Positive Southern Annular Mode Research Articles

The Holocene hypsithermal in the Australian region

Close examination of key and well-dated Holocene sites, both on land and at sea in the Australian region indicates that at the very beginning of the Holocene, as a result of strong westerlies, there must have been a continuous positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Following from that, the entire region switched to a negative SAM scenario and, during that time, the westerlies must have retreated further south. Afterwards, a period of time spaning ∼8200 to ∼5500 years ago temperatures were higher than today. We refer to it as the Holocene Hyspithermal. Coincident to this period, lake levels and postulated rainfall were extraordinarily high and vegetation spectra in places very different compared to today. The extent of this period varies by a few centuries between sites, but this may result from the level of resolution and also appears to be controlled by latitude. There is also clear indication that the influence of the westerlies was reduced over Australia during those two and a half millennia.Nevertheless, air temperatures recognised in Antarctic ice cores are at the opposite to those recognised in Australia. In addition, during the Australian Holocene Hypsithermal, CO2 levels were at their lowest in Antarctic ice cores.Climatic conditions then progressively deteriorated everywhere a bit after ∼6000 years BP until recent times as ENSO signals with alternating El Niño and La Niña conditions across the entire Pacific region as already described by Perner et al. (2018) based on the same cores studied here.Brief mention is also made to the presence of humans in SE Australia during the Holocene. It seems that human activities changed well after the period of high temperatures and rainfall, with more sedentary activities along the major rivers, with an enhancement of food production in organized settings suggestive of villages.

The circum-Antarctic ice-shelves respond to a more positive Southern Annular Mode with regionally varied melting

The Southern Hemisphere cryosphere has recently shown regionally-contrasted responses to climate change, in particular to the positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode. However, the understanding of the impacts of this mode on ice-shelf basal melt at a circum-Antarctic scale is still limited. Here, we performed idealized experiments with a pan-Antarctic regional ice-shelf cavity-resolving ocean—sea-ice model for different phases of the Southern Annular Mode. We show that positive phases lead to increased upwelling and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity close to ice shelves, while the opposite occurs for negative phases. A one-standard-deviation increase of the Southern Annular Mode leads to a net basal mass loss of 40 Gt yr−1, with strong regional contrasts: increased ice-shelf basal melt in the Bellingshausen and Western Pacific sectors and the opposite response in the Amundsen sector. Estimates of 1000–1200 and 2090–2100 ice-shelf basal melt changes due to the Southern Annular Mode are −86.6 Gt yr−1 and 55.0 to 164.9 Gt yr−1, respectively, compared to the present.

Can current reanalyses accurately portray changes in Southern Annular Mode structure prior to 1979?

Early reanalyses are less than optimal for investigating the regional effects of ozone depletion on Southern Hemisphere (SH) high-latitude climate because the availability of satellite sounder data from 1979 significantly improved their accuracy in data sparse regions, leading to a coincident inhomogeneity. To determine whether current reanalyses are better at SH high-latitudes in the pre-satellite era, here we examine the capabilities of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis (ERA5), the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) to reproduce and help explain the pronounced change in the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Antarctic near-surface air temperatures (SAT) between 1950 and 1979 (EARLY period) and 1980–2020 (LATE period). We find that ERA5 best reproduces Antarctic SAT in the EARLY period and is also the most homogeneous reanalysis across the EARLY and LATE periods. ERA5 and 20CRv3 provide a good representation of SAM in both periods with JRA-55 only similarly skilful in the LATE period. Nevertheless, all three reanalyses show the marked change in Antarctic SAM-SAT relationships between the two periods. In particular, ERA5 and 20CRv3 demonstrate the observed switch in the sign of the SAM-SAT relationship in the Antarctic Peninsula: analysis of changes in SAM structure and associated meridional wind anomalies reveal that in these reanalyses positive SAM is linked to cold southerly winds during the EARLY period and warm northerly winds in the LATE period, thus providing a simple explanation for the regional SAM-SAT relationship reversal.

Environmental influences on breeding biology and pup production in Australian fur seals.

Knowledge of factors affecting a species' breeding biology is crucial to understanding how environmental variability impacts population trajectories and enables predictions on how species may respond to global change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) represents the largest marine predator biomass in southeastern Australia, an oceanic region experiencing rapid warming that will impact the abundance and distribution of prey. The present study (1997–2020) investigated breeding phenology and pup production in AUFS on Kanowna Island, northern Bass Strait. The pupping period varied by 11 days and the median pupping date by 8 days and were negatively correlated to 1- and 2-year lagged winter zonal winds, respectively, within Bass Strait. While there was no temporal trend over the study period, annual pup production (1386–2574 pups) was negatively correlated to 1-year lagged summer zonal winds in the Bonney Upwelling region and positively correlated to the current-year Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In addition, a fecundity index (ratio of new-born pups to adult females at the median pupping date) was positively correlated with current-year Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions. Periods of positive SOI and positive SAM conditions are forecast to increase in coming decades, suggesting advantageous conditions for the Kanowna Island AUFS population.

Stable Isotope Oscillations in Whale Baleen Are Linked to Climate Cycles, Which May Reflect Changes in Feeding for Humpback and Southern Right Whales in the Southern Hemisphere

Baleen whales that undertake extensive long-distance migrations away from reliable food sources must depend on body reserves acquired prior to migration. Prey abundance fluctuates, which has been linked in some regions with climate cycles. However, where historically these cycles have been predictable, due to climate change they are occurring at higher frequencies and intensities. We tested if there were links between variability in whale feeding patterns and changes in climate cycles including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). To reconstruct feeding patterns we used the values of bulk stable isotopes of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) assimilated within the baleen plates of 18 humpback and 4 southern right whales between 1963 and 2019, then matched them with climate anomalies from the time in which the section of baleen grew. We show that variability in stable isotope values within baleen for both humpback and southern right whales is linked with shifts in climate cycles and may imply changes in feeding patterns due to resource availability. However, these relationships differed depending on the oceanic region in which the whales feed. In the western Pacific, Southern Ocean feeding humpback whales had elevated nitrogen and carbon stable isotope values during La Niña and positive SAM phases when lagged 4 years, potentially reflecting reduced feeding opportunities. On the other hand, in the Indian Ocean the opposite occurs, where lower nitrogen and carbon stable isotope values were found during positive SAM phases at 2–4-year lag periods for both Southern Ocean feeding humpback and southern right whales, which may indicate improved feeding opportunities. Identifying links between stable isotope values and changes in climate cycles may contribute to our understanding of how complex oscillation patterns in baleen are formed. As projections of future climate scenarios emphasise there will be greater variability in climate cycles and thus the primary food source of baleen whales, we can then use these links to investigate how long-term feeding patterns may change in the future.

An Investigation of Extreme Cold Events at the South Pole

Abstract From 5 July to 11 September 2012, the Amundsen–Scott South Pole station experienced an unprecedented 78 days in a row with a maximum temperature at or below −50°C. Aircraft and ground-based activity cannot function without risk below this temperature. Lengthy periods of extreme cold temperatures are characterized by a drop in pressure of around 15 hPa over 4 days, accompanied by winds from grid east. Periodic influxes of warm air from the Weddell Sea raise the temperature as the wind shifts to grid north. The end of the event occurs when the temperature increase is enough to move past the −50°C threshold. This study also examines the length of extreme cold periods. The number of days below −50°C in early winter has been decreasing since 1999, and this trend is statistically significant at the 5% level. Late winter shows an increase in the number of days below −50°C for the same period, but this trend is not statistically significant. Changes in the southern annular mode, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation/tripole index are investigated in relation to the initiation of extreme cold events. None of the correlations are statistically significant. A positive southern annular mode and a La Niña event or a central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern would position the upper-level circulation to favor a strong, symmetrical polar vortex with strong westerlies over the Southern Ocean, leading to a cold pattern over the South Pole. Significance Statement The Amundsen–Scott South Pole station is the coldest Antarctic station staffed year-round by U.S. personnel. Access to the station is primarily by airplane, especially during the winter months. Ambient temperature limits air access as planes cannot operate at minimum temperatures below −50°C. The station gets supplies during the winter months if needed, and medical emergencies can happen requiring evacuations. Knowing when planes would be able to fly is crucial, especially for life-saving efforts. During 2012, a record 78 continuous days of temperatures below −50°C occurred. A positive southern annular mode denoting strong westerly winds over the Pacific Ocean and a strong polar vortex over the South Pole contribute to the maintenance of long periods of extremely cold temperatures.

Distinct patterns of monthly Southern Annular Mode events

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the mid–high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, representing large-scale variations in pressure and the polar front jet (PFJ). In SAM events, the combination of the SAM and other modes may result in different atmospheric patterns. In this study, a neural-network-based cluster technique, the self-organizing map, was applied to extract the distinct patterns of SAM events on the monthly time scale based on geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa. Four pairs of distinguishable patterns of positive and negative SAM events were identified, representing the diversity in spatial distribution, especially the zonal symmetry of the center of action at high latitudes—that is, symmetric patterns, split-center patterns, West Antarctica patterns, and a tripole pattern. Although the SAM is well known to be belt-shaped, within the selected SAM events, the occurrence frequency of symmetric patterns is only 23.8%—less than that of West Antarctica patterns. Diverse PFJ variations were found in the symmetric and asymmetric patterns of SAM events. The more asymmetric the spatial distribution of the pressure anomaly, the more localized the adjusted zonal wind anomaly. The adjusted PFJ varied in meridional displacement and strength in different patterns of SAM events. In addition, the entrance and exit of the jet changed in most of the patterns, especially in the asymmetric patterns, which might result in different climate impacts of the SAM.摘要南半球环状模 (SAM) 是南半球中–高纬度地区大气变化的主导模态, 表现为气压和极锋急流 (PFJ) 的大尺度变动, 形成强烈的气候影响. 当SAM事件发生时, 气压场异常可呈现出不同的空间结构. 本文利用自组织映射网络方法对月尺度的SAM事件进行分类, 可识别出四对具有显著差异的正, 负SAM事件类型, 包括对称型, 中心分裂型, 西南极洲型和一种三极型分布. 气压异常的空间分布越不对称, 调整后的纬向风异常越局地化. PFJ的经向位移和强度变化入口和出口的变化, 可能导致了SAM的不同气候影响.

Variability in High Wave Energy Events Around the Southern African Coast

AbstractThe wave energy flux along the southern African coastline often reaches extreme levels, seriously impacting coastal communities, infrastructure, as well as near‐coast and offshore marine operations. Understanding the drivers behind past high wave energy events and their frequency is key to forecasting future events. Using in‐situ wave buoy data recorded by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the ERA5 and CACWR global wave model products are evaluated. The better‐performing ERA5 product is used to assess long‐term variability and trends around the coastline between 1979 and 2020. There are significant increasing trends in offshore flux for all seasons, with spring having the strongest coastal trends. Substantial interannual variability exists in wave energy flux and direction. Possible drivers, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the semi‐annual oscillation (SAO), were assessed to find that SAM appears to show the strongest relationship overall. Negative (positive) SAM is associated with above (below) average and westerly (easterly) anomalies in both flux and direction. ENSO directly impacts the summer wave climate while the SAO indirectly impacts the wave energy flux over spring and winter. During many seasons, more than one climate mode is active. It is found the strongest significant near‐coast positive westerly anomalies occurred under negative SAM and negative SAO, with more intense offshore anomalies under El Niño, whereas the strongest significant negative east‐northeasterly anomalies occurred under a combination of La Niña with positive SAM and SAO phases.

Statistical analysis of the relationship between Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is an extratropical pattern that influences the climate of all Southern Hemisphere. However, the variability of this mode is an active area of research. The influence of lower frequency modes on SAM is a path to better knowledge about this pattern. The relationship between Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and SAM’s counterpart in the Northern Hemisphere (Northern Annular Mode) has been addressed by previous work. Still, few studies focus on the association between QBO and SAM. The goal of this work was to evaluate the possible QBO-SAM relationship through statistical analyses. This association was investigated by comparing QBO and SAM indices, the latter on different levels of the troposphere and stratosphere, for the 1981-2010 period. The wavelet analysis showed that the SAM indices for troposphere and stratosphere presented variability in many scales, including a two-year band. Cross-wavelets techniques between QBO and SAM ratified that this relation has a complex interaction. There was a significant common high power around the two-year band, with lags varying over the analyzed period, including no lag. Further analysis without lag confirmed previous studies, indicating that the negative (positive) SAM phase is more frequent for easterly (westerly) QBO. However, this was not valid for all months. Some additional analysis suggested that the upward wave propagation to the stratosphere for each QBO phase changes the stratospheric jet and, consequently, the SAM phase.

Ozone‐Forced Southern Annular Mode During Antarctic Stratospheric Warming Events

AbstractSouthern Hemisphere (SH) Stratospheric Warming Events (SWEs) are usually associated with a negative phase of the tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the following summer. In contrast, using ensemble climate model simulations we show that the anomalously high ozone concentrations typically occurring during SWEs can force periods of persistent positive tropospheric SAM in austral spring by increasing lower stratospheric static stability and changing troposphere‐to‐stratosphere wave propagation. Eventually, the tropospheric SAM switches sign to its negative phase in late spring/early summer, but this ‘downward propagation’ of the stratospheric signal does not occur in simulations without seasonal cycle. We find that the downward propagation is forced both dynamically by adiabatic heating and radiatively by increased shortwave absorption by ozone due to the seasonal cycle. Capturing this ozone forcing mechanism in models requires the inclusion of interactive ozone, which has important implications for the predictive skill of current seasonal forecasting systems.

Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios.

Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a "ring-shape" regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period.

ENSO and SAM Influence on the Generation of Long Episodes of Rossby Wave Packets During Southern Hemisphere Summer

AbstractThis study assesses the impact of low‐frequency climate modes on Rossby Wave Packets (RWPs) during southern hemisphere summer. In particular, we focus on long‐lived RWPs (lifespan above 8 days) and determine how El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influence their statistics, that is, their duration, frequency of occurrence, and activity areas. We used daily mean meridional winds at 300 hPa from December to March between 1979 and 2020 from the ERA5 and NCEP‐DOE 2 reanalyses. We found that long‐lived wave packets, which are a small percentage of the total number of wave packets, show large interannual variability; there are years in which these types of waves do not occur and years that present up to 9 wave packets. This suggests that large‐scale circulation conditions set up by low‐frequency climate modes can modulate their occurrence. Classifying years according to SAM phases reveals that the occurrence of long‐lived RWPs is highest (lowest) during intense negative (positive) SAM events. ENSO influence, on the other hand, was found to be weak and not robust. Analysis of large scale circulation conditions shows that during negative SAM phases the jet shifts northward, strengthens in the Indian sector, and extends further into the Pacific basin, so that it acts as a better waveguide favoring the propagation of long‐lived RWPs. Conversely, during positive phases of SAM, the jet shifts southward and an anticyclonic center develops to the southwest of Australia blocking the jet and the progression of the wave packets.

Hemispheric Asymmetry in Future Wave Power Changes: Seasonality and Physical Mechanisms

AbstractThis study inspects the global changes in ocean wave power (WP) by the end of the 21st century, relative to the 1979–2005 period, focusing on seasonality and physical mechanisms. The multimodel ocean wave simulations from WAVEWATCH‐III, forced with surface winds simulated by seven different CMIP5 global climate models, are particularly examined. These models robustly show a hemispheric asymmetry in WP changes, that is, a decrease in the Northern Hemisphere but an increase in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with large seasonal and regional variations. Individual terms of differential WP, which include wave height and wave period changes, are analyzed to isolate the role of each process. Although wave height changes dominate the overall WP changes, wave period changes also play a comparable role in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics especially in the Indian Ocean sector during austral winter (12%). Wave period increase is strikingly higher in austral winter than summer, resembling swell height changes in the Southern Ocean. Intermodel correlation and composite analyses further indicate that the WP increase in the Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) trend. On the other hand, the WP decrease in the Northern Hemisphere is robustly related with weakened meridional surface temperature gradient during winter, a consequence of Arctic amplification. As a result, models with higher positive SAM trend and larger Arctic warming project stronger hemispheric asymmetries in WP changes.

The Imprint of the Southern Annular Mode on Black Carbon AOD in the Western Cape Province

This study examines the relationship between variations of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and black carbon (BC) at 550 nm aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Western Cape province (WC). Variations of the positive (negative) phase of the SAM are found to be related to regional circulation types (CTs) in southern Africa, associated with suppressed (enhanced) westerly wind over the WC through the southward (northward) migration of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude cyclones. The CTs related to positive (negative) SAM anomalies induce stable (unstable) atmospheric conditions over the southwestern regions of the WC, especially during the austral winter and autumn seasons. Through the control of CTs, positive (negative) SAM phases tend to contribute to the build-up (dispersion and dilution) of BC in the study region because they imply dry (wet) conditions which favor the build-up (washing out) of pollutant particles in the atmosphere. Indeed, recent years with an above-average frequency of CTs related to positive (negative) SAM anomalies are associated with a high (low) BC AOD over southwesternmost Africa.

A 350-year multiproxy record of climate-driven environmental shifts in the Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica

With a growing concern over rapid Antarctic ice loss in recent years, the Amundsen Sea, one of the fastest-melting areas in Antarctica, currently becomes a hotspot for the Earth sciences in the context of its linkage to global climate. As a center of strong physical and biological coupling processes, polynyas of the Amundsen Sea could act as sentinels of changes in atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions, offering a unique perspective into its sensitivity to climate variability. Here, we present a new, multiproxy-based high-resolution sedimentary record from the Amundsen Sea polynya, which provides new insights into environmental conditions of the region over the last 350 years and their linkages to climatic factors. Our results show that the polynya witnessed step-wise environmental shifts in parallel with the phases and strength of large-scale climate patterns, i.e., the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Notably, intersite correlation of on-shelf Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intrusion signals at different locals suggests that the CDW may have gained increased access to the shelves at the time of a strong coupling of positive SAM and El Niño states. We tentatively speculate that anomalous large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns over the Southern Hemisphere, forced by increasing greenhouse gas levels, were strongly involved in the mid-20 th century CDW invigoration, which may be greater in scale that goes well beyond the Amundsen Sea region. This result is relevant to the current debate on spatial heterogeneity in the timing and phasing of major climatic events in Antarctica, underscoring an unambiguous connection of the Antarctic climate state to the large-scale ocean–atmosphere reorganizations. Our study also extends a growing evidence that today's global warming trend is expected to have a severe effect on future configuration of Antarctic continental ice-shelf environment. • Sedimentary data capture major shifts in the Amundsen Sea polynya environment. • Stepwise environmental shifts are linked to large-scale climate variabilities. • The mid-20th century's continental-scale CDW increase under anthropogenic forcings. • Today's global warming trend may severely affect future configuration of Antarctica.

Climate anomalies influence tooth growth patterns of South American sea lions

AbstractEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indirectly affect tooth growth of marine mammals, through changes in prey abundance, availability, and composition. This is reflected as variation in the dentine deposition, which determines the formation of annual layers, called growth layer groups (GLGs). The aim of this work was to study potential effects of ENSO and SAM on South American sea lion (Otaria byronia) of Patagonia, by examining interannual variability of GLG width. Adapting dendrochronological techniques, we analyzed 97 individuals (60 females and 37 males) and built six chronologies (three for each sex) by using cubic splines with different rigidity. Chronologies were correlated with MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) and SAM index time series, considering lags in the biological response. The chronologies of females spanned 39 years and only two of these chronologies showed negative correlation with 1 year lagged SAM events. The chronologies of males spanned 23 years, but none showed significant correlation with these indexes. Our results did not indicate any ENSO effects on this species, while positive SAM events could reduce the abundance or availability of South American sea lion's prey, affecting the nutritional status of females and generating thinner GLGs during the next year.

Causes of the long-term variability of southwestern South America precipitation in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model

Southwestern South America (SWSA) has undergone frequent and persistent droughts in recent decades with severe impacts on water resources, and consequently, on socio-economic activities at a sub-continental scale. The local drying trend in this region has been associated with the expansion of the subtropical drylands over the last decades. It has been shown that SWSA precipitation is linked to large-scale dynamics modulated by internal climate variability and external forcing. This work aims at unravelling the causes of this long-term trend toward dryness in the context of the emerging climate change relying on a large set simulations of the state-of-the-art IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our results identify the leading role of dynamical changes induced by external forcings, over the local thermodynamical effects and teleconnections with internal global modes of sea surface temperature. Our findings show that the simulated long-term changes of SWSA precipitation are dominated by externally forced anomalous expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell (HC) and a persistent positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) trend since the late 1970s. Long-term changes in the HC extent and the SAM show strong co-linearity. They are attributable to stratospheric ozone depletion in austral spring-summer and increased atmospheric greenhouse gases all year round. Future ssp585 and ssp126 scenarios project a dominant role of anthropogenic forcings on the HC expansion and the subsequent SWSA drying, exceeding the threshold of extreme drought due to internal variability as soon as the 2040s, and suggest that these effects will persist until the end of the twenty-first century.

Zonally asymmetric phytoplankton response to the Southern annular mode in the marginal sea of the Southern ocean

Antarctic marine biological variability modulates climate systems via the biological pump. However, the knowledge of biological response in the Southern Ocean to climate variability still has been lack of understanding owing to limited ocean color data in the high latitude region. We investigated the surface chlorophyll concentration responses to the Southern annular mode (SAM) in the marginal sea of the Southern ocean using satellite observation and reanalysis data focusing on the austral summer. The positive phase of SAM is associated with enhanced and poleward-shifted westerly winds, leading to physical and biogeochemical responses over the Southern ocean. Our result indicates that chlorophyll has strong zonally asymmetric responses to SAM owing to different limiting factors of phytoplankton growth per region. For the positive SAM phase, chlorophyll tends to increase in the western Amundsen–Ross Sea but decreases in the D’Urville Sea. It is suggested that the distinct limiting factors are associated with the seasonal variability of sea ice and upwelling per region.

Interbasin Differences in Ocean Ventilation in Response to Variations in the Southern Annular Mode

AbstractThe response of the ventilation of mode and intermediate waters to abrupt changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is examined by analyzing the ideal age in a global ocean‐sea ice model. The age response is shown to differ between the central Pacific Ocean and other basins. In the central Pacific there are large decreases in the age of subtropical mode and intermediate waters associated with a more positive SAM, contrasting only small age changes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, except near where intermediate water density surfaces outcrop. These interbasin differences hold for simulations at different horizontal resolutions, and can be explained by the zonal variations in wind stress changes associated with the SAM. These results suggest that the carbon and heat uptake associated with the SAM will likely vary between ocean basins.

Disentangling the Influence of Three Major Threats on the Demography of an Albatross Community

Climate change, fisheries and invasive species represent three pervasive threats to seabirds, globally. Understanding the relative influence and compounding nature of marine and terrestrial threats on the demography of seabird communities is vital for evidence-based conservation. Using 20 years of capture-mark-recapture data from four sympatric species of albatross (black-browedThalassarche melanophris, gray-headedT. chrysostoma, light-mantledPhoebetria palpebrataand wanderingDiomedea exulans) at subantarctic Macquarie Island, we quantified the temporal variability in survival, breeding probability and success. In three species (excluding the wandering albatross because of their small population), we also assessed the influence of fisheries, oceanographic and terrestrial change on these rates. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) explained 20.87–29.38% of the temporal variability in survival in all three species and 22.72–28.60% in breeding success for black-browed and gray-headed albatross, with positive SAM events related to higher success. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index explained 21.14–44.04% of the variability in survival, with higher survival rates following La Niña events. For black-browed albatrosses, effort in south-west Atlantic longline fisheries had a negative relationship with survival and explained 22.75–32.21% of the variability. Whereas increased effort in New Zealand trawl fisheries were related to increases in survival, explaining 21.26–28.29 % of variability. The inclusion of terrestrial covariates, reflecting extreme rainfall events and rabbit-driven habitat degradation, explained greater variability in trends breeding probability than oceanographic or fisheries covariates for all three species. These results indicate managing drivers of demographic trends that are most easily controlled, such as fisheries and habitat degradation, will be a viable option for some species (e.g., black-browed albatross) but less effective for others (e.g., light-mantled albatross). Our results illustrate the need to integrate fisheries, oceanographic and terrestrial processes when assessing demographic variability and formulating the appropriate management response.