Population Forecasts Research Articles

Forecasting of Cohort Fertility Under a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

SummaryFertility projections are a key determinant of population forecasts, which are widely used by government policy makers and planners. In keeping with the recent literature, we propose an intuitive and transparent hierarchical Bayesian model to forecast cohort fertility. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods and a data set from the human fertility database, we obtain fertility forecasts for 30 countries. We use scoring rules to assess the predictive accuracy of the forecasts quantitatively; these indicate that our model predicts with an accuracy comparable with that of the best-performing models in the current literature overall, with stronger performance for countries without a recent structural shift. Our findings support the position of hierarchical Bayesian modelling at the forefront of population forecasting methods.

Article of KDBK in English 20 The Advancement of Demographics Learning Tools

This study is aimed at producing a learning tools to a lecturing program in form of : lectures unit (SAP), Lecturing Text Books (BTPM), and Demography lecturing attendant activity sheet (LKPDM), and the ability assessment of attendant program (PKHPM) it is all in order to ensure demography subject be more valid, practical, and effective with in a learning model aided with Think, Pair and Share (TPS) and data based. 
 The teaching material matter to Demography Techniques subject to develop such as; Introduction, base source of statistics, collecting and data processing of demographic, size population, population distribution of geographic region, population distribution of geographic area, the age composition and gender, composition of race and ethnic, change of population, education and characteristics of economic, mortality, life table, demography of health, birth-rate bases to census and survey, population growth, international migration, internal migration and short-time mobility, and population forecast. 
 The process how to implement perhaps prepare an attending tools component either : to plan an attendant unit (SAP), attendance book of demographic (BBKD), and attendance activity sheet (LKPM), and ability test of Demographic study (TKHPD), and ability assessment of attendant program (PKHPM) to be distributed over all Lecturers Team on Mathematics Department of FMIPA Unimed.

Evaluation and Selection of Technologies Improving the Quality of Life of Older People

Purpose: According to the UN population forecast by the year 2030 people aged 65 years and over will have made up 11.67% of the world's total population and 22.97% of the European population. So, in less than 10 years, almost every fourth Pole will be over 65 years old. It, therefore, seems necessary to examine how health, life and consumption needs of older people can be met and which technologies can improve the quality of life of older people. The main aim of the article is to identify, evaluate and build a ranking of gerontechnologies – technologies improving the quality of life of older people. The article also examines the influence of gender, age, education, and place of residence on the evaluation of gerontechnology groups. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research was carried out with critical literature analysis, logical construct method as well as statistical research. A survey was conducted with the use of CATI and CAWI in the period December 2019 to January 2020 on a representative group of poles aged over 40 years old. Findings: The research assessed and ranked nine main groups of technologies improving the quality of life of older people. The impact of gender, age, education, and place of residence on the assessment of these technologies was also examined. Practical Implications: Identification of the highest-rated technology improving the quality of life of older people. Originality/Value: To gain new knowledge in identifying the needs and expectations of future and current users of technologies that improve the quality of life of older people.

A DSA Algorithm for Mortality Forecasting

Borrowing information from populations with similar structural mortality patterns and trajectories has been well recognized as a useful strategy for the mortality forecasting of a target population. This paper presents a flexible framework for the selection of populations from a given candidate pool to assist a target population in mortality forecasting. The defining feature of the framework is the deletion-substitution-addition (DSA) algorithm, which is entirely data-driven and versatile to work with any multiple-population model for mortality prediction. In numerical studies, the framework with an extended augmented common factor model is applied to the Human Mortality Database, and the superiority of the proposed framework is evident in mortality forecasting performance.

Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis

ObjectiveWe examined the effects of age, gender, and ethnicity on the risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and end-stage renal disease according to type 2 diabetes mellitus status among adults...

Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?

Theoretical studies suggest that temporal covariation among and temporal autocorrelation within demographic rates are important features of population dynamics. Yet, empirical studies have rarely focused on temporal covariation and autocorrelation limiting our understanding of these patterns in natural populations. This lack of knowledge restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics and to make reliable population forecasts. In order to fill this gap, we used a long‐term monitoring (15 years) of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population to investigate covariation and autocorrelation in survival and reproduction at the population level and their impact on population dynamics. Using Bayesian joint analyses, we found support for positive covariation between survival and reproduction, but weak autocorrelation through time. This positive covariation was stronger in juveniles compared with adults. As expected for a specialized predator, we found that the reproductive performance was strongly related to an index of vole abundance explaining 86% of the temporal variation. This very strong relationship suggests that the temporally variable prey abundance may drive the positive covariation between survival and reproduction in this kestrel population. Simulations suggested that the observed effect size of covariation could be strong enough to affect population dynamics. More generally, positive covariation and autocorrelation have a destabilizing effect increasing substantially the temporal variability of population size.

Modelagem da geração de biogás aplicando metodologia CDM para redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa: estudo de caso do Aterro MTR Santa Maria Madalena, RJ, Brasil

A grande quantidade de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) emitida por ação antropogênica torna-se um desafio que requer iniciativas para a sua mitigação, como parcerias público-privadas. Nos países em desenvolvimento, essa questão é ainda mais problemática, pois o crescente desenvolvimento econômico não é acompanhado por legislação e iniciativas que regulam o metano liberado na atmosfera. Este trabalho tem como objetivo medir a redução de GEE, aplicando uma metodologia de projeto Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) a um aterro real. Os métodos utilizados foram um estudo de caso de um aterro sanitário no estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, com aplicação do modelo LandGem da United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) para o dimensionamento dos gases produzidos e, finalmente, análise de projetos CDM para definir uma metodologia que se aplica ao caso. Os resultados mostram que, com a simples implementação de flares no aterro, há uma grande redução das emissões de metano, mas ainda é necessário maior interesse do poder público e privado pela aplicação de metodologias de mitigação de gases. A principal limitação desta pesquisa é o fato de haver poucas publicações na área de metodologias de projetos CDM, e que os dados usados para dimensionar os gases no modelo LandGem foram estimados através de previsões de população e resíduos. Por fim, este estudo pode ser amplamente aplicado em aterros sanitários de diferentes localidades, não restritos ao Brasil.

Future Population Developments in Europe. Is the Concept of Convergence Indisputable? Towards the Role of Geographical Thinking in Population Forecasting

The paper summarizes (not exhaustively) opinions on the potential convergence and divergence of population developments in general and within Europe particularly. There is an attempt to answer the question, whether the convergence concept is irrefutable or not. We discuss the major geographical factors of future convergence/divergence. We also present the empirical demographic projection of the EU countries, which we see as a boundary from the viewpoint of possible convergence and divergence. This empirical evidence is quite a unique view on the boundaries among which the population developments are likely to go on in coming decades. Instead of the probabilistic approaches, we just model the potential extremes (total equalization and current differentiation) using the deterministic approach. We demonstrate what differences would be if given assumptions were actual. The simpler this approach, the more readable for decision makers. Further, we explicitly stress and present the role of geographical thinking in the regional forecasting. We see the key role of geography mainly in measuring and shaping of future inequalities with respect to the national and regional population developments. If Europe is perceived as a multi-regional demographical system of countries, a systematic geographical approach is an essential base for quality forecasts. Since demographers do not often deal with purely geographical and spatially oriented methods, the role of geography is irreplaceable in the process.

A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting – The Case of Germany

The future development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for most countries in Europe, urgently need adequate population forecasts to identify future problems regarding social security systems as one determinant of overall macroeconomic development. This contribution proposes a stochastic cohort-component model that uses simulation techniques based on stochastic models for fertility, migration and mortality to forecast the population by age and sex. We specifically focused on quantifying the uncertainty of future development as previous studies have tended to underestimate future risk.The model is applied to forecast the population of Germany until 2045. The results provide detailed insight into the future population structure, disaggregated into both sexes and age groups. Moreover, the uncertainty in the forecast is quantified as prediction intervals for each subgroup.

Population Forecasting by Population Growth Models based on MATLAB Simulation

Population forecasting is a necessary effort to understand population growth, which affects various aspects of a country’s society and economy, including future demand for food, water, energy, and services. Mathematical models are commonly used to understand the interplay of the migration, birth and death rates on population growth. Mathematical models help population forecasting by capturing statistical trends from historical datasets. However, these need to be carefully compared to understand the implications of different model formulations in predicting future population, which the models have not seen or were trained on. In this work, we have compared two common population growth models, namely Malthusian law and Logistic law, using US population data from 1951 to 2019. By formulating a least-squared curve fitting problem, the birth and death rates can be estimated using MATLAB software. MATLAB simulations showed that the Logistic law of population growth yields smaller sum of squared residuals than the Malthusian law. In this case, a better population model may be beneficial in the social science, such as political science and sociology.

Технологии прогнозной аналитики в борьбе с пандемией COVID‑19

Recently, a new coronavirus infection, or COVID‑19, caused by the pathogen SARS-CoV‑2, has been continuing to spread around the world rapidly. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), which declared this outbreak a pandemic, COVID‑19 is a serious public health problem of international concern. Due to the lack of proven effective treatment and vaccination against COVID‑19, precautions are considered by WHO to be strategic goals and a primary response to the pandemic. It is recommended that country guidelines adopt national health care programs aimed at assessing and reducing the risk of infection spread. Predictive analytics have begun to be actively used to compile population and personal forecasts of the progression of morbidity, mortality, assess the severity of the course of the disease, etc. This article provides an overview of available developments and publications on the use of predictive analytics in the management of COVID‑19 pandemic.

Perspectives of the tourism development in terms of water crisis (case study of Iran)

The objectives of this paper are to clarify how valuable natural resources associated with tourism industry are; to assess efficiency of the relation between water resources and sustainable development of tourism industry; to promote ecofriendly skills of visitors in order to have an interactive relationship with tourism assets; to maximize economic, social and environmental benefits for both local communities and tourists; to find out the value of Iran’s experience with tourism development with conservation of natural resources for other countries, in particular for Ukraine. Methodology. The research used statistical methods (based on the goals declared in the 20YPPT & SDP plans, Iranian population forecasts, the number of international and domestic tourists in the country is determined before 2025, the amount of water needed for the tourism sector is calculated according to statistics, the amount of available water per capita is calculated and its rate of decline is specified, the volume of water for the domestic sector and necessary for tourists is determined), the study of documents and interviews with experts within Delphi regarding the method of systematic sampling. Results. The authors calculated the predicted values of the influx of foreign and domestic tourists for the period of 2016-2025 based on goals declared in 20YPPT & SDP plans, Iranian population forecasts. Therefore, 7.8 million foreign and 51 million domestic tourists were expected in 2016, and 27.95 million and 53.5 million, respectively in 2025. The volumes of water consumption in the tourism sector are predicted in three scenarios: water use is stable and the same with local residents; water use is twice as much as that of local residents; water use is in parallel with global demand growth rates of 4-8% per year. According to the first scenario, the share of the tourism sector in water use will increase from 6.15% to 19.5%, according to the second one – from 19.1 to 69% and according to the third one – from 7.1% to 37.1%. The first scenario is defined as optimal, the second one is identified as crisis, and the third is considered. The average amount of water required for the tourism sector, taking into account unaccounted water (from 0.53 billion cubic meters in 2016 to 1.24 billion cubic meters in 2025) was also determined. Scientific novelty. In the study, based on 20YPIT and SDP plans, the volume of tourist flows in Iran was predicted, the volume of water consumption in the tourism sector in Iran was predicted in three scenarios, and a conceptual model of the consequences of unplanned water management in Iran’s tourism for 2016-2025 was developed. Practical significance. This study explains the nature of the impact of the tourism sector on water resources until 2025, determines the exact amount of water that tourists may need in these years, which makes it possible to make effective decisions by identifying weaknesses and opportunities.

Seniorzy w miastach i analiza miast przyjaznych seniorom dla wybranych miast polskich – odporne podejście taksonomiczne

The purpose of the article is to assess selected large cities in Poland as senior-friendly. Using the municipal population forecast for 2017-2030 published in 2017, together with the available database, own analyses were made for selected cities in Poland. Additionally for the description of ‘senior-friendly’ cities, it was assumed that the starting point is the WHO definition, which indicated four main criteria determining whether a given city can be considered to be friendly to the elderly. In a city friendly to seniors, the principles, services, environment and structures built up support the active ageing process and avail it for the residents. For the purposes of the research, taking into account the above objectives and based on published sources, a descriptive model was created. The study assessed selected Polish cities as senior-friendly cities, using the robust taxonomic approach.

Население Дальневосточного федерального округа: реалии и перспективы

The paper analyzes the current demographic development of the Russian Far East. It shows the nature of the population change in the region (taking into account the Republic of Buryatia and the TRANS-Baikal territory that were included in the FEFD in 2018) in urban and rural areas. The article presents the population dynamics for the administrative centers of the Far Eastern regions and reveals their role in changing the urban population in the corresponding regions of the Far East. The data of three variants of the population forecast in the Far Eastern region are presented and the assumption is made about the possibility of the achievement of corresponding indicators

HIV / AIDS as a Threat to the Demographic Securiy of the Region

The Object of the Study. The territory of the Ural Federal Okrug with HIV infection spread.The Subject of the Study. The socioeconomic relations between the executive and the health system at all levels that arises about the fixation, diagnosis, prevention of HIV infection The Purpose of the Study is critical diagnosing the state of the territory to predict the number of able-bodied population of the region, taking into account socially significant medical factors (incidence of HIV infection).The Main Provisions of the Article. Fertility decline, population aging, mortality have a directly impact on the demographic situation in the Urals Federal Okrug. Population projections are taking into account different socio-economic trends should precede the development of demographic policies. Currently, in most subjects of the Ural Federal Okrug, the number of elderly people is increasing, the number of people of working age is decreasing and, accordingly, the demographic load on the working population is increasing. In the framework of this study, the calculation of demographic security of the Ural Federal Okrug and a model of the influence of various socio-economic factors on it is proposed. It is shown that the level of demographic security for a number of regions included in the Ural Federal Okrug began to decline in 2015 and strive to get out of the normal state. On the basis of the offered model one of the factors influencing demographic safety – HIV infection and AIDS is chosen. The calculation of the medical and demographic forecast of the able-bodied population, are taking into account the impact of HIV infection. Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions are among the leaders in the number of HIV-infected people, in some regions we are talking about an epidemic. This disease is characterized by a long latent period, the defeat, mainly young people of working age, the high cost of treatment, the lack of reliable methods of treatment and vaccination. The mathematical model allowing to consider influence of HIV infection on change of population of working age is constructed, calculations for Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan Regions have been carried out. Comparison of forecast values with and without adjustment for HIV/AIDS factors shows a significant impact of the disease on the demographic picture of the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions.

Forecasting the Sri Lankan Population with the Gompertz and Verhulst Logistic Growth Models

Population growth is one of the major problems in the world. The population forecast is predicted by each and every country from an early age. Further, the population growth and the size of the country are major factors which affect its economy and policies. Hence, it has emphasized the importance of predicting the future population of Sri Lanka. Therefore, this study mainly focuses on proposing population growth models to predict the population growth of Sri Lanka. The Verhulst logistic growth model and the Gompertz growth model are used to predict the population of Sri Lanka using population data from the census population and the mid-year population, the birth rate and the death rate obtained from the Department of Registrar General of Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2018. The explicit solutions for each model are derived by using mathematical techniques of differentiation and integration. The carrying capacity; i.e., the maximum number of the population an environment can support, indefinitely was calculated using the two models. The percentages of Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation (MAPD) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) were calculated to measure the prediction accuracy between the actual data and the predicted data of the proposed models. Then the Sri Lankan population from 2019 to 2048 was predicted using the proposed models. Results show the prediction accuracy of Gompertz model to be higher compared to the one of Verhulst logistic growth model. This study provides a deep insight into the population prediction in Sri Lanka, a country with limited resources, and in an area teeming with conflicts.

The Shelf Life of Official Sub-National Population Forecasts in England

We measure the empirical distribution of the accuracy of projected population in sub-national areas of England, developing the concept of ‘shelf life’: the furthest horizon for which the subsequent best estimate of population is within 10% of the forecast, for at least 80% of areas projected. Since local government reorganisation in 1974, the official statistics agency has projected the population of each local government area in England: for 108 areas in nine forecasts up to the 1993-based, and for over 300 areas in 10 forecasts from the 1996-based to the 2014-based forecasts. By comparing the published forecast (we use this term rather than projection) with the post-census population estimates, the empirical distribution of errors has been described. It is particularly dependent on the forecast horizon and the type of local authority. For 10-year forecasts the median absolute percentage error has been 7% for London Boroughs and 3% for Shire Districts. Users of forecasts tend to have in mind a horizon and a required accuracy that is of relevance to their application. A shelf life of 10 years is not sufficient if the user required that accuracy of a forecast 15 years ahead. The relevant effective shelf life deducts the user’s horizon. We explore the empirical performance of official sub-national forecasts in this light. A five-year forecast for London Boroughs requiring 10% accuracy is already beyond its effective shelf life by the time it is published. Collaboration between forecasters and users of forecasts can develop information on uncertainty that is useful to planning.

Cancer burden attributable to human papillomavirus infection by sex, cancer site, age, and geographical area in China.

BackgroundHuman papillomavirus (HPV) attributable cancer burden is currently unknown in China, which is essential to evaluate the potential benefit of existing HPV https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/vaccine and to inform cancer control policy.MethodsWe extracted data of cancer incidence and mortality in 2014 from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, and data of national population from National Bureau of Statistics. HPV‐attributable cancer burden was estimated by incorporating cancer rates and population forecasts by sex, cancer site, age and geographical area, and then combined to corresponding population attributable fractions.ResultsWe estimated that there were 110 894 HPV‐attributable new cancer cases in China in 2014, including 99 253 cervical cancers, 4449 noncervical cancers in females and 7192 cancers in males. The age‐standardized incidence of HPV‐attributable cancers in China was 5.69 per 100 000 persons, being slightly higher in rural than urban areas. Specifically, 51.1% of HPV‐attributable cervical cancers were diagnosed in women aged 40‐54 years, while 75.8% of noncervical cancers were diagnosed at 45‐79 years of age. Among males, 53.4% of cancers were diagnosed at 55‐74 years of age. Thirty five thousand six hundred and eighty three HPV‐attributable cancer deaths were estimated, including 29 683 due to cervical cancer, and 2307 and 3693 due to noncervical cancer in females and males, respectively.ConclusionsThe cancer burden attributable to HPV in China is substantial. HPV vaccination and cervical screening should be prioritized.

THE FORECASTING OF POPULATION SUPER-AGING AND POLICY SIMULATION OF LONG-TERM CARE IN CHINA (2019-2070)

The purpose of this paper is to provide a policy simulation of Long-Term Care based on the aging population forecast for China, focusing on the super-aging and oldest-old segments of the population. As a developing country, it is a challenge for China to increase its wealth with the financial implications of an aging nation. The study identified two significant turning points for population development: 1) The multi-pilot program of long-term care policy reform must be executed between 2016 – 2020. This reform is time dependent because the multi-state longevity development period is from 2016 to 2030 and in the year 2030, the oldest-old population will be part of China’s society. 2) The year 2060 will be representative of a stable period in China, as the age of China’s population will no longer be accelerating.

How much can societal turning points affect forecasts\u2019 accuracy in Europe? Case of post-communistic transformation in Slovakia and the Czech Republic

It seems that the least accurate (population) forecasts are those published in the period of great historical turning points both economic and political. Several studies analysed the forecasts’ accuracy in Western countries, but the post-1990 development in the post-communistic countries has not been analysed in this respect. The general goal of the study is to show how hardly predictable and poorly predicted the demographical processes have appeared to be during the major societal and economic turning points after the post-communistic transformation started. To do this, the study first provides an exact measurement of the forecasts’ accuracy in transitioning Slovakia and Czechia. The key finding is that the forecasters either did not recognise the beginning of somewhat completely “new” or underestimated the dimensions of the turning points and turns in the recent trends. Thus, the assumption “drag” shows up much more frequently than some kind of over-reaction. Implicitly, the research re-opens a perpetual question whether methodological–mathematical improvements are more (or less) important than the deep insight into the forecasted processes. Secondly, the study demonstrates the range and dimension of changes that impact the demographic present and future. Here, the alternative future is built and simulated in terms of what the populations would have looked like if the socialist system had not collapsed. It is a quite simple but very smart way how to demonstrate the range of turnover since 1989.