Polish Zloty Research Articles

New Continuum of High Volatile Currency Spillover During EU-BREXIT

In this study, the researchers observed the impact of Brexit on the Pound and its spillover to other European countries, likely to be affected during that period. The intraday high-frequency hourly return data of chief monies as Great Britain Pound (GBP), Euro (EUR), Danish Krone (DDK), Hungarian Forint (HUF), Turkish Lira (TRY), Swiss Franc (CHF), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Polish Zloty (PLN), for two months and one day, was utilized. The Intraday volatility spillover index approach and a further rolling window technique applied. The analysis of high-frequency data revealed that four currency pairs as TRY/USD, DKK/USD, PLN/USD, and HUF/USD, are highly volatile currencies. However, three pair currencies as GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and SEK/USD, are comparatively lesser volatile. The results and managerial implications reflect preparedness dynamics and proactiveness for a new continuum project that regional transmission effects of volatility spread from one currency to other currencies in the EU during Brexit.

Cost-effectiveness of telerehabilitation in patients with heart failure in Poland: an analysis based on the results of Telerehabilitation in the Heart Failure Patients (TELEREH-HF) randomized clinical trial.

Telerehabilitation in the Heart Failure Patients (TELEREH-HF) study showed a statistically significant improvement in the tertiary outcomes i.e. the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class after a 9-week follow-up, consistent with telerehabilitation-related benefits to quality of life (QoL) measured with the 36-item Short Form questionnaire (SF-36). The study analyzed the cost-effectiveness of hybrid telerehabilitation compared to standard care in heart failure patients in the Polish setting using findings from the TELEREH-HF trial. Cost-utility analysis was conducted from the perspective of a public payer (the Polish National Health Fund). The quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) measure was based on QoL, as survival benefit was not confirmed in the TELEREH-HF. Utility values were estimated based on NYHA improvement and a systematic review of NYHA-specific utility values. Alternatively, SF-36 results were translated into utility values. Telerehabilitation costs covered 8 weeks, 5 days/week, at a daily cost of 74 Polish zloty (PLN). Standard care costs resulted from extra in-patient and out-patient rehabilitation costs incurred for selected patients. A lifetime horizon was adopted, with an estimated average survival time of 3.9 years based on 2 years TELEREH-HF follow-up and subsequent literature-derived prognosis. Base case analysis yielded a 0.044 and 0.027 gain in QALY for the NYHA and SF-36-based approaches, corresponding to a cost per QALY of 58.7 and 96 thousand PLN, respectively. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that the cost per QALY value was likely below the official cost-effectiveness threshold in Poland. The use of telerehabilitation was found cost-effective in Poland, i.e., the clinical benefits justify the additional costs.

Economic integration and exchange rate arrangements in the post-soviet period : The Baltic states in comparative perspective

Which have been the consequences of the euro for integration and economic performance in the Baltic Sea region? After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the three Baltic states and Poland have been rapidly catching-up with Western Europe. The Great Recession becamea great setback for the former, while less so for Poland. A difference is the monetary policy: the Polish zloty depreciated in the critical moment of the crisis, while currency boards with the aim of joining the euro bestowed appreciation for the Baltics and Finland. Contrary to the purpose, monetary integration has not fostered integration in trade, and the share of the Eurozone in Baltic trade has stagnated. A comparison with other countries in the Baltic Sea region suggests that the euro provides “the golden fetters” of our time. Emigration, also a kind of integration, has become a safety valve with severe social and economic consequences for the Baltic states.

Forecasting exchange rates for Central and Eastern European currencies using country‐specific factors

AbstractThis study builds on two strands of the literature regarding exchange rates—developing methods to forecast them and attempting to find a link between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals (i.e., addressing so called “exchange rate disconnect puzzle”). We propose looking separately at its global component (common for all the currencies) and the local component (country‐specific one) instead of modeling and forecasting the exchange rate directly. We demonstrate that in the last few years, local factors have been gaining importance in shaping the exchange rate returns for the Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint, Czech Koruna, and Romanian Leu. We further show that the main drivers of the local component of exchange rate returns are the future values of the gross domestic product growth rate and consumer price index inflation. Using principal component analysis combined with linear regression, we exploit this tendency for forecasting purposes. Our novel approach yields superior results compared to the random walk in out‐of‐sample forecasting exercise at horizons of 1 month to over a year in the case of Central and Eastern European currencies. The results withstand the sensitivity and robustness analysis.

Equity Portfolio Optimization With Gold

Design/methodology/approach: The investment portfolio optimization procedure in the Markovitz environment is made. The study is devoted to investments made by Polish investors, that is stocks are reflected by the WIG index from the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The analysis is conducted in different periods of time in 2006–2019 covering bull and bear markets of gold. Findings: It is shown that gold can be used as a hedge asset; however, exact conclusions depend on the market situation. Including gold in the stock portfolio increases the portfolio rate of return and at the same time decreases risk measured with variance, however only during the bull market of gold. During the bear market, gold helps minimize risk but at the same time it lowers the portfolio rate of return compared to stocks-only portfolio. Besides, it turns out that during the bull market of gold, both skewness and kurtosis of the portfolio are more advantageous for an optimal portfolio covering both stocks and gold than for the stock one. Research limitations/implications: An important assumption of the study is in what way investments in gold are made. Here, they are made by the use of spot gold prices and they are recalculated into Polish zlotys in order to check the Polish investor perspective. In reality, it is not easy to invest directly in big amounts of gold, although in the literature spot gold prices are used for such research. Originality/value: The research contributes to the existing international literature on using gold in stock portfolio management by analyzing the problem from the point of view of a Polish investor.

THE RISK PREMIUM IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET. THE APPLICATION OF ARCH-IN-MEAN MODEL

Forward premium anomaly is one of the most popular puzzles in the theory of international finance. The phenomenon is explained by, among others, the existence of non-zero risk premium in the foreign exchange market. The paper applies ARCH-in-mean models to assess whether there exists a time-varying risk premium in the USD/PLN and AUD/JPY foreign exchange markets. The results indicate the existence of a non-zero risk premium in the analyzed markets. As far as the USD/PLN is concerned, the risk premium takes negative values when the risk measured by conditional variance rises. The results suggest that when there is a surge in risk, the US dollar’s appreciation and Polish zloty depreciation increases. The results confirm the US dollar as a safe-haven currency that tends to appreciate during high-volatility and crisis periods. Moreover, the study shows that the risk premium in the AUD/JPY market takes positive values when the risk measured by conditional variance rises. It implies that when there is a mount in risk, the appreciation of Japanese yen increases. Furthermore, research results reveal the positive and significant relationship between stock market uncertainty and exchange rates conditional volatility.

Bitcoin as a New Currency

Abstract Research background: Bitcoin is the most popular financial instrument within the new cryptocurrencies class, which emerged in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/2008. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of Bitcoin from the perspective of the Polish market investor. More specifically, the aim of the empirical research presented in this study has been twofold: (1) comparison of Bitcoin with other currencies using returns and risk captured by the standard deviation of returns and (2) assessment of the sensitivity of the BTC/PLN exchange rate to the NBP’s monetary policy announcements. Results: Bitcoin appears to be weakly related to other currency exchange rates against the Polish zloty and the monetary policy announcements of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) have, effectively, no influence on the determination of the BTC/PLN exchange rate. Novelty: We discuss extensively the Bitcoin as a new asset on the financial market and we present the investigation of the BTC/PLN reactions to the monetary policy announcements in Poland, which is a novel analysis for this instrument using the Polish market data.

MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE VISEGRAD GROUP EXCHANGE RATES

The paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic development on exchange rates and aims to point out indicators with a significant impact on the Visegrad Group's domestic currencies. Steep changes causing the Visegrad Group’s currencies to either appreciate or depreciate against the US dollar may result in higher risks for investors and even deteriorate the competitiveness of the particular country. The paper presents several macroeconomic indicators and their influence on four currencies, namely the Czech crown, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty and the Euro. As the Slovak Republic introduced the Euro as its official currency, the paper also analyzes it's impact on the common currency of the Eurozone. To emphasize international competitiveness, the research apart from traditional economic indicators, serving as a focal point in theories for exchange rate determination, incorporated economic complexity and corruption score as well. The findings indicate that during the period between 2000 to 2017, the two common indicators i.e. total reserves and corruption played the key role in determining the year-end spot exchange rates of the Czech crown, Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty. Besides corruption score, economic complexity serves as another significant indicator merely influencing the direction of the Euro's and the Zloty’s Dollar exchange rate movement. The last section compares the results of the OLS analyses for each country and verifies their accuracy through robust regressions. Overall, the model for the Czech crown represents the highest accuracy, regarding its predictive ability.

Economic Policy Response to the COVID-19 Crisis: The case of Poland

The aim of this paper is to examine the economic policy response to the COVID-19 crisis in Poland. The paper investigates the rationale for the economic policy tools implemented, their costs, and potential consequences for the Polish economy. The analysis concentrates on the initial phase of the crisis (March-April 2020). The empirical part of the paper uses data from the National Bank of Poland, Polish government, International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook), CEIC (ISI Emerging Markets), CEIDG (Central Registration and Information on Business), and Fitch Ratings. The study proves that the scope of economic policy adjustments in Poland might be viewed as relatively wide. Monetary policy tools and fiscal packages implemented induce profound consequences for the Polish economy. The total new financing needed by the government for anti-crisis measures results in a significant increase in the public debt ratio, from 44% in 2019 to 51.5% in 2020, and a state budget deficit of 7.6% of GDP in 2020. Although the projected debt ratio is still below the 55% alert threshold prescribed by Polish law, policymakers should consider risk factors. First, under an extended lockdown scenario financing needs might be larger than initially estimated. Second, if the polish currency depreciates due to external pressures, the debt ratio increases even more as 30% of the Polish public debt is denominated in foreign currencies. Financing the fiscal packages is not possible without the support of the NBP. The scope of the quantitative easing policy required is relatively similar to programmes implemented in the United States after 2009. Therefore, economic agents should expect an unprecedented increase in the NBP balance sheet. Money in circulation is expected to rise by 70%. This should have an impact on price levels in Poland, at least in the long term. The worst-case scenario is stagflation, characterised by sluggish economic growth and rising inflation.

Banknote Counterfeiting Phenomenon in Poland

Abstract The paper presents the phenomenon of banknote counterfeiting in Poland and a selection of methods used against this type of crime. It shows that the number of counterfeit banknotes in Poland is much lower than in the eurozone countries. Moreover, a share of counterfeit Polish zloty banknotes significantly dropped in 2011 to the level of 7.6 ppm and between 2015–2018 to the level of 2.6–2.7 ppm. This decline can be associated with increased law enforcement (elimination of a large criminal group of counterfeiters in 2001) and the Polish zloty banknotes upgrade in 2014 and 2016, which introduced a set of new security features further discussed in this paper. This leads to the conclusion that regular currency modernization, introducing new security features as well as law enforcement activities are an effective anti-counterfeit method.

Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets

The recent outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has made a significant impact on the global financial markets. The aim of this paper is to assess the short-term reaction of the Visegrad countries’ financial markets to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Visegrad Group is a political alliance of four Central European countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The financial assessment is based on the EUR/CZK, EUR/HUF, and EUR/PLN exchange rates and the major blue-chip stock market indices, that is Prague PX, Budapest BUX, Warsaw WIG20, and Bratislava SAX. It is evident that the ongoing pandemic has changed the expectations of the financial market participants about the future value of exchange rates in the Visegrad countries. This study indicates that, as a consequence of COVID-19, higher probability has been attached to the large depreciation of the Czech koruna (CZK), the Hungarian forint (HUF), and the Polish zloty (PLN) than to their large appreciation. Moreover, based on the TGARCH model, the positive and significant correlation between the number of reported COVID-19 cases and the exchange rates has been confirmed, implying that the ongoing pandemic has resulted in the depreciation of the Visegrad currencies. Additionally, the result of the TGARCH model reveals that there is a significant and negative link between the Visegrad stock market indices and the COVID-19 spread.

Dynamic interactions between Central European currencies and the euro

We argue that the non-euro EU currencies of Central European countries have moved increasingly together with the euro in foreign exchange markets. To prove this point, we examine the dynamics of cross-elasticity between selected Central European currencies (the Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and Hungarian forint) and the euro exchange rates in U.S. dollar terms using daily data for the January 4, 2000 to April 5, 2019 sample period. We adopt the cross-elasticity model originally proposed and tested for the EU currencies by Orlowski (2016). To test the currency co-movements over time, we employ the Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regression and two-state Markov switching tests. We find evidence of increasing co-movements between the Central European currencies and the euro that become particularly pronounced in times of financial distress. Co-movements of local exchange rates with the euro are also more pronounced during the euro-periphery sovereign debt crisis.

Characterization of the elemental composition of Polish banknotes by X-ray fluorescence and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

In this study, two very promising techniques, micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) were applied to the examination of Polish banknotes – Polish zloty (zl).Several areas on each banknote were selected and analysed. Different elemental compositions were identified after comparing the spectra recorded from various measurement locations. It was possible to identify characteristic atomic emissions from one or several elements such as Ca, Ti, Fe, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Mg, Mn, Ni, V, and Zr, depending on the banknote denomination, issue date, and evaluated spot. Potentially good discriminators with unique elemental composition were identified: black serial number (C) and microlettering (A). A comparison of brand-new banknotes with used banknotes (which have been in circulation) was also performed. The middle horizontal section of the banknotes shows higher exposure to contamination and consequently constitutes the most difficult part to analyse. Counterfeit banknotes were also analysed and were clearly distinguished from authentic notes in all cases. It was demonstrated that a comparison of the elemental composition is a useful way to detect counterfeit banknotes (10, 20, 50 and 100 zl) in ‘real-world’ cases.This study shows the potential of LIBS and μXRF as effective and practical techniques to analyse Polish banknotes. Their many advantages provide a good alternative to the analytical methods routinely used for the examination of these objects.

Polish zloty as an instrument to support the economy in the era of coronavirus

The article presents arguments in favour of maintaining monetary sovereignty by Poland. The author expresses the view that having Poland's own currency and its own national monetary policy helps to alleviate crisis phenomena in the economy. The article shows the positive role of the NBP in counteracting the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic. The NBP lowered interest rates to the lowest level in history and purchased debt securities. The Polish monetary and budgetary authorities managed to stop the decline in GDP and the rise in the unemployment rate. Moreover, the easing monetary policy of the NBP prevented excessive strengthening of the domestic currency against foreign currencies. As a result, the exchange rate was favourable for domestic exports.

Volatility of the Polish zloty against major international currencies compared to other Central and Eastern European currencies in 2004-2010 and 2011-2019

Volatility of the Polish zloty against major international currencies compared to other Central and Eastern European currencies in 2004-2010 and 2011-2019

Infliximab, adalimumab, golimumab, vedolizumab and tofacitinib in moderate to severe ulcerative colitis: comparative cost-effectiveness study in Poland.

Background:Current management of ulcerative colitis (UC) is aimed to treat active disease and to maintain remission. For patients in whom conventional treatment is no longer effective, biological or small molecule therapy may be an option. The aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of induction and maintenance treatment up to 1 year of UC with infliximab (IFX), adalimumab (ADA), golimumab, vedolizumab (VDZ) and tofacitinib (TFB) compared with standard of care (SoC) in Poland.Methods:A hybrid decision tree/Markov model was used to estimate the expected costs and effects of four biologics, TFB and placebo in patients with the diagnosis of moderate to severe UC who had an inadequate response, lost response, or were intolerant to a conventional therapy. Prior exposure to anti-TNF was considered. At the beginning of the maintenance phase, the decision to continue biological therapy was determined by the achievement of response at the end of induction. Efficacy data were obtained from a network meta-analysis using placebo as the common comparator. Costs were presented in 2018 Polish zloty (PLN) and outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The analysis was performed from the Polish public payer’s perspective and lifetime horizon was set.Results:In anti-TNF naïve, IFX and VDZ were characterized by the most favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICURs) compared with SoC, PLN211,250.78 and PLN361,694.61/QALY (€49,589.38 and €84,904.84/QALY), respectively. In anti-TNF-exposed population the most effective treatment was TFB. Both ADA and VDZ were more effective than SoC; however, ICUR values were much above the cost-effectiveness threshold. The incorporation of biosimilars reversed the ranking of treatments in relation to the growing ICUR.Conclusion:Although ICUR values for all biological therapies exceeded the acceptability threshold in Poland, for anti-TNF-naïve UC patients IFX and for anti-TNF-exposed UC patients VDZ are currently the most cost-effective alternatives.

Liquidity of bitcoin – insights from Polish and global markets

Bitcoin can be exchanged for other cryptocurrencies as well as for fiat currencies on many different platforms. Nevertheless, its real convertibility may be limited by market liquidity. The main aim of this article is to characterize and compare big and small bitcoin markets in terms of liquidity. I examine four platforms with high trade volume: Kraken, Bitstamp, BitFlyer and BTCBOX, as well as small entities which enable bitcoin to be traded in Polish zloty: BitBay and BitMarket. I compare the number of trades and the time between trades on selected bitcoin markets, determine the volume distribution throughout the day and analyse the dynamics of Amihud’s illiquidity measure – ILLIQ. I find that an exchange which is among the global leaders in terms of trading bitcoin in a particular traditional currency can be considered a smaller market in terms of trade volume in another traditional currency. Moreover, the results imply that BitBay and BitMarket can be perceived as local markets. They are mainly used for trading in Polish zloty, and are illiquid in terms of trading in the remaining traditional currencies. Home bias, the fact that they offer a possibility of trading in a less popular currency (in comparison to the world reserve currencies), and that have their interface in Polish, may give these platforms a competitive advantage.

ІСТОРИЧНІ, ОРГАНІЗАЦІЙНІ ТА ПРАВОВІ АСПЕКТИ СТАНОВЛЕННЯ ФІНАНСОВО-КРЕДИТНОЇ СИСТЕМИ ДРУГОЇ РЕЧІ ПОСПОЛИТОЇ

У статті розкрито історичні, організаційні та правові аспекти становлення фінансово-кредитної системи Другої Речі Посполитої. Висвітлено умови, в яких відбувалося становлення кредитної системи, проаналізовано її правові та організаційні аспекти. Показано кількісну і якісну динаміку розвитку банківських та кредитних установ. Висвітлено процес формування та функціонування фінансово-кредитної системи польської держави в 20—30-х роках XX століття. Встановлено, що його становленню перешкоджали наслідки Першої світової війни: зруйнована економіка, девальвація валюти тощо. Головною проблемою влади була гіперінфляція. На початку 1920-х років були прийняті закони про проведення фінансової реформи. Були створені акціонерний банк Польщі, банк національного господарства та сільськогосподарський банк. Введено польські злоти. Визначено суб’єкти та умови банківської діяльності. Сформовано регульований ринок грошей, який представляли державні, муніципальні та приватні банки. Відбулося інституційно-правове формування кредитної системи. У регіонах почали працювати відділи державних банків, ощадні каси органів місцевого самоврядування, кредитні кооперативи. Уряд фінансував економіку через регулювання грошового ринку. Воно здійснювалося двома способами. Визначено максимальну межу процентної ставки для приватних банків та збережено низьку процентну ставку для польського Національного банку, державних і муніципальних банків. Створений банківський сектор забезпечив сприятливі умови для розвитку ринкової економіки, структурної перебудови промислового та сільськогосподарського виробництва, діяльності органів місцевого самоврядування по всій країні. В сучасних умовах необхідно враховувати історичний досвід функціонування польської фінансово-кредитної системи для підвищення внутрішнього інвестиційного потенціалу України.

Don't Lose Your Head! Program on Prevention and Early Detection of Head and Neck Cancers in Poland in the Years 2017-2019

Amount raised: 1 635 652,11 Polish Zloty (PLN; about 480,000 USD) Background and context: Head and neck cancers (HNCs) (IDC10: C00-C15, C30-C33, C69; C73) are significant clinical and social problem. While the overall number of new cases is stable and almost on the same level (∼6000 new cases each year) increase of HNCs incidence among young adults (<40 y.o.) is observed. This phenomenon is mostly connected with HPV infections, because a great majority of this group has never smoke and never abuse alcohol (smoking and drinking high-percentage alcohol are well-known risk factors for HNCs). Because there is no screening program for HNCs and treatment prognosis for these cancers are unfavorable, preventive actions are basic and most effective tool in decreasing HNCs incidence and mortality. Aim: To implement in 5 Polish voivodeships pilot prophylactic program on early detection on HNCs. Strategy/Tactics: The main objective will be achieved by influencing the 5 basic causal areas of the problem of late HNCs recognition in Poland. These are: 1) awareness about HNCs risk factors in Polish society, 2) competences of medical staff in prophylaxis, health education and diagnostic of HNCs (120 doctors and nurses - especially from primary health care, 100 dentists), 3) access to preventive examinations (800 people from 5 voivodeships), 4) launching mechanisms of HNCs prophylaxis through the involvement of representatives of nongovernmental and local governments organizations who have constant contact with people in HNCs risk groups, 5) increasing the knowledge on the incidence of oncogenic HPV varieties in the oral cavity of healthy people and the frequency of HPV infection in the oral cavity from smoking and drinking alcohol. Apart from the trainings for health professionals, trainings for street workers are also provided in this program. Program process: Maria Sklodowska-Curie Institute - Oncology Center successfully applied for funds for the implementation of the created project. Program is cofinanced by European Union, from European Social Funds within the Operational Program Knowledge Education Development 2014-2020, V. Priority axis: Support for the health area, Measure 5.1: Preventive programs and is free of charge for participants. Nowadays project team conducts procedures aiming among the others recruitment of participants, cooperation with NGOs, creation of agenda of the meetings, preparation of the awareness campaign. Costs and returns: Main obstacles and costs are combined with administrative difficulties and doctor's tight schedule (lack of time for additional activities). The biggest return will be improvement of early HNCs detection and mortality decrease caused by these cancers. What was learned: Preliminary observations show that patients are very interested in participation in HNCs early detection and prevention program. Moreover, in many cases they have never participated in any actions concern HNCs education.

Selected aspects of the independence of the National Bank of Poland in the context of Polish political practice

Niezależność banku centralnego jest pojęciem złożonym i wielostronnym, a jego podstawową przesłanką jest dbałość o wartość współczesnego pieniądza i założenie, że autonomiczny bank jest bardziej odporny na oddziaływanie pozostałych uczestników życia polityczno-gospodarczego. Przyjęte w Polsce rozwiązania ustrój owo-prawne gwarantująNarodowemu Bankowi Polskiemu wysoką pozycję w strukturze organów państwa oraz duży stopnień niezależności w trzech podstawowych aspektach:personalnej, finansowej i funkcjonalnej. Świadczy o tym zarówno sposób powoływania organów banku centralnego i ich kadencyjność, kompetencja wyłącznego prawa do ustalania i realizowania polityki pieniężnej, zakaz bezpośredniego finansowania przez bank centralny deficytu budżetowego oraz w znacznym stopniu ograniczony nadzór Sejmu i rządu nad działalnością NBP. W obliczu prób pozbawienia choćby części autonomii NBP warto podkreślić, że polityka monetarna dla swej skuteczności wymaga realizowania celów długofalowych, co stoi w sprzeczności z krótkoterminową polityką rządu zdeterminowaną programem politycznym i kalendarium wyborów. Potwierdził to wyrok Trybunału Konstytucyjnego w sprawie bankowej komisji śledczej wskazując na niezależność Narodowego Banku Polskiego oraz jego uprawnienie do realizacji autonomicznej polityki pieniężnej wolnej od wpływów politycznych, co stanowi gwarancję wartości polskiego złotego.