The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

The negative feedback between tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and sea surface temperature (SST) plays an important role in TC development. In this study, ocean–atmosphere coupled and uncoupled ensemble forecasts are conducted to investigate the dynamics of error growth and predictability of TC intensity in an ocean–atmosphere coupled system. For the TC–ocean coupled system, the TC intensity–SST negative feedback is the essential mechanism to reduce the error growth of TC intensity by two routes, and thereby improves the TC intensity predictability. For the first route (atmosphere-limited route), the TC-induced SST cooling slows the intensification rate of the TC and weakens the final TC intensity, thereby reducing the error growth of TC intensity. In this route, the TC intensity spread is limited by the magnitude of TC intensity, while SST can be regarded as an environmental forcing. For the second route (atmosphere–ocean mutually influenced route), the interaction between the TC intensity spread and SST spread is dominant. The increasing TC intensity spread could lead to an increase in SST cooling spread, and then reduce the TC intensity spread through the negative feedback. In other words, the more (less) intense TC produces stronger (weaker) SST cooling, and thereby limits (enhances) further TC intensification in an ensemble forecast. In the second route, initial ocean temperature uncertainty could suppress the TC intensity spread reduction. Significance Statement Tropical cyclones force the sea surface and can lead to its cooling. This cooled sea surface can then suppress tropical cyclone intensification. The purpose of this study is to better examine the influence of such an interaction between a tropical cyclone and the ocean on tropical cyclone forecasts. We explore how accurately representing the interaction can improve the capacity to forecast tropical cyclone intensity. Given that many weather forecasting centers have considered this interaction in their models, this study should help them to understand and improve their forecasts.

طوفان‌های حاره از پدیده‌های مهم پیرامون خط استوا هستند که در نیمه گرم سال در نیمکره شمالی یا جنوبی ایجاد می‌شوند. این چرخندها با گذر از اقیانوس و تکیه‌بر منبع عظیم انرژی گرمایی نهان تبخیر، قدرت قابل‌توجهی می‌یابند و در مدت کوتاهی به یکی از مخرب‌ترین مخاطرات طبیعی تبدیل می‌شوند. هدف این مطالعه، مقایسه و تحلیل ساختاری چرخندهای دریای عرب و عمان به‌منظور بررسی نقش پارامترهای جوی، اقیانوسی در تعیین مسیر حرکت آن‌هاست. بدین منظور با استفاده از آمار موجود در مرکز مشترک اخطار طوفان، اطلاعات مربوط به چرخندها تهیه شد. همچنین با استفاده از داده‌های باز تحلیل پایگاهECMWF متغیرهای فشار سطح دریا، ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل سطح 850 هکتوپاسکال، دمای سطح 1000هکتوپاسکال و دمای سطح دریا در محدودۀ -5 تا 40 درجه عرض شمالی و 40 تا 80 درجه طول شرقی برای مدت‌زمان حیات چرخند استخراج گردید. تولید و تحلیل نقشه‌ها نیز در محیط GRADS و ArcGis با استفاده از تغییرات آزیموت، روابط همبستگی و قوانین کشش و رانش انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که در لحظه تشکیل، جهت حرکت همه چرخندها به‌غیراز گونو شمال غرب بوده و همبستگی قوی منفی بین دما و فشار سطح دریا در زمان شروع وجود داشته است. اما به‌جز چرخند گونو در سایر چرخند‌ها زمان تغییر مسیر بازمان رسیدن آن به اوج، یکی نیست. تحلیل نقشه‌های فشار سطح دریا نیز نشان داد که مسیر حرکت چرخندهای موردمطالعه از قوانین کشش و رانش پیروی کرده و حاکمیت پرفشارها در فصل سرد باعث شده چرخندهای نیلوفر و چاپالا نسبت به سایر، به سمت عرض-های بالا گسترش پیدا نکنند.

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. Here, it is shown that the relationship between SST and TC intensification varies considerably from basin to basin, with SST explaining less than 4% of the variance in TC intensification rates in the Atlantic, 12% in the western North Pacific, and 23% in the eastern Pacific. Several factors are shown to be responsible for these interbasin differences. First, variability of SST along TCs’ tracks is lower in the Atlantic. This is due to smaller horizontal SST gradients in the Atlantic, compared to the Pacific, and stronger damping of prestorm SST’s contribution to TC intensification by the storm-induced cold SST wake in the Atlantic. The damping occurs because SST tends to vary in phase with TC-induced SST cooling: in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Atlantic, where SSTs are highest, TCs tend to be strongest and their translations slowest, resulting in the strongest storm-induced cooling. The tendency for TCs to be more intense over the warmest SST in the Atlantic also limits the usefulness of SST as a predictor since stronger storms are less likely to experience intensification. Finally, SST tends to vary out of phase with vertical wind shear and outflow temperature in the western Pacific. This strengthens the relationship between SST and TC intensification more in the western Pacific than in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic. Combined, these factors explain why prestorm SST is such a poor predictor of TC intensification in the Atlantic, compared to the eastern and western North Pacific.

The coral reef ecosystem in Cu Lao Cham, Vietnam is part of the central zone of the Cu Lao Cham -Hoi An, a biosphere reserve and it is strictly protected. However, the impacts of natural disasters - tropical cyclones (TCs) go beyond human protection. The characteristic feature of TCs is strong winds and the consequences of strong winds are high waves. High waves caused by strong TCs (i.e. level 13 or more) cause decline in coral cover in the seas around Cu Lao Cham. Based on the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of TCs, this research determines the number of strong TCs in Cu Lao Cham in the future. Using results from a regional climate change model, the risk is that the number of strong TCs in the period 2021-2060 under the RCP4.5 scenario, will be 3.7 times greater than in the period 1980-2019 and under the RCP 8.5 scenario it will be 5.2 times greater than in the period 1980-2019. We conclude that increases in SST in the context of climate change risks will increase the number and intensity of TCs and so the risk of their mechanical impact on coral reefs will be higher leading to degradation of this internationally important site.

A suite of semiidealized numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity to changes of sea surface temperature (SST) over different radial extents. It is found that the increase of inner SST within the range 1.5–2.0 times the radius of maximum wind (RMW), defined as the effective radius (ER), contributes greatly to the increase of TC intensity and the reduction of TC inner‐core size, whereas the increase of outer SST (defined as SST outside the ER) reduces TC intensity and increases TC inner‐core size. Further analysis suggests that the effects of SST inside and outside the ER on TC intensity rely on the factors that influence the TC development. As the SST increases inside the ER, more surface enthalpy flux enters the TC eyewall and less enters the outer spiral rainbands. This will decrease the RMW, leading to a smaller eyewall radius where strong latent heating is released. As a result, the central pressure of the TC deepens with stronger radial pressure gradient. Meanwhile, the difference between SST and upper tropospheric temperature increases. All factors above contribute to TC intensification as the inner SST increases. The opposite happens as the SST increases outside the ER. How TC intensity responds to the change of the entire SST depends on the competitive and opposite effects of inner and outer SST. Moreover, understanding the mechanisms is vital to the forecast of variations in TC intensity and inner‐core size when a TC comes across an ocean cold or warm pool.

This study explores the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) spatial heterogeneity on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity through a combination of observations and simulations, aiming to provide a reference for further improving TC intensity forecasting skills. Two distinct patterns of SST spatial heterogeneity are identified based on a statistical analysis of observational data, when the SST at the TC center is above and below 29.3°C, respectively. One is a warm‐core pattern (WCP) with a warm peak SST at the TC center decreasing centrifugally which favors TC development, and the other one is a poleward‐decreasing pattern (PDP) with a warm SST at the south decreasing poleward which suppresses TC development. The numerical simulations confirm the opposite influence of the WCP and the PDP on TC intensity. The WCP intensifies TC intensity by strengthening TC secondary circulation, increasing the conversion from ocean heat energy to TC kinetic energy, and compacting TC structure. In contrast, the PDP weakens TC intensity by inducing opposing responses of these processes. The magnitude of TC intensity change caused by SST spatial heterogeneity is comparable to those caused by a 1°C change in SST at the TC center. These findings offer valuable insights into the role of SST spatial heterogeneity in TC development and provide a new perspective to improve TC intensity forecasting by incorporating SST spatial heterogeneity into statistical‐dynamic models.

Climatological characteristics of simulated intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific were explored with a 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM20) and a 5-km-mesh regional atmospheric nonhydrostatic model (ANHM5). From the AGCM20 climate runs, 34 intense TCs with a minimum central pressure (MCP) less than or equal to 900 hPa were sampled. Downscaling experiments were conducted with the ANHM5 for each intense TC simulated by the AGCM20. Only 23 developed into TCs with MCP ≤ 900 hPa. Most of the best-track TCs with an MCP ≤ 900 hPa underwent rapid intensification (RI) and attained maximum intensities south of 25°N. The AGCM20 simulated a similar number of intense TCs as the best-track datasets. However, the intense AGCM20 TCs tended to intensify longer and more gradually; only half of them underwent RI. The prolonged gradual intensification resulted in significant northward shifts of the location of maximum intensity compared with the location derived from two best-track datasets. The inner-core structure of AGCM20 TCs exhibited weak and shallow eyewall updrafts with maxima below an altitude of 6 km, while downscaling experiments revealed that most of the intense ANHM5 TCs underwent RI with deep and intense eyewall updrafts and attained their maximum intensity at lower latitudes. The altitudes of updraft maxima simulated by the AGCM20 descended rapidly during the phase of greatest intensification as midlevel warming markedly developed. The change in major processes responsible for precipitation in AGCM20 TCs before and after maximum intensification suggests close relationships between the large-scale cloud scheme and midlevel warming and prolonged gradual intensification.

As the climate warms, sea surface temperature (SST) is projected to increase, along with atmospheric variables which may have an impact on tropical cyclone (TC) properties. Climate models have well-known errors in simulating current climate SSTs that will likely affect future TC projections. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of SST changes will help us identify the largest uncertainty in projecting TC changes. This study employs three different and independent methodologies to investigate the impact of sea surface and atmospheric temperature changes and tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics, focusing on three historically damaging TCs in the Philippines: Typhoons Haiyan, Bopha, and Mangkhut. These methodologies include initially simulations with uniform SST anomalies between −4 to +4°C, then experiments using delta from CMIP6 CESM2 for SST and atmospheric temperature in the far future, and, finally, simulations imposing Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE) conditions. The experiments reveal significant insights into TC dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Changes in SSTs resulted in changes in TC track, intensity, and rainfall. In the positive SST simulations, TCs tended to move northwards and resulted in substantial increases in maximum wind speeds reaching a difference of up to 10, 13, 23 ms−1 for Typhoons Haiyan, Bopha, and Mangkhut, respectively. Analysis of the accumulated rainfall also showed that increased SST results in increased rainfall. Inclusion of atmospheric warming offsets the intensification due to SST change. Moreover, warmer SSTs resulted in slower-moving TCs and increased TC size. Further analyses incorporating atmospheric temperature adjustments derived from CESM2 and RCE simulations offer better insights on TC response. Under near-RCE conditions, TCs exhibit reduced sensitivity to SST changes, with smaller intensity and size modifications simulated when stable relative humidity is imposed. The smaller changes in TC intensity and size observed in these experiments suggest that maintaining atmospheric stability through pre-storm atmospheric adjustments dampens the response of TCs to SST warming.

Ocean Heat Content (OHC) plays a significant role in modulating the intensity of Tropical Cyclones (TC) in terms of the oceanic energy available to TCs. TC Heat Potential (TCHP), an estimate of OHC, is thus known to be a useful indicator of TC genesis and intensification. In the present study, we analyze the role of TCHP in intensification of TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) through statistical comparisons between TCHP and Cyclone Intensities (CI). A total of 27 TCs (20 in the Bay of Bengal, and 7 in the Arabian Sea) during the period 2005–2012 have been analyzed using TCHP data from Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) model of Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services and cyclone best track data from India Meteorological Department. Out of the 27 cyclones analyzed, 58% (86%) in the Bay (Arabian Sea) have negative correlation and 42% (14%) cyclones have positive correlation between CI and TCHP. On the whole, more than 60% cyclones in the NIO show negative correlations between CI and TCHP. The negative percentage further increases for TCHP leading CI by 24 and 48 hours. Similar trend is also seen with satellite derived TCHP data obtained from National Remote Sensing Center and TC best track data from Joint Typhoon Warming Centre. Hence, it is postulated that TCHP alone need not be the only significant oceanographic parameter, apart from sea surface temperature, responsible for intensification and propagation of TCs in the NIO.

There is decreasing trend in the tropical cyclone (TC) number over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) in recent years, though there is increasing trend in the sea surface temperature (SST) which is one of the main environmental parameters for the development and intensification of TCs. Hence, a study has been performed to understand whether any trend exists in other TC parameters such as velocity flux (VF), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and power dissipation index (PDI). The interseasonal and interannual variations of VF, ACE and PDI for the NIO as a whole and Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (AS) are analysed based on the data of 1990–2013 (24 years). Role of large scale features like El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) have also been analyzed. The mean ACE per year for TCs [maximum sustained wind of 34 knots (kt) or more] over the NIO is about 13.1 × 104 kt2 including 9.5 × 104 kt2 over the BOB and 3.6 × 104 kt2 over the AS. The mean PDI per year for TCs over the NIO is about 10 × 106 kt3 including 3 × 106 kt3 over the AS and 7 × 106 kt3 over the BOB. The VF, ACE and PDI of TCs are significantly less over BOB during post-monsoon season (Oct.–Dec.) of El Nino years than in La Nina and normal years. The VF for TCs over the BOB during post-monsoon season is significantly less (higher) during positive (negative) IOD years. There is significant decreasing trend at 95 % level of confidence in ACE and PDI of TCs over AS during post-monsoon season and PDI over the BOB and NIO during pre-monsoon season mainly due to similar trend in average intensity of TCs and not due to trends in SST over Nino regions or IOD index.

From the consideration of thermal energy, the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones largely depends upon the Sea Surface Temperature (SST). In this paper an empirical relationship between SST and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal has been developed using a sample of 60 cyclones from 20 years data (1981–2000). The relationship between SST and MPI is found to be linear. The MPI of each storm is computed using this empirical relationship and compared with observed intensity to examine how close the cyclones come to reaching their MPI. The result shows that about 18% of cyclones reach more than 80% of their MPI and about 38% of cyclones reach more than 50% of their MPI at their peak intensity. In general, cyclones attain about 51% of their MPI. The inter‐seasonal variability shows cyclones in the pre‐monsoon and the post‐monsoon seasons tend to reach a higher percentage of their MPI than in the monsoon season. The inter‐annual variability suggests there is appreciable variation in the yearly average of the ratio of observed maximum intensity to the MPI. The MPI could provide useful information to a forecaster about the possible extreme intensity of tropical cyclones, which has direct relevance to disaster management preparedness. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The effect of tropical cyclone (TC) size on TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and subsequent TC intensification is an intriguing issue without much exploration. Via compositing satellite-observed SST over the western North Pacific during 2004–19, this study systematically examined the effect of storm size on the magnitude, spatial extension, and temporal evolution of TC-induced SST anomalies (SSTA). Consequential influence on TC intensification is also explored. Among the various TC wind radii, SSTA are found to be most sensitive to the 34-kt wind radius (R34) (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1). Generally, large TCs generate stronger and more widespread SSTA than small TCs (for category 1–2 TCs, R34: ∼270 vs 160 km; SSTA: −1.7° vs −0.9°C). Despite the same effect on prolonging residence time of TC winds, the effect of doubling R34 on SSTA is more profound than halving translation speed, due to more wind energy input into the upper ocean. Also differing from translation speed, storm size has a rather modest effect on the rightward shift and timing of maximum cooling. This study further demonstrates that storm size regulates TC intensification through an oceanic pathway: large TCs tend to induce stronger SST cooling and are exposed to the cooling for a longer time, both of which reduce the ocean’s enthalpy supply and thereby diminish TC intensification. For larger TCs experiencing stronger SST cooling, the probability of rapid intensification is half of smaller TCs. The presented results suggest that accurately specifying storm size should lead to improved cooling effect estimation and TC intensity prediction. Significance Statement Storm size has long been speculated to play a crucial role in modulating the TC self-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and thus potentially influence TC intensification through ocean negative feedback. Nevertheless, systematic analysis is lacking. Here we show that larger TCs tend to generate stronger SST cooling and have longer exposure to the cooling effect, both of which enhance the strength of the negative feedback. Consequently, larger TCs undergo weaker intensification and are less likely to experience rapid intensification than smaller TCs. These results demonstrate that storm size can influence TC intensification not only from the atmospheric pathway, but also via the oceanic pathway. Accurate characterization of this oceanic pathway in coupled models is important to accurately forecast TC intensity.

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is controlled by their environmental conditions. In addition to the sea surface temperature, tropospheric temperature lapse rate and tropopause height are highly variable. This study investigates the sensitivity of the intensity and structure of TCs to environmental static stability with a fixed sea surface temperature by conducting a large ensemble of axisymmetric numerical experiments in which tropopause height and tropospheric temperature lapse rate are systematically changed based on the observed environmental properties for TCs that occurred in the western North Pacific. The results indicate that the intensity of the simulated TCs changes more sharply with the increase in the temperature lapse rate than with the increase in the tropopause height. The increases in the intensity of TCs are 1.3–1.9 m s−1 per 1% change of the lapse rate and 0.1–0.5 m s−1 per 1% change of the tropopause height. With the increase in the intensity of TCs, supergradient wind at low levels and double warm core structures are evident. Specifically, the formation of the warm core at the lower levels is closely tied with the intensification of TCs, and the temperature excess of the lower warm core becomes larger in higher lapse rate cases.

Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution.

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change exhibits a strong dependence on the current TC intensity. Using western North Pacific TC observations from 1982 to 2018, a threshold SST (TSST) is identified as the SST required to maintain TC intensity. TSST increases with TC intensity, with TCs intensifying and weakening when SST is higher and lower than TSST, respectively. Across the dataset, mean TC intensity change is proportional to the difference between SST and TSST. This study also formulates an equation to quantify TC intensity change using SST and current TC intensity, which replicates 99.46% of the mean observed TC intensity changes. This equation could serve as an alternative to the linear regression‐based relationship between SST and TC intensity change that is widely used in statistical‐dynamical intensity models, thereby improving intensity forecasts.