Policy Behavior Research Articles

Realism and Rationality

ABSTRACT This article takes up the important recent argument of Mearsheimer and Rosato that states are rational in their foreign policy behavior and that their rationality can be defined in terms of the quality of their decision-making process. In particular, they define a state decision as rational if the decision makers engage in a deliberative process with a final choice based on a credible theory. First, I take up other notions of rationality familiar from the statistical and economic literature, arguing that these other definitions are more useful for realist theory. Then, by contrast with Mearsheimer and Rosato, I argue that what is fundamental about realism in international relations theory is a focus on the subjectively rational pursuit of state security, regardless of the process used to attain it. This approach incorporates most realist theorizing while allowing for the great diversity of state behavior predicted by various realist doctrines and observed in reality. Within realism, I maintain that the distinction between revisionist and status quo states cannot be elided as neorealism attempts to do. Finally, I argue that domestic politics, too, is best understand in realist terms, even in democratic states.

Analysis of Vegetation Restoration Potential and Its Influencing Factors on the Loess Plateau: Based on the Potential Realization Model and Spatial Dubin Model

Improvements in vegetation coverage are driven by both resource endowment conditions and policy behaviors. To accurately reflect the vegetation restoration effect after ecological policies, this study used the potential realization model to calculate the potential realization degree of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau and to assess the vegetation restoration effect after the Grain for Green Program from 2000 to 2020. Then, the influencing factors were explored using the spatial Dubin model. The results reveal that (1) the EVI value of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi increased from below 0.25 at the beginning of the study to approximately 0.35 by the end, indicating that the green territory of the Loess Plateau gradually expanded to the northwest over the study period, and that the east and west of the Loess Plateau are key areas of vegetation cover for further improvement; (2) compared to the traditional EVI indicator, the potential realization degree can more accurately evaluate the vegetation restoration effect driven by ecological policies; (3) policy intensity is positively correlated with the growth rate of the vegetation restoration potential realization degree by 0.183 and significant at 1% level, making it the primary factor influencing the effect of vegetation restoration. Additionally, annual average precipitation and annual sunshine percentage have significant spatial positive contributions to the improvement of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau. The study’s findings are expected to contribute to the development of a scientific basis for adjusting the vegetation restoration policy on the Loess Plateau and enhancing ecological restoration efforts.

"Invisible Force" or Diplomatic Powerlessness? (American Diplomacy Through the Eyes of CIA Director William Burns)

The memoirs of William Burns, the American diplomat and director of the Central Intelligence Agency, paint a wide panorama of U.S. foreign policy. These memoirs are particularly relevant because they document the role of the United States in destabilizing the world order that emerged following the Second World War, including its participation in fomenting crises in the post-Soviet space that led to the development of the Ukrainian crisis and the beginning of a special military operation by Russia. The memoirs are not only the testimony of an informed eyewitness but also a valuable source on the modern history of international relations, since they are supplemented with declassified diplomatic documents of the American State Department. These documents, now part of the academic record, clarify both the patterns of American foreign policy behavior and the destructive role of the United States in numerous crises, many of which, according to the documents presented, were predicted by W. Burns as inevitable long before the escalation occurred.

Compliance Behavior in Environmental Tax Policy

This study examines compliance behavior in the context of environmental tax policies, highlighting the essential role that these policies play in achieving the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Environmental taxes are crucial instruments for reducing environmental damage and increasing energy efficiency. Nevertheless, taxpayer compliance, which is impacted by several variables, including social acceptability, regulatory quality, and perceptions of fairness, is a key component of these policies’ efficacy. In contrast to earlier research, which frequently concentrated on certain kinds of tax or discrete policy mechanisms, this study takes a broad approach, looking at a range of environmental taxation instruments. Emerging trends, significant factors influencing compliance behavior, and noteworthy contributions from eminent authors and organizations are all identified via bibliometric and scientometric analyses. To create fair and effective environmental tax policies, interdisciplinary approaches and international collaboration are required. Along with presenting policies to improve environmental regulation compliance, this study offers insightful advice for businesses that can help them innovate toward sustainability and adjust to shifting policy. It also provides a solid theoretical base for future researchers by highlighting important areas that require more investigation, especially when it comes to the wider effects of environmental taxes on various industries.

Ազգային դերի հայեցակարգերի ձևավորումն ու փոխակերպումը արդի միջազգային հարաբերություններում

The purpose of this article is to assess the significance of national role conceptions (NRCs) in the analysis of states' foreign policy by highlighting their internal and external dimensions. The article evaluates the significance of role theory in the context of different schools of international relations. The article compares existing definitions of NRCs and identifies their specific limitations, including the limitation of engagement levels, the assumption of internal consensus, and the neglect of role dynamics. The article proposes a new definition of NRCs that includes a dynamic and collective understanding of a nation's strategic goals, considering both internal cultural and social factors as well as external environmental shifts and influences. As a result, the analysis of NRCs is proposed as an effective tool for addressing theoretical and practical issues in international relations, with the goal of explaining and predicting foreign policy behavior.

New development: Addressing wicked policy problems through cross-government collaboration—Insights from the UK context

IMPACT The article identifies the policy behaviours that are related to either taming complexity or coping with complexity. Analysing these policy behaviours at different levels within central and local governments can help policy-makers to navigate the constantly changing landscape of global policy challenges, understanding how each one of them can enable a shift towards either encouraging them to explore the complexity of policy issues by coping with complexity or moving towards taming such complexity in order to, for example, encourage policy coherence. In turn, this leads to highlighting the importance of further developing the policy capabilities needed to deal with the complexity of wicked problems. The empirical data collected in this study will allow for a deeper exploration of such policy implications.

The Foreign Policy Behaviour of the Nationalist Action Party in Türkiye: Aspirations, Actions, and Limitations

The Foreign Policy Behaviour of the Nationalist Action Party in Türkiye: Aspirations, Actions, and Limitations

“Efficiency of Carlson Modeling of Eutrophication of the Inner Bay - Puno Lake Titicaca”

Objectives: Determine the degree of water contamination, expressed as a percentage of pure water; Quantify and evaluate water quality; recognize the sources of pollution and know the most relevant pollutants of the channels and mechanisms of eutrophication. Theoretical Framework: Pollution, water quality, pollution sources, tributaries-channels and eutrophication mechanisms. Method: The trophic state index of Carlson (1977) or TSI (Trophic State Index) was used. It is a longitudinal study from 2008 to 2016. With 15 sampling points, 12 times a year, evaluating the physical, chemical and microbiological parameters at each sampling point at 20% and 80% of the water column. Results and Discussion: Use modeling to predict the concentration of contaminants for the different treatment alternatives. Likewise, give a description of a model to estimate water quality. In conclusion, we indicate that the Carlson trophic state index has determined that the most relevant pollutants in the eutrophication process of the Interior Bay are nutrients and phosphates, these coming from the discharge of domestic wastewater from the city of Puno. Research implications: The study will serve to evaluate the behavior of water quality and implement mitigation policies. Originality/Value: This study will contribute to monitoring and treating wastewater.

Assessing Japan’s Taiwan Policy: Systemic Clarity, Political Survival and Bureaucratic Prudence

ABSTRACT What are the patterns of Japan’s foreign policy behavior toward Taiwan in the post-Cold War era? It is generally taken for granted that the origin of Japan’s foreign policy to Taiwan has been derived from a unitary strategic calculation related to East Asian international politics and its maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region. This conventional interpretation is insufficient. While external pressure and states’ relative material capabilities within the structure of the international system are crucial in explaining Japan’s policy toward Taiwan, interpretations based solely on the system level of analysis fail to provide a persuasive explanation of Japan’s foreign policy behavior. By conducting three case studies in 2006, 2019 and 2021 through the theoretical lens of neoclassical realism and empirical investigation based on primary and secondary Japanese-language sources, this article argues that Japan’s Taiwan policy has been shaped by the combination of three factors: the degree of systemic clarity at the international level, the Japanese prime minister’s political survival and bureaucratic prudence over the Taiwan issue at the domestic level. Since 2021, Japan has adopted a subtle approach to Taiwan, driven more by a defensive and precautionary response to the heightened sense of crisis across the Taiwan Strait.

Description of COVID-19 Vaccination Behavior in Rural and Urban Communities in Serang District

Public health status in Indonesia can be influenced by the implementation of healthy behavior in the community. There are differences in behavior between people in rural and urban areas and factors that can cause vaccine delays that have the potential to affect COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Indonesia. This study aims to determine the behavior of COVID-19 vaccination in rural and urban communities in Serang Regency. This study used a descriptive research design with a quantitative approach which was conducted in October−November 2021 with a sample of 334 people aged 18−59 years. The results showed that the vaccination status of the respondents was complete dose (rural 65.3% and urban 70.3%), waiting for dose 2 (rural 22.4% and urban 18.6%), and dose 1 had been received but the dosing schedule 2 had passed (rural 12.3% and urban 11.1%). Three perceptions that are still low in percentage are perceptions of vulnerability, perceptions of obstacles, and cues to act. Some of the reasons for stopping the termination of COVID-19 in the community are not yet feeling that they will have severe symptoms if exposed to COVID-19, feeling confused about information related to COVID-19, not being able to carry out COVID-19 vaccinations because the schedule for COVID-19 vaccination program coincides with other activities, did not receive an invitation from the local government to vaccinate against COVID-19, vaccinate because people in their environment had vaccinated against COVID-19, did not receive support from cadres or religious leaders for the COVID-19 vaccination. Improved policy behavior can be improved by changing perceptions of vulnerability to COVID-19, reducing barriers, and also providing cues according to education through social media with the key message of spending the full dose of vaccine.

Foreign Policy and Public Support for War: New Experimental Evidence

ABSTRACT This paper investigates how foreign policy decisions shape US public support for military intervention on behalf of a state that is under attack. In particular, we consider two key questions. First, does a defender’s foreign policy behavior shape the public’s willingness to defend it? Second, what impact do US “hands-tying” policies, including alliance treaties, public threats, and tripwire forces, have on public support? We use a survey experiment to shed new light on these questions. Our experiment indicates that defender foreign policy matters; the public is more likely to support defenders that have contributed to previous US military operations, and less likely to support defenders that provoked their attackers. We also find that US hands-tying policies have a significant effect on public opinion. Interestingly, these impacts are statistically indistinguishable from one another; no one hands-tying policy is superior as a means of bolstering public demand for war.

Responding to the crisis: Japan’s changing foreign policy and ODA to Ukraine (2014–2023)

The Russian aggression on Ukraine (2022) has marked a significant critical juncture for Japan’s foreign and security policies, and Japanese government has deployed a multitude of political, economic/financial, and limited military measures to support Ukraine. The article investigates a less-explored aspect of Japan’s foreign policy change in the post-2022 crisis setting, namely the development assistance provided to Ukraine. The manuscript discusses this subject from a long-term perspective, exploring the trends in—and directionality of—Japanese development assistance to Ukraine in the context of Japan’s evolving role in the international community between 2014 and 2023. It utilises a role theoretical approach to explore the frictions between the ambitious proactive contributor to peace national role conception promoted by PM Abe Shinzō (2012–2020) and the issue-specific role conceptions guiding Japan’s foreign policy behaviour towards Russia that shaped Japan’s response to the Ukraine-Russia tensions. The article elucidates how the fluctuations in Japanese ODA flows to Ukraine may contribute to our understanding of role conflict and how it was managed, as well as the rebalancing of and changes in Japanese foreign policy that have been occurring since 2022 under PM Kishida Fumio’s leadership.

Does Leadership Matter? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani, and the Change in Iranian Foreign Policy

Following Rouhani's victory in the 2013 presidential elections, Iran's foreign policy (IFP) underwent significant changes after over a decade under Ahmadinejad. To date, only a few academic studies have attempted to incorporate a specific individual-level theory into their respective analyses, even though a large body of literature contends that leadership change is the decisive factor in differences in Iran's policy towards the US and the EU. This study analyzes the leadership styles of Ahmadinejad and Rouhani to reveal the possible impact of decision-maker personalities on foreign policy, and to develop an account of the moderation in IFP. Accordingly, it asks, “How does leadership style influence IFP towards the 'Western world'?" Theoretically, the study benefits from Hermann’s ‘Leadership Trait Analysis’ to find out the impact of leaders’ personalities on foreign policy behaviors of states. Empirically, it analyzes both presidents’ spontaneously selected political speeches, consisting of their answers in interviews and press conferences. Methodologically, the study utilizes the software Profiler Plus to assess individual traits of leaders. Interpreting leadership trait scores of two presidents, the study concludes that certain leadership features allow the construction of foreign policies that are more moderate.

‘Crawling dissatisfaction’: understanding China’s bilateral approach towards South China Sea disputes

ABSTRACT China’s foreign policy behaviour has been highly scrutinized in the last decade. Its foreign policy approach towards neighbouring countries is no exception. Scholars have mostly focused on China’s hard, soft, or ‘dual’ approach to explaining Beijing’s current foreign behaviours corresponding to the South China Sea dispute. However, specific studies on China’s bilateral approach remain understudied, while understanding regarding this matter might result in a better perspective towards regional peace and stability. This paper, thus, has two aims: firstly, it goes beyond rationalist perspectives in understanding China’s bilateral approach; secondly, it provides an explanation of why China chose this approach. It is, therefore, argued that China’s bilateral approach is vastly influenced by Chinese strategic culture as an effort to seek stability. It, moreover, also argues that China’s bilateral approach is not a mere an image of its soft diplomatic approach but more deeply it is a practice of its dissatisfaction towards the liberal order embraced by ASEAN. By choosing a bilateral approach, while formally maintaining multilateralism, China ‘crawlingly’ promotes a non-liberal approach towards ASEAN.

Do leaders really matter? The failure of ambitions in Turkish foreign policy

The field of international relations is recently witnessing an inflation of attention toward political leaders and personalities. Yet, while political leaders mattered to understand foreign policy behaviors, the question is how much they do and under what conditions. This article argues that how leaders and personalities affect foreign policy is up to the variables that can be analyzed at the state and international levels. To illustrate this argument, I use the example of two strong, influential, and revisionist Turkish leaders: Turgut Özal and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The results point out that the main determinative on Turkish foreign policy on these leaders’ period is not their personality as argued. Instead, the main variables we should analyze are the presence domestic and international constraints such as dominant foreign policy actors, economic capacity, political polarization, and international conjunctures.

INFLUENCE OF NEO-OTTOMANISM TRADITIONS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF RUSSIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS: THEORY AND PRACTICE

The article examines the problems of the current state of Russian-Turkish relations through the analysis of the theoretical and methodological apparatus of neo-Ottomanism (new Ottomanism) as a foreign policy tradition, which, from the author’s point of view, today occupies one of the leading places in the foreign policy course of the current government of R.T. Erdogan. The complexity and uncertainty of this phenomenon require the use of specialized analysis methods: a system-structural analysis of the foreign policy of states (developed by the corresponding MGIMO school), a scientific approach within the framework of FPA (foreign policy analysis), separate tools for analyzing the strategic culture and foreign policy institutions of Ankara (according to the methodology of G. Almond and S. Verba). According to the author, for the current foreign policy of Ankara, the tradition of neo-Ottomanism is system-forming due to its ideological saturation of the initial ideological foundation. At the same time, the ambiguity of its interpretations lays down an expansive interpretation of Turkey’s foreign policy behavior in the international arena, which is fraught with problems and conflicts for Moscow’s foreign policy in realizing its interests in areas of international politics that cross Ankara.

A Review of Environmental Factors for an Ontology-Based Risk Analysis for Pandemic Spread

Contact tracing is a method used to control the spread of a pandemic. The objectives of this research are to conduct an empirical review and content analysis to identify the environmental factors causing the spread of the pandemic and to propose an ontology-based big data architecture to collect these factors for prediction. No research studies these factors as a whole in pandemic prediction. The research method used was an empirical study and content analysis. The keywords contact tracking, pandemic spread, fear, hygiene measures, government policy, prevention programs, pandemic programs, information disclosure, pandemic economics, and COVID-19 were used to archive studies on the pandemic spread from 2019 to 2022 in the EBSCOHost databases (e.g., Medline, ERIC, Library Information Science & Technology, etc.). The results showed that only 84 of the 588 archived studies were relevant. The risk perception of the pandemic (n = 14), hygiene behavior (n = 7), culture (n = 12), and attitudes of government policies on pandemic prevention (n = 25), education programs (n = 2), business restrictions (n = 2), technology infrastructure, and multimedia usage (n = 24) were the major environmental factors influencing public behavior of pandemic prevention. An ontology-based big data architecture is proposed to collect these factors for building the spread prediction model. The new method overcomes the limitation of traditional pandemic prediction model such as Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) that only uses time series to predict epidemic trend. The big data architecture allows multi-dimension data and modern AI methods to be used to train the contagion scenarios for spread prediction. It helps policymakers to plan pandemic prevention programs.

The Case for an Expressive Logic of Action

Abstract How can scholars theorize about phenomena like the eroding support, within the West, for the liberal democratic practices that once defined the post-1945 international order? Cumulative evidence shows that resentment toward out-groups shapes public attitudes toward issues like immigration and globalization, bolstering support for isolationist foreign policies in Western democracies. Yet, these findings contrast with the logics of action—based on means-end calculations, shared norms, practices, or habit—that IR scholars use to develop theory. Because existing logics provide a limited vocabulary to theorize about group processes with crucial symbolic and affective features, an important dimension of foreign policy behavior remains undertheorized. In this article, I draw on multi-disciplinary research to develop an expressive logic of action, whereby political behavior expresses an actor's social identification. Based on this logic, group attachment provides a compelling motivation for political behavior, whose activation depends on an interaction between issue framing and psychological dispositions. By focusing on the distinctive features of expressive behavior and specifying the mechanisms behind this behavior, an expressive logic encourages theory development and refinement across domains.

Monetary policy in advanced and emerging economies

Abstract We are motivated by central bank responses to the rise in inflation in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic and investigate monetary policy behavior in advanced and emerging economies. We speak to the debate on whether the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies is fundamentally different from that in advanced economies. We also address the issue of whether the common practice of using market rates (instead of policy rates) to proxy for the stance of monetary policy leads to different conclusions regarding the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging economies. Using time series data for the G7 and EM7 countries, we show that the conventional wisdom that monetary policy in emerging economies is different from monetary policy in advanced economies still holds.

Comparative study of government expenditure on social protection in the Visegrád Group and Benelux

Socio-economic policies aim to promote equitable income distribution, with social protection playing a crucial role. Balancing equality and efficiency in redistribution poses a challenge for policy-makers. The welfare state-market compatibility dilemma and its impact on incentives are primary concerns. This study evaluates government expenditures on social protection in Benelux and Visegrád Group (V4) countries from 1995 to 2021. Trends in expenditure share indicate varying fiscal policy behaviors: Visegrád Group countries show convergence in expenditure share, while Benelux countries exhibit divergence. The structure of social protection spending also differs, with old age being a dominant category. These findings provide insights into welfare systems and can guide policy decisions in European regions.