Mitigating the Adverse Consequences of Pandemics: A Short Note with a Special Reference to COVID-19

Abstract

COVID-19 is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 is reported to have a higher transmissibility than SARS. One reason contributing to its rapid spread is that “many more patients with COVID-19 rather than SARS have mild symptoms,” and as a result miss timely treatment and self-isolation advice (Wilder-Smith et al 2020). Another reason is the lack of “surge capacity” and inefficient “emergency response systems” of countries to cope with the sudden, rapid rise in infected cases. Surge capacity, in general terms, is a healthcare system’s ability to mobilize health resources to meet increased demand in the event of large-scale disasters or public health emergencies. The recent outbreak has exposed the fact that most countries lacked dedicated facilities for conducting lab tests in isolated sites, enough hospital space, cohort ICUs for COVID-19 patients, triage areas for suspected COVID-19 patients, intensive-care beds, appropriately trained workforce, protective masks, modern ventilators and other essential medical supplies. Virus containment measures involving business shutdowns, plant closures, restaurant closures, and workplace closures are likely to cause severe economic losses to many economies for a prolonged period through multiple channels: viz., through demand and supply shocks. These containment measures are likely to hit hard the world’s leading economies and disrupt the global supply chain. The most hard hit countries, including G-7 countries, China and South Korea, account for about 55% of the world’s GDP, about 60% of global manufacturing, and 50% of global manufacturing exports (Baldwin et al 2020). Economic disruptions in these economies heighten the chances of triggering a global economic crisis. Limiting the economic fallout of the coronavirus at both individual country and global levels needs some priorities and swift actions. The first priority is to boost the capacity of countries’ health systems with a focus on reducing mortality and transmission. Another immediate priority action for countries is to adopt large, deficit-financed public investment on a continuing basis (Krugman 2020). Economists have pressed for a decisive and coordinated program of fiscal stimulus among G-20 nations. Another social concern from COVID-19 is the looming danger of an unprecedented scale of human suffering, particularly of the economically weaker and vulnerable section of people in every society, and people in war-torn countries with lack of access to daily living essentials. Finally, to prevent future occurrences of pandemics, internationally collaborative research is needed to understand the “zoonotic” roots of viruses.