Abstract
AbstractBased on multi‐model large‐ensemble experiments provided by Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), we investigate the influence of the projected sea ice loss in Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) and Sea of Okhotsk (SOK) on the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). Results show that future BKS sea ice reduction leads to a weakened SPV during November‐February by enhancing the upward‐propagating planetary wave 1, which is more pronounced during Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) easterly than westerly phase. Through weakening the upward‐propagating planetary wave 2, future SOK sea ice reduction is favorable for a strengthened SPV during January‐April. Inter‐model spread in the magnitudes of SPV responses to BKS sea ice reduction can be largely explained by the divergent planetary wave responses, but less so for SOK sea ice reduction. Results from a linearized baroclinic model further validate the importance of the planetary‐scale wave responses in explaining the differing SPV responses to sea‐ice loss over the two regions.
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