AbstractThe model‐generated spatiotemporal maps to forecast the occurrence pattern of plasma density irregularities in the nightside equatorial F region that are responsible for the L‐band scintillations have been put to test, in both space and time, by comparing it with actual observations by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite. The forecast model is based on (i) the temporal variations of the density perturbations during daytime in the Nmax region and (ii) the a priori knowledge of zonal velocity of the perturbations in the postsunset hours. The present study not only substantiates the hypothesis used for the generation of the scintillation forecast but also suggests that the equatorial plasma bubbles remain tied‐up with the initial perturbations which trigger the primary Rayleigh‐Taylor instability. The outcome highlights the need to take into account the altitudinal profile of the topside F region electron density as it could modify the zonal extent of the plasma bubbles that support the generation of the density irregularities and the consequent L‐band scintillations. The present study takes us one more step closer toward the realization of an operational forecast system for satellite‐based navigation.