Political Forecasting Research Articles

Conditions of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Political Forecasting

A reanalysis and extension of Montgomery, Hollenbach, and Ward (2012) shows that the predictive performance of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) strongly depends on the conditions of the forecasting problem. EBMA is of limited value in situations with small samples and many component forecasts, a situation that is common for social science prediction problems. These results conform to a large body of research, which has determined that simple approaches to combining (such as equal weights) often perform as well as sophisticated approaches when combining forecasts. Simple averages are easy to describe, easy to understand, and easy to use. They should be favored over more complex methods unless one has strong evidence that differential weights will improve accuracy.

Forecasting Turkish local elections

Abstract The literature on political forecasting is large, although the main focus of this literature is limited to a number of countries. Nevertheless, and despite the major differences between political systems, scientific forecasting work has proved to be broadly possible, with noteworthy extensions to new countries. This article extends the literature further by developing a new forecasting model for local elections in Turkey. The basic motivation of this article is to test the usefulness of political forecasting in the contexts of alternative democratic settings. Turkey, in that sense, seems to be an interesting case for a number of reasons. First, the Turkish Republic has been a multi-party democracy since the mid-1940s. Although it has been interrupted by three military coups, the party and election system in Turkey has brought real alternations in the government starting from very early years of the multi-party system. So, it is plausible to argue that Turkish voters have the tradition of evaluating the performances of political parties, as in any other Western-type democracy. That is to say, the dynamics of evaluations of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to other contemporary democracies, being driven by economic and political forces. The main contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model, which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables across local elections in Turkey by using reliable, public, and macro-level data. In particular, this study offers a new forecasting model which tries to forecast the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi, AKP) vote share in 81 cities.

Complexity at large

Complexity at large

A Quantitative Political Spectrum and Forecasting of Social Evolution

A Quantitative Political Spectrum and Forecasting of Social Evolution

Social Forecasting: Evolving a Model for Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry

The present research is an application of social forecasting. On a broader plank, Can future be forecasted? The answer is not affirmative. If there is something known or defined as ‘the future’ then it can be attempted. The word future is a relational term (Bell, 1973) it can be discussed as the future of something. Is it possible to forecast results? The answer is more not affirmative. Forecasts can specify the constraints or limits within which decisions can be effective. Forecasting has different modes. Social forecasting differs from other modes in its scope and techniques. The most important distinction is study of sociological variables that are independent or exogenous and least precise, which affect the behaviour of other variables. In the present study, an attempt is made to study sociological variables such as individualization of work and value priorities and project them within the social framework of business process outsourcing industry. Business process outsourcing industry is the fastest growing industry creating highest number of jobs across the world (Holman, Batt and Holtgrewe, 2007) and India is a major player in the this sector. The industry’s variability, novelty, technological intensity, work intensity with new sociological, anthropological, and economic networks at the intersection of globalization provide challenging opportunities for research. Ferni and Metcalf (1998) undertook pioneering research with respect to human resources issues and called the industry as modern age sweatshops far from the depiction of knowledge worker of twenty first century. In India, the employees are paid higher salaries compared to other industries for same qualifications. The industry is growing at highest rates compared to other industry sectors, indicating a win-win situation for all stakeholders. However, the industry is facing highest attrition rates in the world to the tune of 40%, with employees complaining disillusionment with jobs. Press publishes violation of cultural codes and changing lifestyles of employees. This context, present study is undertaken to address the issue of job attrition by using methodology given by social forecasting. The study is organized into five chapters. The first chapter introduces the genesis of Business Process Outsourcing Industry, its definition, growth, human resources issues, and discusses research for the past decade. This is to understand the nuances of industry that are different from that of Information technology industry as well as from other industries. It tries to portray human resources challenges of the Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry and in the process establishes need, objectives, and significance of the study. Social forecasting which permits use of eclectic approach is introduced with definition, its relation with other types of forecasting, model procedure and validation process with required elaboration. Economic forecasting, demographic forecasting technological forecasting and political forecasting is provided for BPO industry for the period 2009-2014. The second chapter deals with literature survey and has four objectives. The first is to provide contextual clarity and examine the research with respect to BPO organizations in the areas relating to job attrition and job satisfaction, and in the process, establishing gaps in the literature. The second objective is to answer the need for social forecasting and initiation of social forecasting process. The third objective is to consider conceptual model for research and the fourth objective is to present typology of BPO organization. As suggested by researchers, social forecasting commence with the study of values. A detailed study of values is undertaken to clarify definitional issues. Values and its relation to attitude and behavior are reviewed. Role scope and need for its study is examined. The concept of individualization and its importance for study in the era of changes in life course and network economies is deliberated. A model for present research is discussed.

Election Forecasting: The Future of the Presidency and the House

This article is about a simple two-variable equation forecasting presidential election outcomes and a three-variable equation forecasting seat change in House elections. Over the past two decades a cottage industry of political forecasting has developed (Lewis-Beck and Rice 1992; Campbell and Garand 2000). At the 1994 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, several participants offered their forecasts of the upcoming midterm House elections. Unfortunately, not one of the forecasters was within 20 seats of the actual outcome. If, however, these forecasts had been pooled, as Gaddie (1997) points out, then they would have come remarkably close to the actual seat change that occurred. Moving forward, at the 1996 APSA Annual Meeting the collection of forecasters did a much better job with that year's presidential election. The forecasters also got the overall popular vote outcome correct at the 2000 APSA Annual Meeting for that year's presidential election. We all forecasted a victory for Al Gore, with James Campbell coming the closest to the actual total (50.2%) at 52.8%. At the panel at the 2004 APSA Annual Meeting almost every forecaster predicted the actual outcome correctly. Forecasting elections holds us accountable—we cannot go back and change our forecast for an election after it has occurred. Moreover, if we stick with one forecast, it easy to judge the overall accuracy of our equations.

Uncertainty analysis in political forecasting

Medicine, engineering, and finance are traditional fields for the application of Fuzzy Logic (FL); however, in social sciences, the utilization of FL can be intensely explored as a valuable analysis instrument. Joining fuzzy with Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), the natural complex and uncertain criteria of social problems can be adequately explored. A suitable uncertainty analysis is the focal point in the social field. In this direction, an intelligent computational method for election forecasting is proposed as a practical result of this research. The main objective is to present a more flexible methodology for political assessment comparing to traditional methods.

Uncertainty analysis in political forecasting

Medicine, engineering, and finance are traditional fields for the application of Fuzzy Logic (FL); however, in social sciences, the utilization of FL can be intensely explored as a valuable analysis instrument. Joining fuzzy with Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), the natural complex and uncertain criteria of social problems can be adequately explored. A suitable uncertainty analysis is the focal point in the social field. In this direction, an intelligent computational method for election forecasting is proposed as a practical result of this research. The main objective is to present a more flexible methodology for political assessment comparing to traditional methods.

Special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on Political Forecasting

Special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on Political Forecasting

Economic Performance, Management Competence and the Outcome of the Next General Election

The paper discusses the prospects for successfully forecasting the outcome of the next UK general election. It focuses on the problem of deciding which estimation period should be used in order to produce a particular set of political forecasts. A series of forecasting equations are developed based partly on different estimation periods and partly on different assumptions about which particular economic perceptions will prove decisive in British politics over the next year or so. Although the precise results of the various forecasting models differ, they all converge on the conclusion that the Conservatives are unlikely to recover sufficiently on the basis of purely economic considerations to win the next general election.

On the degree of adequacy of the political forecasts

On the degree of adequacy of the political forecasts

Forecasting political preferences and election outcomes in the UK: Experiences, problems and prospects for the next general election

Recent attempts to forecast movements in UK party popularity are reviewed and the major problems of political forecasting in the UK are discussed. A forecasting model for the current UK Parliamentary term is developed which focuses on the importance of aggregate personal economic expectations. A series of simulations are performed which make different assumptions about gdp growth and changed in real interest rates in the period through to mid 1997. It is concluded that the Conservative government cannot reasonably expect to win the 1996/1997 UK general election by using the general macroeconomic strategy of progressive interest rate reductions that was successfully followed in 1982–1983, 1986–1987 and 1991–1992. An alternative strategy, based perhaps on tax reductions in 1995 and 1996, offers the most obvious prospect of electoral (if not economic) success.

A Political Forecast

A Political Forecast

Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections

We address two questions: How do people form their expectations about the likely winner of the next general election? and What are the links between expectations and votes? Using data collected by the Gallup organization in Great Britain, we find that the expectations formation process (1) has a significant inertia component but also a rapid adjustment to current information; (2) reflects voters' ability to translate economic expectations into political forecasts; and (3) is “time-bounded,” possessing special characteristics immediately before and after a general election. The analysis also confirms the existence of a small bandwagon effect, whereby expectations that one party will win inflate that party's vote. The ability of voters to make reasonable forecasts without being unduly influenced by their own preferences suggests that under normal circumstances voters are expressing real preferences and not simply following the crowd.

1992–97 world political risk forecast

George Bush's catchy but empty phrase—“new world order”—is likely to become uncomfortably ironic in 1992 as the forces of disorder create both risks and opportunities for international business.

The Biological Encounter: Disease and the Ideological Domain

T HE GENERALLY UNTROUBLED INITIAL YEARS of contact between whites and Indians were undoubtedly marked by mutual appraisal, measured speculation, political forecasts, and economic projections. Standing in the shadows, however, during what must have been exhilarating times, was disaster: European-introduced disease. As one of a number of concerns that accompanied the largely economic thrust of the encounter, this was the most insidious and most destructive to native people. It is not as if American Indians had no experience with illness and debilitation. Despite the not-infrequent descriptions by early European observers of robust, well-formed, and comely Indian men, women, and children, there were any number of chronic and uncomfortable maladies that affected their well-being (Van der Donck 1968:72-73; Hall 1910:86; Heckewelder 1876:220-221). Much before the historic period, a shift in subsistence from generalized hunting and gathering to maize-based horticulture had occurred. With farming came increased sedentism and population densities, a less balanced diet, and seasonal food shortage risks that often resulted in chronic, although low levels of malnutrition and low-grade infections (Wilkinson et al. 1984; Cohen and Armelagos 1984). Over the centuries, however, Indians had formed their own theories of disease and devised their own ways of treating its symptoms. At the same time, they were able to attend to a whole range of injuries sustained in the routine of everyday life and the trials of warfare (Sagard 1939:192-204; Penn 1912:233; Gehring and Starna 1988:10, 17-18; Heckewelder 1876:224-227). What is true is that Indians did not suffer from so-called crowdtype infections, such as smallpox and measles, until these were carried in by the Europeans. Nevertheless, neither were Indians diseasefree. According to anthropologist Marshall Newman (1976:669), aboriginal New World diseases included many that can be traced to the primate ancestry of all humans and had either accompanied the

1991 World political risk forecast

Almost overnight the political risk map for the decade has been redrafted. This annual forecast of key risk factors keeps score for some 85 countries.

1990 World political risk forecast

Recent events have rewritten the political risk map, for the immediate future and perhaps for the 21st century. Regional issues are charted and key risk factors are scored for 86 countries.

1989 World political and economic risk forecast

Our Political and Economic Forecast Chart (an annual feature in Planning Review), highlights the risks and opportunities to international business as we see them from our perspective as editors of Political Risk Services (PRS) publications, and as the organizers of PRS semiannual conferences on political risk.

1986 World political risk forecast

1986 World political risk forecast