Forecasting political preferences and election outcomes in the UK: Experiences, problems and prospects for the next general election

Abstract

Recent attempts to forecast movements in UK party popularity are reviewed and the major problems of political forecasting in the UK are discussed. A forecasting model for the current UK Parliamentary term is developed which focuses on the importance of aggregate personal economic expectations. A series of simulations are performed which make different assumptions about gdp growth and changed in real interest rates in the period through to mid 1997. It is concluded that the Conservative government cannot reasonably expect to win the 1996/1997 UK general election by using the general macroeconomic strategy of progressive interest rate reductions that was successfully followed in 1982–1983, 1986–1987 and 1991–1992. An alternative strategy, based perhaps on tax reductions in 1995 and 1996, offers the most obvious prospect of electoral (if not economic) success.