Illinois Population Research Articles

Activity patterns of a synanthropic population of the brown recluse spider,Loxosceles reclusa(Araneae: Sicariidae), with observations on feeding and mating

Abstract I recorded diel and seasonal activity patterns and behavior of the brown recluse spider, Loxosceles reclusa Gertsch & Mulaik 1940 in a free-ranging synanthropic population in northwestern Illinois. Recluse spiders are sit-and-wait predators that spend 85–90% of their nocturnal activity sitting motionless on a small network of silk they use for prey detection. Time not spent waiting for prey is typically occupied maintaining the web by laying down new strands of silk. Feeding and sexual behavior constitute a minute, but critical, portion of daily activity. Recluses were more active at night, but some were active during the day, especially in darker areas of the garage. Activity was relatively constant during the nocturnal hours. Recluse spiders became active in early to mid-May and ceased in mid-October. Beyond this, there was no consistent pattern observed in activity through these months. Sexual encounters were typically brief and similar to behavior reported in prior lab studies. Agonism was ra...

America's deadliest twister: the tri-state tornado of 1925

Disaster relief as we know it did not exist when the deadliest tornado in U.S. history gouged a path from southeast Missouri through southern Illinois and into southwestern Indiana. The tri-state tornado of 1925 hugged the ground for 219 miles, generated wind speeds in excess of 300 miles per hour, and killed 695 people. Drawing on survivor interviews, public records, and newspaper archives, America s Deadliest Twister offers a detailed account of the storm, but more important, it describes life in the region at that time as well as the tornado s lasting cultural impact, especially on southern Illinois.Author Geoff Partlow follows the storm from town to town, introducing us to the people most affected by the tornado, including the African American population of southern Illinois. Their narratives, along with the stories of the heroes who led recovery efforts in the years following, add a hometown perspective to the account of the storm itself.In the discussion of the aftermath of the tornado, Partlow examines the lasting social and economic scars in the area, but he also looks at some of the technological firsts associated with this devastating tragedy. Partlow shows how relief efforts in the region began to change the way people throughout the nation thought about disaster relief, which led to the unified responses we are familiar with today. 2015 ISHS Certificate of Excellence

The reproductive ecology ofMononeuria patula(Michx.) Dillenb. and Kadereit (Caryophyllaceae)1

Mononeuria patula (Michx.) Dillenb. and Kadereit (formally known as Minuartia patula; Caryophyllaceae) is a winter annual found in barrens, glades, rocky outcrops, and dolomite prairies of the eastern and central United States. This species is rare in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, and vulnerable in Kentucky, Missouri, and Virginia. In a two-year study we examined several aspects of the reproductive ecology of M. patula at five populations in northeastern Illinois. We used a combination of field-based studies (i.e., fruit set and seed set, breeding system, population size estimation), field observations (i.e., phenology), laboratory studies (i.e., seed germination, pollen:ovule ratio, floral morphometrics) and historical data (i.e., population size and weather data) to answer several questions: (1) What can data on the reproductive ecology of M. patula tell us about the species?; (2) Are there differences in reproductive output among populations of M. patula?; and (3) Can variation in the population size of M. patula be related to reproductive output and/or local weather patterns? Based on caging studies, flower phenology, and pollen to ovule ratio, M. patula can be considered a facultative autogamous species. Also, although significant differences were found among populations of M. patula for fruit set, seed set, and seed germination, fruit set was relatively high (above 60%), but seed set and seed germination were relatively low (less than 50%) regardless of the population. No correlation was found between population size and reproductive output or local weather data. The results of this study can be used to develop a conservation strategy for M. patula across its range in the U.S.

Climate Change Impacts on Seedling Establishment for a Threatened Endemic Thistle, Cirsium pitcheri

A study was conducted to assess the effects of predicted climate change on seedling emergence, growth, and survival for the federally listed threatened species Cirsium pitcheri in the region proximal to Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A. Three geographically distant extant populations that could potentially serve as donors to re- introduced Illinois populations were tested to determine the influence of local adaptation on seed response to climate scenarios at two future time points. For all three populations, temperature was shown to be the most critical factor impacting future growth. All populations performed worst at the 2095 temperature for four measured growth metrics: length of longest adult leaf, number of adult leaves, dry shoot mass, and dry root mass. Growth performance at the 2095 conditions did not correlate with climate familiarity but did reflect the genetic diversity of the parent population. Predicted changes in average precipitation did not produce a significant effect on any growth metric, possibly reflecting a limitation in the study conditions. Seedling emergence and survival were tied to seed mass, a trait influenced by maternal effects and correlated with the level of inbreeding depression in the parent population. These results suggest managing populations to maintain high genetic diversity could be an important factor in tolerating temperature stress associated with climate change.

Sex-selective Abortion Bans are Not Associated with Changes in Sex Ratios at Birth among Asian Populations in Illinois and Pennsylvania.

Legal prohibitions on sex-selective abortions are proliferating in the United States. Eight state legislatures have banned abortions sought on the basis of the sex of the fetus, 21 states have considered such laws since 2009, and a similar bill is pending in U.S. Congress. These laws have been introduced and enacted without any empirical data about their impact or effectiveness. Prior studies of U.S. Census data found sex ratios among foreign-born Chinese, Korean and Indian immigrants were skewed in favor of boys, but only in families where there were already one or two girls. Using the variation in the timing of bans in Illinois and Pennsylvania as natural experiments, we compare the pre-ban and post-ban sex ratios of certain Asian newborn children in these states over 12-year periods. We then compare these ratios with the sex ratios of Asian newborn children in neighboring states during the same period. We find that the bans in Illinois and Pennsylvania are not associated with any changes in sex ratios at birth among Asians. In Illinois and its neighboring states, the sex ratio at birth of Asian children was not male-biased during our study period. On the other hand, the sex ratio at birth among Asians in Pennsylvania and its neighboring states was skewed slightly in favor of boys, but the enactment of the ban did not normalize the sex ratio. This strongly suggests that sex-selective abortion bans have had no impact on the practice of sex selection, to the extent that it occurs, in these states. This finding is highly relevant to legislative and policy debates in the U.S. Congress and state legislatures where sex-selective abortion laws are being considered.

Abstract B95: Barriers to completion of a free colorectal cancer screening program in a low-income population

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cancer in the US. Screening is effective to prevent and detect CRC, but is underutilized in underserved populations. We assessed a free CRC screening program intended for the underserved population in central Illinois to determine what factors (demographics, medical history, risk factors, perceived barriers, rurality) prevented eligible patients from completing CRC screening. Methods: Potential participants were recruited to the Vince Demuzio Colorectal Screening Initiative via postcard mailing, media advertising and physician referral from July 2010 to June 2012. Interested participants called a toll-free number for an eligibility assessment, which required: being due for a CRC screening, age of 50-64 years, uninsured/underinsured, ≤250% of the federal poverty level, and residence in the 22 county (1 urban and 21 rural counties) catchment area. Eligible participants then completed a questionnaire via phone about their demographics, screening history, risk factors, and screening barriers, and were sent documents to sign for enrollment. Once signed documents were returned, patients chose to complete a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) or schedule a pre screening appointment and colonoscopy at 1 of 13 participating local hospitals. Analysis of 22 factors associated with screening was performed comparing residency (rural vs. urban) and screening completion (completers vs. non-completers) using Fisher's exact tests and independent t-tests. Results: There were 352 eligible participants, and they were: 86 % white, 57% female, 90% with at least a high school education, 60 % rural and 37 % current smokers. 245 participants (69.6%) completed CRC screenings (233 colonoscopies and 12 FOBTs). Ultimately, 107 (30.4%) eligible individuals did not complete screening due to the following: unreturned enrollment documents (54), loss to follow-up or withdrawal (44), did not return FOBT card (4) or were later deemed ineligible (5). Overall, rural participants were more likely than urban to be female (66.2% vs.44.4%, p<0.001), white (98.6% vs.68.3%, p<0.001), to have had a past blood stool test (25.8% vs. 9.4%, p=0.013) and to have a history of polyps (12.9% vs. 4.9%, p=0.016). Screening completion rates did not differ between urban and rural participants (65.5 % vs. 72.4%, p=0.19). The only factor significantly different between completers (C) and non-completers (NC) was report of a past blood stool test (42.4% vs. 29.9%, p=0.03), and among those reporting a past test, having a test within the past year (23.1% vs. 7.5%; p=0.04). Rural NC were more likely to note fear of discomfort as a barrier than urban NC (28.6% vs. 10.6%; p=0.03). There were no other significant differences at these stratifications. Conclusions: Despite meeting eligibility criteria, roughly a third of interested patients did not receive CRC screening. Rural NC differed from urban NC. Rural NC were more often female, white (anticipated in rural Illinois) and reported procedure discomfort as a screening barrier. However, most examined patient-related factors did not differ between groups and stratifications. Patient anecdotes indicated that more efficient processes, such as reduction in enrollment and screening steps and assistance with scheduling, may improve completion rates. Also, efforts should be made to both address gender and race differences that might impact screening in rural populations and develop better survey tools to identify screening barriers. Citation Format: Whitney Zahnd, David Steward, Wiley Jenkins, Jennifer Andoh, Georgia Mueller, Sandra Puczynski. Barriers to completion of a free colorectal cancer screening program in a low-income population. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Sixth AACR Conference: The Science of Cancer Health Disparities; Dec 6–9, 2013; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2014;23(11 Suppl):Abstract nr B95. doi:10.1158/1538-7755.DISP13-B95

Genetic factors accelerate demographic decline in rare Asclepias species

We investigated the role of genetic, reproductive and demographic factors in the decline of two co-occurring milkweeds, Asclepias lanuginosa and A. viridiflora, in fragmented populations in Illinois and Wisconsin. Asclepias lanuginosa flowers but does not set seed while seed set is regularly observed in A. viridiflora. We used microsatellite genotyping to determine the extent of clonal growth, genetic diversity, and genetic structure in nine populations of A. lanuginosa and five populations of A. viridiflora. Microsatellite genotyping revealed extremely high clonality in A. lanuginosa; only 32 multilocus genotypes occurred among more than 300 ramets, compared to 118 multilocus genotypes among 124 ramets for A. viridiflora. Four A. lanuginosa populations were monoclonal. While we found no evidence for inbreeding, A. lanuginosa had significantly lower expected heterozygosity and a lower mean number of effective alleles than A. viridiflora. Population viability analysis (PVA) conducted at one site indicated a high probability of persistence, although the population was comprised of only two clones. Because PVA does not distinguish between ramets and genets, results should be interpreted with caution when conducted on highly clonal species. A nearly complete shift in the mode of reproduction, from sexual to asexual, appears to be the most immediate threat to survival of A. lanuginosa in these fragmented prairie remnants. Conservation management strategies should include actions to increase clonal diversity in remnant populations.

Increased Renal Cell Carcinoma Incidence in Rural Illinois Populations

Increased Renal Cell Carcinoma Incidence in Rural Illinois Populations

Mammography‐Seeking Practices of Central Illinois Amish Women

Poster Presentation Objective To explore possible explanations for differences in mammography rates between Amish women in Arthur, Illinois, and other populations. Design In this cross‐sectional study, primary data were collected through a mail questionnaire focusing on breast cancer history, mammography‐seeking practices, and beliefs surrounding breast health. Setting Arthur is a small, rural community in central Illinois. Though most residents are Amish, the Arthur Amish community expands beyond the Arthur city limits into several other small, neighboring towns, including Arcola, Atwood, Humboldt, Lovington, Sullivan, and Tuscola, Illinois. Sample Female members of the Arthur, Illinois, Amish community ( N = 143), aged 40 to 70. Methods Data were collected from this unique, socially isolated group through a mail questionnaire. Sample mammography adherence and rates of ever having a mammogram were compared with the general population and other U.S. Amish communities. Results Logistic regression on the ever having a mammogram variable showed that compared to those who did not have knowledge of screening guidelines, Amish women with knowledge of screening guidelines had an odds ratio (OR) of 5.26 (confidence interval [CI] 1.79‐15.45) for mammography screening compared to those without that knowledge. Participants who believed nutrition/diet causes breast cancer had an OR of 4.27 (CI 1.39‐13.11) for mammography, and those who believed physical injury causes breast cancer had an OR of 3.86 (CI 1.24‐12.04) compared to women who do not hold these beliefs. Conclusion/Implications for Nursing Practice Pre‐existing research and data from this study indicate that rates of mammography in Amish women and ideas about mammography lag far behind the rest of the U.S. population. Future research is needed to confirm these results and further explore the role of nurses in providing outreach and education to Amish women regarding the benefits of mammography and breast cancer risk.

Trends in Management of Adnexal Masses in the Pediatric/Adolescent Population of Central Illinois

The surgical management of benign adnexal masses may range from simple cystectomy to salpingo-oophorectomy. Ovarian sparing procedures are preferred for children and adolescents to protect their future reproductive potential. The goal of this study was to determine clinical variables and patient demographics associated with ovarian sparing surgery in the adolescent female population and whether minimally invasive procedures have resulted in higher salvage rates of healthy ovarian tissue.

Sex-Selective Abortion Bans are Not Associated with Changes in Sex Ratios at Birth Among Asian Populations in Illinois and Pennsylvania

Legal prohibitions on sex-selective abortions are proliferating in the United States. Eight state legislatures have banned abortions sought on the basis of the sex of the fetus, 21 states have considered such laws since 2009, and a similar bill is pending in U.S. Congress. These laws have been introduced and enacted without any empirical data about their impact or effectiveness. Prior studies of U.S. Census data found sex ratios among foreign-born Chinese, Korean and Indian immigrants were skewed in favor of boys, but only in families where there were already one or two girls. Using the variation in the timing of bans in Illinois and Pennsylvania as natural experiments, we compare the pre-ban and post-ban sex ratios of certain Asian newborn children in these states over 12-year periods. We then compare these ratios with the sex ratios of Asian newborn children in neighboring states during the same period. We find that the bans in Illinois and Pennsylvania are not associated with any changes in sex ratios at birth among Asians. In Illinois and its neighboring states, the sex ratio at birth of Asian children was not male-biased during our study period. On the other hand, the sex ratio at birth among Asians in Pennsylvania and its neighboring states was skewed slightly in favor of boys, but the enactment of the ban did not normalize the sex ratio. This strongly suggests that sex-selective abortion bans have had no impact on the practice of sex selection, to the extent that it occurs, in these states. This finding is highly relevant to legislative and policy debates in the U.S. Congress and state legislatures where sex-selective abortion laws are being considered.

Multiple Resistance to Herbicides from Four Site-of-Action Groups in Waterhemp (Amaranthus tuberculatus)

In 2006 and 2007, farmers from two counties in Illinois reported failure to control waterhemp with glyphosate. Subsequent onsite field experiments revealed that the populations might be resistant to multiple herbicides. Greenhouse experiments therefore were conducted to confirm glyphosate resistance, and to test for multiple resistance to other herbicides, including atrazine, acifluorfen, lactofen, and imazamox. In glyphosate dose-response experiments, both populations responded similarly to a previously characterized glyphosate-resistant population (MO1). Both Illinois populations also demonstrated high frequencies of resistance to the acetolactate synthase (ALS) inhibitor, imazamox. Additionally, one of the populations demonstrated high frequencies of resistance to both atrazine and the protoporphyrinogen oxidase (PPO) inhibitor, lactofen. Furthermore, using combinations of sequential and tank-mix herbicide applications, individual plants resistant to herbicides spanning all four site-of-action groups were identified from one population. Molecular experiments were performed to provide an initial characterization of the resistance mechanisms and to provide confirmation of the presence of multiple resistance traits within the two populations. Both populations contained the W574L ALS mutation and the ΔG210 PPO mutation, previously shown to confer resistance to ALS and PPO inhibitors, respectively. Atrazine resistance in both populations is suspected to be metabolism-based, because a triazine target-site mutation was not identified. A P106S EPSPS mutation, previously reported to confer glyphosate resistance, was identified in one population. This mutation was identified in both resistant and sensitive plants from the population; however, and so more research is needed to determine the glyphosate-resistance mechanism(s). This is the first known case of a weed population in the United States possessing multiple resistance to herbicides from four site-of-action groups.

New Species and New Records of Springtails (Hexapoda: Collembola) from Caves in the Salem Plateau of Illinois, USA

The springtail (Hexapoda: Collembola) fauna of eight caves (Wizard Cave, Pautler Cave, Spider Cave, Wanda's Waterfall Cave, Illinois Caverns, Stemler Cave, Hidden Hand Cave, and Bat Sump Cave) in the Salem Plateau of southwestern Illinois (Monroe and St. Clair counties) was surveyed in 2009 using a combination of methods, including pitfall traps, Berlese-funnel processing of litter, and hand collections by quadrat, on drip pools, free standing bait, and random locations. In total, forty-nine species of springtails were found. Four are described as new to science (Onychiurus pipistrellae n. sp., Pygmarrhopalites fransjanssens n. sp, P. incantator n. sp, and P. salemensis n. sp), four may represent new species but there is insufficient material available to prepare full descriptions (two species in the genus Superodontella, one in Pseudachorutes, one in Sminthurides), and three others (Ceratophysella cf. brevis, C. cf. lucifuga, and Folsomia cf. bisetosa) are identified to species, but differences from the nominal species suggest further studies may indicate the Illinois populations represent distinct forms. In addition, five other species represent new records for Illinois, and eighteen are new cave records for the species in North America. The new records more than double the number of springtails species known from caves in the Salem Plateau region. More than half (twenty-nine) of the species reported are ranked as rare (S1-S2) at the state level. The total number of springtail species in Salem Plateau caves could be more than twice what is recorded in the present study, and more new species and state records should be found when caves in other Illinois karst regions are more thoroughly examined.

Population genetics of Blanding’s turtle (Emys blandingii) in the midwestern United States

Blanding’s turtle (Emys blandingii) has declined substantially in North America due to anthropogenic activities, leaving populations smaller and increasingly fragmented spatially. We sampled 212 turtles to evaluate variation at eight microsatellite loci within and among 18 populations of E. blandingii across its primary range in the midwestern United States (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska). All loci and populations were highly polymorphic. Our analyses also detected considerable genetic structure within and among the sampled localities, and revealed ancestral gene flow of E. blandingii in this region north and east from an ancient refugium in the central Great Plains, concordant with post-glacial recolonization timescales. The data further implied unexpected ‘links’ between geographically disparate populations in Nebraska and Illinois. Our study encourages conservation decisions to be mindful of the genetic uniqueness of populations of E. blandingii across its primary range.

Aging Population in a Regional Economy

This article seeks to examine the effects of the aging population in Illinois with inclusion of the household’s heterogeneity across migration status and investment in human capital. By adopting a stylized Mincer wage regression, the article shows that there are significant gaps in returns to education between migration statuses in Illinois; further, there exist significant relationships between a resident’s demographics and the probability of in- and out-migration to/from Illinois. Using a two-sector Overlapping Generations (OLG) model incorporated with the household’s heterogeneity over migration status, this article projects the economic growth of Illinois in the future. This article also shows that the effects of the government’s immigration policy that aims at replacing low-productive international immigrants with native and relatively high-productive unemployed individuals who have been unemployed, are very limited in terms of per capita income, welfare, and aggregate productivity. On the contrary, a tax and transfer policy inducing international immigrants to invest more in their education works relatively better under the demographic changes facing Illinois over the next three decades.

Seed Set in Prairie Cordgrass

ABSTRACTPrairie cordgrass (Spartina pectinata Link) has potential for biofuel production in soils too wet for switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). However, poor seed set is a major impediment to seed production in this species. Our objectives were to (i) estimate frequency of seed set (i.e., normal caryopsis in spikelet) and seed predation by insects and (ii) partition variance for seed set into environmental and morphological sources for a population of prairie cordgrass selected for biofuel production. During 2005 through 2011, panicles were collected from nurseries of the selected population in South Dakota and Illinois. Seed set was 79% for 1‐ and 2‐yr‐old stands indicating neither poor seed set or seed predation, which ranged from 0 to 15%, by Aethes spartinana (Barnes & McDunnough) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) seriously limited seed production. Most of the variation in seed set could be accounted for by variation among and within panicles within nurseries. Spikes in the distal two‐thirds of the panicle had higher seed set and lower seed predation than those in the proximal one‐third. However, variance between spikes from similar panicle positions accounted for more of the variation in seed set than any other spatial or morphological source. Therefore, increased understanding of seed set, which is subject to environmental vagaries from heading through seed development, will require sampling emphasis at the spikes within panicles and spikelets within spikes levels.

Inbreeding depression and partitioning of genetic load in the invasive biennial Alliaria petiolata (Brassicaceae)

Invasive species are nonnative species that enter novel environments, establish sustained populations, and can negatively impact native species. Here we assess a potential weakness of invasive species (genetic load) and show how species might overcome genetic barriers. Colonization of novel habitats by invasive species typically involves few individuals, exposing populations to founder effects. We empirically tested a central Illinois population of an invasive biennial plant, Alliaria petiolata, for evidence of a founder effect by assessing the pattern of genetic load. • To estimate genetic load, we assayed offspring from three cross types (self-pollinated, outcrossed within- and between-populations) in a greenhouse. Vegetative and reproductive traits were measured on first-year plants grown with or without intraspecific competition. • We found substantial genetic load in this population of A. petiolata, which can mostly be attributed to genetic drift (founder effect) and not inbreeding depression. Between-population heterosis was expressed more than inbreeding depression under intraspecific competition. • Inbreeding may be adaptive for A. petiolata in its introduced range by providing reproductive assurance, with limited inbreeding load. Nevertheless, most of the genetic load in this population of A. petiolata is due to fixation of deleterious alleles. Drift load is expected, given that this population is near the edge of its continuous geographic range in highly fragmented habitats, and gene flow between isolated populations is likely highly limited. Preventing additional introduction and movement of propagules between isolated local populations should reduce heterosis and A. petiolata competitiveness.

Does shade cover availability limit nest-site choice in two populations of a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination?

Shifts in resource use may be an important mechanism by which organisms can adjust to novel environmental conditions, such as those imposed by climate change. However, for such shifts to be possible, environmental space must exist into which organisms can move. Habitat that ensures successful survival and reproduction is one such critical resource. We studied resource selection of shade cover over nest sites by painted turtles in populations in Illinois (center of range) and New Mexico (southern edge of range). We targeted this habitat feature because shade can influence hatching success and offspring phenotype (including sex in the study species) by affecting nest microenvironments. We found that while turtles in both populations selected nest sites that were shadier than average available sites, overall resource selection differed between the populations. This disparity may have been due to differences in structure of vegetation that provides shade at each site, because areas with high shade cover in New Mexico (low dense thickets) were much more difficult for turtles to access than those in Illinois (dense tree canopy cover). Further, shade cover predicted different parameters of incubation regime at each site, suggesting that turtles must assess dissimilar components of shade cover in order to choose nest sites and predict their future incubation regimes. Our results suggest that shade cover within nesting areas is a key component of painted turtle habitat, and that accessible, highly-shaded nest sites may be limited at the New Mexico site. Maintaining a range of shade cover from which turtles can select nest sites would permit plasticity in nest-site choice to be expressed, which may be important in preventing sex ratio skews due to climate change.

Disproportionality in Illinois Child Welfare: The Need for Improved Substance Abuse Services

In 2007, African Americans children made up 19% of the population in Illinois yet they made up 59% of the population of children in foster care. They make up 34% of subjects of maltreatment investigations. This study examines community characteristics as determinants of the number of African American children that are in foster care and come from some of the 77 community areas in the city of Chicago. Of the hypothesized relations to the dependent variable-ward of the state-concentrated poverty as operationalized was positively related and statically significant. Other poverty indicators were not in the posited direction nor statistically significant. The level of education attainment was inversely related and statistically significant. The presence of African Americans in specific communities was positively related to foster care placement in Illinois. The adequacy of substance abuse service to the very poor population is also considered.

The importance of space, time, and stochasticity to the demography and management ofAlliaria petiolata

As population modeling is increasingly called upon to guide policy and management, it is important that we understand not only the central tendencies of our study systems, but the consequences of their variation in space and time as well. The invasive plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is actively managed in the United States and is the focus of a developing biological control program. Two weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Ceutorhynchus) that reduce fecundity (C. alliariae) and rosette survival plus fecundity (C. scrobicollis) are under consideration for release pending host specificity testing. We used a demographic modeling approach to (1) quantify variability in A. petiolata growth and vital rates and (2) assess the potential for single- or multiple-agent biocontrol to suppress growth of 12 A. petiolata populations in Illinois and Michigan studied over three plant generations. We used perturbation analyses and simulation models with stochastic environments to estimate stochastic growth rates (λS) and predict the probability of successful management using either a single biocontrol agent or two agent species together. Not all populations exhibited invasive dynamics. Estimates of λS ranged from 0.78 to 2.21 across sites, while annual, deterministic growth (λ) varied up to sevenfold within individual sites. Given our knowledge of the biocontrol agents, this analysis suggests that C. scrobicollis alone may control A. petiolata at up to 63% of our study sites where λS > 1, with the combination of both agents predicted to succeed at 88% of sites. Across sites and years, the elasticity rankings were dependent on λ. Reductions of rosette survival, fecundity, or germination of new seeds are predicted to cause the greatest reduction of λ in growing populations. In declining populations, transitions affecting seed bank survival have the greatest effect on λ. This contrasts with past analyses that varied parameters individually in an otherwise constant matrix, which may yield unrealistic predictions by decoupling natural parameter covariances. Overall, comparisons of stochastic and deterministic growth rates illustrate how analyses of individual populations or years could misguide management or fail to characterize complex traits such as invasiveness that emerge as attributes of populations rather than species.