The ecological risk assessment of a product released into the environment is a complex process that takes into account both its ecotoxicity and the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) in the environment. The latter depends on the use, transport, fate (i.e. persistence) of the product. This article describes a model to determine the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) of a biodegradable mulch film taking into account its characteristics, the frequency of application of the mulch film, its degradation rate, and the density of the soil to which it is applied. The effect of temperature on biodegradation kinetics was also taken into account to estimate the biodegradation rate achievable at a given temperature based on data obtained in the laboratory under standard conditions. Using the same approach as for pharmacokinetics, the model can calculate the average mulch film concentration at steady state and the maximum concentration applied. The PEC values can be compared with the Predicted No-Effect Concentration (PNEC) derived from ecotoxicity studies to characterise the risk associated with use of mulch film. The model, if validated by comparison of the calculated PECs with the Measured Environmental Concentrations (MECs), determined by detection and quantification of biodegradable mulch film residues in soil, may provide a valuable tool for the ecological risk assessment of biodegradable mulch films.