Polar Project Research Articles

Relevance of the “Polar Index” Project for Sustainable Development of the Russian Sector of the Arctic Zone

Introduction. The following study answers the question whether the “Polar Index” project is a reliable reflection of the development of the Russian Arctic region in the field of sustainable development. Within the framework of this scientific work, the analysis of the general methodology for calculating the "Polar Index" assigned to each of the companies operating in the Russian Arctic was carried out. The analysis made it possible to understand the logic of assigning an organization to one of the three groups, depending on how active its sustainable development policy is.Materials and methods. The materials used in the given article include studies of Russian scientists devoted to sustainable development of the Arctic region, as well as the materials published on the official web-sites of Russian energy companies. In terms of research methodology, the article pays special attention to event analysis aimed at identifying and interpreting key activities and projects that are implemented by Russian companies in the Arctic zone within the framework of sustainable economic, social and environmental development. In order to do this, three Russian energy companies of different levels of participation in the development of the region were selected. Next, for each of these companies, an analysis of its actions and development strategy regarding the Russian segment of the Arctic was carried out.Results of the study. The comparison of the assessment of Russian energy companies’ activities based on the Polar Index and the conclusions regarding the effectiveness of their activities obtained as a result of the event analysis proves that the Polar Index project indeed reflects the effectiveness of the activities of Russian companies in the Arctic region, as well as the degree of their involvement in sustainable development of the polar region in question, with a high degree of reliability.Discussion and conclusion. The research revealed Russian companies, the activities of which to a substantial degree comply with all the three criteria of sustainable development, namely, economic, ecological, and social. That being said, relevant scientific research on the given subject demonstrates that the companies, which managed to achieve the best results in the given sphere, are Rosneft, Norilsky Nikel and Gaspromneft.

Comparing the atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice, a warmer ocean, and increased CO2 and their contributions to projected change at 2 °C global warming

Abstract We consider the combined and individual influences of Arctic sea-ice loss, sea surface temperature (SST) warming, and the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 on the Northern Hemispheric climate. The surface climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and atmospheric circulation responses (e.g., sea level pressure, wind) to these drivers are quantified using simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (for sea-ice loss and SST warming) and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (for increased CO2). We verify the linear additivity of the PAMIP-derived winter responses to sea-ice loss and SST change. The responses to SST change are of greater magnitude than that due to sea-ice loss or due to CO2 direct radiative forcing in most seasons and regions, excluding the Arctic. Notably however, sea-ice loss is at least as important as SST change for the winter atmospheric circulation response over the North Atlantic and Siberia. The dynamical responses to sea-ice loss and SST change oppose each other in many regions in winter, while the responses to SST and CO2 direct radiative forcing are often opposing in summer. Such opposing responses are less evident for the thermodynamical response. The sum of all three responses reproduces well the spatial patterns of change at 2 °C global warming in winter and autumn in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 projections, but overestimates their magnitude.

Influence of Regional Sea Ice Loss on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex

AbstractBased on multi‐model large‐ensemble experiments provided by Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), we investigate the influence of the projected sea ice loss in Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) and Sea of Okhotsk (SOK) on the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). Results show that future BKS sea ice reduction leads to a weakened SPV during November‐February by enhancing the upward‐propagating planetary wave 1, which is more pronounced during Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) easterly than westerly phase. Through weakening the upward‐propagating planetary wave 2, future SOK sea ice reduction is favorable for a strengthened SPV during January‐April. Inter‐model spread in the magnitudes of SPV responses to BKS sea ice reduction can be largely explained by the divergent planetary wave responses, but less so for SOK sea ice reduction. Results from a linearized baroclinic model further validate the importance of the planetary‐scale wave responses in explaining the differing SPV responses to sea‐ice loss over the two regions.

The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation

Abstract. Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags behind lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in numerical weather prediction systems using in situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data and by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing merged observatory data files (MODFs) and merged model data files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (NH-SOP1) in February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variability across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. It is found that many models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of the 2 m air temperature (T2m) and the surface skin temperature to variations in radiative forcing, and the reasons for this are discussed.

The role of Arctic sea ice loss in the interdecadal trends of the East Asian summer monsoon in a warming climate

The East Asian summer monsoon precipitation has exhibited a well-known “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern in recent decades. The increase in aerosols and warming oceans are recognized as two important forcings that control of the precipitation trends over East Asian land. However, in this study, by using large ensemble simulations from the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), the influence of Arctic amplification, serving as the prominent feature of global warming, is very important in modulating the East Asian summer precipitation pattern, which is comparable to the influence of sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the observed “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern only exists in July and August, whereas a triple pattern with the precipitation positive anomaly center over Middle China occurs in June. These patterns are closely connected with the regional differences in Arctic sea ice loss from June to July, affected through both the Rossby waves propagating in a weaker westerly jet and the decrease in the large-scale meridional thermal contrast in a warming climate.

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

Abstract. The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiaġvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

The Use of Weather, Water, Ice, and Climate (WWIC) Information in the Polar Regions: What Is Known after the Decadelong Polar Prediction Project?

Abstract The polar regions are facing a wide range of compounding challenges, from climate change to increased human activity. Infrastructure, rescue services, and disaster response capabilities are limited in these remote environments. Relevant and usable weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) information is vital for safety, activity success, adaptation, and environmental protection. This has been a key focus for the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular its “Societal and Economic Research and Applications” (PPP-SERA) Task Team, which together over a decade have sought to understand polar WWIC information use in relation to operational needs, constraints, and decision contexts to inform the development of relevant services. To understand research progress and gaps on WWIC information use during the PPP (2013–23), we undertook a systematic bibliometric review of aligned scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles (n = 43), examining collaborations, topics, methods, and regional differences. Themes to emerge included activity and context, human factors, information needs, situational awareness, experience, local and Indigenous knowledge, and sharing of information. We observed an uneven representation of disciplinary backgrounds, geographic locations, research topics, and sectoral foci. Our review signifies an overall lack of Antarctic WWIC services research and a dominant focus on Arctic sea ice operations and risks. We noted with concern a mismatch between user needs and services provided. Our findings can help to improve WWIC services’ dissemination, communication effectiveness, and actionable knowledge provision for users and guide future research as the critical need for salient weather services across the polar regions remains beyond the PPP. Significance Statement Every day, people in the Arctic and Antarctic use weather, water, ice, and climate information to plan and carry out outdoor activities and operations in a safe way. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction, technology, and product development, barriers to accessing and effectively communicating high-quality usable observations, forecasts, and actionable knowledge remain. Poorer services, prediction accuracy, and interpretation are exacerbated by a lack of integrated social science research on relevant topics and a mismatch between the services provided and user needs. As a result, continued user engagement, research focusing on information use, risk communication, decision-making processes, and the application of science for services remain highly relevant to reducing risks and improving safety for people living, visiting, and working in the polar regions.

The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss

There is great uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, with some models predicting a shift towards the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while others predicting a more neutral NAO response. We investigate the potential role of systematic model biases in the spread of these responses by modifying the unperturbed (or ‘control’) climate (hereafter referred to as the ‘basic state’) of the Canadian Earth system model version 5 (CanESM5) in sea ice loss experiments based on the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. We show that the presence or absence of the stratospheric pathway in response to sea ice loss depends on the basic state, and that only the CanESM5 version that shows a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex features a strong negative NAO response. We propose a mechanism that explains this dependency, with a key role played by the vertical structure of the winds in the region between the subtropical jet and the stratospheric polar vortex (‘the neck region winds’), which determines the extent to which anomalous planetary wave activity in response to sea ice loss propagates away from the polar vortex. Our results suggest that differences in the models’ basic states could significantly contribute to model spread in the simulated atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, which may inform efforts to narrow the uncertainties regarding the impact of diminishing sea ice on mid-latitude climate.

The response of atmospheric blocking and East Asian cold extremes to future Arctic Sea ice loss

The effect of Arctic warming on cold extremes over middle latitude remains a controversial and unresolved issue, particularly considering potential enhanced Arctic amplification in future scenarios. Here we examine the possible responses of winter cold extremes to the projected sea ice loss under 2 °C global warming scenario in four models, based on the atmosphere-only experiments of the Polar Amplification Model Inter-comparison Project (PAMIP). We find agreement with the increased responses of extreme cold days over East Asia (EA), characterized by longer duration or stronger intensity of temperature drop during cold events. Accordingly, most models exhibit a weak response of the Ural blocking in the corresponding composite circulation fields, whereas the westward movement of an anomalous anticyclonic system from eastern Siberia before the maturing of the Ural blocking is notable in four models. We suggest that this westward shifting pattern may prolong the duration of Ural blocking or modulate the strength of the Northeast Asian cold vortex, resulting in longer or stronger cold anomalies in EA. Accordingly, increased blocking frequency with a more pronounced westward response of shipment signals is also found over eastern Siberia, where a reduced meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) exists. The background of weak PVy can enhance the atmospheric nonlinearity, resulting in the anticyclonic anomalies less prone to dispersion and presenting a westward characteristic. Our results highlight the impact of the nonlinear response of circulation to Arctic sea ice loss. In contrast to more concerned Ural blocking influence, it is suggested that the downstream impact of eastern Siberia blocking on cold extremes in EA may be more pronounced in an enhanced Arctic amplification climate.

Tailored Investments Needed to Support Weather, Water, Ice, and Climate Services in the Polar Regions

Abstract The Polar Prediction Project (PPP), one of the flagship programs of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), has come to an end after a decade of intensive and coordinated international observing, modeling, verification, user engagement, and education activities. While PPP facilitated many advancements in modeling and forecasting, critical investment is now required to turn prediction science into salient environmental services for the polar regions. In this commentary, the members of the Societal and Economic Research and Applications task team of PPP, a group of social scientists and service delivery specialists, identify a number of insights and lessons that are critical for the implementation of the follow-up program Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS). We argue that in order to raise the societal value of polar environmental services, we need to better understand the diversity of highly specific user contexts; to tailor the actionability of weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) service development in the polar regions through inclusive transdisciplinary approaches to coproduction; to assess the societal impact of improved environmental services in the polar regions; and to invest and provide dedicated funding for involving the social sciences in research and tailoring processes across all the polar regions.

Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations

Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes.

The Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Subsequent Surface Impacts as Consequences to Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract This study investigates the stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss and subsequent near-surface impacts by analyzing 200-member coupled experiments using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with preindustrial, present-day, and future sea ice conditions specified following the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly in response to the prescribed sea ice loss, with a larger response to greater ice loss (i.e., future minus preindustrial) than to smaller ice loss (i.e., future minus present-day). Following the weakening of the stratospheric circulation in early boreal winter, the coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to ice loss strengthens in late winter and early spring, projecting onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the lower troposphere. To investigate whether the stratospheric response to sea ice loss and subsequent surface impacts depend on the background oceanic state, ensemble members are initialized by a combination of varying phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV). Different AMV and IPV states combined, indeed, can modulate the stratosphere–troposphere responses to sea ice loss, particularly in the North Atlantic sector. Similar experiments with another climate model show that, although strong sea ice forcing also leads to tighter stratosphere–troposphere coupling than weak sea ice forcing, the timing of the response differs from that in WACCM6. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the stratospheric circulation and subsequent tropospheric variability on seasonal time scales, but modulation by the background oceanic state and model dependence need to be taken into account. Significance Statement This study uses new-generation climate models to better understand the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on the surface climate in the midlatitudes, including North America, Europe, and Siberia. We focus on the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, which involves the weakening of stratospheric winds and its downward coupling into the troposphere. Our results show that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the surface climate in the midlatitudes via the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, and highlight the modulations from background mean oceanic states as well as model dependence.

The Effect of Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones

AbstractTaking advantage of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulations and using a Lagrangian objective feature tracking algorithm, we determine the response of extratropical cyclones to sea‐ice loss and consequent weakening of the equator‐to‐pole near‐surface temperature gradient. The wintertime storm tracks are found to shift equatorward in the North Atlantic and over Europe, and eastward in the North Pacific. In both regions, cyclones become weaker and slower, particularly on the poleward flank of the storm tracks. On average, there are fewer individual cyclones in the extratropics each winter, they last longer, are weaker, and travel more slowly. These changes are greatest over the Arctic, but still statistically significant in midlatitudes despite being small compared to internal variability. Inter‐model spread in cyclone responses are not strongly correlated with that in Arctic warming or Arctic amplification. Little change in summertime cyclones is found.

Winter Precipitation Responses to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Global Ocean Warming and Their Opposing Influences over the Northeast Atlantic Region

Abstract Using a large ensemble of simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we compare the response of winter-mean precipitation and daily extremes across the Northern Hemisphere to future Arctic sea ice loss and global ocean warming. The North Atlantic is simulated to become drier in response to future Arctic sea ice loss, with reduced precipitation intensity and more dry days. A wetting response to sea ice loss is simulated over the midlatitude Atlantic Ocean. These responses are robust across the eight models analyzed, albeit with differences in their magnitude and spatial pattern. The precipitation response to global ocean warming is broadly opposite in sign, but larger in magnitude, compared to the response to sea ice loss, over these regions. The precipitation responses to both sea ice loss and ocean warming are strongly related to coincident changes in storm density and intensity. More specifically, there is an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic storm track in response to sea ice loss, and a northeastern extension of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track in response to ocean warming. The linear combination of the responses of future Arctic sea ice loss and global ocean warming explain well the spatial pattern of the precipitation change at 2°C global warming projected in CMIP6. Our results suggest that the projected future precipitation change over the North Atlantic reflects a “tug of war” between Arctic sea ice loss and global ocean warming, but the latter dominates over the former.

On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe

Abstract. The question to what extent Arctic sea ice loss is able to affect atmospheric dynamics and climate extremes over mid-latitudes still remains a highly debated topic. In this study we investigate model experiments from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) and compare experiments with future sea ice loss prescribed over the entire Arctic, as well as only locally over the Barents and Kara seas, with a present-day reference experiment. The first step is to perform a regime analysis and analyze the change in occurrence frequencies of five computed Euro-Atlantic winter circulation regimes. Forced by future Arctic sea ice conditions, most models show more frequent occurrences of a Scandinavian blocking pattern in at least 1 winter month, whereas there is an overall disagreement between individual models on the sign of frequency changes of two regimes that, respectively, resemble the negative and positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Focusing on the ECHAM6 PAMIP experiments, we subsequently employ a framework of conditional extreme-event attribution. It demonstrates how detected regime frequency changes can be used to decompose sea-ice-induced frequency changes of European temperature extremes into two different contributions: one “changed-regime” term that is related to dynamical changes in regime occurrence frequencies and another more thermodynamically motivated “fixed-regime” contribution that is related to increased surface temperatures during a specific circulation regime. We show how the overall fixed-regime warming effect and also an increased Scandinavian blocking pattern frequency under future sea ice reductions can equally contribute to and shape the overall response signal of European cold extremes in midwinter. We also demonstrate how a decreased occurrence frequency of an anticyclonic regime over the eastern Atlantic dynamically counteracts the fixed-regime warming response and results in no significant changes in overall January warm-extreme occurrences. However, when compared to other characteristics of future climate change, such as the thermodynamical impact of globally increased sea surface temperatures, the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on European temperature extremes are of secondary relevance.

European Winter Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss Strongly Shaped by Change in the North Atlantic Jet

AbstractPrevious studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea‐ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic‐European region to future Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming is analyzed, using model output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree that the North Atlantic jet shifts slightly southward in response to sea‐ice loss, but they disagree on the sign of the jet speed response. The jet response induces a dipole anomaly of precipitation and storm track activity over the North Atlantic‐European region. The changes in jet latitude and speed induce distinct regional surface climate responses, and together they strongly shape the North Atlantic‐European response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss. Constraining the North Atlantic jet response is important for reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic‐European precipitation response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss.

Radiative Effects and Costing Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Albedo Changes

The rapid loss of Arctic Sea ice cover and thickness diminishes the surface albedo, which increases the ocean’s absorption of solar heat and exacerbates the Arctic amplification effect. According to the most recent research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR6), the extent of summer sea ice is anticipated to decrease below 1 million km2 by the 2050s as a result of the extreme climate. Nevertheless, past and future changes in sea ice albedo radiative forcing and the resulting economic cost remain to be explored in systematic and multi-disciplinary manners. In this study, we first analyze the evolution of Arctic sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF) from 1982 to 2100 using a radiative kernel method based on albedo data from the Polar Pathfinder-Extent (APP-x) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Then, the SIRF is converted to CO2 equivalent emissions via the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and Economy (DICE) model. Finally, the associated costs are calculated using the substitute cost method, based on the social cost of carbon to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. The results show that the average Arctic SIRF was −0.75 ± 0.1 W·m−2 between 1982 and 2020, and increased by 0.12 W·m−2 during this period. The SIRF in April–June accounts for nearly 77% of the average annual value, with a maximum absolute value of –3.2 W·m−2 in May. Through model transformation, it is shown that the Arctic SIRF rising leads to global warming comparable to the effect of an increase of 34.5 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere relative to pre-industrialization, and results in a loss of 24.4–48.8 trillion USD for climate regulation service (CRS). From 2020 to 2100, in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, the Arctic SIRF is projected to increase by 0.31 W·m−2. Combined with the discount rate, the estimated average annual cost over the period ranges from 6.7–13.3 trillion USD. These findings provide a systematic understanding of the radiative effect of Arctic sea ice change on the global climate and the corresponding economic cost.

Changes in Winter Temperature Extremes From Future Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss and Ocean Warming

AbstractObserved rapid Arctic warming and sea‐ice loss are likely to continue in the future, unless and after greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to net‐zero. Here, we examine the possible effects of future sea‐ice loss at 2°C global warming above pre‐industrial levels on winter temperature extremes across the Northern Hemisphere, using coordinated experiments from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. 1‐in‐20‐year cold extremes are simulated to become less severe at high‐ and mid‐latitudes in response to Arctic sea‐ice loss. 1‐in‐20‐year winter warm extremes become warmer at northern high latitudes due to sea‐ice loss, but warm by less than cold extremes. We compare the response to sea‐ice loss to that from global sea surface temperature (SST) change also at 2°C global warming. SST change causes less severe cold extremes and more severe warm extremes globally. Except northern high latitudes, the response to SST change is of larger magnitude than that to Arctic sea‐ice loss.

Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea‐Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback

AbstractWe examine the midlatitude jet stream responses to projected Antarctic and Arctic sea‐ice loss and global ocean warming in coordinated multi‐model experiments from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Antarctic and Arctic sea‐ice loss cause an equatorward shift of the winter jet stream in the southern and northern hemisphere, respectively, on average across the models. Models with stronger eddy feedback simulate farther equatorward jet shifts in response to both Antarctic and Arctic sea‐ice loss. The models simulate too weak eddy feedback compared to the real world, particularly in the northern hemisphere, resulting in an underestimation of the boreal jet response to Arctic sea‐ice loss. More precise estimates of the jet shifts are obtained by using the observed eddy feedback as a constraint and suggest that the equatorward jet shifts in response to Antarctic and Arctic sea‐ice loss exceed in magnitude the simulated poleward shifts due to ocean warming.

Simple Hybrid Sea Ice Nudging Method for Improving Control Over Partitioning of Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness

AbstractTo assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions.