This paper develops analytically a statistical model for predicting the material removal in mechanical polishing of material surfaces (MS). The model was based on the statistical theory and the abrasive–MS contact mechanisms. The pad-MS and pad-abrasive-MS interactions in polishing were characterised by contact mechanics. Two types of active abrasive particles in the polishing system were considered, i.e., Type I – the particles that can slide and rotate between the pad and MS, and Type II – those embedded in the pad without a rigid body motion. Accordingly, the material removal is considered to be the sum of the contributions from the two types of abrasive interactions. It was found that the mechanical properties and microstructure of the polishing pad and polishing conditions have a significant effect on the material removal rate, such as the porosity and elastic modulus of the pad, polishing pressure, volume concentration of abrasives, particle size, pad asperity radius and pad roughness. It was also found that different types of active particles contribute quite differently to the material removal. When the mean particle radius is small, the material removal is mainly due to the Type II particles, but when the mean particle radius becomes large, the Type I particles remove more materials. The model predictions are well aligned with experimental results available in the literature and can be used for the material removal prediction in chemo-mechanical polishing if a proper treatment of the chemical effect is introduced.