MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECT OF BIRTH RATE ON THE FORMATION OF THE COUNTRY’S DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL

Abstract

Introduction. The population was, is and will be the main component of any state. The study of the characteristics of population distribution, the number of labour resources, gender and age structure are the extremely important task. The population forms the demographic potential. Without this potential, it is impossible to develop any of the countries or the world economy as a whole. Demographic potential is the driving force of the development of the country's priorities. It is the essential need to study the problems of demographic processes, which now have a significant impact on the demographic development of the country. It is necessary to develop appropriate strategies, measures and mechanisms that will mitigate the effects of the demographic crisis. Purpose. The article aims to assess the demographic potential taking into account the gender and age structure of the Ukrainian population, as well as to identify the main opportunities of the population and assess its status. Method (methodology). To achieve this goal the methods of statistical analysis have been used. They are the method of groupings, method of relative variables, method of average variables, simulation modelling method, and index method. Results. The complex estimation of effects of the influence of demographic factors of the birth rate on the formation of demographic potential with the use of multi-factor index models has been given. The sex and age pyramids of the population of Ukraine have been constructed in the context of urban and rural settlements and in general, as well as a multifactorial index model for assessing the influence of factors on the change in the birth rate of Ukraine's population.