Blends of poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) are widely used as a model system for bulk heterojunction active layers developed for solution-processable, flexible solar cells. In this work, vertical concentration profiles within the P3HT:PCBM active layer are predicted based on a thermodynamic analysis of the constituent materials and typical solvents. Surface energies of the active layer components and a common transport interlayer blend, poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) poly(styrenesulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS), are first extracted using contact angle measurements coupled with the acid-base model. From this data, intra- and interspecies interaction free energies are calculated, which reveal that the thermodynamically favored arrangement consists of a uniformly blended "bulk" structure capped with a P3HT-rich air interface and a slightly PCBM-rich buried interface. Although the "bulk" composition is solely determined by P3HT:PCBM ratio, composition near the buried interface is dependent on both the blend ratio and interaction free energy difference between solvated P3HT and PCBM deposition onto PEDOT:PSS. In contrast, the P3HT-rich overlayer is independent of processing conditions, allowing kinetic formation of a PCBM-rich sublayer during film casting due to limitations in long-range species diffusion. These thermodynamic calculations are experimentally validated by angle-resolved X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and low energy XPS depth profiling, which show that the actual composition profiles of the cast and annealed films closely match the predicted behavior. These experimentally derived profiles provide clear evidence that typical bulk heterojunction active layers are predominantly characterized by thermodynamically stable composition profiles. Furthermore, the predictive capabilities of the comprehensive free energy approach are demonstrated, which will enable investigation of structurally integrated devices and novel active layer systems including low band gap polymers, ternary systems, and small molecule blends.