Population Estimates Research Articles

Prevalence and Risk Factors for Cerebral Palsy in Children With Congenital Heart Disease Based on Risk of Surgical Mortality

BackgroundChildren with congenital heart disease (CHD) have a higher prevalence of motor impairment secondary to brain injury, resulting in cerebral palsy (CP). The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence of CP in CHD in a single-center cohort, stratify risk based on surgical mortality using Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (STAT) categories and identify risk factors. MethodsRetrospective cohort study of pediatric patients registered in the University of Florida (UF) Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery database from 2006 to 2017 with a diagnosis of CHD who continued follow-up for more than two years at UF. ResultsA total of 701 children with CHD met inclusion criteria. Children identified to have CP were 54 (7.7%). Most common presentation was spastic hemiplegic CP with a Gross Motor Function Classification System of level 2. Analysis of surgical and intensive care factors between the two groups showed that children with CHD and CP had longer time from admission to surgery (P = 0.003), higher STAT categories 4 and 5 (P = 0.038), and higher frequency of brain injury and seizures (P < 0.001). Developmental disabilities and rehabilitation needs were significantly greater for children with CHD and CP when compared with those with CHD alone (P < 0.001). ConclusionsIn our cohort, 7.7% children with CHD develop CP; this is significantly higher than the 2010 US population estimate of 0.3%. Our study suggests higher STAT categories, brain injury, and seizures are associated with developing CP in children with CHD.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing. Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

An Evaluation of Projection Methods for Detailed Small Area Projections: An Application and Validation to King County, Washington.

Population projections are used by a number of local agencies to better prepare for the future resource needs of counties, ensuring that educational, health, housing, and economic demands of individuals are met. Meeting the specific needs of a county's population, such as what resources to provide, where to target resources, and ensure an equitable distribution of those resources, requires population projections which are both demographically detailed, such as by age, race, and ethnicity, and geographically precise, such as at the census tract level. Despite this need, an evaluation of which methods are best suited to produce population projections at this level are lacking. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of several cohort-based methods for small area population projections by race and ethnicity. We apply these methods to population projections of King County, Washington and assess the validity of projections using past population estimates. We find a clear pattern that demonstrates while simplified methods perform well in near term forecasts, methods which employ smoothing strategies perform better in long-term forecasting scenarios. Furthermore, we demonstrate that model's incorporating multiple stages of smoothing can provide detailed insights into the projected population size of King county and the places and groups which will most contribute to this growth. Detailed projections, such as those provided by multi-stage smoothing methods, enable city planners and policy makers a detailed view of the future structure of their county's population and provide for them a resource to better meet the needs of future populations.

An adaptation of dual‐frame sampling for estimating bat population trends in multi‐hibernacula systems

AbstractReliable estimates of population trends are important for prioritizing and implementing wildlife management actions. Abundance estimates are the most informative metric of population status but are difficult and costly to achieve for rare or elusive species. For bat species that are highly mobile and nocturnal, abundance estimates are usually only possible at their roosts. Although they are relatively easy to census in individual roosts, it is often unclear whether observed trends are representative of broader populations trends. Dual‐frame sampling is useful for monitoring wildlife populations that exhibit site fidelity and are highly visible but where the proportion of the population in known sites is unknown. We adapted a dual‐frame sampling approach to estimate abundance of Townsend's big‐eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii) hibernating in a system of &gt;800 caves at Lava Beds National Monument (LBNM) in northern California, USA, in 2013–2022. Beginning with a list of opportunistically discovered hibernacula, we expanded inference to the entire system by randomly selecting sites and stratifying survey effort according to number of bats observed during previous counts. Following 4 years of surveys, we began substituting survey‐informed estimates for some site types to improve efficiency of the monitoring effort. We estimated that a mean of 2,216 ± 112 (SE) bats hibernated at the study site annually and observed fluctuations of up to 22% around the mean population estimate and as much as 21% from the previous year. Despite annual fluctuations, we did not detect a trend in the number of hibernating bats at LBNM over the study period, underlining the challenges of detecting population trends in long‐lived species not exposed to pronounced stressors. Because our analytical approach generates reliable estimates of trend while accommodating annual variability in survey effort among years, it should be attractive to wildlife managers faced with shifting priorities and resources.

Major trauma in working-age adults in New Zealand.

To describe the demographic and injury profile of major trauma among 20-65-year-old New Zealanders. A retrospective analysis of routinely collected data from the New Zealand Major Trauma Registry for the period 1 July 2017 to 30 June 2020 was conducted. Sex, age and ethnicity-based rates were then calculated using census-based population estimates to compare the rates of injury across different demographic groups. Of the 4,186 major trauma incidents among 20-65-year-olds in New Zealand during the 3-year period reviewed, 235 died (5.6%). Males accounted for 77% of those injured. Māori (New Zealand's Indigenous population) had significantly higher rates of major trauma (79.2 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval [CI] 74.4-84.3) compared to non-Māori (44.4 per 100,000; 95% CI 42.9-46.0). The most common cause of injury was transport-related incidents (63%; n=2,632/4,186), followed by falls (19%; n=788/4,186). Demographic characteristics have a significant relationship with major trauma injuries among 20-65-year-old New Zealanders. Continued injury prevention efforts focussing on males, Māori and transport incidents are required. Interventions that improve the safety of roads, such as lane separators, speed limits and raised intersections, should be implemented in high-crash-risk areas to reduce risk.

Selective under-representation of Pacific peoples in population estimates for health indicator measurements in Aotearoa New Zealand misinforms policy making

BackgroundThe Census of Populations and Dwellings’ is the five yearly population count of Aotearoa New Zealand. Best available populations (BAP) are subnational projections based on census data and demographic assumptions developed for healthcare planning and funding allocation but are also used as the denominator for health indicator monitoring. Pacific people are systematically undercounted, but the impact on health statistics is not well studied. For COVID-19 vaccination coverage, health service user (HSU) data were considered a more reliable denominator than BAP but introduced new biases. We aimed to understand how the choice of denominator population impacts estimates of population size and health system performance for Pacific people at a local level.MethodsWe described how declining census response rates affected population data quality. We compared BAP and HSU data at district level. For the indicators ‘access to primary care’ and ‘cervical cancer screening uptake’ we replaced currently used BAP denominators with HSU and examined the impact for different ethnic groups in different geographic districts.ResultsOverall Census 2018 response declined by 10%, but for Māori and Pacific people by 21% and 23%, respectively. This inequitably affected BAP accuracy. Census undercount was highest in the district with the largest Pacific populations, where HSU exceeded BAP most. Notably, ‘access to primary care’ for Pacific people in this district consistently exceeds 100%. Using BAP, both health indicators are currently estimated as highest for Pacific people compared to other ethnic groups, but when based on HSU, they dropped to lowest. Similar, but less pronounced trends occurred in other districts. Changes in trends over time for both indicators coincided mostly with adjustments in BAP, rather than changes in the numerators.ConclusionsThe current use of BAP denominators for health statistics does not enable reliable monitoring of key health indicators for Pacific people. HSU denominators are also unsuitable for monitoring health. Exploring the feasibility of a real-time population register is strongly recommended as a new, transparent, way of obtaining more reliable, timely population data to guide policymaking and underpin a more equitable health system under the health reforms. Meanwhile, reporting of ethnic specific outcomes need to include a clear assessment of the potential for bias due to inaccurate population estimates.

The impact of large core and late treatment trials: An update on the modelled annual thrombectomy eligibility of UK stroke patients.

To support decisions about thrombectomy provision, we have previously estimated the annual UK population eligible for treatment as ∼10% of stroke admissions. Since then, eight further randomised trials that could alter the eligibility rate have reported in 2021-23. We updated our estimates of the eligible population from these trials and other recent studies. An updated decision tree describing the EVT eligible population for UK stroke admissions was produced. Decision criteria were derived from the highest level of evidence available. For nodes where no specific RCT data existed, evidence was obtained from the latest systematic review(s) or the highest quality observational data. We estimate that 15,420 (approximately 15%) of admitted UK stroke patients are now eligible for thrombectomy, or 14,930 if advanced brain imaging using MRI/CT perfusion or collateral assessment were used in all patients. This is a 54% increase in our previous estimate in 2021. Over 50% of LAO strokes are now potentially eligible for thrombectomy. The increase in eligibility is principally due to a much larger cohort of later presenting and/or larger ischaemic core patients. Most previously independent LAO stroke patients presenting within 24 h, even in the presence of a large ischaemic core on initial non-contrast CT, should be considered for thrombectomy with use of advanced brain imaging in those presenting beyond 12 h to identify salvageable penumbral brain tissue. Treatment in most patients remains critically time-dependent and our estimates should be interpreted with this in mind.

Automated geovisualization of flood disaster impacts in the global South cities with open geospatial data sets and ICEYE SAR flood data

Flooding is a highly destructive natural disaster affecting millions of people annually, causing substantial global economic losses. Especially in the Global South, vulnerable populations with limited resources for flood protection and recovery suffer the most. However, effective flood impact analysis and standardized geospatial data processing and visualization is lacking, hindering effective disaster risk reduction. This study employs Python to develop a standardized, automated analysis and visualization model to address flood impacts after a high magnitude event anywhere in the world by using global geospatial data sets.In order to test its applicability two relevant cases, with different locations and scales, were selected, (Bangkok, Thailand, and Tula de Allende, Mexico). In both cases the automated flood model efficiently processed flood extent and depth data from ICEYE SAR images, added the population estimates from the German Aerospace Center, and key infrastructure elements from OpenStreetMap. The output of the automated process is presented as web-based interactive maps, offering insights into flooding severity and impacts with minimal user input. This quick approach (processing time between 41 s and 10,5 min) facilitates timely responses by first responders, with great potential to aid and improve the efficiency of international humanitarian efforts.By leveraging global high-resolution geospatial data for local-level analysis, this study demonstrates the versatility and time-saving benefits of this automated analysis and visualization. Automated models standardize results, minimizing human errors, and enabling consistent historical flood data comparison. Even though the databases are gathered from trusted sources, additional evaluation of uncertainties of the results with field data should be considered in further development of this tool. Nevertheless, this research highlights the worldwide potential, and especially the Global South, of automated global geospatial analysis to improve disaster impact reduction by enhancing efficient response efforts.

Testing methods to estimate population size for wastewater treatment plants using census data: Implications for wastewater-based epidemiology

In wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), wastewater loads are commonly reported as a per capita value. Census population counts are often used to obtain a population size to normalise wastewater loads. However, the methods used to calculate the population size of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) from census data are rarely reported in the WBE literature. This is problematic because the geographical extents of wastewater catchments and census area units rarely align perfectly with each other and exist at different spatial scales. This complicates efforts to estimate the number of people serviced by WWTPs in these census area units. This study compared four geospatial methods to combine wastewater catchment areas and census area units to calculate the census population size of wastewater treatment plants. These methods were applied nationally to WWTPs across New Zealand. Population estimates varied by up to 73 % between the methods, which could skew comparisons of per capita wastewater loads between sites. Variability in population estimates (relative standard deviation, RSD) was significantly higher in smaller catchments (rs = −0.727, P < .001), highlighting the importance of method selection in smaller sites. Census population estimates were broadly similar to those provided by wastewater operators, but significant variation was observed for some sites (ranging from 42 % lower to 78 % higher, RSD = 262 %). We present a widely applicable method to calculate population size from census, which involves disaggregating census area units by individual properties. The results reinforce the need for transparent reporting to maintain confidence in the comparison of WBE across sites and studies.

Reconstructing mountain goat history in the Olympic Mountains, USA

AbstractBetween 1925 and 1930, 11 or 12 non‐native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were translocated from Alaska and British Columbia to the foothills of the Olympic Range. By 1970, descendants of these goats had colonized the entire range and concerns about the management of this introduced species developed as damage to alpine soil and vegetation occurred. A series of removals reduced the population from 1175 in 1983 to 389 by 1990, eventually growing to 584 in 2016. We used demographic and genetic data to parameterize a population genetics individual‐based simulation model of the Olympic Range mountain goats. We calibrated the model to replicate the population trajectory for Olympic mountain goats from establishment in the 1920s through the 1983 first census. As expected, modeled population dynamics from 1928 to 1983 mimicked parameter initialization from expanding populations. However, simulated heterozygosity did not align with observations, suggesting a process not accounted for within the simulation model, such as a bottleneck or founder effect. Sensitivity analyses showed changes in annual reproductive rate, juvenile mortality, and adult female mortality influencing population trajectories, but variation in male mortality revealed no changes. Evaluating the population dynamics of the model after removals showed that approximately 80% of the total animals removed during the 1980s needed to be female in order for the observed population estimates to occur. This model has the potential to be used more widely with established or introduced mountain goat populations, as well as to provide an approach for studying other introduced species and their population dynamics.

Is a Māori contact‐era population of 100,000 too low? Evidence from population density analogues

AbstractThis research considers the current New Zealand conventional wisdom of a Māori contact‐era population of 100,000 circa‐1770 using a variety of population density analogues. The first set of analogues examines estimated population densities of six districts in early‐contact period New Zealand for which reasonable population estimates can be constructed using methods of historical demography. The second set examines estimated population densities of pre‐industrial societies on large, relatively isolated temperate islands outside of New Zealand. The density research indicates that a contact‐era Māori population in excess of 200,000 is a distinct possibility. Based on this density analysis the current conventional wisdom's figure of 100,000 appears to be—considerably—on the low side, and suggesting considerable catastrophic early post‐contact population decline.

Stabilization of Fuzzy Prey-Predator Model Using Backstepping Method

Ecological system depends on prey predator interaction and therefore, as a result, diseases may spread among prey or predator or both of them. In this work, the fuzzy logic-based systems are used to elaborate a prey-predator model to study the effect of varying in the inflection rate. Formulation of prey predator model using fuzzy logic is more realistic depiction of the phenomena, since the initial population estimates may not be precisely known in the real-life situation, therefore the initial conditions may also be considered as fuzzy. The dynamical behaviour of the fuzzy exploited system is studied by using the backstepping method. Some references working on prey-predator model, in which they used classical control schemes with a very long and complicated steps. While the proposed method of this paper simplifies the work steps. Numerical simulation results are presented to validate the theoretical analysis.

Learning and institutional support for youth in higher education institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa

IntroductionAs higher education institutions (HEIs) moved from in-person to online learning during the COVID-19 pandemic, various challenges were presented. Using a large online survey conducted during the pandemic, this paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on learning and institutional support offered to students in HEIs in South Africa.MethodsThe study utilized a closed-ended questionnaire on a data-free online platform. The study sample included South African youth aged 18–35 years who were enrolled for some type of educational training or in higher education institutions (including private colleges). Data was benchmarked to the 2019 estimates of the youth population in educational institutions. Descriptive statistics are presented.ResultsAmong the 7011 student participants, the main challenges experienced during lockdown were loss of study time (57.9%), insufficient money for essential personal items for studying (55.8%), loss of social contact (42.2%) and insufficient money for food (40.1%). Overall, 47.0% of students reported having free access to the internet, 49.5% used personal internet or paid for internet access and 3.5% indicated having no access to internet. The majority rated their institution’s eLearning portal as good or excellent, and 23.4% thought their eLearning portal was of poor quality. Significantly fewer (38.1%) technical and vocational education and training (TVET) college students indicated that their institution provided the capacity to conduct virtual learning compared to those enrolled at other types of institutions. Almost two thirds of students (66.2%) from TVET colleges experienced difficulty in communicating with their institutions. Half of the students (49.9%) reported that they had a suitable place to study during lockdown, while 78.6% had regular access to electricity during lockdown. Significantly more TVET and University of Technology students received transport to return home and fee refunds.ConclusionWhile it was encouraging that most HEIs had capacity for online learning and made provision of internet access for students, it was concerning that students who are enrolled at TVET colleges faced more learning challenges during the lockdown. This highlights the inequality in learning support at different types of institutions, and that effective support from HEIs to students during the COVID-19 pandemic was not fully implemented.

Predominantly antibody deficiency and the association with celiac disease in Sweden: A nationwide case-control study

BackgroundPredominantly antibody deficiency (PAD) is associated with noninfectious inflammatory gastrointestinal disease. Population estimates of celiac disease (CeD) risk in those with PAD are limited. ObjectiveTo estimate population risk of PAD in individuals with CeD. MethodsWe conducted a nationwide case-control study in Swedish individuals who received a diagnosis of CeD between 1997 and 2017 (n = 34,980), matched to population comparators by age, sex, calendar year, and county. The CeD was confirmed through the Epidemiology Strengthened by histopathology Reports in Sweden study, which provided information on biopsy specimens from each of Sweden's pathology departments. PAD was identified using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision coding and categorized according to the International Union of Immunologic Societies. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% CIs. ResultsPAD was more prevalent in CeD than in population controls (n = 105 [0.3%] vs n = 57 [0.033%], respectively). This translated to an aOR of 8.23 (95% CI 5.95-11.48). The association was strongest with common variable immunodeficiency (aOR 17.25; 95% CI 6.86-52.40), and slightly lower in other PAD (aOR 8.39; 95% CI 5.79-12.32). The risk of CeD remained increased at least 5 years after diagnosis of PAD (aOR 4.79; 95% CI 2.89-7.97, P-heterogeneity ≤ 0.001). ConclusionPAD was associated with an increased risk of CeD. A particularly strong association was seen in those with CVID, although this should be interpreted cautiously given the limited understanding of the mechanisms of histopathologic changes in these patients.

Prescriptions of psychotropic and somatic medications among patients with severe mental disorders and healthy controls in a naturalistic study

Purpose Psychotropic and somatic medications are both used in treating severe mental disorders (SMDs). Realistic estimates of the prevalence of use across medication categories are needed. We obtained this in a clinical cohort of patients with SMD and healthy controls (HCs). Materials and methods Prescriptions filled at Norwegian pharmacies the year before and after admittance to the Thematically Organized Psychosis (TOP) study were examined in 1406 patients with SMD (mean age 32.5 years, 48.2% women) and 920 HC (34.1 years, 46.2% women). Using data from the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD), the number of users in different anatomical therapeutic chemical (ATC) categories was compared using logistic regression. Population estimates were used as reference data. Results Use of antipsychotics (N05A), antiepileptics (N03A), antidepressants (N06A), anxiolytics (N05B), hypnotics and sedatives (N05C), anticholinergics (N04A), psychostimulants, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and nootropic agents (N06B) and drugs for addiction disorders (N07B) was significantly more prevalent in patients with SMD than HC. Use of diabetes treatment (A10), antithrombotic drugs (B01), beta blockers (C07), lipid modifiers (C10), and thyroid and endocrine therapeutics (H03) was also more prevalent in patients with SMD, but with two exceptions somatic medication use was comparable to the general population. Among HC, there was low prevalence of use for most medication categories. Conclusion Patients were using psychiatric medications, but also several types of somatic medications, more often than HC. Still, somatic medication use was mostly not higher than in the general population. The results indicate that HC had low use of most medication types.

In search of a ‘good number’: knowledge controversy and population estimates in the endgame of hepatitis C elimination

We explore the contentious life of a metric used to assess a country’s progress in relation to global disease elimination targets. Our topic is hepatitis C elimination, and our context...

A Physics-Based Seismic Risk Assessment of the Qujiang Fault: From Dynamic Rupture to Disaster Estimation

This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods—from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation—and then population and economic loss estimations. The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry, stress field, rock properties, and terrain. Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved. The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment. Additionally, there are significant variations in human losses, even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios. Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Yuxi City, Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture, and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks, with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable. Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault. Notably, although the fault is within Yuxi, Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage. These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.

Abstract WP250: The Changing Impact of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status on Stroke Incidence in the BASIC Project

Background: Poverty is associated with increased stroke risk, but it is unclear how this has changed over time. We sought to evaluate temporal trends in stroke incidence by neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) in a south Texas community. Methods: Within the BASIC project, we identified all first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes among Mexican American or non-Hispanic White persons, age &gt;45, from 2010-2021, geocoded to census tract by patient home address (n=4,137). Using 5 year rolling average annual data from the American Community Survey, a composite nSES score was assigned to each census tract, reflecting aggregate neighborhood income, wealth, education, and occupation (range -1.60, 1.95; lower=poorer). For each year, the nSES percentile of each tract was determined. Incidence rates were estimated using Poisson regression, with annual population estimates as offsets, including a quadratic term for time to account for nonlinear trends. The model included annual nSES percentile, age, sex, ethnicity, and nSES-time and ethnicity-time interactions. Results: Incidence rates for high vs low nSES neighborhoods for the 45-65-year age group are shown in the Figure. Incidence rate ratios for nSES changed over time (p&lt;0.01 for interaction) in a u-shaped fashion, with no association present in 2010, a significant association in 2015 (RR for 90th vs 10th percentile nSES=0.59, 95% CI=0.49-0.70), and no association in 2021 (Figure). Conclusions: The gap in stroke incidence between the richest and poorest neighborhoods peaked in 2015 and was no longer present in 2021, due to declining rates in low nSES neighborhoods. Future work should explore the causes underlying these trends.

Acoustic monitoring yields informative bat population density estimates.

Bat population estimates are typically made during winter, although this is only feasible for bats that aggregate in hibernacula. While it is essential to measure summer bat population sizes for management, we lack a reliable method. Acoustic surveys should be less expensive and more efficient than capture surveys, and acoustic activity data are already used as indices of population size. Although we currently cannot differentiate individual bats by their calls, we can enter call counts, information on signal and detection angles, and weather data into generalized random encounter models to estimate bat density. We assessed the utility of generalized random encounter models for estimating Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) population density with acoustic data collected at 51 total sites in six conservation areas in northeast Missouri, 2019-2021. We tested the effects of year, volancy period, conservation area, and their interactions on estimated density. Volancy period was the best predictor, with average predicted density increasing 60% from pre-volancy (46 bats/km2) to post-volancy (74 bats/km2); however, the magnitude of the effect differed by conservation area. We showed that passive acoustic surveys yield informative density estimates that are responsive to temporal changes in bat population size, which suggests this method may be useful for long-term monitoring. However, we need more information to choose the most appropriate values for the density estimation formula. Future work to refine this approach should include assessments of bat behavior and detection parameters and testing the method's efficacy in areas where population sizes are known.

Bigger is better: age class‐specific survival rates in long‐lived turtles increase with size

AbstractVital rates for small, non‐breeding individuals are important components of population dynamics for many species, but often individuals of these sizes are difficult to locate, capture, and track. As such, biologists frequently lack reliable estimates of juvenile survival because sample sizes and recapture rates for this life stage are low. Long‐lived animals often take many years to reach sexual maturity and spend much of this time in the smaller size classes, making them sensitive to changes in survival rates. We estimated the survival rates of all size classes for the northern map turtle (Graptemys geographica) using a mark‐recapture dataset with &gt;3,500 captures from 2019–2021 and 210 nests from 2018–2021. As turtle size increased, annual survival probability increased regardless of sex. Estimated annual survival probability for turtles &gt;18 cm long (i.e., adult females &gt;15 years) was about 0.95, over 4 times higher than turtles that were 3 cm long (i.e., hatchlings &lt;1 year; 0.22 annual survival probability). Although we did not observe a difference in survival probability between sexes of any size class, adult females are nearly twice the size of adult males, leading to an increased annual survival probability for females of 0.95, compared to 0.80 for males. Changes in adult survival had the greatest influence on population estimates over time, with temporary decreases, such as those due to poaching or an environmental disaster, potentially leading to unrecoverable decreases in the overall population size. Our study provides detailed survival rates for all size classes in a long‐lived turtle, which are necessary to assess population stability and can be used to determine the most effective conservation or management practices.