Variability in High Wave Energy Events Around the Southern African Coast

Abstract

AbstractThe wave energy flux along the southern African coastline often reaches extreme levels, seriously impacting coastal communities, infrastructure, as well as near‐coast and offshore marine operations. Understanding the drivers behind past high wave energy events and their frequency is key to forecasting future events. Using in‐situ wave buoy data recorded by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the ERA5 and CACWR global wave model products are evaluated. The better‐performing ERA5 product is used to assess long‐term variability and trends around the coastline between 1979 and 2020. There are significant increasing trends in offshore flux for all seasons, with spring having the strongest coastal trends. Substantial interannual variability exists in wave energy flux and direction. Possible drivers, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the semi‐annual oscillation (SAO), were assessed to find that SAM appears to show the strongest relationship overall. Negative (positive) SAM is associated with above (below) average and westerly (easterly) anomalies in both flux and direction. ENSO directly impacts the summer wave climate while the SAO indirectly impacts the wave energy flux over spring and winter. During many seasons, more than one climate mode is active. It is found the strongest significant near‐coast positive westerly anomalies occurred under negative SAM and negative SAO, with more intense offshore anomalies under El Niño, whereas the strongest significant negative east‐northeasterly anomalies occurred under a combination of La Niña with positive SAM and SAO phases.