Political Opponents Research Articles

Formulas for Autocratic Stability: A Review Article

Abstract Drawing on the analytical framework of Johannes Gerschewski's The Two Logics of Autocratic Rule, we explore the complexities of autocratic stability by examining the mechanisms through which autocrats preserve their regimes. We review Gerschewski's data set and arguments and provide our assessment regarding the empirical validity of Gerschewski's theory and tests. While Gerschewski's two logics of autocratic rule offer insightful understandings, the role of situational dynamics, international intervention, and political succession in influencing autocratic stability are underrated or neglected. The survival of an autocratic regime is not solely based on the prevention and preemption of challenges from political opponents, but also depends on the performance of regular governance functions along with a monopoly of political power and the resolution of leadership issues. The path-dependent nature of autocratic stability requires analysis of autocratic regime subtypes to effectively contextualize and generalize the patterns of political succession under different logics of autocratic rule. Lacking a comprehensive characterization of autocratic subtypes, the main contribution of Gerschewski's book is more theoretical than empirical.

Репрессивные практики противоборствующих сторон в Кабарде в период российской революции (1917–1920 гг.)

This article investigates the issues surrounding the application of repressive practices in Kabarda during the period of the revolution and the civil war from 1917 to 1920. It examines the factors that led to a transition toward violence among the opposing factions and the nature of its escalation. It is emphasized that the political actors who came to power primarily sought to eliminate their opponents, represented by the previous ruling elite, and subsequently targeted broad segments of the population as public protest activity and resistance to the prevailing political course increased. The article also elucidates the forms of repressive practices employed during this tumultuous period. The most severe of these was the physical elimination of political adversaries, a tactic utilized by both sides in the civil conflict within the region. Arrest and incarceration were also frequently employed. Other forms of repression, predominantly exercised by the Bolshevik regime, included the disenfranchisement of individuals, conscription for forced labor, and confiscation of property.

Titik Equilibrium Bebas dari Penyebaran Hoax Pemilu Lewat Media Sosial Tiktok

Election issues are sensitive information among the society because they relate to people's survival in terms of work, economy and education. Election hoaxes where information whose truth cannot be ascertained becomes a weapon used by certain parties to bring down political opponents. Social media such as TikTok is a media that is often used to spread hoaxes because TikTok social media users come from various ages and there is no distance or time between users. In this paper, a mathematical model is presented to see how the equilibrium point is to be free from hoax based on the basic reproduction number R0. The spread of hoaxes on social media occurs if R0 > 1 and does not occur if R0 < 1. The model approach used is the SEIR mathematical model because it is seen that there are people who receive hoax videos (exposed) and then spread them without finding out the truth (infected), and users with this condition it needs to be recovered. The method used in this research is a literature review. The results obtained show that the mathematical model presented shows that the basic reproduction number R0 is zero (R0 < 1). This means that there will be no spread of election hoaxes

Institutionally crafted Amhara-domination narrative: an existential threat to Amhara people

ABSTRACT Political narrative is an instrument for political actors to construct a shared meaning, and it can be harnessed to harm political opponents. The Italian invaders, the Ethiopian Student Movement, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Front, and the incumbent regime contributed in varying degrees to the Amhara domination narrative. TPLF, in its political manifesto and later in the 1995 FDRE constitution, institutionally crafted an anti-Amhara narrative, reaching a crescendo after Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018. Thus, this research article tried to scrutinise and weigh the discourse of institutionally crafted Amhara existential threats. The study employed a qualitative research tradition and an exploratory research design approach that involved a political-economic analysis. The study finds that the century-old Amhara domination narrative, coupled with institutionally supported recurrent mass killings and expulsion, especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Amhara regional states, posed a real and perceived existential threat that gave birth to the Amhara Fano armed struggle.

A Matter of Respect: A Review Essay about Respect and Loathing in American Democracy: Polarization, Moralization, and the Undermining of Equality

Abstract In their new and theoretically innovative book, Respect and Loathing in American Democracy, Jeff Spinner-Halev and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse argue that the nation's politics suffers from a lack of respect among political opponents. In making their argument, they build a lot of bridges: between the normative and empirical sides of Political Science, between qualitative and quantitative research, and between contemporary scholarship and many of the seminal works from an earlier era. To address the respect deficit, they call for greater attention to civic education and—perhaps counterintuitively—less attention to politics.

Chalcedonian Bishops in the ‘Pagan Affair’ of 580

Abstract This paper offers an analysis of the dynamics at play in an under-studied episode of religious violence in Late Antiquity, the so-called ‘pagan affair’ which took place in 580 during the reign of Tiberios. It provides a novel explanation for why the Chalcedonian patriarchs Gregory of Antioch and Eutychios of Constantinople were targeted as pagans or sympathisers of pagans during the riots which erupted after the discovery of pagan circles among the Roman elite. The position of both of them was challenged: Eutychios held controversial theological views; moreover, he had previously been deposed and replaced by John Scholastikos, and many clerics considered his return to the episcopal throne uncanonical. Gregory was confronted with a similar difficulty, since his predecessor Anastasios had been sent into exile, but still had many supporters. In addition, both patriarchs were persecutors of the anti-Chalcedonians, who were therefore interested in slandering their persecutors in order to avenge themselves. The paper argues that charges in the form of anti-pagan polemic, such as those brought forth against the two patriarchs, were a useful weapon to deploy against political or religious opponents. It also sets the pagan affair in the context of Tiberios’ religious policy and analyses the strategies the emperor used to end the riots. Finally, it establishes a connection between the affair and an instance of pagan persecution which was triggered some years later, at the beginning of the reign of Maurice, by the successor of Eutychios, patriarch John the Faster.

Political Communication Strategy of Indonesian Republic President Joko Widodo Through Political Diction and Strategic Grammar

This study aims to explore Joko Widodo’s political communication strategy through political diction and strategic grammar. At this point, language is a tool that is full of political interests to gain and maintain power. With a critical paradigm in a qualitative approach, the data are the text of President Joko Widodo’s state speeches in the 2019-2023 period. Data analysis was performed using Fowler’s version of CDA (critical discourse analysis). In the end, the results show that the hidden meanings of using political diction in President Joko Widodo’s speech include embracing political opponents, gathering support, responding to demands, boosting image, growing optimism, and issuing warnings. Apart from that, Joko Widodo in his State of the Union speech also makes use of grammar strategically to highlight positive things or successes by packing them into active sentences and disguising (covering) negative things or failures by packing them into passive sentences. Keywords: political diction, strategic grammar, hidden meaning, political communication strategy

Polarization versus professionalism: military and civilian views on the domestic use of the military

Abstract Scholars and policymakers warn that with rising affective polarization, politicians will find support from the public and permission from military professionals to use military force to selectively crack down on political opponents. We test these claims by conducting parallel survey experiments among the US public and mid-career military officers. We ask about two hypothetical scenarios of domestic partisan unrest, randomly assigning the partisan identity of protesters. Surprisingly, we find widespread public support for deploying the military and no significant partisanship effects. Meanwhile, military officers were very resistant to deploying the military, with nearly 75 percent opposed in any scenario. In short, there is little evidence that public polarization threatens to escalate domestic disputes, and strong evidence for military opposition.

Quantifying the uniqueness and divisiveness of presidential discourse

Abstract Do American presidents speak discernibly different from each other? If so, in what ways? And are these differences confined to any single medium of communication? To investigate these questions, this paper introduces a novel metric of uniqueness based on large language models, develops a new lexicon for divisive speech, and presents a framework for assessing the distinctive ways in which presidents speak about their political opponents. Applying these tools to a variety of corpora of presidential speeches, we find considerable evidence that Donald Trump’s speech patterns diverge from those of all major party nominees for the presidency in recent history. Trump is significantly more distinctive than his fellow Republicans, whose uniqueness values appear closer to those of the Democrats. Contributing to these differences is Trump’s employment of divisive and antagonistic language, particularly when targeting his political opponents. These differences hold across a variety of measurement strategies, arise on both the campaign trail and in official presidential addresses, and do not appear to be an artifact of secular changes in presidential communications.

Testing the social pressure hypothesis: Does in-party social pressure reduce out-party empathy?

Empathy is considered one of the most critical components for bridging political divides and reducing animosity between political groups. Yet, empathy between political opponents is rare. There is a growing concern that partisans do not empathize with out-partisans because they feel social pressure from fellow in-partisans not to do so. This article examines this social pressure hypothesis and draws two conclusions. First, on the surface, the hypothesis seems plausible: citizens perceive fellow in-partisans as comparatively disapproving of and reluctant to engage in out-party empathy, and naïve cross-sectional analyses suggest that this perception translates into lower empathy towards out-partisans. Second, however, experimental data suggest that this relationship is not causal. Expecting disapproval from fellow in-party members for empathizing with out-partisans does not lead to a significant reduction in intentions to empathize with out-partisans. Rather, exploratory analyses suggest that social pressure by the in-party increases empathy toward out-partisans and triggers disappointment toward in-partisans. This implies that partisans can resist social pressure from the in-party and might even compensate for in-partisans' lack of out-party empathy. The results are supported by original cross-sectional and experimental survey data ( ) collected in the United States, an arguably most likely case for in-party social pressure to shape partisans' intentions. The results have important implications for understanding the causes of and viable strategies for building empathy across political divides.

The Long Decline of South Africa's ANC

ABSTRACT: Three decades after the African National Congress (ANC) won 62.7 percent of the vote that propelled Nelson Mandela into the presidency in 1994, the ANC's vote share plummeted to 40.2 percent of the national vote in South Africa's 2024 general election (down from 57.5 percent five years previously,= and well below the 50 percent predicted by preelection polls). Against thirty years of pessimistic academic literature predicting the opposite, the ANC accepted electoral defeat. But this left the ANC in a strategic quandary. Had it reached the upper 40 percent range, easy coalitions with small parties would have passed the 50 percent threshold. But with only 40 percent, the party reached back into the early years of democracy and formed a government of national unity—a multiparty coalition that left the ANC's most significant political opponents out in the cold. ANC (and national) president Cyril Ramaphosa has sidelined Africanist parties and created a coalition with decidedly centrist parties. The "broad church" which has bedeviled the ANC is at an end. Multiparty coalition government has arrived in South Africa, but questions remain: Can ANC electoral decline be arrested by this sharp move towards the center? And what, if any, substantive role is there for the ANC in the future if not?

«Архитектура» репрезентации «чужого» в политическом дискурсе Терезы Мэй

The aim of the investigation is to find out the ways of representing the notion “they” in the political discourse of Theresa May. The article presents the language architecture of the notion “they” by way of example of the discourse of a political leader of Great Britain. Three structural components of the notion “they” represented in Theresa May’s political speeches have been discovered as a result of the investigation. They are: 1) “they” as enemies; 2) “they” as political opponents; 3) “they” as fellow party members who have manifested alienation in a definite political situation. The scientific novelty of the investigation lies in the fact that the gradation of the notion “they” in its political representation rendered by language means has been found out and described. It has been determined as a result of the investigation that the notion “they” represented in Theresa May’s political speeches is expressed by explicit and implicit language units. The notion of “they” as enemies is represented by means of explicitly expressed language units. The notion of “they” as political opponents is represented mainly by means of implicitly expressed language units. The notion of “they” as fellow party members who have manifested alienation in a definite political situation employs a higher degree of implicitness in its realization.

Death Penalty in the Lithuanian SSR in 1950–1990: Legal Grounds and Periods

The article reviews execution of death row inmates from the Lithuanian SSR between 1950 and 1990. It describes the procedure, the extension of the legal framework governing the enforcement of the death penalty, and the underlying trends. Four periods in the enforcement of the death penalty are discussed: 1) 1950–1952, when the majority of the death row inmates were shot down at the MGB internal prison in Vilnius; 2) 1952–1956, when the death row inmates were transported for execution to Butyrka prison in Moscow; 3) 1956–1969, when executions were carried out in Vilnius (criminals were shot dead in Lukiškių prison and political prisoners were shot dead in the KGB interrogation cell); 4) 1969–1990, when the death row inmates from the Lithuanian SSR profile were executed in the interrogation cell in Minsk (Byelorussian SSR). Between 1950 and 1990, 590 people in one or other way related to the Lithuanian SSR were shot or hanged; this figure includes 116 death row inmates shot in Moscow in 1952–1956, 87 death row inmates shot in Minsk in 1967–1990, 29 death row inmates convicted by Kaliningrad and Kirov courts and executed in Vilnius, and 8 Soviet Army officers sentenced to death and shot in Vilnius. The analysis of the personal stories of inmates and the dynamics of executions show that there was an essential breakthrough about 1956 when the number of political prisoners dropped considerably while the number of criminals started increasing rapidly. This trend allows us to explain a new role of the death penalty in the overall punishment system after 1956, specifically that it predominantly became a tool for combating crime, rather than for annihilating political opponents.

Deepfake Cases in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election: Impact and Implications for Democracy

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India have been significantly impacted by the pervasive use of deepfake technology, raising critical concerns about its implications for democracy. This article delves into specific instances of deepfake utilization during the election, exploring their effects on voter behavior and broader democratic processes. It highlights how deepfakes have been employed to spread misinformation, manipulate voter perceptions, and discredit political opponents, thereby undermining trust in the electoral system. The response from regulatory bodies, including the Election Commission of India and the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Center, is examined, showcasing efforts to mitigate these threats. Furthermore, the article discusses the urgent need for enhanced regulatory measures and public awareness to combat the growing menace of AI-driven misinformation. The findings underscore the profound challenges that deepfake technology poses to the integrity of democratic elections, emphasizing the necessity for collaborative strategies to protect democratic values in the digital age.

Christian nationalism and support for leaders violating democratic norms during national emergencies

Abstract During national emergencies, democratically elected leaders have sought to expand executive power in ways that violate democratic norms, ostensibly to guide their nation through crisis. Drawing from research on democratic backsliding, we anticipate support for such executive privileges may stem from different ideological and contextual factors, but primarily from inclinations toward ethno-nationalistic and authoritarian populism. We propose American Christian nationalism represent such inclinations. Analyses of nationally representative data reveal Christian nationalism is the strongest predictor Americans believe unspecified “national emergencies” might require leaders to suspend elections, suppress political opponents, and disregard checks and balances. However, political disinterest, stronger Democratic partisanship, and being Black (vs. White) are also positively associated with support for violating democratic norms, and these associations are amplified by Christian nationalism. Ancillary analyses suggest the interactions with race and party may be contextual, due to a Democratic President in office at the time of the survey. Findings suggest populist impulses characteristic of Christian nationalism may combine with political disinterest (perhaps reflecting disillusionment) and threats to in-group power to increase support for leaders suspending democratic norms during national crises.

Government officials first, then opposition: The spreaders of political and religious conspiracy theories during Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia

Conspiracy theories during Covid-19 pandemic spread worldwide, including in Indonesia. What political and religious factors explain their spread in Indonesia with particular reference to the DKI Jakarta province, its surrounding municipalities, and West Sumatera province? This study aimed to answer the questions. It employed a qualitative approach with multi-data collection methods, including those from media, documents, and interviews. The spread of Conspiracy theories benefited from the democratic system that promotes the freedom of information in using social media. First, the government officials initially spread conspiracy theories to satisfy people’s anxiety about the obscured Pandemic. However, they resulted in the government’s ambiguous, controversial, and reckless policies leading to people’s distrust of the government. Jokowi-Makruf Amien, political opponents capitalized on the government’s poor policies to spread conspiracy theories which partly discredited the Jokowi-Amien administration. Both government officials and the opposition capitalized on politics and religious teaching or supra-natural pretexts to posit their conspiracy theories.

Not our kind of crowd! How partisan bias distorts perceptions of political bots on Twitter (now X).

Social bots, employed to manipulate public opinion, pose a novel threat to digital societies. Existing bot research has emphasized technological aspects while neglecting psychological factors shaping human-bot interactions. This research addresses this gap within the context of the US-American electorate. Two datasets provide evidence that partisanship distorts (a) online users' representation of bots, (b) their ability to identify them, and (c) their intentions to interact with them. Study 1 explores global bot perceptions on through survey data from N = 452 Twitter (now X) users. Results suggest that users tend to attribute bot-related dangers to political adversaries, rather than recognizing bots as a shared threat to political discourse. Study 2 (N = 619) evaluates the consequences of such misrepresentations for the quality of online interactions. In an online experiment, participants were asked to differentiate between human and bot profiles. Results indicate that partisan leanings explained systematic judgement errors. The same data suggest that participants aim to avoid interacting with bots. However, biased judgements may undermine this motivation in praxis. In sum, the presented findings underscore the importance of interdisciplinary strategies that consider technological and human factors to address the threats posed by bots in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.

What are the predictors of political incivility perceptions?

Incivility in public discourse has become a central concern. This research develops an approach based on citizens’ perceptions of incivility to assess predictors of such perceptions. Starting from a definition of the concept in a multidimensional sense, we identified different types of incivility that can be easily translated into operational terms (using vulgar/insulting language, referring to another politician with racist/sexist/religious epithets, lying/inventing facts to attack political opponents, and resorting to violence against political opponents). Through a survey of a representative sample of the Italian population, we found that citizens’ perception of incivility is not uniform but varies depending on the context and individual characteristics (socio-demographic variables, news consumption and relationship with politics). Overall, the importance of disentangling the concept into different types has emerged, because continuing to speak of ‘incivility’ in a broad sense does not help to clarify the phenomenon nor to identify the consequences for citizens’ relationship with politics.

Encounters convening publics: opposing politics and confronting trouble-making

ABSTRACT In this article, we examine the outbursts of a white passenger on a London tram, antagonizing others through swearing, nationalist, racist and anti-immigrant talk and the responses of carriage members to her confrontational talk. Our analysis uses a video recording of the event made by a passenger that circulated widely on social and news media. We document multiple forms of response, including the video-witnessing itself. We describe how the trouble-making passenger antagonizes other passengers in order to produce opponents. In addition, we track how members of the carriage, in responding, show their right to respond, seek to avoid the terms of the confrontation and, once constituted as political opponents, their opposition to the politics being expressed. In examining the responses to the trouble-making and the politics being contested between the persons involved and, in tracking how public transport is attempted to be transformed into an ad hoc agora, we contribute to Barnett’s work on convening public space, ordinary action, and politics in human geography.

Moral panic and (in)security

Abstract This study examines Trump’s depiction of Hispanic and Latinx immigrants, highlighting his use of moral panic to activate fear and thereby deepen societal divisions within a broader right-wing populist agenda. Analyzing nearly half a million words from Trump’s tweets using corpus-assisted critical discourse analysis, the research reveals that he portrays Hispanic and Latinx immigrants as the ‘object of offence,’ amplifying their perceived threat while ‘scapegoating’ political adversaries and other nations. As a ‘moral entrepreneur,’ he and his allies position themselves as protectors against this perceived danger, warning of severe ‘consequences’ for national security and the economy if left unaddressed. Their ‘corrective action’ involves implementing strict immigration policies, with the ‘desired outcome’ being enhanced security and economic prosperity. The study demonstrates how the deployment of moral panic generates public fear and insecurity, legitimizing anti-immigrant sentiments and justifying stringent measures. This, in turn, reinforces right-wing populism narratives with significant societal implications.