Plant Shutdown Research Articles

Mitigating the Adverse Consequences of Pandemics: A Short Note with a Special Reference to COVID-19

COVID-19 is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 is reported to have a higher transmissibility than SARS. One reason contributing to its rapid spread is that “many more patients with COVID-19 rather than SARS have mild symptoms,” and as a result miss timely treatment and self-isolation advice (Wilder-Smith et al 2020). Another reason is the lack of “surge capacity” and inefficient “emergency response systems” of countries to cope with the sudden, rapid rise in infected cases. Surge capacity, in general terms, is a healthcare system’s ability to mobilize health resources to meet increased demand in the event of large-scale disasters or public health emergencies. The recent outbreak has exposed the fact that most countries lacked dedicated facilities for conducting lab tests in isolated sites, enough hospital space, cohort ICUs for COVID-19 patients, triage areas for suspected COVID-19 patients, intensive-care beds, appropriately trained workforce, protective masks, modern ventilators and other essential medical supplies. Virus containment measures involving business shutdowns, plant closures, restaurant closures, and workplace closures are likely to cause severe economic losses to many economies for a prolonged period through multiple channels: viz., through demand and supply shocks. These containment measures are likely to hit hard the world’s leading economies and disrupt the global supply chain. The most hard hit countries, including G-7 countries, China and South Korea, account for about 55% of the world’s GDP, about 60% of global manufacturing, and 50% of global manufacturing exports (Baldwin et al 2020). Economic disruptions in these economies heighten the chances of triggering a global economic crisis. Limiting the economic fallout of the coronavirus at both individual country and global levels needs some priorities and swift actions. The first priority is to boost the capacity of countries’ health systems with a focus on reducing mortality and transmission. Another immediate priority action for countries is to adopt large, deficit-financed public investment on a continuing basis (Krugman 2020). Economists have pressed for a decisive and coordinated program of fiscal stimulus among G-20 nations. Another social concern from COVID-19 is the looming danger of an unprecedented scale of human suffering, particularly of the economically weaker and vulnerable section of people in every society, and people in war-torn countries with lack of access to daily living essentials. Finally, to prevent future occurrences of pandemics, internationally collaborative research is needed to understand the “zoonotic” roots of viruses.

Time devoted to home production and retirement in couples: A panel data analysis

We analyse the effects of retirement of one partner on time devoted to home production by both partners in a couple. Using longitudinal data on couples in Germany, we control for fixed household specific effects and allow for endogeneity of retirement using both a regression discontinuity approach and variation in the early and full retirement age across cohorts and with labour market history. Furthermore, we separately estimate the effect of retirement and the effect of lay-off due to an exogenous shock (i.e. plant closure) for each spouse. For both men and women, a transition from work to retirement significantly increases the amount of their own home production. Similar effects are found for other (layoff induced) exits from work. We find much smaller negative cross-effects of retirement or other exits from work on time spent on home production done by the male partner; the effect of the husband's retirement on the wife's home production is not statistically significant.

The impact of PM2.5 on mortality in older adults: evidence from retirement of coal-fired power plants in the United States

BackgroundEvidence of causal relationship between mortality of older adults and low- concentration PM2.5 remains limited.ObjectivesThis study investigates the effects of low-concentration PM2.5 on the mortality of adults older than 65 using the closure of coal-fired power plants in the Eastern United States as a natural experiment.MethodsWe investigated power plants in the Eastern United States (US) that had production changes through unit shutdown or plant retirement between 1999 and 2013. We included only non-clustered power plants without scrubbers and with capacities greater than 50 MW. We used instrumental variable (IV) and difference-in-differences (DID) approaches to estimate the causal impact of PM2.5 concentrations on mortality among Medicare beneficiaries. We compared changes in monthly age-adjusted mortality before and after the retirement of coal-fired plants between the treated and control counties; we accounted for annual wind direction in our selection of treated and control counties. In the models, we initially included only county and monthly fixed effects, and then adjusted for covariates including: 1) only weather variables (temperature, dew point, pressure); and 2) weather variables and socio-economic variables (median household income and poverty rate).ResultsThe monthly age-adjusted mortality rate averaged across all plants was approximately 423 per 100,000 (SD = 69) and was higher for males than females. Mean PM2.5 concentrations across all counties were 12 μg/m3 (SD = 3.78). Using the IV method, we found that reductions in PM2.5 concentrations significantly decreased monthly mortality among older adults. IV results show that a 1-μg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 concentrations leads to 7.17 fewer deaths per 100,000 per month, or a 1.7% lower monthly mortality rate among people older than 65 years. Using the DID approach, we found that power plant retirement significantly decreased: 1) monthly PM2.5 levels by 2.1 μg/m3, and 2) monthly age-adjusted mortality by approximately 15 people per 100,000 (or 3.6%) in treated counties relative to control counties. The mortality effects were higher among males than females and its impact was the greatest among people older than 75 years.ConclusionThese findings provide evidence of the effectiveness of local, plant-level control measures in reducing near-plant PM2.5 and mortality among U.S. Medicare beneficiaries.

Effects of a power plant closure on home ranges of green turtles in an urban foraging area

A natural experiment was conducted to determine effects of a fossil-fueled power plant on home ranges of east Pacific green turtles Chelonia mydas in an urban foraging ground. The power plant, located in south San Diego Bay, California, USA, co-existed with a resident foraging aggregation of ~60 green turtles for ~50 yr. It was decommissioned during a long-term green turtle monitoring study, thus providing a rare opportunity to evaluate how the cessation of warm-water effluent affected turtle movements and habitat use in the area. During pre- and post-decommissioning of the power plant, 7 and 23 green turtles, respectively, were equipped with GPS-enabled satellite transmitters. Useful data were obtained from 17 turtles (4 for pre- and 13 for post-decommissioning). Core use areas (50% utilization distribution [UD]) increased from 0.71 to 1.37 km2 after the power plant decommissioning. Increase in post-power plant 50% UD was greater during nighttime (0.52 to 1.44 km2) than daytime (1.32 to 1.43 km2). Furthermore, UDs moved from the effluent channel to an area closer to seagrass pastures, a presumed foraging habitat of the turtles. The observed expansion of green turtle home ranges may increase turtle-human interactions, such as boat strikes, within the foraging ground; this underscores how seemingly innocuous human actions contribute to inadvertent consequences to wildlife. Possible management and conservation actions include increasing awareness of the public regarding turtle presence in the area through signage and education as well as legislating for a reduction in boat speeds in select areas of the bay.

Study on Reliability Improvement of Voltage Transformers by Increasing Voltage Factor

Voltage transformers (VTs) must be highly reliable as they are essential components of the electric power industry. VT failures can cause a significant impact for important facilities such as nuclear power plants. In fact, VTs which passed the international standard, were damaged and sometimes resulted in the shutdown of the nuclear power plants. In order to improve the reliability, VTs with various iron core was studied. The electromagnetic field simulation, a saturation characteristics test, and an overvoltage breakdown test were conducted. The result shows that the magnetic flux density significantly affects the reliability of VTs. To increase the reliability of VTs, it is required to reduce the magnetic flux density by increasing the knee-point and voltage factor. Owing to limited installation space, increasing the size of the iron core is difficult. Instead, VT by decreasing the thickness of the conductor and increasing the number of turns, it was possible to reduce the magnetic flux density without the size change. Therefore, improved VTs were obtained by decreasing the thickness of the conductor and increasing the number of turns, and the improved reliability was verified through a comparison test with existing VTs. The fabricated VTs shows a significantly higher saturation voltage and breakdown time than existing VTs. Thus, by proposed VTs can contribute the stable operation of the nuclear power plant and improve the manufacturer’s quality.

Coronavirus puts drug chemical industry on alert

Major drug companies have issued statements in recent days assuring the public that their inventories are adequate in the face of supply chain threats stemming from the novel coronavirus. Suppliers of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are also assuring customers that they are prepared for temporary interruption in the supply of key ingredients from firms in China, where the outbreak originated. API makers in Europe and the US warn, however, that supply disruptions could result from a protracted delay in restarting production at plants closed in recent weeks by the Chinese government or from prolonged transportation restrictions. James Bruno, president of the consulting firm Chemical and Pharmaceutical Solutions, says travel restrictions are already interrupting business with Chinese suppliers. “First of all, nobody is going to be able to get to China,” he says, “so all the audits are going to be canceled.” Bruno adds that the restrictions will prolong plant closures

A Shape of the Response Spectrum for Evaluation of the Ultimate Seismic Capacity of Structures and Equipment including High-frequency Earthquake Characteristics

In 2016, an earthquake occurred at Gyeongju, Korea. At the Wolsong site, the observed peak ground acceleration was lower than the operating basis earthquake (OBE) level of Wolsong nuclear power plant. However, the measured spectral acceleration value exceeded the spectral acceleration of the operating-basis earthquake (OBE) level in some sections of the response spectrum, resulting in a manual shutdown of the nuclear power plant. Analysis of the response spectra shape of the Gyeongju earthquake motion showed that the high-frequency components are stronger than the response spectra shape used in nuclear power plant design. Therefore, the seismic performance evaluation of structures and equipment of nuclear power plants should be made to reflect the characteristics of site-specific earthquakes. In general, the floor response spectrum shape at the installation site or the generalized response spectrum shape is used for the seismic performance evaluation of structures and equipment. In this study, a generalized response spectrum shape is proposed for seismic performance evaluation of structures and equipment for nuclear power plants. The proposed response spectrum shape reflects the characteristics of earthquake motion in Korea through earthquake hazard analysis, and it can be applied to structures and equipment at various locations.

Industrial Symbiosis and Territorial Development: The Cross-Fertilization of Proximity Dynamics and the Role of Information and Knowledge Flows

Industrial regions, specialized in heavy industry, currently face many challenges, due to their strong specialization (job losses, closure of plants, etc.) and are looking for new paths of diversification. Industrial ecology can be an engine of this diversification: the industrial symbiosis generated by its implementation is a source of positive externalities stemming from the articulation of geographical, organizational, and cognitive proximities. These externalities strengthen territorial attractiveness and favor the development of a related variety. Using a mixed methodology including the constitution and analysis of database and interviews, we study the case of Dunkirk, pioneer city in France for the implementation of industrial ecology. The empirical results show that the new companies are linked to local ones through eco-industrial synergies. These synergies can be, through the flows of information and knowledge, a source of the emergence of new markets and innovative technologies and thus induce territorial development.

Coal phase-out in Germany – Implications and policies for affected regions

The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according to various phase-out pathways that differ in the ordering of power plant closures. Soft-linking an energy system model with an input-output model and a regional macroeconomic model simulates the socio-economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions, as well as in the rest of Germany. The combination of two economic models offers the advantage of considering the phase-out from different perspectives and thus assessing the robustness of the results. The model results show that the lignite coal regions will exhibit losses in output, income and population, but a faster phase-out would lead to a quicker recovery. Migration to other areas in Germany and demographic changes will partially compensate for increasing unemployment, but support from federal policy is also necessary to support structural change in these regions.

Microstructural Characterization of the Deleterious Effects of Gaseous Carburization on Petrochemical Process Equipment

A manifold pipe made of the wrought Incoloy 800H and handling gaseous hydrocarbons at 820 °C has developed longitudinal cracks leading to unscheduled plant shutdown short of about 17% of the expected service life. The respective hydrocarbons result from steam reforming of methane to produce hydrogen in a series of furnace tubes attached to the pipe and externally heated by outside burners. It is shown that the cracks are of intergranular nature and have resulted from massive precipitation of grain boundary carbides particularly the extremely hard and brittle M7C3-type. This is correlated with substantial absorption of elemental carbon released by chemical reactions among carbonaceous gases and subjecting the pipe to carburization attack. However, the role of possible higher than normal external firing temperature in accelerating the carburization and creep rates could not be ruled out. This can occur to compensate for the insulating effect of coke deposited at the inner surface.

Flare minimization for an olefin plant shutdown via plant-wide dynamic simulation

During shutdown operations of chemical plants, significant amounts of raw materials, intermediates, and products may be flared leading to economic losses and emissions such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds. Thus, flare minimization during plant shutdown is a desirable goal towards economic benefit and environmental sustainability. In this paper, a systematic flare minimization methodology for an olefin plant shutdown operation has been developed. It includes three iterative stages: (i) steady-state modeling and validation to build the foundation of the dynamic modeling; (ii) dynamic modeling and validation to enable plant-wide simulations under designated plant control strategies; and (iii) plant shutdown simulation and optimization to iteratively examine, validate, quantify various flare minimization opportunities so as to identify the improved shutdown strategy. Particularly, dynamic performances of the critical equipment (e.g., the cracked gas compressor) has been thoroughly investigated to ensure the operating safety associated with the developed new shutdown strategy. Compared with the conventional plant shutdown strategy, the case study has shown that the new development can significantly reduce flared raw materials and emissions by 90.23%, which result in estimated economic savings by 91.03% and the social cost of carbon saving by 90.37%.

German plant closure and the China shock

ABSTRACT This paper explores administrative plant data from Germany to study the role of import competition for plant closure. The data used in this study allow inferring a precise measure of plant closure by assessing co-worker movements across plants and time. Chinese imports can be associated with a higher propensity of the plant closure. We present a comparison between results based on a more common plant exit variable with regression outcomes that fit the model to the more precise plant closure information. The sign of the effect is independent of the choice of the outcome variable but the magnitude of the effect changes considerably. Moreover, we find that the effect is non-linear as newly established plants are better prepared for the import shock compared to older establishments.

Engaging Religion in a Contested Age: Contestations, Postmodernity, and Social Change

AbstractBoth secular and religious contestations have threatened the character of contemporary civic discourse, signifying underlying issues needing to be addressed. Postmodern and globalization influences have contributed to their scope and intensity, adding underlying complexities to the presenting issues. Drawing upon case examples of a secular plant closure in a racially and ethnically diverse company town and strife threatening organizational viability in the cross-cultural Anglican Communion, I argue first that religion either directly influences or indirectly serves as a latent resource within secularized morality, and second that cross-cultural contestations involving religion typically contain underlying societal concerns; both need to be addressed in analyzing meaning and hope for change. Sociologists of religion have opportunity to explore how religion is deployed as a moral basis of contestation, and how it might interact with postcolonial and other cultural dynamics, with implications for solutions in building social cohesion across worldviews and cultures.

ЗАГРЯЗНЕНИЕ ТЯЖЕЛЫМИ МЕТАЛЛАМИ РЕЧНОЙ ВОДЫ И ПРИБРЕЖНОЙ ПОЧВЫ, БЛИЗЛЕЖАЩИХ К ТЕРРИТОРИИ ХВОСТОХРАНИЛИЩА

Introduction. The operation of the Teghut copper-molybdenum enterprise resulted in the man-made load on the environments in terms of concentrations of some heavy metals (autumn 2016), the migration of which continued even after the plant shutdown (autumn 2018). Methods. The authors studied changes in the concentrations of Mo, Zn, and Cu in samples of Shnogh River water and coastal soils near the tailing storage facility territory. Results. During enterprise operation, in water sampling points 1 and 2, a decrease in the concentrations of these heavy metals after the plant shutdown was noted. According to the analysis of coastal soil samples, in points 1 and 2, after the plant shutdown, the Zn concentration decreased by 75% and the Cu concentration decreased by 84% compared with the analysis of samples during enterprise operation. In samples of coastal soils from sampling points 3 and 4, a concentration reverse was observed. Conclusion. The calculation of the geo-accumulation coefficient for the studied heavy metals in soil sampling points 1 and 2 compared to sampling points 3 and 4 indicates a decrease in the man-made load on the environment, caused by plant operation.

Detecting and Characterizing Multiple Oscillations in Process Control Loop Based on PSO-NCMD

Oscillations are a common abnormal phenomenon in the process control system. They can degrade control performance or even cause plant shutdown. It is crucial to accurately detect and characterize the process oscillations. In this article, a novel oscillation detector is proposed by combining the particle swarm optimization (PSO) and nonlinear chirp mode decomposition (NCMD). Because the performance of NCMD relies on the selection of mode number Q and bandwidth parameter α, PSO is utilized to search the optimal parameter pairs. Then, the multiple oscillations contained in the process variables (PV) can be extracted by NCMD with the optimal parameters. The normalized correlation index and sparseness index are used to discarding the spurious modes and quantifying the degree of oscillations, respectively. After detecting, by utilizing the time-frequency information provided by the oscillating modes, multiple oscillation types can be accurately characterized. Comparisons are provided to show the advantages of the proposed method. The effectiveness and utility are validated by simulations as well as various industrial cases.

Death of Coal and Breath of Life: The Effect of Power Plant Closure on Local Air Quality

The number of U.S. coal-red power plants declined by nearly 250 between 2001 and 2018. Given that burning coal generates large amounts of particulate matter is known to have adverse health effects, closure of coal-red power plants should improve local air quality. Using spatial panel data from air quality monitor stations and coal-red power plants, we estimate the relationship between plant closure and local air quality. We find that on average, the levels of particulate matter within 25 and 50 mile buffers around air quality monitors declined between 7 and 14 percent with each closure. We estimate that the event of closure is associated with a 0.6 percent decline in local mortality probabilities. On a value of statistical life basis, the median local benefit of coal power plant closure ranged between $1 and $4 billion or 5 to 15 percent of local GDP since the early 2000s.

Has COVID-19 Impacted Price-Weight Relationships and Value of Gain?

In the beginning of COVID-19, much of the attention was focused on managing the redirection of meat product from food service to retail stores. This past month has keenly focused on packing plant closures due to COVID-19 cases among workers and how to manage the supply of fat cattle already ready for slaughter. Fat cattle available for slaughter either cannot get bids or bids are significantly below breakeven prices leaving feedlots with decisions to be made about marketing and placements. The April 2020 Cattle on Feed report (https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/m326m174z) revealed March placement decisions. Placements were down about 10% from February 2020 and 25% from March 2019. This was partially due to depressed nearby and deferred future bids, although the nearby bids appear to be discounted greater, suggesting that the market — at least right now — believes demand for product will recover in the second half of the year. Marketings as a response to plant closures will come in the June 2020 Cattle on Feed report.

Definition of Key Indicators to Identify Optimal Distribution Grid Restoration Strategies

Due to significant changes in the power energy system and extreme weather conditions as a result of the increasing impact of climate change, large scale blackouts become more likely. With the rising penetration of renewable energy sources in distribution grids and the shutdown of large conventional power plants, the system inertia and therefore the resilience is decreasing. This will have a significant influence on the provision of ancillary services in the future. Especially for grid restoration processes, new concepts are necessary to assure an optimal integration of the distributed energy resources to resupply a grid after a blackout. However, to identify and assess the capability of distribution grids to restore the grid operation to resupply their grid independently of the transmission system key indicators are necessary for an analysis. Hence, this paper introduces a key indicator system, which has the goal to address several challenges of a distribution grid restoration.

РОЛЬ ПЛАТЫ ЗА ВЫБРОСЫ ЗАГРЯЗНЯЮЩИХ ВЕЩЕСТВ ОТ СЖИГАНИЯ ПОПУТНОГО НЕФТЯНОГО ГАЗА КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТА РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ РАЦИОНАЛЬНОГО ПРИРОДОПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ В НЕФТЕДОБЫВАЮЩИХ СУБЪЕКТАХ РФ

For a long time, Russia was the leader in associated petroleum gas (APG) flaring. This led to the destruction of useful raw materials and environmental pollution. Due to the tightening of the state policy in the field of the APG rational use and the introduction of fees for APG flaring in 2012, oil producing companies had an incentive to use APG efficiently. In addition, the level of air pollution began to decline. The budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the oil-producing regions began to receive significant revenues. Some experts expected that the APG efficiency target would be achieved in 2014 or 2016. Unfortunately, some oil producers were unable to achieve the target. Moreover, at present, there is a reduction in payments for APG flaring in many regions. This causes concern for certain market participants. The object of this research is the impact of APG flaring fees on the level of rational APG use and on incomes of the oil-producing regions. The aim of the work is to study the role of these payments as a tool for regulating the rational use of APG. The analysis shows that the introduction of fees for emissions of pollutants generated by APG flaring plays an important role in ensuring the sustainable development of the regions. Firstly, this fee helps to improve the environmental situation in the region because the volume of gas flared has decreased significantly. Secondly, the application of fees for APG flaring contributes to an increase in the level of energy efficiency, the development and implementation of innovative technologies. Thirdly, the increase in APG deep processing makes it possible to obtain products required in the domestic industry. This improves the efficiency of the oil sector and accelerates import substitution. Fourthly, payments for emissions of pollutants generated during APG flaring form additional funds that can be spent on the development of the region. Fifthly, all oil-producing regions can be divided into two groups. The first group is a group that has practically reached or is very close to reaching the established limits for APG flaring. The second group of regions is a group for which reaching this target is still a difficult task. Experts point out the following reasons that prevent some oil-producing companies from achieving targets for APG flaring: (1) commissioning of new fields, which are characterized by an insufficient level of infrastructure development required for APG utilization; (2) closure of gas processing plants for repair work, which forces some companies to temporarily flare APG; (3) establishment of new benefits and exemptions; (4) geographic fragmentation of fields and limited reserves, which does not allow making the project for the rational use of APG profitable; (5) remoteness of some gas pipelines from the main oil-producing regions, difficult access to the gas transportation system.

Dual Adaptive Model Predictive Controller Application to Vertical Roller Mill Process Used in the Cement Industry

Diversified operating conditions, input-output constraints, and parametric variations in the Vertical Roller Mill (VRM) make it to have complicated dynamics and closed-loop instability. Existing traditional controllers are not superlative and may lead to an uneven plant shutdown. Model predictive controller with adaptive models can track these parametric variations and ensure the plant’s smooth running, which has been addressed in this paper. Data from the real-time VRM is acquired, and correlation analysis is carried out, which illustrates the use of outlet temperature and differential pressure as the output variables with tensile pressure and booster fan speed as the input variables. The base model for VRM is identified using the selected variables by data-driven system identification methods. The fourth-order state-space model was found to be optimal in capturing the dynamic behavior of VRM. Dual Adaptive Model Predictive Controller (DAMPC) is designed to handle each output variable individually. The use of DAMPC minimizes the complexity involved in the on-line parametric estimation for higher-order models by distributing the control authority to different controllers. The performance of the proposed DAMPC is compared with the existing Proportional Integral (PI) controller and Model Predictive Controller (MPC). Simulation experiments for reference tracking and rejection of slowly varying internal disturbances by considering parametric variations are carried out. Results illustrate DAMPC provides lesser overshoot and faster settling time amidst parametric variations.