Abstract
BackgroundMalaria continues to be one of the most devastating diseases in the world, killing more humans than any other infectious disease. Malaria parasites are entirely dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission. For this reason, vector population dynamics is a crucial determinant of malaria risk. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. Temperature and precipitation also play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles.MethodsIn this study, a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model is developed to analyse how temperature and the availability of water affect mosquito population size. In the model, the influence of ambient temperature on the development and the mortality rate of Anopheles arabiensis is considered over a region in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, the model is used to examine the impact of climatic factors on the gonotrophic cycle and the dynamics of mosquito population over the study region.ResultsThe results fairly accurately quantify the seasonality of the population of An. arabiensis over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the vector population dynamics. The model simulates the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. arabiensis. The simulated larval density produces a curve which is similar to observed data obtained from another study.ConclusionThe model is efficiently developed to predict An. arabiensis population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of various control strategies. In addition, the model framework is built to accommodate human population dynamics with the ability to predict malaria incidence in future.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1411-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
Malaria continues to be one of the most devastating diseases in the world, killing more humans than any other infectious disease
The aim of this study is to develop a deterministic mosquito model that gives a detailed account of the impact of climate variables on the population dynamics of An. arabiensis, and to consider a dynamical breeding site being influenced by rainfall and temperature
Two climatic factors and puddle dynamics are incorporated into the model to understudy the dynamics of immature An. arabiensis
Summary
Malaria continues to be one of the most devastating diseases in the world, killing more humans than any other infectious disease. Malaria parasites are entirely dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission. For this reason, vector population dynamics is a crucial determinant of malaria risk. Malaria is still one of the deadliest mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Malaria is not present on all continents, mainly occurring in Africa, South–east Asia, Central and South America. It is caused by the protozoan Plasmodium, which is transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles [2,3,4,5,6,7]. Malaria as a mosquito-borne disease is strongly influenced by climate variables (temperature, rainfall and humidity). The biting rate and gonotrophic processes are temperature dependent [7, Abiodun et al Malar J (2016) 15:364
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
