Foreign Policy and Public Support for War: New Experimental Evidence

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper investigates how foreign policy decisions shape US public support for military intervention on behalf of a state that is under attack. In particular, we consider two key questions. First, does a defender’s foreign policy behavior shape the public’s willingness to defend it? Second, what impact do US “hands-tying” policies, including alliance treaties, public threats, and tripwire forces, have on public support? We use a survey experiment to shed new light on these questions. Our experiment indicates that defender foreign policy matters; the public is more likely to support defenders that have contributed to previous US military operations, and less likely to support defenders that provoked their attackers. We also find that US hands-tying policies have a significant effect on public opinion. Interestingly, these impacts are statistically indistinguishable from one another; no one hands-tying policy is superior as a means of bolstering public demand for war.