Popular President Research Articles

Try, Try Again: Repeat Veto Threats in Presidential-Congressional Bargaining

Presidents use veto threats to bargain over legislation with Congress. While presidents may fail if Congress passes legislation over their veto threat, they also lose some power if they must repeatedly “go public” in bargaining over one bill. This article examines “repeat” veto threats: multiple veto threats issued to the same bill. Using data on all veto threats issued from 1985 through 2022, I find that presidents issue fewer repeat veto threats during unified government and when majority control of the two congressional chambers is divided. Presidents with higher approval ratings also tend to issue more repeat veto threats. Presidents avoid repeatedly “going public” when they can but more popular presidents do so if they must. I also find evidence of more repeat veto threats on spending bills, which suggests that presidential bargaining and “going public” operate differently across the authorization and appropriations processes.

Первые леди в истории США: историко-библиографический обзор

The introduction of this article delves into the author’s contemplations on the role of the first ladies of US presidents in maintaining their image and electoral appeal. The author highlights that the general public’s lack of knowledge regarding the intelligence, education, mentality, and character of first ladies is an evident historical injustice. Currently, modern historians are actively rectifying this oversight. The purpose of the study is to analyze modern literature on the role and significance of first ladies in the history and political life of the United States and to provide a chronology of published biographical research on this issue in English-language and domestic historiography. The methodology employed is rooted in specialized historical research methods, including comparative-historical analysis, which allows for an exploration of research trends in this historical domain. Additionally, historical systemic and retrospective methods are employed, along with elements of the historical biographical method. The author’s historiographical analysis is founded on principles of historicism and historical objectivity. The materials used in the study are memoirs, biographical essays, documents, scientific monographs and articles, and Internet resources, including the official websites of the White House and the National First Ladies’ Library. The “Analysis” section contains the main part of the article’s text, that is, an analysis of literature and other sources, including autobiographies and memoirs of first ladies, interesting information about the authors of modern biographical studies, as well as the chronological order of published works of Englishlanguage and domestic authors. The results of the research are encapsulated in the author’s conclusions on the topic. It is determined that the historiography surrounding the role and significance of first ladies in American history is currently underdeveloped and, often, subjectively biased. Typically, more attention and subsequent publications are dedicated to the spouses of the most popular presidents, overshadowing other first ladies, even if they were remarkable individuals themselves.

More Than Three Meals per Day

More Than Three Meals per Day

Polls, Politics and Disaster Relief: Evidence from Federal SBA Loan programs

We study how the popularity of an incumbent president can influence the generosity of the relief effort in response to a natural disaster as reflected in the federal SBA loan program. We document that the loan amounts relative to reported damages are higher when popularity of the incumbent president is lower. This result is consistent with the catering view of disaster relief where the president approves higher amounts when his popularity is at a low point but may hold his ground when his popularity is high. We find that this catering behavior is amplified when public sentiment regarding the disaster is high (as measured by a metric designed from Google search volume).When the public sentiment is very high even a popular president may approve high disaster aid, further supporting our catering view. We also examine the effect of other factors that increase the political importance of the disaster (e.g., swing county, campaign donations, first term, and number of presidential visits) and find evidence of increased catering. Finally, there is some evidence of interaction of catering with credit scoring rules, suggesting discrimination in loan provision in favor of richer counties and against counties with a high percentage of African Americans. Our findings point to a new venue for politics in climate change in the area of disaster relief.

Trusting the Dependent Judiciary: Evidence From Ecuador

The literature on judicial politics has assumed that judicial independence and trust in the judiciary go hand in hand. Based on evidence from Ecuador, I show that citizens’ trust and support for the judiciary can increase despite decreasing levels of judicial independence, which I argue is largely driven by citizens’ approval of executive performance in office. Popular presidents send cues to their constituents regarding how and why the judiciary should be trusted, despite its institutional flaws. These results open the possibility to question whether public trust in the judiciary necessarily stems from the presence of independent judicial institutions.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a popular president who has all the media coverage: Content analysis of the press (2016-2018)

In his first speech, in March 2016, as 20th Portuguese President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa guaranteed that every Portuguese person was rooted in his first determining thought. It was in the people that President Marcelo found legitimacy to develop everything he sought. But will this concern in building bridges, in bringing others closer to him, be reflected on the journalistic coverage that his work raises? From the analysis of the first two years of his term, what is striking is the depiction of a President who wants everyone close to him, and yet the whole daily press discourse is centred on him. The President has consistently aligned himself with different social actors and has made a visible effort to expand his political action to different Portuguese regions and also to several other countries. However, the President is the main source and hegemonic voice in journalistic discourse. 
 This research begins with the following question: How does the journalistic coverage of President Marcelo's activity, during his two-year term of office (2016-2018), concur with and guarantee the principles of autonomy and exemption in the news construction? Taking into account this research question, in methodological terms, this study will analyse the two years of journalistic coverage of the presidential activity, from a set of daily and weekly newspapers. The technique of content analysis will be used, in a categorical approach, following Bardin’s (2013) and Lopes & Espírito Santo’s (2016) previous framework. The expected results are the identification of the relationship between the political involvement of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as President and the construction of the press message, combined with the potential introduction of a new role for the President as a political and media actor of the democratic system.

A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing?

Jovan Rašković, the popular founding president of Croatia’s Serbian Democratic Party (Srpska demokratska stranka, SDS), is widely viewed as representing a “missed opportunity” for peace in Croatia in 1990–1991, a moderate advocate of “cultural autonomy” and equality within Croatia who was undermined by the aggressive politics of Slobodan Milošević’s Serbia, which supported instead the territorial and separatist ideas of Milan Babić. This support is considered a key component of Milošević’s intervention in Croatia and is often viewed as decisive in foreclosing opportunities for a peaceful settlement of Croat–Serb relations. This article challenges this interpretation, arguing that the SDS’s politics were premised from the start on the notion that the Serbs in Croatia were a “sovereign nation” with the right to self-determination up to secession. If Croatia remained in a Yugoslav federation, this meant that Serbs could opt for a wide variety of rights within Croatia, including forms of territorial autonomy. In the event of Yugoslavia’s disintegration or transformation into a confederation, the Serbian minority could secede from Croatia. The differences between Rašković and Babić have been considerably overstated, and some of the SDS’s more moderate rhetoric fundamentally misunderstood. It was Rašković, not Babić or Milošević, who founded the territorial and separatist politics of the Serbian Democratic Party in Croatia.

Voting Deliberatively: FDR and the 1936 Presidential Election Campaign. By Mary E.Stuckey. University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 2015. 154 pp.

Voting Deliberatively: FDR and the 1936 Presidential Election Campaign. By Mary E. Stuckey. University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 2015. 154 pp. When considering Franklin Delano Roosevelt's presidential campaigns, the first one likely to come to mind is his trouncing of Herbert Hoover in 1932, an election that took place in the midst of the Great Depression and one in which Roosevelt defeated a highly unpopular Hoover by more than 17 percentage points in the popular vote and won the Electoral College by a margin of 413 votes. Roosevelt's famed First Hundred Days and myriad legislative accomplishments in his first term set up his even more lopsided defeat of Kansas governor Alf Landon in the election of 1936. This time, Roosevelt received over 60 percent of the popular vote while winning all but two states. FDR's triumph in 1936 is often seen as simply the second of four decisive campaigns, as well as an affirmation that he was one of the most popular presidents of the modern era. But Mary E. Stuckey's Voting Deliberatively suggests that the 1936 election was more than a mere stepping stone in Roosevelt's storied political career. Stuckey argues that the election of 1936 was, in fact, fraught with uncertainty, as criticism of Roosevelt from both the Left and the Right was unceasing, and continued economic uncertainty, high unemployment, and political upheaval left the election as anything but a foregone conclusion. More importantly, though, Stuckey argues that it was also a watershed moment in American politics, one that ushered in several new elements of political campaigning that are still with us today. To Stuckey, the election of 1936 is an under-examined, yet important moment in American history. Dissecting Roosevelt's campaign into its various features, Voting Deliberatively identifies four pioneering and intentional strategies that Roosevelt and his aides employed: new ways of assessing public opinion; the mobilization of voters through what we now refer to as a ground game; identifying and segmenting blocks of voters by group affiliation (women, blue collar, Protestant, etc.); and employing persuasive appeals that signaled a new kind of presidential rhetoric, one that was both authoritative and deeply personal. According to Stuckey, Roosevelt's 1936 campaign was the first to use both anecdotal and nominally scientific means of understanding the concerns and attitudes of the American public. Stuckey describes the various ways in which Roosevelt's team members embarked on an unprecedented data collection program that allowed them to quantitatively assess both the electorate as a whole and individual demographic slices of the American populace--advances that Stuckey argues had both positive and negative ramifications for American democracy. …

Presidential Popularity and the Politics of Distributing Federal Funds in Argentina

This article studies the main factors that affect the allocation of non-earmarked federal funds to subnational units in Argentina between 1999 and 2009. The main contribution is that it brings presidential popularity together with presidential structural and partisan preferences for distribution into the analysis. It argues that electorally strong and popular presidents tend to increase transfers to developing districts and reduce allocations to richer districts. Investing in developing provinces is more efficient, and governors from these districts tend to support redistributive presidents and be weaker political challengers than governors from richer units. In contrast, weaker presidents are less capable of resisting pressures from governors from larger and richer districts. There is also more distribution to developing regions when presidents have a larger share of partisan allies there and fewer in richer states. The article discusses these results, compares them with competitive claims, and explores implications for the comparative debate.

Can Anyone Stop the President? Power Asymmetries and Term Limits in Latin America, 1984–2016

AbstractSince the late twentieth century, numerous Latin American nations have launched efforts to relax presidential term limits, often successfully. This article discusses the conditions under which countries succeed in relaxing term limits. Drawing from bargaining models and reviewing 36 cases, it makes three arguments. First, actors' preferences are fairly predictable on the basis of officeholding: presidents are the most prominent actors pushing for expansion of term limits; opposition parties lead the resistance. Second, power asymmetry, measured by presidential approval ratings, is the best predictor of success, better than ideology or share of seats in Congress. Third, the only hope for stopping popular presidents rests with ruling parties and the courts, but only when the latter are sufficiently independent.

Public Opinion Toward Presidential Power

According to more than a half‐century of scholarship, a president's prestige is one of his primary sources of power. In this article, we examine the public's attitudes toward the levers of presidential power. Using data from a nationally representative survey, we show that respondents who provided higher approval ratings of the president were significantly more supportive of presidential powers. These findings provide striking evidence that views toward executive power are shaped by presidential approval and suggest that popular presidents can use their prestige to expand the scope of powers available to the presidency.

Market-Oriented Reforms as a Tool of State-Building: Russian Pension Reform in 2001

Despite domestic opposition and several policy alternatives, in 2001 the Russian government adopted a pension reform that was potentially costly and had uncertain long-term benefits. Demographic and fiscal pressures created the desire to reform and a more cooperative Duma made it possible to do so. These points do not explain why Putin chose the pension privatisation option. Russia's pension reform is best understood as part of a state-building strategy to diminish the role of powerful bureaucracies. Russia's welfare state was not merely the product of a powerful and popular president, but rather a tool to create a stronger executive.

The visit of the most popular American of the day: Theodore Roosevelt in Hungary

It is a well-known fact that Theodore Roosevelt was and still is one of the most popular presidents of the United States. It is also somewhat known that he had a relatively brief, and relatively good relationship with Count Albert Apponyi, one of the most influential politicians of Hungary in the first three decades of the twentieth century. Perhaps a somewhat lesser known fact is that Roosevelt visited Hungary in 1910. As part of a European tour in the spring of that year, Theodore Roosevelt spent three days in Hungary. The courtesy visit was made into a huge and significant- looking event in Hungary behind which there were certain wishes, bitterness, and propaganda aims on the part of the Hungarian political leadership. Hungary hoped by the virtue of the ex-President’s visit to prove the country’s equal standing with Austria within the Dual Monarchy. Furthermore, the well-educated Roosevelt knew exactly what his hosts wanted to hear and, accordingly, although inadvertently, he kindled the flames of Hungarian independence, a concept with which he did not agree. The paper wishes to tell the story of Theodore Roosevelt’s short stay in Hungary as well as the importance, and lack of consequences, of such a visit.

Popular Presidents Can Affect Congressional Attention, for a Little While

Does the president have the ability to set the congressional agenda? Agenda setting is a prerequisite for influence, so this is an important element in understanding presidential–legislative relations. We focus on the State of the Union address and show that popular presidents can, indeed, cause Congress to shift attention to those topics most emphasized. The impact is tempered by divided government and time, however. No matter the state of divided government, however, popular presidents can direct congressional attention, at least for a little while. Unpopular presidents, by contrast, are irrelevant.

The Supreme Court and Public Opinion in Times of War and Crisis

Observers have long speculated about the effect of war on judicial behavior. While common lore maintains that courts are reluctant to affirm claims against the government in wartime, over the past sixty years a number of notable cases have gone against the U.S. government. Recently, empirical research has suggested that the Supreme Court does not rule differently on war-related cases which reach the Court during wartime versus those which reach the Court after the relevant war has ended. We consider the role of public opinion as a possible explanatory variable in wartime cases, noting that in a number of important verdicts which have gone against the elected branches, public opinion showed high levels of disapproval for the President, the war, or both. We examine notable Supreme Court verdicts in the separation of powers and in cases concerning claims for executive power during the period 1938 to 2008. Historically, popular presidents have won in the courts, while weaker Presidents have been less successful. We further argue that researchers must ask at what stage in a crisis was the Court’s the decision made, what was the President’s own popularity at that point in the war or crisis, what was the public’s perception of the credibility of the threat or emergency, and what was the public’s attitude about the policies the President was urging or enacting.

The Death of President Warren G. Harding

Warren G. Harding, the 29th President of the United States (Figure 1), died in office in 1923, at age 57, of “natural causes,” the 1st to do so since Zachary Taylor in 1850. He had been a popular President, elected 3 years earlier by a wide margin over his Democratic opponent. 1. Ferrell R.H. The strange deaths of President Harding. University of Missouri Press, Columbia (MO)1996 Google Scholar , 2. Dean J.W. Warren G. Harding. Henry Holt & Co., New York2004 Google Scholar , 3. Murray R.K. The Harding era. Warren G. Harding and his administration. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis (MN)1969 Google Scholar , 4. Russell F. The shadow of blooming grove: Warren G. Harding in his times. McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York1968 Google Scholar , 5. Anthony C.S. Florence Harding: The First Lady, the jazz age, and the death of America's most scandalous president. William Morrow & Co., New York1998 Google Scholar His death was presented to the press and the public as an unexpected acute event that occurred during his ambitious cross-country tour by special train and then by ship to Alaska. This was called a “voyage of understanding” to meet the American people. He died in a San Francisco hotel room of an illness diagnosed 1st as food poisoning, then as “apoplexy” and still later as a “heart attack.” After his death, his reputation was marred by financial scandals involving cabinet members and other high-ranking officials and by damaging revelations about Harding's personal life. The nature and management of his illness stirred great controversy at the time, and many unresolved issues remain even now. 5. Anthony C.S. Florence Harding: The First Lady, the jazz age, and the death of America's most scandalous president. William Morrow & Co., New York1998 Google Scholar In this report, we will review the available clinical data, attempting to make a diagnosis in modern terms and to evaluate the quality of his medical care.

Introduction: The Cellularity and Continuity of Protest in Brazil

(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)It is not enough to say, as the French do, that their nation was taken unawares.-Karl Marx, The 18th Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte(Marx 1963:21)As the echoes of the World Cup die away, and the Olympics are poised to alight in Brazil, the world is watching closely. Last summer (or winter, as they call it down south), a series of street protests erupted over a hike in bus fares. This seemingly trivial augmentation of public transportation rates (about US $0.10) catalyzed an already well-organized group (the Free Fare Movement) to put together massive demonstrations in Brazil's major cities. The speed, efficiency, and size of these protests quickly led to the reduction of the fare, but not before the protests had become even larger and considerably more amorphous (Ortellado, Lima, and Pomar 2014). It turned out that despite all the order and progress (the words emblazoned on the Brazilian flag) Brazilians across lines of race, gender, and social class, were upset about a whole bunch of things: spending on the World Cup and Olympics, lack of government services and infrastructure, gender inequality, political corruption, educational inadequacies, and police violence. The mainstream media attempted to trivialize the protests by wondering how people could get so fussy about a tiny rise in fares. A series of street signs replied: It's NOT just the 20 cents, stupid.The protests flew in the face of developmentalist thinking. International financial analysts, political pundits, investors, and journalists writing for publications like The Economist had, up until that point, been framing Brazil as a BRIC success (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). Its economy had been growing quickly. The middle class (as indexed by car ownership) had expanded. The World Cup and Olympics were coming. Everything was coming up roses. And yet, all of a sudden, the streets were filled with angry people. Adding to the confusion was the fact that the federal administration at the time was led by a left-leaning successor to the most popular president of all time-Lula. President Dilma Roussef herself had participated in anti-dictatorship protests between 1964 and 1985, and had even been tortured by right-wing military bureaucrats. How could the people be mad with the likes of her? And then, adding a final flourish of incomprehensibility, some observers were flummoxed by the fact that a considerable amount of this upset might derive from money spent on soccer. Surely this was the sacred animating force behind the distinctness of this South American people; would there soon be protests over Carnival and Brazil's special kind of rum, cachaca, some wondered incredulously?The articles in this collection explore these paradoxes. Three of them were originally solicited for a series in Cultural Anthropology called Hot Spots (Collins, Gutterres, and Holston). The shorter essays to be found there are part of an admirable attempt to make anthropological writing more accessible and concise; all those pieces can be read during a visit to the bathroom. However, these three authors felt that longer pieces might be able to contribute something different to the discussion, and so we are printing those longer contributions here. …

Party Responsiveness to the Collective Judgment of the Electorate

Studies on retrospective voting argue that voters under presidentialism tend to assign co-responsibility for the president’s performance to her party in congressional elections. However, it is not uncommon for presidential parties to distance themselves from an unpopular president or for opposition parties to cooperate with a popular president. In doing so, parties can signal to voters that they side with a popular (or against an unpopular) president. Yet little is known about whether this strategic behavior has electoral payoffs. This study proposes a popularity-response model, where parties’ electoral outcomes are a product of how they respond to public opinion on the president. I hypothesize that parties defecting from an unpopular president (or cooperating with a popular president) minimize electoral losses and obtain a further electoral boost. Analysis using an original dataset coding issue congruence between presidents and parties prior to 35 elections in 18 Latin American countries supports this claim.

The Philippines in 2013: Popular President Confronts Daunting Challenges

The Philippines in 2013: Popular President Confronts Daunting Challenges

Redistribution of Electoral Votes: Following the Constitution, Nebraska, and Maine to More Equal Representation in Presidential Elections

Electoral College Reform is a renewed topic of conversation in the wake of each presidential election. This paper explores the elections of 1800, 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000 and the failures of the Electoral College to elect the popular vote's president, as well as looking at the 2012 election and how the College nearly failed again. With these elections in mind, I propose the nation-wide adoption of the Congressional District Plan method of distributing electoral votes. This plan maintains the constitutional structure of the Electoral College while concentrating the vote distribution to the congressional districts of a state rather than on a state-wide basis, and provides a more accurate representation of the will of the people of the United States. Included in this paper are the outcomes the elections of 1968-2012 under the Congressional District Plan, which indicates a potential tie in the 2012 election.