Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Research Articles

Simulation of the Neutral Atmospheric Flow Using Multiscale Modeling: Comparative Studies for SimpleFoam and Fluent Solver

The reproduced planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind is commonly applied in downscaled simulations using commercial CFD codes with Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling. When using the turbulent inlets calculated by numerical weather prediction models (NWP), adjustments of the turbulence eddy viscosity closures and wall function formulations are concerned with maintaining the fully developed wind profiles specified at the inlet of CFD domains. The impact of these related configurations is worth discussing in engineering applications, especially when commercial codes restrict the internal modifications. This study evaluates the numerical performances of open-source OpenFOAM 2.3.0 and commercial Fluent 17.2 codes as supplementary scientific comparisons. This contribution focuses on the modified turbulence closures to incorporate turbulent profiles produced from mesoscale PBL parameterizations and the modified wall treatments relating to the roughness length. The near-ground flow features are evaluated by selecting the flat terrains and the classical Askervein benchmark case. The improvement in near-ground wind flow under the downscaled framework shows satisfactory performance in the open-source CFD platform. This contributes to engineers realizing the micro-siting of wind turbines and quantifying terrain-induced speed-up phenomena under the scope of wind-resistant design.

Model sensitivity in predicting extreme precipitation events in urban areas: A case study over Beijing

Understanding and forecasting the spatial and temporal distributions of extreme precipitation over urban areas is crucial for effective planning and mitigation efforts. However, this task remains challenging as accurate forecasting depends on properly representing urban surfacees and their interactions with the planetary boundary layer (PBL). We examined the hindcast of an extreme precipitation event over Beijing on 21–22 July 2012. The primary focus was assessing its sensitivity to two widely used PBL parameterizations (MYJ and YSU), two urban parameterizations (SLUCM and BEP_BEM), and two different land-use and land-cover (LULC) datasets.Sensitivity experiments were initialized at different times to explore the model dependence on initial conditions. The analyses were conducted over three selected regions: the entire model domain covering the Beijing metropolitan area, an upwind region of Beijing, and the entire urban area of Beijing. The results show that the MYJ PBL scheme performs better than the YSU PBL scheme in capturing near-surface air temperature as well as the location and timing of the heaviest precipitation. The variability in simulated precipitation among the chosen PBL schemes is lower compared to that among different time of initializations. The LULC impacted the spatial distribution of precipitation but its effect on the amount of precipitation was minimal. Overall, using a combination of the MYJ PBL scheme, SLUCM urban parameterization, and locally-enhanced Beijing LULC, and initializing the model simulations at 0000 UTC July 20, 2012, demonstrated superior performance in capturing precipitation levels, despite some spatial discrepancies in the precipitation distribution. The performance of BEP_BEM urban parameterization is similar to SLUCM across various factors such as average rain rate, maximum rain rate, and rain volume. These findings offer valuable insights towards better simulations of extreme precipitation and flooding in rapidly urbanizing areas such as Beijing.

Comprehensive Comparison of Seven Widely-Used Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Typhoon Mangkhut Intensification Simulation

Numerical experiments using the WRF model were conducted to analyze the sensitivity of Typhoon Mangkhut intensification simulations to seven widely used planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes, including YSU, MYJ, QNSE, MYNN2, MYNN3, ACM2, and BouLac. The results showed that all simulations generally reproduced the tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity, with YSU, QNSE, and BouLac schemes better capturing intensification processes and closely matching observed TC intensity. In terms of surface layer parameterization, the QNSE scheme produced the highest Ck/Cd ratio, resulting in stronger TC intensity based on Emanuel’s potential intensity theory. In terms of PBL parameterization, the YSU and BouLac schemes, with the same revised MM5 surface layer scheme, simulated weaker turbulent diffusivity Km and shallower mixing height, leading to stronger TC intensity. During the intensification period, the BouLac, YSU, and QNSE PBL schemes exhibited stronger tangential wind, radial inflow within the boundary layer, and updraft around the eye wall, consistent with TC intensity results. Both PBL and surface layer parameterization significantly influenced simulated TC intensity. The QNSE scheme, with the largest Ck/Cd ratio, and the YSU and BouLac schemes, with weaker turbulent diffusivity, generated stronger radial inflow, updraft, and warm core structures, contributing to higher storm intensity.

Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulations of the Split, Croatia, Wildfire

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting Spread FIRE (WRF-SFIRE) model was used to simulate the evolution of the fire perimeter for the Split wildfire in Croatia, evaluated in our previous detailed reconstruction of the event. A four-domain configuration was applied, with the innermost domain having a resolution of 500 m with a planetary boundary layer parameterization. The coupled fire grid was further downscaled to 33.3-m resolution, using the best available estimates of topography and fuel load data. WRF-SFIRE simulated slightly smaller fire areas in the four observed fire perimeter stages of the Split wildfire event, especially the northwestward spread in the last stage along the Adriatic coast. Additional experiments with multiple ignitions in the WRF-SFIRE model, representing the spotting mechanism, successfully simulated the northwestward spread in the event. The study also included sensitivity experiments that turned off the heat and moisture flux coupling between WRF and the fire grid. It was found that the simulated fire area is larger than the model run that included heat and moisture feedback from the fire grid to the atmosphere, which is contrary to some previous studies. The large wind speed and convergence along the fire line in our feedback-on simulation, which constrain the fire when there are feedback processes, were likely the cause of the smaller fire area. Last, areas of pine that burnt in the Split fire event favored crown fire spread, which is not represented in the current modeling framework of WRF-SFIRE.

Surface Currents and Relative-Wind Stress in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Simulations of the Northern California Current System

Abstract The dependence of surface-current damping on the definition of surface current for the relative wind is examined in coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical simulations of the northern California Current System (nCCS) during March–October 2009. The model response is analyzed for wind stress computed from relative wind for six different choices of effective model surface velocity. Simulations without surface-current coupling are also considered. As a function of the geographically varying uppermost grid-level depth, the model uppermost grid-level velocity is found to have a wind-drift component with a log-layer structure. Mean geostrophic wind work is concentrated in the shelf and slope regions during March–May (MAM) and in the deep offshore region in June–September (JJAS). The surface-current damping effect on ocean kinetic energy depends more strongly on the parameterization of atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence than on the surface-current coupling formulation: weaker PBL mixing gives stronger surface-current damping. The damping effect is stronger in the less energetic offshore region than in the more energetic region closer to the coast. During MAM, the changes in kinetic energy and geostrophic wind work in the shelf and slope regions are spatially correlated, while during JJAS, the changes in geostrophic wind work are strongly modulated by SST–stress coupling. The wind-drift-corrected surface-current formulations result in large changes in the effective wind work based on the product of stress and relative-wind surface current but result in only small changes in the kinetic energy of the circulation. Significance Statement Ocean currents and atmospheric winds are coupled by the exchange of momentum across the air–sea interface, the strength of which depends on the relative wind, the difference between the surface wind and surface current. The purpose of this work was to examine the dependence of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model of the northern California Current System (nCCS) on the representations of the relative-wind surface current and turbulent mixing in the lower atmosphere. The model surface current was found to have a shallow wind-drift response. The model ocean circulation was driven primarily by near-coast winds during the spring and by offshore winds during the summer. The ocean response depended more strongly on the atmospheric turbulent mixing than on the surface current representation.

Simulation of a cold spell in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with WRF: Sensitivity to PBL schemes

The selection of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation schemes is crucial for the simulation of local meteorology, especially under extreme weather events. A suitable PBL scheme is one of the key conditions to accurately reproduce the real weather conditions. In this study, the performance of all the three available PBL schemes that can be coupled with the multi-layer urban canopy model in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model: Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and Bougeault-Lacarrere (BL), is evaluated for a cold spell event with Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as the study region. It is found that accurate prediction of the strength of the vertical mixing and the change in wind speeds over the upper atmosphere is critical for reproducing the nighttime temperatures during the cold spell. The simulations of the BL scheme are consistent with observations that wind speeds do not vary much during daytime and nighttime, thus exhibiting strong vertical mixing and slowing down the near-surface temperature decrease during nighttime. The MYJ and YSU schemes cause significant underestimation of the nighttime 2-m temperature due to significant overestimation of the nighttime upper-air wind speeds, which leads to more heat transport through horizontal advection and hinders vertical mixing and convective activities. The results confirm that selection of a suitable PBL scheme can effectively reduce the uncertainty of the simulation results, and the coupling of the BL scheme with the multi-layer urban canopy model can better simulate the cold spell events occurring in the GBA, which also provides valuable references for the simulation of other similar coastal cities.

Rainfall Sensitivity to Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Convection-Permitting Simulations over Northwestern South America

Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions. However, microphysics parameterization (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes remain an important source of uncertainty, affecting rainfall intensity, occurrence, duration, and propagation. Here, we study the sensitivity of rainfall to three MP [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Thompson, and Morrison] and two PBL [the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino (MYNN)] schemes with a convection-permitting resolution (4 km) over northwestern South America (NWSA). Simulations were performed by using the WRF model and the results were evaluated against soundings, rain gauges, and satellite data, considering the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over diverse regions prone to deep convection in NWSA. MP and PBL schemes largely influenced simulated rainfall, with better results for the less computationally expensive WSM6 MP and YSU PBL schemes. Regarding rain gauges and satellite estimates, simulations with Morrison MP overestimated rainfall, especially westward of the Andes, whereas the MYNN PBL underestimated precipitation in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands. We found that the uncertainty in the rainfall representation is highly dependent on the region, with a higher influence of MP in the Colombian Pacific and PBL in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands. When analyzing rainfall-related processes, the selection of both MP and PBL parameterizations exerted a large influence on the simulated lower tropospheric moisture flux and moisture convergence. PBL schemes significantly influenced the downward shortwave radiation, with MYNN simulating a greater amount of low clouds, which decreased the radiation income. Furthermore, latent heat fluxes were greater for YSU, favoring moist convection and rainfall. MP schemes had a marked impact on vertical velocity. Specifically, Morrison MP showed stronger convection and higher precipitation rates, which is associated with a greater latent heat release due to solid-phase hydrometeor formation. This study provides insights into assessing physical parameterizations in numerical models and suggests key processes for rainfall representation in NWSA.

An Improved Non‐Local Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Scheme in Weather Forecasting and Research Model Based on a 1.5‐Order Turbulence Closure Model

AbstractPlanetary boundary layer (PBL) modeling is a primary contributor to uncertainties in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model due to difficulties in modeling the turbulent transport of surface fluxes. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has provided many PBL schemes that may feature a non‐local transport component driven by large eddies or a one‐and‐half order turbulence closure model, but few of them possess the two features at once. In the present study, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)‐based eddy diffusivity/viscosity method is integrated into the non‐local Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) PBL scheme and implemented in WRF. The original first‐order eddy‐diffusivity term in ACM2 is discarded and an extra prognostic equation for TKE, which considers the tendency of TKE by buoyancy, wind shear, vertical transport, and dissipative processes, is supplied to calculate the diffusivity/viscosity. Non‐local transport is modeled the same as ACM2 using the transilient matrix method. Idealized tests using prescribed surface heat flux and roughness length are performed. TKE‐ACM2 displays advantages over the PBL scheme developed by Bougeault and Lacarrère (hereinafter referred to as Boulac) and ACM2 in the wind speeds (WS) profile because it better matches large‐eddy simulations results in the surface momentum flux. Real case simulations show that TKE‐ACM2 generally outperforms in the diurnal vertical profiles of WS under stable conditions. TKE‐ACM2 also produces a better alignment under moderately unstable conditions in the early nighttime at the urban LiDAR station. However, the model exhibits discrepancies more apparently under a more unstable condition during the winter daytime.

Improving Diurnal Precipitation Forecasts Through Coherent Coupling of Cumulus and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations

AbstractThis study explores the impact of coupling cumulus and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations on diurnal precipitation forecasting during the plum rainy season in Jiangsu Province, China, using a double grid‐nesting approach. Results show that coherent coupling of cumulus (only in the 15 km grid outer domain [O]) and PBL parameterizations leads to improved forecasting of diurnal variations in the morning, afternoon, and the evening. Increasing the frequency of the Kain‐Fritsch (KF) cumulus scheme in [O] enhances subgrid precipitation while reducing grid‐scale precipitation, resulting in a more accurate representation of daytime convective activities and a reduction in over‐forecasting of evening valley and early‐morning precipitation. Additionally, coupling a suitable PBL scheme mitigates the overpredicted afternoon peak by facilitating turbulent mixing to penetrate higher altitudes with a thicker layer, thereby reducing instability energy accumulation. A higher KF frequency in [O] retains less low tropospheric moisture, reducing moisture convergence into the 1 km grid inner domain [I] and decreasing overpredicted daytime precipitation in [I]. Various PBL schemes produce distinct vertical distributions of turbulent moisture and heat transport, impacting convection and precipitation in [I] resolved by cloud microphysics processes. The coherent coupling of these parameterizations maintains a balanced supply of convective energy and water vapor, significantly improving diurnal precipitation forecasts in [I]. Isolating these parameterizations between nested grids may undermine this improvement.

Study of boundary layer parameterization simulation uncertainties of sand-dust storm windfield using high-resolution three-dimensional Doppler wind lidar data

The processes of dust emission, the development, and dissipation of sand and dust storms all exhibit dynamic and rapidly changing characteristics, posing significant challenges for us to accurately represent their complex behaviors in numerical simulations. In the numerical weather prediction model, the selection and optimization of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes have a direct impact on the simulation results of PBL wind fields, primarily due to the significant uncertainty in the fine-grained simulation of PBL wind field structure. To gain a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in simulating sand-dust storms through vertical wind field structure simulations of the PBL, this study utilizes high-resolution 3D Doppler wind lidar (DWL) data. Focusing on sand-dust storm wind fields with distinctive regional characteristics in Inner Mongolia, China, it examines the turbulent momentum equation and assumptions of the PBL. A comprehensive and systematic evaluation was conducted on the characteristics of horizontal and vertical wind fields, wind shear, as well as the dynamic and thermodynamic differences that arise when simulating typical sand-dust storm wind fields using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with various PBL schemes. This evaluation focused on simulating the typical wind field of sand-dust storms during various stages, including dust generation, occurrence, development, and dissipation. The findings indicate that non-adiabatic heating plays a significant role in the sustainability and evolution of sand-dust storms. The wind shear index holds particular importance as it embodies the dynamic factor in the model. The PBL schemes such as Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2), A new version of asymmetric convective model (ACM2), and Grenier-Bretherton-McCaa (GBM), which factor in buoyancy effects, demonstrate more accurate wind shear simulations in sand-dust storms. Furthermore, the ACM2 scheme effectively replicates the fundamental variation characteristics of meteorological elements throughout the sand-dust storm lifecycle.

Forecasting High Wind Events in the HRRR Model over Wyoming and Colorado. Part II: Sensitivity of Surface Wind Speeds to Model Resolution and Physics

Abstract Strong wind events can cause severe economic loss and societal impacts. Peak winds over Wyoming and Colorado occur during the wintertime months, and in the first part of this two-part series, it was shown that the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model displays large negative biases with respect to strong wind events. In this part of the study, we address two questions: 1) does increasing the horizontal resolution improve the representation of strong wind events over this region, and 2) are the biases in HRRR-forecasted winds related to the selected planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and/or land surface model (LSM) parameterizations? We conduct Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations to address these two main questions. Increasing the horizontal resolution leads to a small improvement in the simulation of strong wind speeds over the complex terrain of Wyoming and Colorado. In general, changes in the PBL, SL, and LSM parameterizations show much larger changes in simulated wind speeds compared to increasing the model resolution alone. Specifically, changing from the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino scheme to the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić PBL and SL schemes results in nearly no change in the r2 values, but there is a decrease in the magnitude of the strong wind speed bias (from −12.52 to −10.16 m s−1). We attribute these differences to differences in the diagnosis of surface wind speeds and mixing in the boundary layer. Further analysis is conducted to determine the value of 1-km forecasts of strong winds compared with wind speed diagnostics commonly used by the National Weather Service. Significance Statement Motivated by prior studies showing low skill in the prediction of strong winds using state-of-the-art weather forecast models, in this study, we aim to investigate two questions: 1) does increasing the horizontal resolution improve the prediction of strong wind events over the complex terrain of Wyoming and Colorado, and 2) are the biases in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecasted winds related to the selected planetary boundary layer, surface layer, and/or land surface model parameterizations? We find that increasing the horizontal resolution provides a slight improvement in the prediction of strong winds. Further, considerable improvement in the prediction of strong winds is found for varying boundary layer, surface layer, and land surface parameterizations.

Optimization and Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for Wind Energy Resource Assessment and Mapping in Iran

This study aims to optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model regarding the choice of the best planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical scheme and to evaluate the model’s performance for wind energy assessment and mapping over the Iranian territory. In this initiative, five PBL and surface layer parameterization schemes were tested, and their performance was evaluated via comparison with observational wind data. The study used two-way nesting domains with spatial resolutions of 15 km and 5 km to represent atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the study area. Additionally, a seventeen-year simulation (2004–2020) was conducted, producing wind datasets for the entire Iranian territory. The accuracy of the WRF model was assessed by comparing its results with observations from multiple sites and with the high-resolution Global Wind Atlas. Statistical parameters and wind power density were calculated from the simulated data and compared with observations to evaluate wind energy potential at specific sites. The model’s performance was sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the terrain data, with weaker simulations for wind speeds below 3 m/s and above 10 m/s. The results confirm that the WRF model provides reliable wind speed data for realistic wind energy assessment studies in Iran. The model-generated wind resource map identifies areas with high wind (wind speed > 5.6 m/s) potential that are currently without wind farms or Aeolic parks for exploitation of the wind energy potential. The Sistan Basin in eastern Iran was identified as the area with the highest wind power density, while areas west of the Zagros Mountains and in southwest Iran showed high aeolian potential during summer. A novelty of this research is the application of the WRF model in an area characterized by high topographical complexities and specific geographical features. The results provide practical solutions and valuable insights for industry stakeholders, facilitating informed decision making, reducing uncertainties, and promoting the effective utilization of wind energy resources in the region.

Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Mean Climate Simulation over West Africa to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Using RegCM5 Regional Climate Model

This study evaluates the performance of two planetary boundary parameterizations in simulating the mean climate of West Africa using the Regional Climate Model version 5 (RegCM5). These planetary boundary parameterizations are the Holtslag scheme and the University of Washington scheme. Two sets of three one-year simulations were carried out at 25 km horizontal resolution with three different initial conditions. The first set of simulations used the Holtslag scheme (hereafter referred to as Hol), while the second used the University of Washington (UW) scheme (hereafter referred to as UW). The results displayed in this study are an average of the three simulations. During the JJAS rainy season, with respect to GPCP, both models overestimated total rainfall in the orographic regions. The UW experiment represented total rainfall fairly well compared to its counterpart, Hol. Both models reproduced convective rainfall well, with a relatively weak dry bias over the Guinean coast subregion. Globally, UW performed better than Hol in simulating precipitation. The pattern of near-surface temperature in both models was well reproduced with a higher bias with Hol than with UW. Indeed, the UW scheme led to a cooling effect owing to the reduction in eddy heat diffusivity in the lower troposphere contributing to reduce the bias. As a consequence, the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was best simulated using the UW scheme but was underestimated compared to ERA5, while using the Hol scheme failed to capture the height of the PBL. This is coherent with the distribution of total cloud cover, which was better simulated with the UW scheme compared to the Hol scheme. This study shows that use of both planetary boundary parameterizations leads to a good simulation of most of the climatological characteristics of the West African region. Nevertheless, use of the UW scheme contributes to a better performance than use of the Hol scheme, and the differentiation between the two schemes is significant along the Guinea Coast and in orographic regions. In these topographically complex regions, UW appears to be more appropriate than Hol. This study emphasizes the importance of planetary boundary parameterizations for accurately simulating climate variables and for improving climate forecasts and projections in West Africa.

Using EUREC4A/ATOMIC field campaign data to improve trade wind regimes in the Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract. Improving the prediction of clouds in shallow-cumulus regimes via turbulence parameterization in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) will likely increase the global skill of global climate models (GCMs) because this cloud regime is common over tropical oceans where low-cloud fraction has a large impact on Earth's radiative budget. This study attempts to improve the prediction of PBL structure in tropical trade wind regimes in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) by updating its formulation of momentum flux in CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals), which currently does not by default allow for upgradient momentum fluxes. Hindcast CAM output from custom CLUBB configurations which permit countergradient momentum fluxes are compared to in situ observations from weather balloons collected during the ElUcidating the RolE of Cloud–Circulation Coupling in ClimAte and Atlantic Tradewind Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (EUREC4A/ATOMIC) field campaign in the tropical Atlantic in early 2020. Comparing a version with CAM–CLUBB with a prognostic treatment of momentum fluxes results in vertical profiles that better match large-eddy simulation results. Countergradient fluxes are frequently simulated between 950 and 850 hPa over the EUREC4A/ATOMIC period in CAM–CLUBB. Further modification to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization by implementing a more generalized calculation of the turbulent length scale reduces model bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) relative to sounding data when coupled with the prognostic momentum configuration. Benefits are also seen in the diurnal cycle, although more systematic model errors persist. A cursory budget analysis suggests the buoyant production of momentum fluxes, both above and below the jet maximum, significantly contributes to the frequency and depth of countergradient vertical momentum fluxes in the study region. This paper provides evidence that higher-order turbulence parameterizations may offer pathways for improving the simulation of trade wind regimes in global models, particularly when evaluated in a process study framework.

The vortex structure and near‐surface winds of Typhoon Faxai (2019) during landfall. Part II: Evaluation of WRF simulations

AbstractThis two‐part study presents a comprehensive analysis of (1) the vortex structure, (2) the inner core planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind profile, and (3) the overland surface winds of Typhoon Faxai(2019) during landfall observationally (Part I) and in high‐resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations (Part II). Part II presents a framework for evaluating the wind field in the WRF simulations of Typhoon Faxai (2019) by comparing them with the observations presented in Part I. First, WRF simulations with two different surface roughness tables are presented. The simulation with the default table in WRF is shown to largely overestimate the surface wind speed. The overestimation is largely mitigated by using larger based on the climatology for urban and forest areas in Japan. Next, using the modified table, WRF simulations with three different PBL parametrizations, namely, Mellor–Yamada–Janjić, Yonsei University, and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino schemes are presented, and their impacts on the simulated vortex structure, inner core PBL wind profile, and overland surface winds are evaluated. In particular, the simulated surface winds are in good agreement with the observations outside the inner core of Typhoon Faxai. However, during the passage of the eyewall, the maximum surface winds are underestimated in the simulations. We show that the underestimation of the inertial stability, associated with the excessively large inner core of Typhoon Faxai in the simulations, led to the overestimation of the eyewall PBL jet height. This, in turn, caused the underestimation of the peak surface winds, as based on the empirical model of the wind reduction factor proposed in Part I.

Identifying Meteorological Drivers for Errors in Modeled Winds along the Northern California Coast

Abstract An accurate wind resource dataset is required for assessing the potential energy yield of floating offshore wind farms that are expected along the California outer continental shelf. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed and disseminated an updated wind resource dataset offshore of California, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, referred to as the CA20 dataset. As compared to buoy lidar measurements that have become available recently, the CA20 dataset showed significant positive biases for 100-m wind speeds along Northern California wind energy lease areas. To investigate the meteorological drivers for the model errors, we first consider two 1-yr simulations run with two different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations: the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme (the chosen configuration in the CA20 dataset) and the Yonsei University PBL scheme (which significantly reduces the bias in modeled winds). By comparing the 1-yr simulations to the concurrent lidar buoy observations, we find that errors are larger with the MYNN PBL scheme in warm seasons. We then dive deeper into the analysis by running simulations for short-term (3-day) case studies to evaluate the sensitivity of initial/boundary condition forcings on model results. By analyzing the short-term simulations, we find that during synoptic-scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific high and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN simulation is mainly responsible for the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics. The results of our analysis will help guide the creation of an updated version of the CA20 dataset.

Combining effects of cloud microphysical and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes on the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity

The numerical simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) can be affected by the choices in physics parameterization schemes. These effects can be from the single scheme or the combination of multiple ones due to closely linked physical processes. Previous studies have discussed the roles of different schemes in TC simulation, but the roles of scheme combinations still remain to be explored. To investigate the combining effects of cloud microphysical (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes on the prediction of TC intensity, two Single-Moment MP schemes, WRF 6-class (WSM6) and Goddard 4ice, and two PBL schemes, non-local closure Yonsei University (YSU) and local closure Quasi-normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), were selected for the cloud-resolving simulations of both real and idealized cases using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Results showed that the experiments combining the PBL scheme with different MP schemes had different performances in reproducing TC intensity. The local QNSE PBL scheme, compared with non-local YSU, simulated larger surface sensible, latent, and moisture fluxes, while not necessarily leading to a stronger TC. When used in conjunction with the Goddard MP scheme, the QNSE scheme can simulate a stronger TC than the YSU scheme, but when used with the WSM6 MP scheme, there was little difference in their intensity. Goddard 4ice scheme adding hail class, compared with WSM6, simulated a better-organized eyewall, more latent heat release and convective bursts, leading to the formation of a clear warm core in the upper troposphere and thus contributing to the intensification of TC. Only with the coupling of MP and PBL schemes, did the simulation generate a compact and erect eyewall, which further enhanced TC intensity via stronger convergence airflow and more water vapor supply at the lower layer. Idealized experiments were consistent with those in real cases, demonstrating the TC sensitivity responding to different combinations while the uncertainties remained in the selection of these schemes.

Evaluating the performance of WRF in simulating winds and surface meteorology during a Southern California wildfire event

The intensity and frequency of wildfires in California (CA) have increased in recent years, causing significant damage to human health and property. In October 2007, a number of small fire events, collectively referred to as the Witch Creek Fire or Witch Fire started in Southern CA and intensified under strong Santa Ana winds. As a test of current mesoscale modeling capabilities, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the 2007 wildfire event in terms of meteorological conditions. The main objectives of the present study are to investigate the impact of horizontal grid resolution and planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme on the model simulation of meteorological conditions associated with a Mega fire. We evaluate the predictive capability of the WRF model to simulate key meteorological and fire-weather forecast parameters such as wind, moisture, and temperature. Results of this study suggest that more accurate predictions of temperature and wind speed relevant for better prediction of wildfire spread can be achieved by downscaling regional numerical weather prediction products to 1 km resolution. Furthermore, accurate prediction of near-surface conditions depends on the choice of the planetary boundary layer parameterization. The MYNN parameterization yields more accurate prediction as compared to the YSU parameterization. WRF simulations at 1 km resolution result in better predictions of temperature and wind speed than relative humidity during the 2007 Witch Fire. In summary, the MYNN PBL parameterization scheme with finer grid resolution simulations improves the prediction of near-surface meteorological conditions during a wildfire event.

Sensitivity analysis of different parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate heavy rainfall events over the Mahi River Basin, India

A reliability-based assessment of heavy rainfall events can provide insights for developing appropriate measures and predictions to control flood risk. One of the contemporary challenges is to model heavy rainfall events, which depend on different synoptic conditions and model configurations. In this study, the regional mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to evaluate the applicability of different parameterization schemes for simulating rainfall events over the Mahi River basin between 22 and 26 August 2020 with the maximum rainfall occurring on 23 August 2020. A high-resolution triple-nested (27, 9, and 3 km) WRF model was configured, and data for initial boundary conditions were obtained from NCEP/NCAR FNL with a resolution of 1° × 1° (six-hourly). The model results were evaluated using gridded rainfall of ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. Further to verify the model output, GPM-IMERG was used to compute the skill score (bias, threat score, probability of detection, and accuracy) metrics at 24 hourly and 3 hourly scales. Eight sensitivity tests were conducted to identify the optimal sets of microphysics (WSM6 and Goddard), cumulus (Kain and BMJ), and planetary boundary layer (YSU and ACM2) parameterization schemes for rainfall simulation of the selected events. The Kain-Goddard-YSU and Kain-Goddard-ACM2 parameterization schemes demonstrated the optimal performance for simulating the rainfall event. Relative humidity and reflectivity were used for analyzing moisture and cloud brightness temperature, respectively. The model score revealed that the Kain-Goddard scheme outperformed other schemes in case of heavy precipitation, with a threshold of 60 mm/day over the Mahi basin. The findings of this study showed that the simulation of heavy rainfall events with a set of selected combinations of parameterization schemes can reproduce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with heavy rainfall events over the Mahi basin. Moreover, this information may help to better understand the future forecast trend of precipitation and explore solutions for sustainable water management to support decision-makers and operational water managers.

Parameterizations of Boundary Layer Mass Fluxes in High-Wind Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Simulations

Abstract Development of accurate planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations in high-wind conditions is crucial for improving tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. Given that eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF)-type PBL schemes are designed for nonhurricane boundary layers, this study examines the uncertainty of MF parameterizations in hurricane conditions by performing three-dimensional idealized simulations. Results show that the surface-driven MF plays a dominant role in the nonlocal turbulent fluxes and is comparable to the magnitude of downgradient momentum fluxes in the middle portion of TC boundary layers outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW); in contrast, the stratocumulus-top-driven MF is comparably negligible and exerts a marginal impact on TC simulations. To represent the impact of vertical wind shear on damping rising thermal plumes, a new approach of tapering surface-driven MF based on the surface stability parameter is proposed, aiming to retain the surface-driven MF only in unstable boundary layers. Compared to a traditional approach of MF tapering based on 10-m wind speeds, the new approach is physically more appealing as both shear and buoyancy forcings are considered and the width of the effective zone responds to diurnal variations of surface buoyancy forcing. Compared to the experiments retaining the original MF components, using either approach of MF tapering can lead to a stronger and more compact inner core due to enhanced boundary layer inflow outside the RMW; nevertheless, the radius of gale-force wind and inflow layer depth are only notably reduced using the new approach. Comparison to observations and further discussions on MF parameterizations in high-wind conditions are provided.