When rebels lose: The impact of civil war legacies on contemporary electoral outcomes in Peru, 2011–2021

Abstract

Existing research on the electoral legacies of civil wars lacks a comprehensive understanding of the conditions under which certain expectations are valid. To bridge this gap, I explore the impact of Peru's civil war in the 1980s on contemporary electoral outcomes. Peru represents a case where the rebels were defeated by the Fujimori government, despite being responsible for a larger share of the violence. Using a unique dataset at the district level, I analyze the vote shares for Keiko Fujimori and her three primary left-wing opponents in the first rounds of the last three presidential elections. The findings indicate that Fujimori gains a premium in districts more affected by the conflict, while left-wing candidates experience an electoral disadvantage. A detailed analysis of the 2021 election shows that Pedro Castillo was able to offset this negative impact in poorer districts and those more severely affected by COVID-19.