The impact of large core and late treatment trials: An update on the modelled annual thrombectomy eligibility of UK stroke patients.

Abstract

To support decisions about thrombectomy provision, we have previously estimated the annual UK population eligible for treatment as ∼10% of stroke admissions. Since then, eight further randomised trials that could alter the eligibility rate have reported in 2021-23. We updated our estimates of the eligible population from these trials and other recent studies. An updated decision tree describing the EVT eligible population for UK stroke admissions was produced. Decision criteria were derived from the highest level of evidence available. For nodes where no specific RCT data existed, evidence was obtained from the latest systematic review(s) or the highest quality observational data. We estimate that 15,420 (approximately 15%) of admitted UK stroke patients are now eligible for thrombectomy, or 14,930 if advanced brain imaging using MRI/CT perfusion or collateral assessment were used in all patients. This is a 54% increase in our previous estimate in 2021. Over 50% of LAO strokes are now potentially eligible for thrombectomy. The increase in eligibility is principally due to a much larger cohort of later presenting and/or larger ischaemic core patients. Most previously independent LAO stroke patients presenting within 24 h, even in the presence of a large ischaemic core on initial non-contrast CT, should be considered for thrombectomy with use of advanced brain imaging in those presenting beyond 12 h to identify salvageable penumbral brain tissue. Treatment in most patients remains critically time-dependent and our estimates should be interpreted with this in mind.