Poleward Movement Research Articles

Projected North Equatorial Current/Countercurrent toward an El Niño–Like Condition in the Western Pacific under Moderate and Worst-Case CO2 Emission Scenarios

Abstract Validating the mean state and historical trends of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) in 36 phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models and 32 phase 6 CMIP models with those in ocean reanalysis products, this study extracts the most qualified 17 model outputs to explore the projected changes in NEC and NECC in the western Pacific Ocean under scenarios of moderate- and worst-case CO2 emissions. NEC and NECC are robustly predicted to have an El Niño–like change, in which the NEC (NECC) tends to intensify with a poleward (equatorward) movement, during the twenty-first century under both scenarios. Meanwhile, the Kuroshio and Mindanao Current are projected to become weaker. A change in the meridional gradient of basin-scale wind stress curl in the tropical Pacific Ocean is the major contributor to the centennial changes in NEC and NECC; however, anomalous wind stress curl dipole on the two sides of NEC off the eastern Philippines is the major factor in controlling the western boundary currents. This study not only represents a step forward in understanding the impact of global warming on the western tropical Pacific surface circulation but also serves as a reference for downscaled modeling, which can better resolve regional circulation and western boundary currents, for selecting suitable inputs from a large number of CMIP models. Significance Statement The North Equatorial Current and Countercurrent are important surface currents transporting massive heat and mass zonally across the tropical Pacific Ocean. With verified modeling outputs of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this study aims at understanding the 100-yr tendencies of the two currents in the western Pacific Ocean during the twenty-first century. The outcome shows that the North Equatorial Current (Countercurrent) tends to intensify with a poleward (equatorward) movement associated with the changes in the meridional gradient of wind stress curl across the entire tropical Pacific Ocean. The 100-yr tendencies are similar to those during an El Niño event. Meanwhile, Kuroshio and Mindanao Current are projected to be weaker during the twenty-first century due to the anomalous wind stress curl dipole off the Philippines in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. This study provides an understanding about the impact of global warming on the western tropical Pacific surface circulation and helps to select suitable initial conditions, boundary conditions, and forcing from a large number of CMIP models when conducting a downscaling modeling for the western Pacific area.

Blocking microtubule deacetylation inhibits anaphase chromosome movements in crane-fly spermatocytes.

Chromosome movement speeds during anaphase are regulated by depolymerization of microtubules. Several models describe chromosome movement during cell division but none of them consider post-translational modifications of tubulin, even though such modifications help specify microtubules for unique cellular activities. Among these modifications, acetylation of Lysine 40 is one of the common post-translational modifications. Acetylation of microtubules greatly improves their stability, especially when subjected to cooling or drug treatment. Since kinetochore microtubules are acetylated in a variety of eukaryote cells, we wondered whether deacetylation of kinetochore microtubules was necessary in order for microtubules to be able to depolymerize during anaphase. HDAC6 (Histone Deacetylase 6) deacetylates acetylated tubulin. To study whether tubulin must be deacetylated during anaphase, we added to living cells two different HDAC6 inhibitors (Tubacin and Trichostatin A), separately, as chromosomes moved poleward in anaphase. Both HDAC6 inhibitors altered chromosome movement: chromosomes either completely stopped moving, or moved more slowly, or sometimes continued movement without speed changes. The effects of the inhibitors on chromosome movement are reversible: half-bivalents either restarted anaphase movement by themselves before washing out the inhibitor or resumed their poleward movement after the inhibitor was washed out. We suggest that kinetochore microtubules need to be deacetylated in order for normal anaphase movements to occur.

Do Seasonality and Latitude Dictate the Formation of Strong or Weak Volcanic Eruption Plumes?

AbstractIn this study, we propose a method to predict the classification of the eruption plume types: “strong plumes” and “weak plumes”. Our method reproduces the general features that the eruption plume types depend on, both the meteorological conditions and eruption conditions, and successfully reproduces the classification of the plume types for historical eruption events. Application of the method to Monte Carlo simulations revealed that eruption plumes at a low latitude tend to form strong plumes due to weak ambient winds, whereas eruption plumes at a mid latitude tend to form weak plumes due to the strong ambient winds associated with the jet stream. The simulation also revealed that mid‐latitude eruption plumes tend to be strong plumes in the summer when ambient winds are lowered by a weakening and poleward movement of the jet stream.

Surface temperature modulations induced by Rossby Wave Breaking over Indian region

Abstract Upper-level Rossby Wave Breaking (RWB) significantly affects surface weather patterns in the subtropical Indian region through influencing wind circulation often resulting in extremes in rainfall and surface temperatures. While the impact of RWB on rainfall is relatively well understood, its role in modulating surface temperatures within the Indian subcontinent is less explored. This study examines the link between pre-monsoon (March to May) RWB events and the occurrence of extreme surface temperatures and heatwaves by considering long-term data of 43 years between 1979 and 2021. We identify 139 RWB events using a potential vorticity (PV) contour searching algorithm over the Indian sub-continent. Our analysis reveals a significant amplification in temperature both to the west and east of the breaking PV streamers. These temperature anomalies, which last for 3–4 days during the breaking events, strongly correlate with the maximum day of breaking. Further, regression analyses explain the reasons behind the temperature enhancement mainly on the western and eastern flank of RWB. It indicates a positive association between upper-level PV anomalies and anticyclonic circulations at 250 hPa, along with subsidence at 500 hPa, leading to drier conditions in the western and eastern regions of the PV streamers. Additionally, the decomposition of temperature anomalies during RWB events reveals that surface warming is primarily driven by diabatic heating on both sides of the centroid, with stronger adiabatic heating in regions of upper-level anticyclonic circulation and significant temperature advection predominantly on the western side of the centroid, resulting in dry weather and the poleward movement of warm air toward the ridges near the PV streamers.

Limited net poleward movement of reef species over a decade of climate extremes

Limited net poleward movement of reef species over a decade of climate extremes

Effect of magnetospheric conditions on the morphology of Jupiter’s ultraviolet main auroral emission as observed by Juno-UVS

Auroral emissions are a reflection of magnetospheric processes, and at Jupiter, it is not entirely certain how the morphology of the UV main emission (ME) varies with magnetospheric compression or the strength of the central current sheet. This work leverages the observations from Juno-UVS to link ME variability with particular magnetospheric states. We employed novel arc-detection techniques to determine new reference ovals for the ME from perijoves 1 through 54, in both hemispheres, and analysed how the size and shape of the ME vary compared to this reference oval. The morphology and brightness of the ME vary in local time: the dawn-side ME is typically expanded, while the dusk-side ME is contracted, compared to the reference oval, and the dusk-side ME is twice as bright as the dawn-side ME. Both the northern and southern ME and the day-side and night-side ME expand and contract from their reference ovals synchronously, which indicates that the variable size of the ME is caused by a process occurring throughout the Jovian magnetosphere. The poleward latitudinal shift of the auroral footprint of Ganymede correlates with the poleward motion of the ME, whereas a similar relation is not present for the footprint of Io. Additionally, the expansion of the ME correlates well with an increase in magnetodisc current. These two results suggest that a changing current-sheet magnetic field is partially responsible for the variable size of the ME. Finally, magnetospheric compression is linked to a global ME contraction and brightening, though this brightening occurs predominantly in the day-side ME. This observation, and the observation that the dusk-side ME is typically brighter than the dawn-side ME, stands in contrast to the modelled and observed behaviour of field-aligned currents and thus weakens the theoretical link between field-aligned currents and the generation of the auroral ME.

Digitizing the Williamstown, Australia Tide‐Gauge Record Back to 1872: Insights Into Changing Extremes

AbstractFor Williamstown tide gauge, at the northern‐most point of Port Phillip Bay (PPB), Melbourne, Victoria, tide registers from 1872 to 1966 and marigrams from 1950 to 1966, were digitized to extend sea‐level records back almost 100 years. Despite some vertical datum issues in the early part of the record, the data set is suitable for extreme sea‐level trend analysis after removal of the annual mean sea level. The newly digitized data was combined with the digital record to produce a combined record from 1872 to 2020. Analysis of this record revealed known problems of siltation of the tide gauge stilling well and associated reduction in tidal range at times during 1880–1895 and 1910–1940. A positive trend in tidal amplitude of 0.41 ± 0.01 mm yr−1 was found over 1966–2020, likely due to reduced hydraulic friction at the narrow entrance to PPB. Extreme sea‐level trends were examined over 1872–2020 for storm tides (the combination of storm surge and tide) after removal of the annual mean, and residuals after subtraction of the predicted tides. A non‐stationary Gumbel distribution with a time‐varying location parameter revealed statistically significant declining trends in the residuals of −0.73 ± 0.02 mm yr−1, consistent with the observed poleward movement of storm surge‐producing mid‐latitude weather systems. For storm tides a smaller declining trend of −0.40 ± 0.01 mm yr−1 was found. These trends are approximately an order of magnitude smaller than the current positive rates of mean sea level rise, meaning that storm tide hazard will continue to increase in the future. This information is relevant for future adaptation planning.

A Lagrangian theory of equatorial upwelling

An explicit expression is derived for the speed of equatorial upwelling by filtering out the inertial oscillations from the wind-forced, Lagrangian, dynamics north and south of the equator. The derivation focuses on the poleward motion of the steady states of the meridional dynamics of water columns of unit zonal length forced by a uniform, westward directed, wind stress. A significant advance is achieved by substituting the pseudo angular momentum for the zonal velocity in all equations. The derived expression for the speed is independent of the Ekman layer's depth and varies linearly with the wind stress. Its only free parameter is the initial meridional extent of the water column that straddles the equator. The theoretical speed matches available observations of the upwelling speed when the column's meridional extent is 350–400 km on each side of the equator.

Warming-induced hydrothermal anomaly over the Earth’s three Poles amplifies concurrent extremes in 2022

Climate warming is causing an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves and extreme precipitation events, posing a threat to both socioeconomic stability and human lives. In 2022, five record-breaking heatwaves and floods occurred, it is suggested a new concurrent extreme feature in the study, which is linked to the three Poles warming and ice/snow melting. The independent and synergistic effect of the three Poles warming has led to the poleward movement of westerly jet streams and amplified Rossby waves, as well as the expansion of subtropical highs in both poleward and zonal directions. Consequently, these have intensified heatwaves in the mid-high latitudes and extreme precipitation events in the Asian regions, combined with a southward displacement and weakening of the inter-hemispheric Asian summer monsoon circulations, which are response to poleward of the mid-latitude and subtropical circulations and the hydrothermal effects of the three Poles. This study highlights the significance of three Poles warming in driving amplified concurrent extremes across tropical and extratropical regions, particularly in 2022. These findings provide valuable insights into the role of snow/ice melting and related hydrothermal factors in global climate predictions and disaster prevention efforts.

Different Propagation Mechanisms of Deep and Shallow Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over the North Pacific

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are three-dimensional synoptic systems in the middle and high latitudes. Previous studies on ETC propagation have typically focused on cyclones identified at a single level. However, more recent studies have found that ETCs have diverse vertical structures and cyclones with different vertical extents always exhibit distinct characteristics and surface impacts. In this work, we study the movement of wintertime (December–February) extratropical cyclones by classifying North Pacific ETCs into deep cyclones, shallow low-level cyclones, and shallow upper-level cyclones, based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. Applying a Lagrangian perspective, we track the cyclones at different vertical levels to investigate the different characteristics and mechanisms for the propagation of deep and shallow ETCs. A potential vorticity (PV) tendency analysis of cyclone-tracking composites reveals that, for deep cyclones, the diabatic heating at 850 hPa and the horizontal advection by the stationary flow at 500 hPa are the main contributors to the poleward movement. For shallow cyclones, the nonlinear advection terms play a dominant role in their meridional motion, advecting shallow low-level cyclones poleward but shallow upper-level cyclones equatorward. A piecewise PV inversion analysis suggests that the nonlinear advection by winds induced from upper-level PV anomalies is responsible for the different performance of nonlinear advection terms for shallow low-level and upper-level cyclones. These findings further our understanding of the mechanisms and variations of cyclone propagation. Significance Statement Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can be identified at different levels in the troposphere. These mobile low pressure cyclonic storms are the main sources of synoptic variability in the extratropics and often bring severe or even disastrous weather. Previous studies on ETC movement have typically been restricted to cyclones identified at a single level. Our study, by identifying ETCs at multiple levels, classifies cyclones into deep, shallow low-level, and shallow upper-level cyclones. For deep cyclones, their poleward movement is found to be a result of diabatic heating at lower levels and dominated by the stationary circulation at upper levels. For shallow cyclones, nonlinear advection determines whether they propagate poleward or equatorward. These findings further our understanding of the mechanisms of cyclone propagation and imply that the movement of deep and shallow cyclones may undergo different changes with different weather and climate impacts in the future, given the enhanced diabatic heating under global warming, which deserves further investigation.

Winter Subtropical Highs, the Hadley Circulation and Baroclinic Instability

AbstractSubtropical highs have a profound influence on the weather and climate of adjacent continents. In this study, we use reanalysis data to investigate the interannual variability and trends in winter subtropical highs from 1979 to 2021. We find dynamical relationships between subtropical high intensity, the Hadley and Ferrel Circulation intensity, and the Eady Growth Rate (EGR). A poleward shift of the maximum in EGR is associated with a strengthening of the descending branches of the Ferrel and Hadley Cells, with subtropical troposphere adiabatic warming and an increased intensity and poleward movement of the subtropical highs. Shifts in the poleward EGR are dominated by changes in vertical wind shear which, in turn, are in thermal wind balance with variations and trends in temperature. The mechanism for the intensification of the subtropical highs involves feedbacks from high‐frequency transient eddies. Strong North Pacific and South Pacific Subtropical highs are associated with La‐Niña conditions. We also show that the mechanisms for interannual variations are similar to those for trends in the highs.

Orbitally-forced meridional shifts of the westerlies modulated the hydroclimate of northeast China during the late Eocene

The mid-latitude westerlies are a fundamental component of the global climate system. There has been extensive research about how meridional shifts of the westerlies influenced the wet-dry paleoclimate regimes of mid-latitude Asia during the Quaternary. However, how the westerlies operated in much older geological times, such as the late Eocene, particularly on an orbital time scale, is not fully understood. Here, we conducted detailed cyclostratigraphic and palynological analyses on a late Eocene (41.2–37.8 Ma) mudstone-shale sedimentary sequence from the Fushun Basin in northeast China, which uniquely records orbitally-forced meridional shifts of the westerlies. Cyclostratigraphic analyses reveal that the mudstone-shale rhythms exhibit a prominent short eccentricity cycle, with a modest expression of obliquity cycles and a weak expression of precession cycles. The palynological results show that the vegetation experienced frequent alternations between semi-desert and swamp forest, and the climate exhibited periodic oscillations between warm-dry and cold-wet climates. We propose that a combination of eccentricity-modulated low-latitude summer insolation and obliquity-forced high-latitude incipient ice sheet and meridional temperature gradient variations drove cyclical vegetation and hydroclimate fluctuations in northeast China during the late Eocene by regulating the intensity and displacement of the westerlies and the subtropical high. Our results imply that continued poleward movement of the westerlies and the subtropical high will lead to increased aridification along the southern margin of the westerlies under a continuous global warming scenario.

Geoinduced currents on Karelian-Kola power line and finnish gas pipeline on september, 12–13 2017

Geomagnetic activity and occurrence of large values of geoinduced currents (GICs) during a moderate magnetic storm (SYM/H ∼ −65 nT) on September, 12–13 2017 have been studied. Two intense substorms (AL ∼600 nT and ∼1200 nT) were observed within the period of this magnetic storm. Amplification and motion of electrojets during substorms is known to be one of the important sources of GIC value increase in the auroral zone. The fine spatial temporal structure of westward electrojet has been analyzed using the latitudinal profiles of the IMAGE network and the equivalent currents of the MIRACLE system data. GICs activity were monitored by EURISGIC from Russian stations Vykhodnoy (VKH) and Revda (RVD) in the North-West of Russia (eurisgic.ru) and Mäntsälä station (MAN) in South Finland. The data from these stations are convenient to track GIC from ∼60° to ∼69° geographical latitudes. It has been shown that the increase in GIC amplitudes at different latitudes was associated with the poleward movement of the westward electrojet during the expansion phase of the substorm. Besides, it has been found that the source of the GICs at the recovery phase of the second substorm appeared to be a short pulse of Pc5 pulsations and the amplitudes of GICs were comparable with substorms one. It is also shown that the increase in GIC amplitude are in good agreement with the increase in the Wp- and IL-geomagnetic indices used for global and local control over the substorm appearance.

The Long-term variability of Global Typical Oceanic Fronts

Using high-resolution NOAA Optimum Interpolation sea surface temperature (OISST) data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of typical oceanic fronts in the past 39 years, including Oyashio front, Gulf Stream front, Peru current front and southern Indian Ocean polar front, are analyzed. The results show that the intensities of the four typical fronts have all strengthened, among which the Peru current is the most significant and the South Indian Ocean polar front is the weakest. The movement of the fronts are quite different: the Oyashio front has a significant poleward movement, and the Gulf Stream front extending into the open sea part has a marginal poleward movement; while the south Indian Ocean polar front and Peru current front have no obvious movements.

Studies on the variability of mean winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region (MLT) over Kolhapur (16.8oN, 74.2oE)

We present the study of mesospheric winds in the 78–98 km height range using observations by a partial reflection radar station (MF–radar) situated at Kolhapur (16.8° N, 74.2° E), India. The sequential wind profiles over the period of 2014–2019 obtained from this radar operated at 1.98 MHz are used for this study. To delineate the behaviour of the winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, we use wind data providing horizontal wind velocities averaged for an hour. Details of the seasonal, annual, and inter-annual variations and also the climatology of mean motion in zonal (East-West) and meridional (North-South) components in the MLT region over the aforementioned period are presented. The zonal wind below 90 km has been observed with eastward flow for the period of solstices and westward flow at equinoxes, showing strong semi-annual oscillations (SAO). While above 90 km, annual oscillations (AO) are seen to be dominant. Annual oscillations (AO) are observed in the mean meridional wind, with poleward motion during winter and equatorward motion during the remaining seasons. At higher altitudes (above 92 km), the poleward motion weakens and the equatorward wind flow becomes strong.

Decoupling pioneering traits from latitudinal patterns in a north American bird experiencing a southward range shift.

Ecogeographic rules describe spatial patterns in biological trait variation and shed light on the drivers of such variation. In animals, a consensus is emerging that 'pioneering' traits may facilitate range shifts via a set of bold, aggressive and stress-resilient traits. Many of these same traits are associated with more northern latitudes, and most range shifts in the northern hemisphere indicate northward movement. As a consequence, it is unclear whether pioneering traits are simply corollaries of existing latitudinal variation, or whether they override other well-trodden latitudinal patterning as a unique ecogeographic rule of phenotypic variation. The tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor is a songbird undergoing a southward range shift in the eastern United States, in direct opposition of the poleward movement seen in most other native species' range shifts. Because this organic range shift countervails the typical direction of movement, this case study provides for unique ecological insights on organisms and their ability to thrive in our changing world. We sampled female birds across seven populations, quantifying behavioural, physiological and morphological traits. We also used GIS and field data to quantify a core set of ecological factors with strong ties to these traits as well as female performance. Females at more southern expansion sites displayed higher maternal aggression, higher baseline corticosterone and more pronounced elevation of corticosterone following a standardized stressor, contrary to otherwise largely conserved latitudinal patterning in these traits. Microhabitat variation explained some quantitative phenotypic variation, but the expansion and historic ranges did not differ in openness, distance to water or breeding density. This countervailing range shift therefore suggests that pioneering traits are not simply corollaries of existing latitudinal variation, but rather, they may override other well-trodden latitudinal patterning as a unique ecogeographic rule of phenotypic variation.

Sub‐Auroral Flows and Associated Magnetospheric and Ionospheric Phenomena Developed During 7–8 September 2017

AbstractThis study investigates the Sub‐Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) and Sub‐Auroral Ion Drifts (SAID) along with the associated magnetospheric and ionospheric phenomena developed during 7–8 September 2017. Then, a series of substorms occurred before and during the geomagnetic storm (SYM‐Hmin = −146 nT). Results are obtained by utilizing multi‐point observations. These show that during the pre‐storm period, when the ElectroMagnetic Ion‐Cyclotron waves resulted in drop‐out events, a series of sunward (westward) SAID‐in‐SAPS flows developed in the dusk‐midnight sector due to the small‐scale flow bursts reaching the SAPS channel and the westward SAPS flows were streaming antisunward after midnight. During the storm period, dawnside sunward (eastward) SAPS also developed, Kelvin‐Helmholtz (K‐H) vortices rolled along the magnetopause and the hot zone became structured by reflected K‐H waves near the plasmapause leading to auroral undulations (AUs). New findings include the correlation of AUs and K‐H waves in the structured hot zone implying that the Near‐Earth Plasma Sheet acted as a resonator after activation by the K‐H vortices on the magnetopause. Further evidence is provided by the dayside Equatorward Boundary Intensification and Poleward Moving Auroral Forms of which development was supported by the K‐H vortices on the magnetopause by carrying the magnetosheath plasma into the magnetosphere. Adding to previous studies, new results also include the correlated observations of storm‐enhanced density (SED) plume and poleward drifts underlying both the equatorward plasma bubbles and the higher latitude plasma density depletions, and thus verifying their poleward movement within the SED base and SED plume.

Separase and Roads to Disengage Sister Chromatids during Anaphase.

Receiving complete and undamaged genetic information is vital for the survival of daughter cells after chromosome segregation. The most critical steps in this process are accurate DNA replication during S phase and a faithful chromosome segregation during anaphase. Any errors in DNA replication or chromosome segregation have dire consequences, since cells arising after division might have either changed or incomplete genetic information. Accurate chromosome segregation during anaphase requires a protein complex called cohesin, which holds together sister chromatids. This complex unifies sister chromatids from their synthesis during S phase, until separation in anaphase. Upon entry into mitosis, the spindle apparatus is assembled, which eventually engages kinetochores of all chromosomes. Additionally, when kinetochores of sister chromatids assume amphitelic attachment to the spindle microtubules, cells are finally ready for the separation of sister chromatids. This is achieved by the enzymatic cleavage of cohesin subunits Scc1 or Rec8 by an enzyme called Separase. After cohesin cleavage, sister chromatids remain attached to the spindle apparatus and their poleward movement on the spindle is initiated. The removal of cohesion between sister chromatids is an irreversible step and therefore it must be synchronized with assembly of the spindle apparatus, since precocious separation of sister chromatids might lead into aneuploidy and tumorigenesis. In this review, we focus on recent discoveries concerning the regulation of Separase activity during the cell cycle.

The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

During the last two decades, the number of tropical cyclone (TC) events in the Arabian Sea has increased dramatically. These events have led to severe human and economic damage in Oman, Iran and Pakistan. Within this context, Gonu, Phet and Shaheen were the Arabian Sea's most destructive TCs on record, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. Previous studies have mainly focused on atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic impacts of TC generation and intensification. By contrast, oceanographic currents, Persian Gulf water outflow and the role of ocean-atmospheric interactions on the distribution of outflow water into the Arabian Sea and their impacts on TC intensification, are poorly understood. In order to address this issue, we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and reanalyzed oceanographic data to shed new light on the relationship between large-scale atmospheric forcing and ocean currents on TC intensification in the Arabian Sea. The results demonstrate that pre-monsoon TCs mainly occurred during co-existing La Niña, cold Indian Ocean Basin Model (IOBM) and anomalous northern hemisphere circulations over the Persian Gulf. By contrast, post-monsoon TCs were generally generated during warming acceleration period. Poleward movement of the monsoon belt provided the required humidity and energy for TC generation and increased upwelling events. Water salinity and temperature have increased in the north and northwestern parts of the Arabian Sea following rising upwelling events and a decrease in Persian Gulf outflow water depth. Rapid TC intensification has increased noticeably since 2007 and >72 % of cyclones have reached category 3 or more. We find that the rate of SST rise in the Arabian Sea is higher than the other parts of the northern Indian Ocean since 1998. SST and salinity in the Arabian Sea have been controlled by Persian Gulf outflow water and oceanographic currents. TC intensity is controlled by warm and saline (>36.6 PSU) water distribution patterns, mediated by eddy and jet currents. Rapid intensification of pre-monsoon TCs occurred by tracking to the north and northwest, with most landfalls occurring during this period. Post-monsoon TCs generally affect the center and the southwest of the Arabian Sea. The risk of intensive TCs manifests an increasing trend since 2007, therefore education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries most at risk.

Ocean warming favours a northern Argyrosomus species over its southern congener, whereas preliminary metabolic evidence suggests that hybridization may promote their adaptation.

Anthropogenic-induced climate change is having profound impacts on aquatic ecosystems, and the resilience of fish populations will be determined by their response to these impacts. The northern Namibian coast is an ocean warming hotspot, with temperatures rising faster than the global average. The rapid warming in Namibia has had considerable impacts on marine fauna, such as the southern extension of the distribution of Argyrosomus coronus from southern Angola into northern Namibian waters, where it now overlaps and hybridizes with the closely related Namibian species, A. inodorus. Understanding how these species (and their hybrids) perform at current and future temperatures is vital to optimize adaptive management for Argyrosomus species. Intermittent flow-through respirometry was used to quantify standard and maximum metabolic rates for Argyrosomus individuals across a range of temperatures. The modelled aerobic scope (AS) of A. inodorus was notably higher at cooler temperatures (12, 15, 18 and 21°C) compared with that of A. coronus, whereas the AS was similar at 24°C. Although only five hybrids were detected and three modelled, their AS was in the upper bounds of the models at 15, 18 and 24°C. These findings suggest that the warming conditions in northern Namibia may increasingly favour A. coronus and promote the poleward movement of the leading edge of their southern distribution. In contrast, the poor aerobic performance of both species at cold temperatures (12°C) suggests that the cold water associated with the permanent Lüderitz Upwelling Cell in the south may constrain both species to central Namibia. This is most concerning for A. inodorus because it may be subjected to a considerable coastal squeeze.