The demographic characteristics of the population of Madrid, with a steady increase in immigrants, from 4.7% in 1998 to 17.4% in 2007, provide an opportunity to study in depth the transmission of TB. Our aim was to compare two 3-year longitudinal molecular studies of TB to define transmission patterns and predictors of clustering. Two prospective population-based molecular and epidemiological studies (2002–2004 and 2005–2007) of TB patients were conducted in nine urban districts in Madrid using the same methodology. During the period 2002–2007, 2248 cases of TB were reported, and the incidence decreased from 23.5 per 100 000 in 2002 to 20.8 in 2007 (p <0.001). A total of 1269 isolates were molecularly characterized and included in the study. The comparison between the two periods showed that the percentage of foreign-born patients among TB cases increased from 36.2% to 45.7% (p <0.001). Furthermore, the percentage of clustered cases decreased (36.6% vs. 30.6%; p 0.028), and this decline was associated with a decrease of clustered cases among men and people under 35 years. We also observed a decrease in cases belonging to clusters containing >6 people (14.2% vs. 8.2%; p <0.001), and in cases belonging to mixed clusters containing Spanish-born and foreign-born patients (18.5% vs. 11.1%, p <0.001). Our molecular epidemiology study provides clues to interpret the decrease in the incidence of TB in a context of steady increase of immigration. In our region, the decrease in the incidence of TB can be explained predominantly as a result of a decline in recent transmission.