Policy Dilemmas Research Articles

The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity

ABSTRACT Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information, technology, and networks. Their properties, opportunities, and constraints are comparable to the qualitative difference between conventional and nuclear weapons. New weapons and their target sets in a new domain raise a series of unresolved policy challenges at the domestic, bilateral, and international levels about deterrence, attribution, and response. They also introduce new risks: uncertainty about unintended consequences, expectations of efficacy, and uncertainty about both the target’s and the international community’s response. Cyber operations offer considerable benefits for states to achieve strategic objectives both covertly and overtly. However, without a strategic framework to contain and possibly deter their use, make state and non-state behavior more predictable in the absence of reciprocal norms, and limit their impact, an environment where states face persistent attacks that nonetheless fall below the threshold of armed conflict presents a policy dilemma that reinforces collective insecurity.

Commercial vs Policy Loans: A Policy Dilemma After Global Financial Crisis

China put forward fundamental reform in the banking sector in the mid-1990s to commercialize the state-owned specialized banks. This reflected the central government’s determination to enhance the efficiency of the state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) by separating commercial lending from policy lending. Though the banking reform in the mid-1990s could not completely change the credit culture and fully commercialize the SOCBs, the operations of SOCBs and their nonstate counterparts have been more responsive to market signals and discipline. Nonetheless, in order to maintain a stable growth after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the central government initiated a 4-trillion yuan stimulus package which fostered the proliferation of local government financial platforms (LGFPs) and rapid credit expansion through shadow banking. Substantial amount of credits were channeled to projects of low returns and even created sizable excess capacity. Deteriorating credit quality heightens the risks in China’s banking sector. Though central leaders are certainly aware of the risks embedded in the banking sector, the GFC in 2008 and the trade war in 2018 prompted the Chinese government to focus more on macroeconomic stability and thus policy loans at both central and local levels will remain as important levers to stabilize the economy.

의료규제 정책의 딜레마에 관한 연구: 신약 및 신의료기기 분야의 전문가 조사를 중심으로

의료규제 정책의 딜레마에 관한 연구: 신약 및 신의료기기 분야의 전문가 조사를 중심으로

Energy communities in the transition to a low-carbon future: A taxonomical approach and some policy dilemmas

In calls for transition to a society in which energy production is based on renewable sources, a fundamental role is increasingly assigned to so-called 'energy communities'. The term 'energy communities' is, however, used to denote a range of different circumstances thus risking overly simplifying the phenomenon. The intention of this article is to discuss what these communities really are or could be. The article is structured into five sections. The first section introduces the main topic. The second section clarifies the use of the term community, and propose an energy community taxonomy (we consider two pairs of options which generate a four-cell matrix: a first distinction can be made between “place-based” and “non-place-based” communities on the basis of a potential correspondence between the community and a specific area; a further difference is that between communities which take shape solely for energy purposes and those with a range of objectives including goals encompassing shared management of energy systems - in this sense, we can distinguish between “single-purpose” and “multi-purpose” communities). The third section considers certain examples which test and exemplify this taxonomy. The fourth section discusses the most significant features which have emerged and considers the main implications (e.g. policy implications). The fifth section concludes by encouraging further critical debate.

South Korea’s Nuclear Dilemmas

ABSTRACT Since the beginning of 2018, the nuclear dynamics surrounding the Korean Peninsula have started to change rapidly and dramatically. The world is now watching a series of historic negotiations in which the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is to be discussed. Meanwhile, South Korea’s current nuclear policies look paradoxical, mainly in two ways. First, although the Moon Jae-in administration is adhering to its nuclear phaseout policy, the country’s nuclear capacity is likely to grow during his term. Second, South Korea is continuing its research on pyroprocessing – which can be controversial especially from a nonproliferation perspective – for its future spent fuel management while at the same time pursuing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This article describes the country’s current nuclear capacity, reviews the history of spent fuel management in South Korea, discusses differing views of nuclear elites and the Korean public on the nuclear phaseout and back-end fuel cycle policies, and explains how these paradoxes in current nuclear policies have emerged. The article concludes that South Korea faces nuclear policy dilemmas and that the current policy incoherence could worsen in the future because of contentious internal dynamics.

British diplomacy of money and trade

Leaving the EU is one of the major political decisions made in the UK over the past half-century. Brexit brought about a virtual political earthquake not only in EU-UK relations but also in terms of UK future place and role on the international scene. Immediately after the decision of UK citizens to leave the EU at a referendum held on 23 June 2016, the question arose as to whether the UK will lose some of its international influence, whether Scotland will remain part of the Union, whether the UK will retain its privileged relations and special status with the USA, and what its future relations with the EU will be. The purpose of this article is to point to the basic priorities of the contemporary British foreign policy as well as to place and role of the UK on the contemporary international scene particularly in view of its decision to leave the EU. We shall first try to define the status of present-day Britain in international relations. Second, we shall address the traditional dilemma of the UK foreign policy - what should be given priority - relations with the USA, Europe or the Commonwealth? After that, we shall discuss in more detail the phases the UK foreign policy went through following the end of the cold war. In the third phase, we shall analyze the British contemporary foreign and economic policy towards Gulf countries and China. In the fourth part of the article, we shall discuss relations with the USA. It should be pointed out that the article does not seek to analyze all aspects of British foreign policy, even if we wanted to, due to a shortage of time. Of course, the topic of Brexit will be present in all chapters and especially in the last one and conclusion remarks. By its decision to leave the EU, the UK appears to have given priority to its relations with the USA, China, Gulf countries as well as Commonwealth countries instead of the EU which has been economically and politically dominant over the past few decades. This decision taken by UK citizens will no doubt have a great impact not only on their personal lives and standard of living but on the UK role in international relations. Despite its military, political, economic and cultural capacities, it is highly unlikely that the UK will manage to overcome the consequences of an exit from the single market, currently generating 18 trillion dollars on an annual basis as well as the loss of a privileged partner role with the USA within the Union. We are, therefore, more likely to believe that in the foreseeable future, the role of the UK on the international scene will continue to decline and be increasingly focused on its economic and financial interests. Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III 47010: Drustvene transformacije u procesu evropskih integracija - multidisciplinarni pristup]

Addressing Asymmetries in the Eurozone

Asymmetries in the Eurozone are high and the whole undertaking is at the crossroads. On one hand, one of its countries, namely Germany, seems to enjoy current account and budget surpluses, mainly as a result of a strong global demand for high quality German exports, an undervalued single currency, low interest rates, domestic wage restraint and a high domestic saving rate. On the other hand, persistent German surpluses associated with the not-as-good performance of the other economies make it harder for the Eurozone as a whole to recover. The European Union (EU) has tried to create a proper economic and banking union after the crisis. This attempt seems to have not been fully successful for some of the countries. At the same time, the attempts to impose austerity measures caused to a large extent an incremental rise inskepticismin Europe. The purpose of this paper is to record the prevailing asymmetries in the Eurozone, to estimate the priorities and the different maximization functions of the member countries and investigate alternative scenarios that can be followed. It is also to understand and possibly interpret the dilemmas of the German economic policy in depth, as it is the strongest economy in the Eurozone and hence anticipation was created that it would play the role of the steam engine—not necessarily within Europe only. The set of decisions that could have been taken is in the spotlight again especially due to the fear that at least the financial markets—if not the economies as a whole—are entering into a declining pattern again.

The battle of Bruges: Margaret Thatcher, the foreign office and the unravelling of British European policy

ABSTRACTDrawing on newly released archival material, this article reassesses Margaret Thatcher’s 1988 Bruges speech, widely depicted to have instigated Britain's drift towards Brexit. It opens by giving an essential recap of the main contents of the speech. Next, the article explains why and how we use the address as a prism through which to see Thatcher's European policy-making in action. The third section tells how the speech was written to show how intra-government fault lines began to surface in its earliest incarnations. We then process trace to the two main battles publicly rehearsed at Bruges: over the Conservative Party's approach to European integration (fourth section); and, reinforcing this, over the desirability of an Anglo-American reading of British history in which ‘Europe’ occupied a subordinate place (fifth section). Our central claim is that the study of political speeches, including the speechwriting process, can be a compelling addition to our accounts of the ways in which politicians frame policy dilemmas, debate them behind the scenes and manage their political communication to achieved desired policy objectives, in this case opening up Britain's place in ‘Europe’ for domestic discussion. We therefore contribute to three overlapping domains of inquiry: Thatcher's foreign and European policy decision-making; the Conservative Party and European integration leading to Brexit; and finally, speeches as tools for policy-making and agenda setting.

Understanding policy dilemmas around antibiotic use in food animals & offering potential solutions.

The looming concern of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has prompted the government of many countries of the world to act upon and come up with the guidelines, comprehensive recommendations and policies concerning prudent use of antibiotics and containment of AMR. However, such initiatives from countries with high incidence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in food animals are still in infancy. This review highlights the existing global policies on antibiotics use in food animals along with details of the various Indian policies and guidelines. In India, in spite of availability of integrated policies for livestock, poultry and aquaculture sector, uniform regulations with coordinated initiative are needed to formulate strict policies regarding antimicrobial use both in humans and animals. In an attempt to create effective framework to tackle the AMR, the Indian Council of Medical Research initiated a series of dialogues with various stakeholders and suggested various action points for urgent implementation. This review summarizes the recommendations made during the various consultations. The overarching aim of this review is to clearly delineate the action points which need to be carried out urgently to regulate the antibiotic use in animals.

LANGUAGE POLICY DILEMMAS IN MODERN RUSSIA (ON THE BASIS OF THE LINGUISTIC SITUATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN)

Political dilemmas arising in a multi-ethnic state in the priorities of language policy context are always acute political issues. The difficulty of balancing the language policy is at the heart of the conflict of interests of different ethnic groups. Frequently, their interests are directly opposed, and the interests of the elites run counter to the interests of the ethnic groups, which creates a set of intractable dilemmas. The authors believe that we face a set of such dilemmas in modern Russia. Throughout the 20th century, the political leaders and elites of the Russian Empire, the USSR, and then the Russian Federation followed diametrically different approaches to the issue of languages. Recent years have witnessed purposeful activity of the Russian Federal center to develop a certain unified concept of language policy to form a common civil identity. However, the measures taken by the Federal center - in particular, the transition to the optional study of regional languages at school - meet with certain resistance from the regional ethnic and national elites for whom they become matters of principle. Regional elites would resist erosion of regional identities, which occurs also through the mechanisms of language policy. Another factor in this political process is associated with the ratio of ethnic groups with certain interests in different regions of Russia (we can often observe the following situation: ethnic majority and Russian minority). Regardless of the region, the enhanced study of the Russian language for successful completion of the unified state exam and admission to a more prestigious university is a significant factor in favor of strengthening the position of the Russian language in school education. The authors keep to the view that the contradictions between the interests of the Federal center, regional elites and ethnic groups give rise to language policy dilemmas which need a fairly quick and compromise solution on the part of all participants.

The Role of EU Integration in Accelerating Structural Reforms in the Western Balkans: Evidence, Theory and Policy

Integration with the European Union has been an important driver of economic, political and social transformation in the Western Balkans. In recent years, however, the pace of structural reforms in the region has decelerated and the trend of economic catch-up seen in the 2000s has not resumed after the slowdown of the global economic crisis. This has coincided – at least temporally, if not causally – with a ‘temporary freeze’ in the EU’s enlargement towards the region. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to investigate the role of EU conditionality on economic reforms and convergence in the Western Balkans. To do so, it provides original, albeit descriptive, empirical evidence showing a strong link between EU-related structural reforms (towards the Copenhagen Criteria) and economic growth; and subsequently presents an analytical model demonstrating the mechanisms of policy decisions for reforms under EU conditionality. The model assumes away sectoral interests, policy uncertainty and coordination problems, allowing the analysis to focus specifically on the tension between two objectives: the pursuit of EU accession, through the implementation of jointly agreed reforms, and the accommodation of domestic policy concerns (maintaining policy stability and public support). Our results unveil a policy dilemma for the EU, having to choose between maximising the reform effort and minimising non-compliance. Drawing on this model, we discuss extensively the policy options that the EU faces in trying to enhance the reform performance, growth trajectories and, ultimately, European perspective of the countries in the region.

The Impact of Environmental Factors on Italy Illegal Migration Policy in the New Millennium

Italy migration policy reflects a dynamic process since the early 1990s when human trafficking and illegal migration became salient issues on the national and global levels. Italy migration policy interacts and adapts to the surrounding internal and external environments. As far as the method of this study is concerned, a legitimate question was asked: Is Italy national interest navigates its migration policy more than its global commitments? This study assumes that internal and external elements affect Italy migration policy; therefore, it was divided into four main sections: the internal-external aspects of Italy migration policy outputs, external causes of Italy migration dilemma, continuity and change in Italy migration policy. Since the focus of this study is on the internal-external aspects of Italy migration policy output; the process of making laws and concluding treaties and agreements was described and analysed through a comparative perspective. Further emphasis was on the impact of globalization, Sub-Saharan Africa underdevelopment and Libya instability upon this policy. Several aspects of continuity, e. g., adopting enforced controls approach, and change, e. g., internal and external milieus, are identified. The findings of this study indicate that Italy migration policy is not only succeeded in the process of interacting and responding to the internal-external environments, e. g., concluding the agreement with Libya in 2017, but it also reflects a human dimension, e. g., saving illegal migrants lives overseas. The results of this study largely support the underlying hypothesis that assumes the impact of internal and external elements upon Italy migration policy.

Psychiatry past and present: do we need history?

Historical evidence can be useful to inform debate about current dilemmas in health service policy. However, concepts of historical analysis may be problematic for doctors, for whom a model of 'history' is often based on clinical history-taking: a clinical history aims to explain the present, whereas a historical analysis aims to elucidate the past. This article discusses and illustrates these concepts, and highlights potential pitfalls of poor historical methodology. It also provides pointers about researching the history of psychiatry in the UK and how to contribute historical evidence to health service policy debates today.Declaration of interestNone.

Paradox of plenty: Norway’s macroeconomic policy dilemmas during the oil price crash, 2014-15

Norway, a country at the top of global rankings in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and human development was also in an enviable position with large current account and fiscal surpluses, as well as a massive stock of public assets. Then came a shock; between June 2014 and early 2016 oil prices tumbled by more than 70 percent. As a major oil exporter, Norway’s current account was severely impacted but could this actually draw Norway into a macroeconomic crisis? Couldn’t it just fund its way out of the contractionary pressures building up in the economy using its stock of foreign currency reserves being held in a sovereign wealth fund? This article explores the fiscal and monetary policy challenges that Norway faced in preempting falling GDP growth and rising unemployment while at the same time, warding off a housing bubble going bust.

An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Interest Rates to Facilitate Price Stability and Economic Growth in South Africa

Abstract Price stability supports accelerated economic growth (GDP), thus the main objective of most central banks is to ensure price stability. The South African economy is experiencing a unique monetary policy dilemma, where a high inflation rate is accompanied by high interest rates and low GDP. This is an unconventional monetary policy scenario and may hold strenuous repercussions for the South African economy. This dilemma was held as the rationale behind this study. The study investigated the effectiveness of the use of the repo rate as an instrument to facilitate price stability and GDP in South Africa. Long-run, short-run and casual relationships between interest rates, inflation and GDP were therefore analyzed. The methodology is based on an econometric process which included a Johansen co-integration test, with a Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Casual relationships were also tested using Granger causality tests. Results of the Johansen Co-integration test indicated the presence of co-integrating long-run relationships between the variables and a significant and negative long-run relationship between the repo rate and inflation rate was revealed, whereas GDP and inflation rate exhibited a significant and positive long-run relationship. The study also found short-run relationships between inflation and GDP, but not for inflation and the repo rate. Further areas of potential research may fixate towards the assessment of other significant alternative policy tools which may be utilized by various countries’ monetary policy authorities to influence supply specific inflationary pressures led by the cost-push phenomena, especially in the short-run.

REDD+ as a Public Policy Dilemma: Understanding Conflict and Cooperation in the Design of Conservation Incentives

Command-and-control policies are often criticized as insufficient to tackle tropical deforestation. Over the past two decades, both academics and policy-makers have promoted incentive-based policies, notably REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), as attractive alternatives to curb forest loss, while also potentially contributing to the poverty reduction of forest-dwelling populations. Governments have been the driving force behind the largest incentive-based forest conservation programs in Latin America. Many science-based recommendations on how to design effective incentive-based policies have, however, not found much resonance within policy circles. To understand the gap between recommendations and practice, it is important to analyze how these schemes are designed towards achieving environmental and non-environmental outcomes. To this end, we analyzed the comprehensive history of governance dynamics behind two government-led incentive schemes in Ecuador and Peru. We found that electoral interests and bureaucratic politics exerted pressure on policy design teams, which eventually traded off long-term societal efficiency concerns against short-term administrative goals. Priority was often given to non-environmental concerns, due to perceptions of political feasibility, the influence of non-environmental government agencies, and beliefs in particular government roles or public response. These findings are especially relevant for scholars studying the design, implementation and impacts of incentive-based conservation policies, and for practitioners aiming to enhance policy efficiency.

Brexit: EU social policy and the UK employment model

AbstractBig claims that are often unsubstantiated are made about the likely impact of Brexit on the UK labour market. This article seeks to go beyond the rhetoric and present a careful assessment of the employment relations consequences of Brexit for the UK. It addresses four key questions in particular: will Brexit end UK engagement in the EU's free movement of labour regime and if so, what will be the labour market consequences for the UK?; to what extent will Brexit weaken employment rights in the UK?; what impact will Brexit have on the behaviour of trade unions and on the functioning of collective bargaining in the UK?; and finally, what will be the effect of Brexit on the interactions between London and Brussels on wider employment policy questions. The article argues that Brexit poses acute policy dilemmas for the UK Government that are likely to generate considerable political and economic uncertainty. The fallout from this uncertainty is hard to predict in advance. It could either open the door to a Corbyn‐led Labour Government or alternatively to an even more thorough‐going deregulation of the UK labour market.

Analysis of the inherent energy-food dilemma of the Nigerian biofuels policy using partial equilibrium model: The Nigerian Energy-Food Model (NEFM)

The Nigerian government plans to produce bioethanol from its staple food crops to increase transport fuel supply, reduce imported motors fuels, create jobs and diversify its oil-dependent economy. However, the conflicts between the benefits of biofuels and the potential impacts on food security requires analysis to quantify fuel, food, economy and employment metrics to inform policy decision making.Drawing upon a bespoke partial equilibrium model, the Nigerian Energy-Food Model (NEFM), regionalised into the existing six geo-political zones of Nigeria: North-West, North-East, North-Central, South-West, South-South and South-East to ensure conformity with the existing administrative and economic units of Nigeria and facilitate quicker adoption and implementation of achieved results, was developed, populated using secondary data from different data sources and personal research visits to the Nigerian government agencies, and implemented via General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS).Ethanol production analysis result from the model indicates that cassava is the economically ‘optimal’ feedstock, followed by sugarcane, in all six geo-political zones of Nigeria. The results demonstrate that Nigeria has the potential to produce sufficient feedstock and food crops to meet the current domestic ethanol, crop export and crop consumption demands, without affecting domestic food security in the short-run, due to availability of vast fertile uncultivated arable land and unemployed labour, providing positive energy, economic and employment benefits in the short term. Nevertheless, future expansion of the bioethanol programme to double current national ethanol and food consumption demands, would result in significant impacts on national land-use change, negatively impacting on domestic food production and increasing food prices.It is recommended that Nigeria's future biofuels' policy requires a carefully-articulated land-use policy to ensure that land allocation to bioethanol feedstock production is tempered by the need to allocate arable land to food production, in order to avoid consequential adverse impacts on its food security.

Encountering the Policy Dilemma of the Effective Rate of the Value Added Tax on Tobacco Products

Encountering the Policy Dilemma of the Effective Rate of the Value Added Tax on Tobacco Products

“No Fracking Way” vs. “Drill Baby Drill”: A Restructuring of Who Is Pitted Against Whom in the Narrative Policy Framework

Narratives are highly consequential in policy processes because they shape public perception of policy issues. The Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) seeks to predict the extent to which narratives are strategically used to influence policy outcomes. Its core hypotheses center around a winning vs. losing dichotomy, in which winning and losing narratives employ distinct sets of strategies. Due to the newness of the theory, there are few empirical tests of its components, and their results are inconclusive. We posit that the winning–losing paradigm does not accurately predict narrative strategy use. To test this hypothesis, we examine a policy dilemma where contextually similar jurisdictions adopted multiple different policy solutions over a common time period. From 2008 to 2012, more than 260 New York municipalities passed policies related to hydraulic fracturing (fracking). We analyze editorial content from two local newspapers in central New York whose distribution covers municipalities that adopted anti‐ and pro‐fracking policies. Our findings reveal that narrators consistently use narrative strategies that correspond to the side of the issue they support, regardless of whether they are winning or losing the policy debate. This suggests the NPF's winning–losing dichotomy may not be not well suited to predicting narrative strategy use or policy outcomes.