Population Birth Rates Research Articles

Статистические подходы к анализу и моделированию сезонности в демографических данных

Согласно майскому указу Президента (2018 г.), в число национальных целей и стратегических задач развития РФ на период до 2024 г. входят «обеспечение устойчивого естественного роста численности населения РФ и повышение ожидаемой продолжительности жизни до 78 лет». Возросшая необходимость мониторинга текущей демографической ситуации, изучение структуры демографических показателей, пристальное внимание научного сообщества к реализации национальных целей обусловили выбор темы настоящего исследования.
 В работе исследовались проблемы моделирования сезонности демографических показателей РФ (числа рождений, числа умерших, младенческой смертности, числа заключенных браков) по ежемесячным данным Росстата за период 2007-2018 гг. Зарубежные исследования показали, что, наряду с традиционными демографическими методами, ARIMA-модели дают хорошие результаты при прогнозировании демографических показателей (численности населения, уровня рождаемости и смертности, продолжительности жизни населения). Использование статистического подхода на основе SARIMA-моделей в данной работе позволило получить адекватные модели с хорошими статистическими и прогностическими свойствами. Стационарность процессов с учетом сезонности анализировали на основе HEGY-теста. Исследуемые в работе показатели имели ряд особенностей, которые были учтены при моделировании. Ряды числа рождений и числа умерших имели второй и первый порядки интегрируемости соответственно и содержали детерминированную сезонность, ряд числа заключенных браков имел первый порядок обычной и сезонной интегрируемости, ряд младенческой смертности не содержал сезонность, что было подтверждено на основе анализа автокорреляционной функции и периодограммы. Для анализируемых показателей в работе были построены точечные и интервальные оценки прогноза на 2019 г. Для сравнения качества прогнозирования SARIMA-моделей в работе были оценены также сезонные модели Хольта-Уинтерса.

Role of Fear in a Predator–Prey Model with Beddington–DeAngelis Functional Response

Abstract In the present article, we investigate the impact of fear effect in a predator–prey model, where predator–prey interaction follows Beddington–DeAngelis functional response. We consider that due to fear of predator the birth rate of prey population reduces. Mathematical properties, such as persistence, equilibria analysis, local and global stability analysis, and bifurcation analysis, have been investigated. We observe that an increase in the cost of fear destabilizes the system and produces periodic solutions via supercritical Hopf bifurcation. However, with further increase in the strength of fear, system undergoes another Hopf bifurcation and becomes stable. The stability of the Hopf-bifurcating periodic solutions is obtained by computing the first Lyapunov coefficient. Our results suggest that fear of predation risk can have both stabilizing and destabilizing effects.

Long-term trends in wild-capture and population dynamics point to an uncertain future for captive elephants.

Maintaining sustainable populations in captivity without supplementation through wild-capture is a major challenge in conservation that zoos and aquaria are working towards. However, the capture of wild animals continues for many purposes where conservation is not the primary focus. Wild-capture hinders long-term conservation goals by reducing remaining wild populations, but the direct and long-term indirect consequences of wild-capture for captive population viability are rarely addressed using longitudinal data. We explored the implications of changes in wild-capture on population dynamics in captivity over 54 years using a multi-generational studbook of working Asian elephants ( Elephas maximus) from Myanmar, the largest remaining captive elephant population. Here we show that population growth and birth rates declined between 1960 and 2014 with declines in wild-capture. Importantly, wild-caught females had reduced birth rates and a higher mortality risk. However, despite the disadvantages of wild-capture, the population may not be sustainable without it, with immediate declines owing to an unstable age-structure that may last for 50 years. Our results highlight the need to assess the long-term demographic consequences of wild-capture to ensure the sustainability of captive and wild populations as species are increasingly managed and conserved in altered or novel environments.

STILLBIRTHS IN EUROPE – SIGNIFICANT PUBLIC HEALTH PROBLEM

BACKGROUND Together with the achievements and efforts for further reduction of infant mortality and under-five-mortality the stillbirths remain a significant global public health problem. In 2015 the estimated number of stillbirths is 2.6 million, e.g. 7178 deaths per day (WHO). Most of these deaths occur in developing countries, but the problem is important for Europe as well in the context of ageing population and low birth rate. The aim of this report is to analyse the trends in stillbirth rates in European region since 1990s to 2015. METHODS Primary data on stillbirths were extracted from European database “Health for all”. The countries were grouped by Gross National Income (GNI) per capita according to World Bank criteria relevant to 2018-2019. The means of stillbirths in different countries groups were compared and Pearson’s correlation coefficients with GNI and other variables were calculated. Data processing was performed by SPSS v.24. RESULTS Decreasing trend in stillbirths has been observed in parallel with the increase of GNI, significantly more expressed in high-income countries. The mean stillbirth rate in the seven countries with lower-middle income was 2.5 times higher as compared to the mean for 34 high-income countries. The discrepancy in the mean GNI for both groups is over 16 times. For 12 higher-middle income countries the mean stillbirth rate is 1.5 times higher compared to high-income countries, and GNI – 6 times lower. A moderate correlation of stillbirths with GNI has been found and it increases from r=-0,305 in 1970s to r=-0,420 for 2013-2015. Some increase in correlation of stillbirths with proportion of live births to mothers aged under 20 years has also been observed - from r=+0.215 to r=+0.532. CONCLUSION Socio-economic development and decrease in early pregnancy are among the leading factors to further reduction of stillbirths in European region. Keywords: Stillbirth, European region, public health, gross national income Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE

MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECT OF BIRTH RATE ON THE FORMATION OF THE COUNTRY’S DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL

Introduction. The population was, is and will be the main component of any state. The study of the characteristics of population distribution, the number of labour resources, gender and age structure are the extremely important task. The population forms the demographic potential. Without this potential, it is impossible to develop any of the countries or the world economy as a whole. Demographic potential is the driving force of the development of the country's priorities. It is the essential need to study the problems of demographic processes, which now have a significant impact on the demographic development of the country. It is necessary to develop appropriate strategies, measures and mechanisms that will mitigate the effects of the demographic crisis. Purpose. The article aims to assess the demographic potential taking into account the gender and age structure of the Ukrainian population, as well as to identify the main opportunities of the population and assess its status. Method (methodology). To achieve this goal the methods of statistical analysis have been used. They are the method of groupings, method of relative variables, method of average variables, simulation modelling method, and index method. Results. The complex estimation of effects of the influence of demographic factors of the birth rate on the formation of demographic potential with the use of multi-factor index models has been given. The sex and age pyramids of the population of Ukraine have been constructed in the context of urban and rural settlements and in general, as well as a multifactorial index model for assessing the influence of factors on the change in the birth rate of Ukraine's population.

Migration and Nuptiality in Course of Revitalization the Economic Development of Yakutia

Over the period of semicentenial development the economic processes in Yakutia have been accompanied by large-scale migratory population movement. An active exploration of new territories resulted in migration to become a basic population change component substantially defining population age structure, birth and death rate in the region. The article considers the interrelation of migratory inflow and nuptiality changes in local territories of intensive economic development. The correlation analysis of time-series data is provided. The hypothesis is tested of existing one-year time log between a migrant arrival and wedding. It was discovered that the periods of intensified regional economic development accompanied by large-scale inflow of migrants, featured very high strength of relationship between the stream of arrivals and marriage registrations. In particular, Pearson’s pair correlation coefficient between the arrivals and marriages made up 0.885 in West Yakutia in 1960th, and 0.962 - in South Yakutia in 1970th. The revealed relationship was largely determined by a favorable proportion between the number of persons in marriable age among migrants and their commitment towards long stay in Yakutia, including their intentions to establish a family. The analysis of dynamic numbers has shown that the deep social and economic, political changes of the 1990th in the region were accompanied by radical change of migration vector and the increase in migratory seasonal component. These factors resulted in a considerably falling migratory rate, reduced or even discontinued interrelation between arrival rates and officially registered marriages.

СКІЛЬКИ МАЮТЬ ТА ХОЧУТЬ МАТИ ДІТЕЙ ЖІНКИ ДІТОРОДНОГО ВІКУ В УКРАЇНІ

Мета: вивчити та проаналізувати народжуваність дітей жінками дітородного віку.Матеріали і методи. Використано дані галузевої статистики щодо народжуваності населення, дані соціологічного опитування жінок Хмельницької області.Результати. Вивчення причин зниження народжуваності дітей в сучасних умовах показує, що цьому сприяють багато таких чинників, як зниження життєвого рівня населення, зумовлене соціально-економічною кризою, трудова еміграція жінок, державні виплати грошової допомоги при народженні дитини та субсидії, які далеко не компенсують витрати на дитину.Висновки. Отримані результати підтвердили те, що при сприятливих соціально-економічних умовах жінки дітородного віку мали б 2,02 дитини пересічно на одну жінку, що відповідало б стаціонарному типу відтворення населення.

Investigating the Role of Balance of Population and Economic Growth in Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth (Case Study: Upper-Middle Income Countries during 1985 to 2016)

Contrary to the neoclassical view, the population and its components are one of the factors affecting long-term economic growth. Some studies have pointed to the negative impact of population growth and others on its positive impact. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of population growth on economic growth from 1985 to 2007 and 1985 to 2016 among the 32 member countries of the upper-middle-income group. Using World Bank data (2016) and the panel’s method, the impact of population growth and birth rate on economic growth in two continuous periods has been investigated. The results show that the more we approach the present time, the impact of population growth and birth rate on economic growth in upper-middle-income countries decreases; consequently if the effect of these two components i.e population growth and birth rate is not controlled in this group of countries and countries with lower income, it will be led a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore, considering this research, the effect of demographic factors can be shown in the long-term; it is important to note that by declining population growth and birth rate in this group of countries, investment, the productivity of the workforce and the population in the age of activity increases. Economic growth reduces due to the disruption of the balance and the increase in population on economic power. By increasing one unit of the population growth, economic growth has achieved to 0.17% reduction in 2016 from a 0.26% increase in 2007.

Wie Wien wächst: Monitoring aktueller Trends hinsichtlich Bevölkerungs- und Siedlungsentwicklung in der Stadtregion Wien

Like other urban regions in Europe, Vienna has experienced a pronounced population growth that exceeds any previous assumptions. The study at hand discusses a methodology for a monitoring of the urban region, which was generated to assess these developments in detail. It focuses on a few but crucial indicators, namely: population growth, birth and migration rates, migration flows and building land availability on a small scale. The results show that the strong population growth is predominantly caused by high net migration gains from other parts of Austria and foreign countries. These gains have been increasing recently and focused mainly on the core city. Hence, there is a growing tendency towards (re-)urbanisation. In contrast, the numbers of suburbanisation migration are stagnating, although at a high level. Therefore, different phases of urban development can be observed at the same time, though their impact is changing. In addition, a responsible handling of the remaining land reserves and a higher building density are necessary in the future to provide housing for further population growth in the urban region. Future monitoring projects could build upon the following recommendations: First, small-scale and register-based data should be increasingly used for the analysis of urban regions. Second, scenarios for the future development are an effective method to illustrate the results. Third, such findings should be embedded increasingly in an international context, both from a planning and a scientific perspective.

Vaccination threshold size and backward bifurcation of SIR model with state-dependent pulse control

Depending on the potential susceptible human size, we consider the state-dependent integrated infectious disease control strategies including vaccination, isolation and treatment. Correspondingly, we propose a state-dependent pulse SIR model, in which whether the control measures implemented or not depends on the threshold size of susceptible population. By defining the Poincaré map, we first investigate the existence and global stability of the semi-trivial (or disease free) periodic solution, and the threshold condition is proposed. Further, by employing bifurcation theories of the one-parameter family of maps related to the Poincaré map, we then focus on the bifurcation with respect to the key parameters. The main results reveal that backward bifurcation via transcritical bifurcation or pitchfork bifurcation can occur for all the interesting parameters including isolation rate, vaccination rate, threshold susceptible population size and birth rate. The complex relationships between the basic reproduction number of classical SIR model and the threshold condition of the model with state-dependent pulse control depict that the control strategies related to the four parameters should be carefully designed, otherwise the paradoxical effects could occur and the gains cannot make up for losses. For example, too small vaccination rate will result in an increasing of threshold condition and the number of infected population. Therefore, our results suggest that when the state-dependent feedback control strategy is implemented for infectious disease control, the effective and optimal control program should take the population dynamics, the threshold susceptible population size, vaccination and isolation or treatment rate into consideration.

The influence of age-policy changes on the relative age effect across the Australian Rules football talent pathway

ObjectivesTo identify the influence of age-policy changes on the relative age effect (RAE) across the Australian Football League (AFL) talent pathway. DesignRetrospective cross-sectional analysis of junior AFL players attending the National Draft (National), State, and State Under 16s (U16) combines between 1999–2016. MethodsBirth-date data was obtained for players attending the AFL State U16 (n=663, age: 15.9±0.4years), State (n=803, age: 19.1±1.7years), National (n=1111, age: 18.3±0.8years) combines. Corresponding aged-matched Australian general population birth rate data was also collected. ResultsA chi-squared analysis comparing birth month distributions found all combine groups differed significantly from the general population (Under 16s: χ2=62.61, State: χ2=38.83, National: χ2=129.13, p<0.001). Specifically, Under 16s had greater birth frequencies for months January to March (≥2%, p<0.05), with more State players born in January (4.9%, p<0.05). Age-policy changes at the National level reduced birth distribution bias for some months, however the RAE remained for March, June and July (3.9%, 6.1%, 4.3%, p<0.05). State U16s and National players had 2–9% lower birth frequencies for November–December births compared general population. ConclusionsSelection bias exists towards older players is present at the AFL’s State U16, and is maintained at State and National level combines. Age-policy changes are only partially successful at addressing the RAE at the National level, with alternative strategies also recommended in order to address the RAE across the AFL talent pathways.

Factors Associated With Availability of Nurse-Family Partnership Programs in the State of Texas [27K

INTRODUCTION: Current teen pregnancy rates generate significant social and economic costs, with highest rates in Hispanic, African American and socioeconomically disadvantaged youth. Their children are more likely to face health problems, incarcerations, unemployment, and to perpetuate teen pregnancies. Research-supported Nurse-Family Partnerships (NFPs) involving antepartum and postpartum nurse-home visits significantly improve teen pregnancy outcomes in Texas. Our objective was to evaluate socioeconomic, obstetrical, and perinatal outcomes of Texas counties currently served by NFPs. METHODS: We analyzed Texas and national population statistics, birth rates, socioeconomic factors, and obstetrical and neonatal outcomes extracted from federal and state databases. RESULTS: Currently, 21 Texas NFPs serve eligible women in 34 out of 254 Texas counties. These counties have higher average teen birth rates (44 per 1000) and higher average maternal poverty rates (33%) than the state of Texas (34 per 1000; 30%) and the United States (21 per 1000; 27%). They also have a higher proportion of absent prenatal care (4.5%), and infants with very low birth weights (1.7%). Across Texas, access to prenatal care decreases with decreasing maternal age, and teens have the highest rate of absent prenatal care (6.6-8.5%) and lowest rate of care starting the first trimester (6.6-8.5%). Absent prenatal care was also correlated with higher representation of birth defects. CONCLUSION: Texas NFPs serve counties with relatively high rates of teen pregnancies, maternal poverty, and absent prenatal care. This baseline data allows for advocacy, funding, and expansion of NFPs in Texas counties with comparably high levels of low-income, first-time mothers, including critically underserved Texas-Mexico border counties.

COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL DATA ON DEATH AND BIRTH cases AT THE END OF XIX - BEGINNING OF XX CENTURY IN PERM PROVINCE

Aim. To determine the basic changes in analysis of statistical data on the cases of death and birth at the boundary of XIX - XX centuries and at the beginning of XXI century. Materials and methods. Analytical approaches used for studying the population number, birth and death rates at the end of XIX - beginning of XX centuries, compared with modern methods of analysis of the mentioned demographic processes, were estimated. Results. It was revealed that for analysis of demographic data at the boundary of centuries, climatic conditions were the prevailing factors in estimation of birth and death rates. When calculating the population number, religion was taken into consideration. Conclusions. In sanitary statistics, mortality was not analyzed depending on the causes of death; some categories of the population of the Russia Empire were not taken into account, so demographic picture of the region was not reflected in full measure.

Abstract B13: High-content imaging to quantitate colorectal cancer associated fibroblast heterogeneity

Abstract Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) are an important component of the tumor microenvironment known to influence various aspects of tumor progression, including response to therapy. However, this stromal cell subtype is extremely heterogeneous, both between and within individual tumors. Targeting of the CAF population has not been successful in the clinical setting, which could be due in part to the myriad of functions of different CAF subpopulations. In order to elucidate the overall implications of CAF heterogeneity, we gathered quantitative phenotypic data using a novel high-content imaging platform. Specifically, we calculated several morphological parameter values and estimated birth and death rates of individual populations of CAFs isolated from colorectal cancer patients. We also performed co-culture experiments with tumor cells and characterized the influence of different CAF populations on tumor evolutionary dynamics (i.e. birth and death rates) in response to drug treatment. Further, these features were correlated to molecular analyses (i.e. -smooth muscle actin and fibroblasts activated protein expression) and patient outcome (i.e. sites of metastasis). We observed high levels of heterogeneity in cell area and cell roundness as well as altered rates of growth in response to perturbations in oxygen levels. This quantitative method for investigating multiple cellular phenotypes provides novel insight into patient-level heterogeneity and its possible implications on response to drug. Citation Format: Colleen M. Garvey, Oscar Chen, Roy Lau, Shannon M. Mumenthaler. High-content imaging to quantitate colorectal cancer associated fibroblast heterogeneity. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Engineering and Physical Sciences in Oncology; 2016 Jun 25-28; Boston, MA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(2 Suppl):Abstract nr B13.

MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN UKRAINE

Introduction. A negative natural population growth in conditions of low positive balance of migration has led to a significant population decline in Ukraine. A long-term increase in demographic load and senescence deepening are going on. The current situation needs to conduct proper state policy that will provide the necessary conditions for increasing the birth rate and reducing mortality in the country. Therefore, it is important to analyse the birth rate and estimate the influence of factors of reproductive processes and the demographic potential of the population. Purpose. The article aims to justify the use of multi-factor index models in order to estimate the influence of factors of the demographic processes. Method (methodology). To achieve this goal we have used general scientific methods. In particular they are the methods of analysis and synthesis, system approach. Among the specific statistical methods we can distinguish the following ones: method of relative and average values, method of index analysis, and graphical methods. Results. Multi-factor index models have been constructed for estimating the influence of factors of changes on the birth rate of Ukrainian population during the time interval. The differentiation of this process in various types of settlements of the country has been analysed.

A stochastic single-species population model with partial pollution tolerance in a polluted environment

We propose a single-species population model with partial pollution tolerance in a polluted environment in this contribution, and introduce the random perturbation of the birth rate of single-species population into this model. The extinction occurs around the pollution-free equilibrium under some moderate conditions, and the stationary distribution with ergodicity is derived around the positive equilibrium. Numerical simulations demonstrate the efficiency of our main results.

A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU

AbstractDue to its ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and irregular migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural, and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC‐EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010. Next, we use the model to obtain medium‐run migration forecasts. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but probably lower than initially expected.

An Integrated Spatial Model of Population Change in South Carolina Counties

Existing studies of population change have grown to consider spatial dependence. The current literature highlights the importance of location when modeling population change. The evidence clearly suggests that population change in one area is dependent on population change in neighboring areas. What is missing in the existing literature is an analysis of which specific features in surrounding areas impact the local area. We employ a model using spatially lagged explanatory variables (SLX) to model population change in South Carolina. In addition to the normal impacts of the explanatory variables in a standard OLS regression, the SLX model measures the impact of the independent variables in contiguous areas. It also allows for eparation of spillovers from rural counties versus those from urban counties. We find that the impact of neighboring counties is distinctly different for rural versus urban counties. Local urban population growth is influenced by neighboring counties, both urban and rural. However, local rural population growth is influenced only by neighboring rural counties. For rural counties, the share of retirees and recreational activities in surrounding rural counties are significant in explaining population change. For urban population growth, birth rates, income, and single female pregnancy rates in neighboring urban counties are significant. Retiree share and single female pregnancy rates in neighboring rural counties are also significant in explaining urban population change.

Something rotten in Scandinavia: The world's earliest evidence of fermentation

Large-scale food storage has been identified at an Early Mesolithic settlement on the east coast of Sweden, implying a delayed-return subsistence strategy. The excavation and analysis of the contents of a 9200-year-old construction, combined with ethnographic analogies and modern knowledge of microbial activity, suggest that fish was fermented at the site. The identification of a foraging economy fermenting substantial amounts of fish, and conserving it for later use, thousands of years prior to farming and urbanized communities and without the use of salt, has implications for how we perceive the Early Mesolithic, suggesting semi-sedentism, technological skill and the ability to adapt rapidly to changing environmental conditions. Evidence of a delayed-return practice in Early Mesolithic foraging contexts raises questions regarding the current models used to estimate demographic parameters, such as population density and birth rate, for that time period, as well as indicating the existence of a more complex society than previously realized.

$R_0$ Analysis of a Benthic-Drift Model for a Stream Population

One key issue for theory in stream ecology is how much stream flow can be changed while still maintaining an intact stream ecology, instream flow needs (IFNs); the study of determining IFNs is challenging due to the complex and dynamic nature of the interaction between the stream environment and the biological community. We develop a process-oriented benthic-drift model that links changes in the flow regime and habitat availability with population dynamics. In the model, the stream is divided into two zones, drift zone and benthic zone, and the population is divided into two interacting compartments, individuals residing in the benthic zone and individuals dispersing in the drift zone. We study the population persistence criteria, based on the net reproductive rate $R_0$ and on related measures. We develop new theory to calculate these quantities and use them to investigate how the various flow regimes, population birth rate, individual transfer rates between zones, and river heterogeneity affect population persistence. The theory developed here provides the basis for effective decision-making tools for water managers.