parasites and hosts are likely to change as global warming affects local climate. These changes may in turn alter fundamental elements of parasite-host dynamics. We explored the influence of temperature and precipitation on parasite prevalence in a metapopulation of avian hosts in northern Norway. We also investigated if annual change in parasite prevalence was related to winter climate, as described by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We found that parasite prevalence increased with temperature within-years and decreased slightly with increasing precipitation. We also found that a mild winter (positive winter NAO index) was associated with higher mean parasite prevalence the following year. Our results indicate that both local and large scale weather conditions may affect the proportion of hosts that become infected by parasites in natural populations. Understanding the effect of climate and weather on parasite-host relationships in natural populations is vital in order to predict the full consequence of global warming.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation at local and regional scales: a case study of the Belgian coast

Together, large‐scale atmospheric circulation and local winds determine the occurrence of storm surges that may result in disastrous erosion. This study investigates the interrelationships between large‐scale atmospheric flow and local wind regimes as driving factors of erosion at the Belgian coast. The large‐scale atmospheric circulation is examined in terms of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and it is analysed and compared with regional‐scale circulation patterns (i.e. circulation weather types) and local wind regimes, on both annual and seasonal timescales. The results indicate that a strengthening of the positive winter NAO phase can result in an increase in the frequencies of west (W), southwest (SW) and northwest (NW) directional weather types, leading to local wind speeds in excess of 8ms−1, propagating towards the coast. These conditions are likely to lead to erosive events at the coast. By contrast, a weakening of the winter NAO phase can favour the development of northeast (NE), north (N), east (E) and southeast (SE) weather types. The NE and E types generate particularly strong winds, which potentially worsen erosion at the coast. The E and SE types do not, however, affect wind at a local scale. Thus, the extent to which the wind regime at the Belgian coast is sensitive to the winter NAO is a function of the equilibrium between the NAO effects and the regional atmospheric flow direction. In this study, a downscaling conceptual model is developed which relates climate to large‐scale and local‐scale coastal erosion forcing factors. A better understanding of the variability of, and the interrelationships between, climate, meteorology and erosion can help us to adapt to the changes in coastal evolution driven by climate change, improving the prospects of long‐term coastal resilience.

Flowering of allergenically important plant species in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation system and thermal time in the Czech Republic

This paper analyses long-term (1960-2015) onset of flowering in 16 native terrestrial plants (11 of them produce important allergens) recorded in different parts of the Czech Republic (southern, central and northern part) in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the preceding winter and thermal data-growing degree-days (GDD) and soil temperature. Flowering occurred significantly earlier following positive winter NAO phases (causing spring to be warmer than normal in Central Europe) in nearly all early-flowering (February, March, April) species; high Pearson correlation values were recorded in, e.g. wood anemone, common snowdrop, goat willow, common hazel and common alder. There was found a difference between the southern and northern part of the country, e.g. in silver birch and pedunculate oak. Out of the later-flowering (May-July) plant species, black elder and meadow foxtail also significantly correlated with the winter NAO index, lime tree correlated less markedly. The best results of a threshold for calculation of GDD to onset of beginning of flowering were found in lime tree-it was 5 degrees C at all three stations. Results of other taxa were more variable (e.g. 4-7 degrees C in goat willow; 6-10 degrees C in silver birch). Pearson correlation coefficients between NAO index and GDD were negative in lime tree at all thresholds (5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 degrees C), while goat willow and silver birch were not so uniform (both positive and negative values). Correlation coefficients between phenophase onset and soil temperature (10 cm depth) had the highest values in silver birch, European larch and wood anemone. Stations situated at higher elevation showed negative correlation coefficient with soil temperature in common snowdrop, pedunculate oak, meadow foxtail and lime tree; other values were positive.

Influences of the atmospheric patterns on unstable climate-growth associations of western Mediterranean forests

Quantifying climate-growth associations is needed to evaluate how forest productivity will respond to climate change. Year-to-year fluctuations in forest productivity and radial growth are partly explained by local climatic conditions driven by large-scale atmospheric patterns. This is illustrated by Iberian forests in the western Mediterranean Basin, which are subjected to complex climatic and atmospheric influences such as Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclogenesis. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the major atmospheric circulation patterns affecting Iberian forests since positive winter NAO phases lead to dry and warm conditions. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) may also explain Iberian forest growth in some areas since this index captures Mediterranean cyclogenesis and WeMO negative phases are linked to warm and wet spring to summer conditions. Here, we analyze the associations between atmospheric patterns, climate and tree growth and we determine if they are changing through time. We use dendrochronology to relate radial growth of four tree species (Pyrenean oak, Sweet chestnut, Maritime pine and Scots pine) growing in western Spain to climate conditions and the NAO and WeMO indices. Winter and early spring temperatures increased since the 1950s in the area whereas the negative association between winter precipitation and the NAO strengthened since then. However, mean temperature rise was particularly evident since the 1970s. Growth was reduced by dry conditions during the growing season (spring and summer), but also by cold and dry conditions during the previous autumn and winter. This explains why the NAO January and the WeMo April indices were negative to growth of three species excluding Pyrenean oak. The early 1970s reflected an inflection point in the instability of climate-growth associations in the study area. We conclude that the winter NAO is a relevant driver of forest growth in the western Iberian Peninsula forests but additional atmospheric patterns (WeMO) also affect, albeit to a minor extent, these forests.

Climate Change in the Kola Peninsula, Arctic Russia, during the Last 50 Years from Meteorological Observations

AbstractThe authors provide a detailed climatology and evaluation of recent climate change in the Kola Peninsula, Arctic Russia, a region influenced by both the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The analysis is based on 50 years of monthly surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation (PPN), and sea level pressure (SLP) data from 10 meteorological stations for 1966–2015. Regional mean annual SAT is ~0°C: the moderating effect of the ocean is such that coastal (inland) stations have a positive (negative) value. Examined mean annual PPN totals rise from ~430 mm in the northeast of the region to ~600 mm in the west. Annual SAT in the Kola Peninsula has increased by 2.3° ± 1.0°C over the past 50 years. Seasonally, statistically significant warming has taken place in spring and fall, although the largest trend has occurred in winter. Although there has been no significant change in annual PPN, spring has become significantly wetter and fall drier. The former is associated with the only significant seasonal SLP trend (decrease). A positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is generally associated with a warmer and wetter Kola Peninsula whereas a positive Siberian high (SH) index has the opposite impact. The relationship between both the NAO and SH and the SAT is broadly coherent across the region whereas their relationship with PPN varies markedly, although none of the relationships is temporally invariant. Reduced sea ice in the Barents and White Seas and associated circulation changes are likely to be the principal drivers behind the observed changes.

The North Atlantic Oscillation system and plant phenology.

The onset of flowering in 78 wild and domesticated terrestrial plant species recorded in South Moravia (Czech Republic) from 1965 to 2014 was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the preceding winter. Flowering occurred significantly earlier following positive winter NAO phases (causing spring to be warmer than normal in Central Europe) in nearly all early-flowering (March, April) species; high Pearson correlation values were recorded in, e.g., goat willow, spring snowflake, golden bell, cornelian cherry, sweet violet, cherry plum, grape hyacinth, apricot, blackthorn, common dandelion, cherry, southern magnolia, common apple, cuckoo flower, European bird cherry, and cherry laurel. In contrast, the timing of later-flowering plant species (May to July) did not correlate significantly with the winter NAO index. It was found that local temperature is obviously a proximate factor of plant phenology, while the winter NAO is the ultimate factor, affecting temperature and other meteorological phenomena in Central Europe during spring season.

Effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Thermal Characteristics of Lakes in Poland

This paper presents the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the thermal characteristics of lakes in Poland. In the analysis, the use was made of monthly air temperatures recorded at fifteen meteorological stations, water temperatures of twelve lakes, and Hurrell’s winter NAO indices. Over the study period (1971–2010), there was a marked increase in the temperatures of both, air and lake waters. Depending on the NAO phase, water temperatures were observed to depart from mean values, being markedly higher than average (even by 1°C) in the positive winter NAO phase. The differences in water temperatures were statistically significant in the winter-spring season. In turn, in the negative NAODJFM phase lake water temperatures in winter and spring were markedly lower than average (in March even by 1.0°C). The unique response of some lakes depends on their morphometric parameters, including their mean depth.

Analysis of phenotypic change in relation to climatic drivers in a population of Soay sheep Ovis aries

Climatic change has frequently been identified as a key driver of change in biological communities. These changes can take the form of alterations to population dynamics, phenotypic characters, genetics and the life history of organisms and can have impacts on entire ecosystems. This study presents a novel investigation of how changes in a large scale climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can influence population dynamics and phenotypic characters in a population of ungulates. We use an integral projection model combined with actual climate change predictions to project future body size distributions for a population of Soay sheep Ovis aries. The climate change predictions used to direct our model projections were taken from published results of climate models, covering a range of different emissions scenarios. Our model results showed that for positive changes in the mean NAO large population declines occurred simultaneously with increases in mean body weight. The exact direction and magnitude of changes to population dynamics and character distributions were dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario and model used to predict the NAO. This study has demonstrated how integral projection models can use outputs of climate models to direct projections of population dynamics and phenotypic character distributions. This approach allows the results of this study to be placed within current climate change research. The nature of integral projection models means that this methodology can be easily applied to other populations. The model can also be easily updated when new climate change predictions become available, making it a useful tool for understanding potential population level responses to climatic change.SynthesisUnderstanding how changes in climate affect biological communities is a key component in predicting the future form of populations. Utilising a novel approach that incorporates climatic drivers (in this instance the winter North Atlantic Oscillation) into an integral projection model framework, we predict future Soay sheep dynamics under specific climate change scenarios. Tracking quantitative trait distributions and life history metrics, our results predict declining population size and increasing body weight for an increasingly positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, as predicted by climate models. This has important implications for future wildlife management strategies and linking demographic responses to climate change.

Role of natural external forcing factors in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and their relationship on inter-decadal timescale

We use reconstructed data and multi-centennial integrations performed with the Bergen Climate Model Version 2 to investigate the impact of natural external forcing factors on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the potential relationship between the ISM rainfall and the winter NAO on decadal to inter-decadal timescales. The model simulations include a 600-year control integration (CTL600) and a 600-year integration with time-varied natural external forcing factors from 1400 to 1999 (EXT600). Both reconstructed data and the simulation showed increased ISM rainfall 2–3 years after strong volcanic eruptions. Strong volcanic eruptions decrease the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), which increases the strength of the southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea. With negative externally-forced radiative anomaly, the lower stratospheric pole-to-equator winter temperature gradient is enhanced, leading to a positive winter NAO anomaly with a time lag of 1 year. There is no significant correlation between the winter NAO and ISM rainfall in CTL600. However, the ISM rainfall is significantly positively correlated with the winter NAO in EXT600, with the NAO leading by 2–4 years, which is consistent with the NAO–ISM rainfall relationship in the reconstructed data. We suggest that natural external forcing factors regulate the inter-decadal variability of both the winter NAO and the ISM rainfall and thus likely lead to an increased statistical but not causal relationship between them on the inter-decadal timescale over the past centuries.

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling U.K. butterfly population size and phenology

1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts considerable control on U.K. weather. This study investigates the impact of the NAO on butterfly abundance and phenology using 34 years of data from the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS).2. The study uses a multi-species indicator to show that the NAO does not affect overall U.K. butterfly population size. However, the abundance of bivoltine butterfly species, which have longer flight seasons, were found to be more likely to respond positively to the NAO compared with univoltine species, which show little or a negative response.3. A positive winter NAO index is associated with warmer weather and earlier flight dates for Anthocharis cardamines (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), Melanargia galathea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Aphantopus hyperantus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Pyronia tithonus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Lasiommata megera (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Polyommatus icarus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). In bivoltine species, the NAO affects the phenology of the first generation, the timing of which indirectly controls the timing of the second generation.4. The NAO influences the timing of U.K. butterfly flight seasons more strongly than it influences population size.

Cluster Analysis of North Atlantic–European Circulation Types and Links with Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

Abstract Observed atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region is examined using cluster analysis. A clustering algorithm incorporating a “simulated annealing” methodology is employed to improve on solutions found by the conventional k-means technique. Clustering is applied to daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields to derive a set of circulation types for six 2-month seasons. A measure of the quality of this clustering is defined to reflect the average similarity of the fields in a cluster to each other. It is shown that a range of classifications can be produced for which this measure is almost identical but which partition the days quite differently. This lack of a unique set of circulation types suggests that distinct weather regimes in NAE circulation do not exist or are very weak. It is also shown that the stability of the clustering solution to removal of data is not maximized by a suitable choice of the number of clusters. Indeed, there does not appear to be any robust way of choosing an optimum number of circulation types. Despite the apparent lack of preferred circulation types, cluster analysis can usefully be applied to generate a set of patterns that fully characterize the different circulation types appearing in each season. These patterns can then be used to analyze NAE climate variability. Ten clusters per season are chosen to ensure that a range of distinct circulation types that span the variability is produced. Using this classification, the effect of forcing of NAE circulation by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is analyzed. This shows a significant influence of SST in this region on certain circulation types in almost all seasons. A tendency for a negative correlation between El Niño and an anomaly pattern resembling the positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) emerges in a number of seasons. A notable exception is November–December, which shows the opposite relationship, with positive NAO-like patterns correlated with El Niño.

Dramatic changes in the return date of Guillemots Uria aalge to colonies in Shetland, 1962–2005

Capsule Changes in return date coincided with marked changes in population size that probably resulted in fluctuating competition for nest-sites. Aims To document the changes in return dates over a 44-year period and to identify the factors associated with these changes. Methods We compared changes in return date at Shetland colonies with those for the Isle of May, southeast Scotland, and with the available information on population size, the abundance of some fish species eaten by Common Guillemots and large-scale changes in the oceanography and climate of the eastern Atlantic as reflected by the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results Common Guillemots normally return to colonies in Shetland in late winter. However, during the 1960s return dates became gradually earlier with birds present from early October. Autumn return remained the norm for about ten years after which return dates gradually reverted back to late winter. In contrast, Common Guillemots on the Isle of May, 400 km south of Shetland, showed no marked shift, returning in October each year. There was a strong negative correlation between date of return of Shetland birds and population size, whereas on the Isle of May birds came back earlier when there was a large positive winter NAO index. There was no convincing evidence that changes in wintering areas or fish abundance influenced when birds returned to the colonies, although the fish data may not have been collected on the correct spatial scale. Conclusion Competition for high quality nest-sites is the most likely reason for Common Guillemots returning to the colonies during the autumn and winter.

Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe

This paper analyses the dependence of the first spring arrival dates of short/medium- and long-distance migrant bird species on climate warming in eastern Europe. The timing of arrival of the selected species at the observation site correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind characteristics. A positive correlation of fluctuations in winter and spring air temperatures with variations in the NAO index has been established in eastern Europe. Positive winter NAO index values are related to earlier spring arrival of birds in the eastern Baltic region and vice versa—arrival is late when the NAO index is negative. The impact of climate warming on the bird’s life cycle depends on local or regional climate characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that differences in climate indices between North Africa and Europe can influence the timing of spring arrival. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in first spring arrival dates between European populations occur after individuals cross the Sahara. We assume that the endogenous programme of migration control in short/medium-distance migrants synchronises with the changing environment on their wintering grounds and along their migration routes, whereas in long-distance migrants it is rather with environmental changes in the second part of their migratory route in Europe. Our results strongly indicate that the mechanism of dynamic balance in the interaction between the endogenous regulatory programme and environmental factors determines the pattern of spring arrival, as well as migration timing.

Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment

Several aspects of terrestrial ecosystems are known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through effects of the NAO on winter climate, but recently the winter NAO has also been shown to be correlated with the following summer climate, including drought. Since drought is a major factor determining grassland primary productivity, the hypothesis was tested that the winter NAO is associated with summer herbage growth through soil moisture availability, using data from the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted, UK between 1960 and 1999. The herbage growth rate, mean daily rainfall, mean daily potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the mean and maximum potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) were calculated between the two annual cuts in early summer and autumn for the unlimed, unfertilized plots. Mean and maximum PSMD were more highly correlated than rainfall or PE with herbage growth rate. Regression analysis showed that the natural logarithm of the herbage growth rate approximately halved for a 250 mm increase in maximum PSMD over the range 50-485 mm. The maximum PSMD was moderately correlated with the preceding winter NAO, with a positive winter NAO index associated with greater maximum PSMD. A positive winter NAO index was also associated with low herbage growth rate, accounting for 22% of the interannual variation in the growth rate. It was concluded that the association between the winter NAO and summer herbage growth rate is mediated by the PSMD in summer.

Northern Hemispheric Trends of Pressure Indices and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Observations, Reconstructions, and Coupled GCM Simulations

Abstract The decadal trend behavior of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation is investigated utilizing long-term simulations with different state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for present-day climate conditions (1990), reconstructions of the past 500 yr, and observations. The multimodel simulations show that strong positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) trends are connected with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) and exhibit an SST tripole trend pattern and a northward shift of the storm-track tail. Strong negative winter trends of the Aleutian low are associated with SST changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region and a westward shift of the storm track in the North Pacific. The observed simultaneous appearance of strong positive NAO and negative Aleutian low trends is very unlikely to occur by chance in the unforced simulations and reconstructions. The positive winter NAO trend of the last 50 yr is not statistically different from the level of internal atmosphere–ocean variability. The unforced simulations also show a strong link between positive SST trends in the ENSO region and negative Aleutian low trends. With much larger observed SST trends in the ENSO region, this suggests that the observed negative Aleutian low trend is possibly influenced by external forcing, for example, global warming, volcanism, and/or solar activity change.

Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birds

AbstractThis paper reports on the total distribution of spring migration timing of willow warbler, chiffchaff and pied flycatcher at locations in the UK, Germany, Russia and Finland. This is the first time that high‐quality data based on known‐effort monitoring has been examined on a continental scale. First arrival dates, commonly reported in the literature, were positively correlated with mean arrival dates although they would not make good predictors of the latter. At all locations, at least one aspect of the arrival distribution of each species had got significantly earlier in recent years. The trend towards earliness was associated with warmer local temperatures and more positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation index. In years that were early, the arrival distribution became more elongated and skewed. Researchers should now investigate the consequences of earlier arrival on current and future bird populations.

Anomalies in the seasonal cycle of sea level pressure in Iceland and the North Atlantic Oscillation

This letter presents an analysis of a new homogenized time series of daily mean sea level pressure (SLP) from Reykjavík and Stykkishólmur, Iceland from 1823–1999. Time series statistical techniques including harmonic analysis are used to identify the seasonal march of pressure and its variability through the record. The results are assessed regarding the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. In addition to the annual cycle, the seasonal march of SLP has an appreciable semi‐annual cycle, as well as anomalies (abrupt rises and falls) occurring at remarkably distinct times in spring and winter. Multidecadal variability is apparent in the seasonal cycle and the anomalies. A shift in intraseasonal variability is observed in recent decades, including an extension of the winter Icelandic Low enhancement period into March. Increasing failure or delay of the “usual” abrupt pressure rise in Iceland in late February has contributed to the unusually positive winter NAO index values since the 1960s.