Vector Population Dynamics Research Articles

Insecticide-Treated Net Campaign and Malaria Transmission in Western Kenya: 2003-2015.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are among the three major intervention measures that have reduced malaria transmission in the past decade. However, increased insecticide resistance in vectors, together with outdoor transmission, has limited the efficacy of the ITN scaling-up efforts. Observations on longitudinal changes in ITN coverage and its impact on malaria transmission allow policy makers to make informed adjustments to control strategies. We analyzed field surveys on ITN ownership, malaria parasite prevalence, and malaria vector population dynamics in seven sentinel sites in western Kenya from 2003 to 2015. We found that ITN ownership has increased from an average of 18% in 2003 to 85% in 2015. Malaria parasite prevalence in school children decreased by about 70% from 2003 to 2008 (the first mass distribution of free ITNs was in 2006) but has resurged by >50% since then. At the community level, use of ITNs reduced infections by 23% in 2008 and 43% in 2010, although the reduction was down to 25% in 2011. The indoor-resting density of the predominant vector, Anopheles gambiae, has been suppressed since 2007; however, Anopheles funestus populations have resurged and have increased 20-fold in some places since 2007. In conclusion, there is limited room for further increase in ITN coverage in western Kenya. The rebounding in malaria transmission highlights the urgent need of new or improved malaria control interventions so as to further reduce malaria transmission.

Maternal effects on offspring size in a natural population of the viviparous tsetse fly

1. Theory predicts that mothers should adaptively adjust reproductive investment depending on current reserves and future reproductive opportunities. Females in better intrinsic state, or with more resources, should invest more in current reproduction than those with fewer resources. Across the lifespan, investment may increase as future reproductive opportunities decline, yet may also decline with reductions in intrinsic state.2. Across many species, larger mothers produce larger offspring, but there is no theoretical consensus on why this is so. This pattern may be driven by variation in maternal state such as nutrition, yet few studies measure both size and nutritional state or attempt to tease apart confounding effects of size and age.3. Viviparous tsetse flies (Glossina species) offer an excellent system to explore patterns of reproductive investment: females produce large, single offspring sequentially over the course of their relatively long life. Thus, per‐brood reproductive effort can be quantified by offspring size.4. While most tsetse reproduction research has been conducted on laboratory colonies, maternal investment was investigated in this study using a unique field method where mothers were collected as they deposited larvae, allowing simultaneous mother‐offspring measurements under natural conditions.5. It was found that larger mothers and those with a higher fat content produced larger offspring, and there was a trend for older mothers to produce slightly larger offspring.6. The present results highlight the importance of measuring maternal nutritional state, rather than size alone, when considering maternal investment in offspring. Implications for understanding vector population dynamics are also discussed.

Modelling the influence of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis.

BackgroundMalaria continues to be one of the most devastating diseases in the world, killing more humans than any other infectious disease. Malaria parasites are entirely dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission. For this reason, vector population dynamics is a crucial determinant of malaria risk. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. Temperature and precipitation also play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles.MethodsIn this study, a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model is developed to analyse how temperature and the availability of water affect mosquito population size. In the model, the influence of ambient temperature on the development and the mortality rate of Anopheles arabiensis is considered over a region in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, the model is used to examine the impact of climatic factors on the gonotrophic cycle and the dynamics of mosquito population over the study region.ResultsThe results fairly accurately quantify the seasonality of the population of An. arabiensis over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the vector population dynamics. The model simulates the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. arabiensis. The simulated larval density produces a curve which is similar to observed data obtained from another study.ConclusionThe model is efficiently developed to predict An. arabiensis population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of various control strategies. In addition, the model framework is built to accommodate human population dynamics with the ability to predict malaria incidence in future.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1411-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effect of stable and fluctuating temperatures on the life history traits of Anopheles arabiensis and An. quadriannulatus under conditions of inter- and intra-specific competition

BackgroundConstant and fluctuating temperatures influence important life-history parameters of malaria vectors which has implications for community organization and the malaria disease burden. The effects of environmental temperature on the hatch rate, survivorship and development rate of Anopheles arabiensis and An. quadriannulatus under conditions of inter- and intra-specific competition are studied.MethodsThe eggs and larvae of laboratory established colonies were reared under controlled conditions at one constant (25 °C) and two fluctuating (20–30 °C and 18–35 °C) temperature treatments at a ratio of 1:0 or 1:1 (An. arabiensis: An. quadriannulatus). Monitoring of hatch rate, development rate and survival was done at three intervals, 6 to 8 h apart depending on developmental stage. Parametric ANOVAs were used where assumptions of equal variances and normality were met, and a Welch ANOVA where equal variance was violated (α = 0.05).ResultsTemperature significantly influenced the measured life-history traits and importantly, this was evident when these species co-occurred. A constant temperature resulted in a higher hatch rate in single species, larval treatments (P < 0.05). The treatment 18–35 °C generally reduced survivorship except for An. arabiensis in mixed, larval species treatments where it was similar to values reported for 25 °C. Survivorship of both species at 20–30 °C was not significantly impacted and the adult production was high across species treatments. The development rates at 25 °C and 20–30 °C were significantly different between species when reared alone and in mixed species from larvae and from eggs. The effect of temperature was more pronounced at 18–35 °C with An. arabiensis developing faster under both competitive scenarios and An. quadriannulatus slower, notably when in the presence of its competitor (P < 0.05).ConclusionsThe influence of temperature treatment on the development rate and survival from egg/larvae to adult differed across species treatments. Fluctuating temperatures incorporating the extremes influence the key life-history parameters measured here with An. arabiensis outcompeting An. quadriannulatus under these conditions. The quantification of the response variables measured here improve our knowledge of the link between temperature and species interactions and provide valuable information for modelling of vector population dynamics.

Species composition and population dynamics of malaria vectors in three previously ignored aquatic systems in Sri Lanka.

BackgroundIn 2015 alone there were an estimated 214 million new cases of malaria across the globe and 438,000 deaths were reported. Although indigenous malaria has not been reported in Sri Lanka since 2012, to date 247 imported cases of malaria have been identified. Knowledge of the locations, behaviour and vectorial capacity of potential malarial vectors is therefore needed to prevent future outbreaks. Attention is now being focused on some previously ignored habitats.MethodsActive and abandoned granite and clay quarry pits, located in wet and intermediate zones, and agro wells located in the dry zone of Sri Lanka were mapped and sampled for 1 year, as potential mosquito breeding sites. Species composition and spatio-temporal variation in both malarial and other mosquito larvae were recorded.ResultsA total of 18 species of mosquito larvae were identified. Other than Anopheles culicifacies, the primary malaria vector, five species of potential malaria vectors (Anopheles vagus, Anopheles varuna, Anopheles nigerrimus, Anopheles peditaeniatus and Anopheles barbirostris) were found in all three aquatic systems. Additionally, Anopheles annularis was found in granite quarries and Anopheles subpictus and Anopheles pallidus in both types of quarry, but only during the initial sampling. Apart from potential malaria vectors, mosquito larvae such as Anopheles jamesii, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Culex infula and Culex malayi were found in all three habitats at least once during the sampling period. Apart from potential malaria vectors and other mosquito larvae common to all three aquatic systems, Culex gelidus, Culex mimulus and Culex pseudo vishnui were detected in agro wells. Culex gelidus was also detected in granite quarry pits. Culex mimulus, Culex lutzia and Culex fuscocephala were detected in clay quarry pits. Accordingly, a total of 14, 13 and 15 mosquito species were identified in agro wells, granite and clay quarry pits, respectively.ConclusionsAlthough zero occurrence of indigenous malaria has been achieved in Sri Lanka, the current study emphasizes the potential for future epidemics. The presence of native flora and fauna in abandoned granite and clay quarry pits and the need to extract drinking water from agro wells demand bio-sensitive control methods in these three aquatic systems.

Evolution of GOUNDRY, a cryptic subgroup of Anophelesgambiaes.l., and its impact on susceptibility to Plasmodium infection.

The recent discovery of a previously unknown genetic subgroup of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato underscores our incomplete understanding of complexities of vector population demographics in Anopheles. This subgroup, named GOUNDRY, does not rest indoors as adults and is highly susceptible to Plasmodium infection in the laboratory. Initial description of GOUNDRY suggested it differed from other known Anopheles taxa in surprising and sometimes contradictory ways, raising a number of questions about its age, population size and relationship to known subgroups. To address these questions, we sequenced the complete genomes of 12 wild-caught GOUNDRY specimens and compared these genomes to a panel of Anopheles genomes. We show that GOUNDRY is most closely related to Anopheles coluzzii, and the timing of cladogenesis is not recent, substantially predating the advent of agriculture. We find a large region of the X chromosome that has swept to fixation in GOUNDRY within the last 100 years, which may be an inversion that serves as a partial barrier to contemporary gene flow. Interestingly, we show that GOUNDRY has a history of inbreeding that is significantly associated with susceptibility to Plasmodium infection in the laboratory. Our results illuminate the genomic evolution of one of probably several cryptic, ecologically specialized subgroups of Anopheles and provide a potent example of how vector population dynamics may complicate efforts to control or eradicate malaria.

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Numbers in the Yogyakarta Area of Java, Indonesia, With Implications for Wolbachia Releases.

of mosquito vector populations, particularly through Wolbachia endosymbionts. The success of these strategies depends on understanding the dynamics of vector populations. In preparation for Wolbachia releases around Yogyakarta, we have studied Aedes populations in five hamlets. Adult monitoring with BioGent- Sentinel (BG-S) traps indicated that hamlet populations had different dynamics across the year; while there was an increase in Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) numbers in the wet season, species abundance remained relatively stable in some hamlets but changed markedly (>2 fold) in others. Local rainfall a month prior to monitoring partly predicted numbers of Ae. aegypti but not Ae. albopictus. Site differences in population size indicated by BG-S traps were also evident in ovitrap data. Egg or larval collections with ovitraps repeated at the same location suggested spatial autocorrelation (<250 m) in the areas of the hamlets where Ae. aegypti numbers were high. Overall, there was a weak negative association (r<0.43) between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus numbers in ovitraps when averaged across collections. Ae. albopictus numbers in ovitraps and BG-S traps were positively correlated with vegetation around areas where traps were placed, while Ae. aegypti were negatively correlated with this feature. These data inform intervention strategies by defining periods when mosquito densities are high, highlighting the importance of local site characteristics on populations, and suggesting relatively weak interactions between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They also indicate local areas within hamlets where consistently high mosquito densities may influence Wolbachia invasions and other interventions.

Variations of Incidence, Types of Virus Diseases and Insect Vector Populations of Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), Grown in Different Agroecological Regions of Sri Lanka under Two Crop Management Systems

Incidence and types of insect-transmitted virus diseases of plants vary with the environmental factors, which have direct or indirect relationships on population dynamics of vectors. Alternative indirect strategies are essential to mitigate the environmental and health hazards of pesticide usage, which is the most predominant method of vector management used at present. The present study was conducted to determine the variation of virus disease incidence and the population of insect vectors in field grown tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) cv. Thilina in different environmental conditions using two crop management systems namely, existing management system with pesticide applications and an integrated management package (IMP) with less reliance on pesticides. Incidence and types of virus diseases, their abundance and types of both insect vectors and beneficial insects were recorded over one cropping season, together with mean day temperature and rainfall data. Peroxidase activity in tomato tissues was quantified spectrophotometrically to determine the effects of the location and management practices on build-up of defence related enzymes in plant tissues. Relationships between the virus disease incidence, vector and beneficial insect populations and climatic parameters were also analyzed. Results revealed that there was no significant (p=0.05) difference between the two types of management systems in terms of virus disease incidence indicating the equal efficiency of the tested IMP treatment and existing pest control method on virus disease management. Abundance of insect vectors and beneficial insect populations were significantly (p0.05) influenced by the interaction effect of the management system and location. The mean day temperature was weakly related with the virus disease incidence at different locations. Peroxidase activity of tomato tissues was significantly (p0.05) different among locations and did not significantly vary between the plants treated with IMP and the existing management systems . T ropical Agricultural Research Vol. 25 (3): 376-395 (2014)

Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review.

BackgroundAlthough Plasmodium falciparum transmission frequently exhibits seasonal patterns, the drivers of malaria seasonality are often unclear. Given the massive variation in the landscape upon which transmission acts, intra-annual fluctuations are likely influenced by different factors in different settings. Further, the presence of potentially substantial inter-annual variation can mask seasonal patterns; it may be that a location has “strongly seasonal” transmission and yet no single season ever matches the mean, or synoptic, curve. Accurate accounting of seasonality can inform efficient malaria control and treatment strategies. In spite of the demonstrable importance of accurately capturing the seasonality of malaria, data required to describe these patterns is not universally accessible and as such localized and regional efforts at quantifying malaria seasonality are disjointed and not easily generalized.Methods The purpose of this review was to audit the literature on seasonality of P. falciparum and quantitatively summarize the collective findings. Six search terms were selected to systematically compile a list of papers relevant to the seasonality of P. falciparum transmission, and a questionnaire was developed to catalogue the manuscripts.Results and discussion152 manuscripts were identified as relating to the seasonality of malaria transmission, deaths due to malaria or the population dynamics of mosquito vectors of malaria. Among these, there were 126 statistical analyses and 31 mechanistic analyses (some manuscripts did both).DiscussionIdentified relationships between temporal patterns in malaria and climatological drivers of malaria varied greatly across the globe, with different drivers appearing important in different locations. Although commonly studied drivers of malaria such as temperature and rainfall were often found to significantly influence transmission, the lags between a weather event and a resulting change in malaria transmission also varied greatly by location.ConclusionsThe contradicting results of studies using similar data and modelling approaches from similar locations as well as the confounding nature of climatological covariates underlines the importance of a multi-faceted modelling approach that attempts to capture seasonal patterns at both small and large spatial scales.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0849-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes.

Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain persistent gaps in understanding of vital rates and drivers in mosquito-vectored disease systems, and vast holes in understanding for other arthropod vectored diseases. Empirical studies are needed to better understand the physiological constraints and socio-ecological processes that generate heterogeneity in critical transmission parameters, including vector survival and fitness. Likewise, laboratory experiments and transmission models must evaluate vector response to realistic field conditions, including variability in sociological and environmental conditions.

Biological Control of the Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma infestans with the Entomopathogenic Fungus Beauveria bassiana Combined with an Aggregation Cue: Field, Laboratory and Mathematical Modeling Assessment.

BackgroundCurrent Chagas disease vector control strategies, based on chemical insecticide spraying, are growingly threatened by the emergence of pyrethroid-resistant Triatoma infestans populations in the Gran Chaco region of South America.Methodology and findingsWe have already shown that the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana has the ability to breach the insect cuticle and is effective both against pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant T. infestans, in laboratory as well as field assays. It is also known that T. infestans cuticle lipids play a major role as contact aggregation pheromones. We estimated the effectiveness of pheromone-based infection boxes containing B. bassiana spores to kill indoor bugs, and its effect on the vector population dynamics. Laboratory assays were performed to estimate the effect of fungal infection on female reproductive parameters. The effect of insect exuviae as an aggregation signal in the performance of the infection boxes was estimated both in the laboratory and in the field. We developed a stage-specific matrix model of T. infestans to describe the fungal infection effects on insect population dynamics, and to analyze the performance of the biopesticide device in vector biological control.ConclusionsThe pheromone-containing infective box is a promising new tool against indoor populations of this Chagas disease vector, with the number of boxes per house being the main driver of the reduction of the total domestic bug population. This ecologically safe approach is the first proven alternative to chemical insecticides in the control of T. infestans. The advantageous reduction in vector population by delayed-action fungal biopesticides in a contained environment is here shown supported by mathematical modeling.

Spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) mitochondrial lineages in cities with distinct dengue incidence rates suggests complex population dynamics of the dengue vector in Colombia.

Background Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4), Chikungunya and yellow fever virus to humans. Previous population genetic studies have revealed a particular genetic structure among the vector populations in the Americas that suggests differences in the ability to transmit DENV. In Colombia, despite its high epidemiologic importance, the genetic population structure and the phylogeographic depiction of Ae. aegypti, as well as its relationship with the epidemiologic landscapes in cities with heterogeneous incidence levels, remains unknown. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis with the aim of determining the genetic structure and phylogeography of Colombian populations of Ae. aegypti among cities with different eco-epidemiologic characteristics with regard to DENV.Methods/FindingsMitochondrial cytochrome oxidase C subunit 1 (COI) - NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) genes were sequenced and analyzed from 341 adult mosquitoes collected during 2012 and 2013 in the Colombian cities of Bello, Riohacha and Villavicencio, which exhibit low, medium and high levels of incidence of DENV, respectively. The results demonstrated a low genetic differentiation over time and a high genetic structure between the cities due to changes in the frequency of two highly supported genetic groups. The phylogeographic analyses indicated that one group (associated with West African populations) was found in all the cities throughout the sampling while the second group (associated with East African populations) was found in all the samples from Bello and in only one sampling from Riohacha. Environmental factors such as the use of chemical insecticides showed a significant correlation with decreasing genetic diversity, indicating that environmental factors affect the population structure of Ae. aegypti across time and space in these cities.ConclusionsOur results suggest that two Ae. aegypti lineages are present in Colombia; one that is widespread and related to a West African conspecific, and a second that may have been recently introduced and is related to an East African conspecific. The first lineage can be found in cities showing a high incidence of dengue fever and the use of chemical insecticides, whereas the second is present in cities showing a low incidence of dengue fever where the use of chemical insecticides is not constant. This study helps to improve our knowledge of the population structure of Ae. aegypti involved in the diversity of dengue fever epidemiology in Colombia.

A generic weather-driven model to predict mosquito population dynamics applied to species of Anopheles, Culex and Aedes genera of southern France

An accurate understanding and prediction of mosquito population dynamics are needed to identify areas where there is a high risk of mosquito-borne disease spread and persistence. Simulation tools are relevant for supporting decision-makers in the surveillance of vector populations, as models of vector population dynamics provide predictions of the greatest risk periods for vector abundance, which can be particularly helpful in areas with a highly variable environment. We present a generic weather-driven model of mosquito population dynamics, which was applied to one species of each of the genera Anopheles, Culex, and Aedes, located in the same area and thus affected by similar weather conditions. The predicted population dynamics of Anopheles hyrcanus, Culex pipiens, and Aedes caspius were not similar. An. hyrcanus was abundant in late summer. Cx. pipiens was less abundant but throughout the summer. The abundance of both species showed a single large peak with few variations between years. The population dynamics of Ae. caspius showed large intra- and inter-annual variations due to pulsed egg hatching. Predictions of the model were compared to longitudinal data on host-seeking adult females. Data were previously obtained using CDC-light traps baited with carbon dioxide dry ice in 2005 at two sites (Marais du Viguerat and Tour Carbonnière) in a favourable temperate wetland of southern France (Camargue). The observed and predicted periods of maximal abundance for An. hyrcanus and Cx. pipiens tallied very well. Pearson's coefficients for these two species were over 75% for both species. The model also reproduced the major trends in the intra-annual fluctuations of Ae. caspius population dynamics, with peaks occurring in early summer and following the autumn rainfall events. Few individuals of this species were trapped so the comparison of predicted and observed dynamics was not relevant. A global sensitivity analysis of the species-specific models enabled us to identify the parameters most influencing the maximal abundance of mosquitoes. These key parameters were almost similar between species, but not with the same contributions. The emergence of adult mosquitoes was identified as a key process in the population dynamics of all of the three species considered here. Parameters associated with adult emergence therefore need to be precisely known to achieve accurate predictions. Our model is a flexible and efficient tool that predicts mosquito abundance based on local environmental factors. It is useful to and already used by a mosquito surveillance manager in France.

Landscape ecology and epidemiology of malaria associated with rubber plantations in Thailand: integrated approaches to malaria ecotoping.

The agricultural land use changes that are human-induced changes in agroforestry ecosystems and in physical environmental conditions contribute substantially to the potential risks for malaria transmission in receptive areas. Due to the pattern and extent of land use change, the risks or negatively ecosystemic outcomes are the results of the dynamics of malaria transmission, the susceptibility of human populations, and the geographical distribution of malaria vectors. This review focused basically on what are the potential effects of agricultural land use change as a result of the expansion of rubber plantations in Thailand and how significant the ecotopes of malaria-associated rubber plantations (MRP) are. More profoundly, this review synthesized the novel concepts and perspectives on applied landscape ecology and epidemiology of malaria, as well as approaches to determine the degree to which an MRP ecotope as fundamental landscape scale can establish malaria infection pocket(s). Malaria ecotoping encompasses the integrated approaches and tools applied to or used in modeling malaria transmission. The scalability of MRP ecotope depends upon its unique landscape structure as it is geographically associated with the infestation or reinfestation of Anopheles vectors, along with the attributes that are epidemiologically linked with the infections. The MRP ecotope can be depicted as the hotspot such that malaria transmission is modeled upon the MRP factors underlying human settlements and movement activities, health behaviors, land use/land cover change, malaria vector population dynamics, and agrienvironmental and climatic conditions. The systemic and uniform approaches to malaria ecotoping underpin the stratification of the potential risks for malaria transmission by making use of remotely sensed satellite imagery or landscape aerial photography using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), global positioning systems (GPS), and geographical information systems (GIS).

Survey Report of Visceral Leishmaniasis Based on Serodiagnostic Test in Madhepura District of Bihar, India

The paper is based on a population survey conducted for the analysis of epidemiological condition of visceral leishmaniasis from January 2010 to December 2011. The annual incidence (per 10,000) was observed 8.98 for 2010 and 7.71 for 2011. The annual prevalence of disease was 26.92 in 2010 and 23.78 in 2011. The seasonal variation of incidence and its relationship with eco-climatic factors have discussed. The % incidence and temperature represented weak positive correlation with Pearson’s co-efficient value +0.269 (SEr = 0.1892) and linear relationship by regression equation y = 0.116 X + 4.895; whereas % incidence and humidity represented moderate negative correlation with Pearson’s coefficient value −0.649 (SEr = 0.1181) and linear relationship by regression equation y = −0.154 X + 20.40. The retrospective analysis among epidemiological parameters, eco-climatic factors and vector population dynamics are discussed in present paper. It represents internal incubation period of leishmania is 6–8 month in the region under study.

Restriction of Francisella novicida genetic diversity during infection of the vector midgut.

The genetic diversity of pathogens, and interactions between genotypes, can strongly influence pathogen phenotypes such as transmissibility and virulence. For vector-borne pathogens, both mammalian hosts and arthropod vectors may limit pathogen genotypic diversity (number of unique genotypes circulating in an area) by preventing infection or transmission of particular genotypes. Mammalian hosts often act as “ecological filters” for pathogen diversity, where novel variants are frequently eliminated because of stochastic events or fitness costs. However, whether vectors can serve a similar role in limiting pathogen diversity is less clear. Here we show using Francisella novicida and a natural tick vector of Francisella spp. (Dermacentor andersoni), that the tick vector acted as a stronger ecological filter for pathogen diversity compared to the mammalian host. When both mice and ticks were exposed to mixtures of F. novicida genotypes, significantly fewer genotypes co-colonized ticks compared to mice. In both ticks and mice, increased genotypic diversity negatively affected the recovery of available genotypes. Competition among genotypes contributed to the reduction of diversity during infection of the tick midgut, as genotypes not recovered from tick midguts during mixed genotype infections were recovered from tick midguts during individual genotype infection. Mediated by stochastic and selective forces, pathogen genotype diversity was markedly reduced in the tick. We incorporated our experimental results into a model to demonstrate how vector population dynamics, especially vector-to-host ratio, strongly affected pathogen genotypic diversity in a population over time. Understanding pathogen genotypic population dynamics will aid in identification of the variables that most strongly affect pathogen transmission and disease ecology.

Temperature during larval development and adult maintenance influences the survival of Anopheles gambiae s.s.

BackgroundMalaria transmission depends on vector life-history parameters and population dynamics, and particularly on the survival of adult Anopheles mosquitoes. These dynamics are sensitive to climatic and environmental factors, and temperature is a particularly important driver. Data currently exist on the influence of constant and fluctuating adult environmental temperature on adult Anopheles gambiae s.s. survival and on the effect of larval environmental temperature on larval survival, but none on how larval temperature affects adult life-history parameters.MethodsMosquito larvae and pupae were reared individually at different temperatures (23 ± 1°C, 27 ± 1°C, 31 ± 1°C, and 35 ± 1°C), 75 ± 5% relative humidity. Upon emergence into imagoes, individual adult females were either left at their larval temperature or placed at a different temperature within the range above. Survival was monitored every 24 hours and data were analysed using non-parametric and parametric methods. The Gompertz distribution fitted the survivorship data better than the gamma, Weibull, and exponential distributions overall and was adopted to describe mosquito mortality rates.ResultsIncreasing environmental temperature during the larval stages decreased larval survival (p < 0.001). Increases of 4°C (from 23°C to 27°C, 27°C to 31°C, and 31°C to 35°C), 8°C (27°C to 35°C) and 12°C (23°C to 35°C) statistically significantly increased larval mortality (p < 0.001). Higher environmental temperature during the adult stages significantly lowered adult survival overall (p < 0.001), with increases of 4°C and 8°C significantly influencing survival (p < 0.001). Increasing the larval environment temperature also significantly increased adult mortality overall (p < 0.001): a 4°C increase (23°C to 27°C) did not significantly affect adult survival (p > 0.05), but an 8°C increase did (p < 0.05). The effect of a 4°C increase in larval temperature from 27°C to 31°C depended on the adult environmental temperature. The data also suggest that differences between the temperatures of the larval and adult environments affects adult mosquito survival.ConclusionsEnvironmental temperature affects Anopheles survival directly during the juvenile and adult stages, and indirectly, since temperature during larval development significantly influences adult survival. These results will help to parameterise more reliable mathematical models investigating the potential impact of temperature and global warming on malaria transmission.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0489-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

BackgroundRift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.Methods/FindingsTime-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.Conclusion/SignificanceFindings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

On a Reproductive Stage-Structured Model for the Population Dynamics of the Malaria Vector

A reproductive stage-structured deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and analysed. The model captures the gonotrophic and behavioural life characteristics of the female Anopheles sp. mosquito and takes into consideration the fact that for the purposes of reproduction, the female Anopheles sp. mosquito must visit and bite humans (or animals) to harvest necessary proteins from blood that it needs for the development of its eggs. Focusing on mosquitoes that feed exclusively on humans, our results indicate the existence of a threshold parameter, the vectorial reproduction number, whose size increases with increasing number of gonotrophic cycles, and is also affected by the female mosquito's birth rate, its attraction and visitation rate to human residences, and its contact rate with humans. A stability analysis of the model indicates that the mosquito can establish itself in the environment if and only if the value of the vectorial reproduction number exceeds unity and that mosquito eradication is possible if the vectorial reproduction number is less than unity, since, then, the trivial steady state which always exist is unique and is globally and asymptotically stable. When a persistent vector population steady state exists, it is locally and asymptotically stable for a range of reproduction numbers, but can also be driven to instability via a Hopf bifurcation as the reproduction number increases further away from unity. The model derivation identifies and characterizes control parameters relating to activities such as human-mosquito contact and the mosquito's survival chances between blood meals and egg laying. Our results show that the total mosquito population size increases with increasing number of gonotrophic cycles. Therefore understanding the fundamental aspects of the mosquito's behaviour provides a pathway for the study of human-mosquito contact and mosquito population control. Control of the mosquito population densities would ultimately lead to malaria control.

A cost-effective, community-based, mosquito-trapping scheme that captures spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria transmission in rural Zambia.

BackgroundMonitoring mosquito population dynamics is essential to guide selection and evaluation of malaria vector control interventions but is typically implemented by mobile, centrally-managed teams who can only visit a limited number of locations frequently enough to capture longitudinal trends. Community-based (CB) mosquito trapping schemes for parallel, continuous monitoring of multiple locations are therefore required that are practical, affordable, effective, and reliable.MethodsA CB surveillance scheme, with a monthly sampling and reporting cycle for capturing malaria vectors, using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps (LT) and Ifakara Tent Traps (ITT), were conducted by trained community health workers (CHW) in 14 clusters of households immediately surrounding health facilities in rural south-east Zambia. At the end of the study, a controlled quality assurance (QA) survey was conducted by a centrally supervised expert team using human landing catch (HLC), LT and ITT to evaluate accuracy of the CB trapping data. Active surveillance of malaria parasite infection rates amongst humans was conducted by CHWs in the same clusters to determine the epidemiological relevance of these CB entomological surveys.ResultsCB-LT and CB-ITT exhibited relative sampling efficiencies of 50 and 7%, respectively, compared with QA surveys using the same traps. However, cost per sampling night was lowest for CB-LT ($13.6), followed closely by CB-ITT ($18.0), both of which were far less expensive than any QA survey (HLC: $138, LT: $289, ITT: $269). Cost per specimen of Anopheles funestus captured was lowest for CB-LT ($5.3), followed by potentially hazardous QA-HLC ($10.5) and then CB-ITT ($28.0), all of which were far more cost-effective than QA-LT ($141) and QA-ITT ($168). Time-trends of malaria diagnostic positivity (DP) followed those of An. funestus density with a one-month lag and the wide range of mean DP across clusters was closely associated with mean densities of An. funestus caught by CB-LT (P < 0.001).ConclusionsCB trapping schemes appear to be far more affordable, epidemiologically relevant and cost-effective than centrally supervised trapping schemes and may well be applicable to enhance intervention trials and even enable routine programmatic monitoring of vector population dynamics on unprecedented national scales.