Phylogenetic Endemism Research Articles

Modelling Highly Biodiverse Areas in Brazil

Traditional conservation techniques for mapping highly biodiverse areas assume there to be satisfactory knowledge about the geographic distribution of biodiversity. There are, however, large gaps in biological sampling and hence knowledge shortfalls. This problem is even more pronounced in the tropics. Indeed, the use of only a few taxonomic groups or environmental surrogates for modelling biodiversity is not viable in mega-diverse countries, such as Brazil. To overcome these limitations, we developed a comprehensive spatial model that includes phylogenetic information and other several biodiversity dimensions aimed at mapping areas with high relevance for biodiversity conservation. Our model applies a genetic algorithm tool for identifying the smallest possible region within a unique biota that contains the most number of species and phylogenetic diversity, as well as the highest endemicity and phylogenetic endemism. The model successfully pinpoints small highly biodiverse areas alongside regions with knowledge shortfalls where further sampling should be conducted. Our results suggest that conservation strategies should consider several taxonomic groups, the multiple dimensions of biodiversity, and associated sampling uncertainties.

Zoogeographical regions and geospatial patterns of phylogenetic diversity and endemism of New World bats

The analysis of regional scale patterns of diversity allows insights into the processes that have shaped modern biodiversity at the macro‐scale. Previous analyses studying biogeographic regionalisation across different high‐level taxa have shown similar trends at a global scale. However, incorporating phylogenetic methods when comparing biogeographic regionalisation between subgroups facilitates identification of mechanisms leading to the biogeographic distribution of specific taxa. We analysed the spatial trends of phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism of 325 species of New World bats, using updated range maps of the modern distributions. These analyses showed phylogeographic signals that reflect the different evolutionary histories of these families. Zoogeographical zones were detected based on range‐weighted phylogenetic turnover. Values of high phylogenetic diversity and endemism were distributed differently across families, suggesting niche conservatism, but a general latitudinal trend of diversity was evident across taxa. Overall, two main bioregions were shared across New World bat taxa (Nearctic and Neotropical), with two additional subregions (Andean and La Platan). We found strong support for an additional transitional zone in the Pacific coast of South America for Emballonuridae and Molossidae. Differences in regionalisation across families indicate that niche conservatism, in situ diversification and dispersal ability are major drivers for the regionalisation of New World bats, within a dual‐centre of diversification scenario. We also found strong inter‐familial support for an independent Caribbean biogeographic region.

Spatial overlaps between the global protected areas network and terrestrial hotspots of evolutionary diversity

AbstractAimA common approach for prioritizing conservation is to identify concentrations (hotspots) of biodiversity. Such hotspots have traditionally been designated on the basis of species‐level metrics (e.g., species richness, endemism and extinction vulnerability). These approaches do not consider phylogenetics explicitly, although phylogenetic relationships reflect the ecological, evolutionary and biogeographical processes by which biodiversity is generated, distributed and maintained. The aim of this study was to identify hotspots of phylogenetic diversity and compare these with hotspots based on species‐level metrics and with the existing protected areas network.LocationGlobal.Time periodContemporary.Major taxa studiedTerrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds and amphibians) and angiosperms.MethodsWe used comprehensive phylogenies and distribution maps of terrestrial birds, mammals, amphibians and angiosperms to identify areas with high concentrations of phylogenetic diversity, phylogenetic endemism, and evolutionary distinctiveness and global endangerment. We compared the locations of these areas with those included within the current network of protected areas and concentrations of species‐level indices: species richness, species endemism and species threat.ResultsWe found spatial incongruence among the three evolutionary diversity metrics in each taxonomic group. Spatial patterns of diversity and endemism also differed among taxonomic groups, with some differences between vertebrates and angiosperms. Complementarity analyses of phylogenetic diversity identified the minimal area that encapsulates the full branch lengths for each taxonomic group. The current network of protected areas and species‐level hotspots largely does not overlap with areas of high phylodiversity.Main conclusionOverall, < 10% of hotspot areas were designated as protected areas. Patterns of diversity, endemism and vulnerability differ among taxonomic groups.

Contrasting patterns of diversification in a bird family (Aves: Gruiformes: Rallidae) are revealed by analysis of geospatial distribution of species and phylogenetic diversity

Geospatial patterns in the distribution of regional biodiversity reflect the composite processes that underpin evolution: speciation, dispersal and extinction. The spatial distribution and phylogeny of a globally widespread and species rich bird family (Rallidae) were used to help assess the role of large‐scale biogeographical processes in diversity and diversification. Here, we examine how different geostatistical diversity metrics enhance our understanding of species distribution by linking occurrence records of rail species to corresponding species level phylogeny. Tropical regions and temperate zones contained a large proportion of rail species richness and phylogenetic diversity whilst small islands in Australian, Oceanian and Oriental regions held the highest weighted and phylogenetic endemism. Our results suggest that habitat connectivity and dispersal were important ecological features in rail evolution and distribution. Spatial isolation was a significant driver of diversification where islands in Oceania were centres of neo‐endemism with recent multiple and independent speciation events and could be considered as nurseries of biodiversity. Palaeo‐endemism was mostly associated with older stable regions, so despite extensive long distance range shifting these areas retain their own ancient and distinct character. Madagascar was the major area of palaeo‐endemism associated with the oldest rail lineages and could be considered a museum of rail diversity. This implies a mixture of processes determine the current distribution and diversity of rail clades with some areas dominated by recent ‘in situ’ speciation while others harbour old diversity with ecological traits that have stood the test of time.

Choice between phylogram and chronogram can have a dramatic impact on the location of phylogenetic diversity hotspots

AbstractAimBiodiversity is declining rapidly at a global scale, fuelling the need for urgent conservation action. With limited resources available, areas for conservation often need to be prioritized. Phylo‐diversity metrics such as phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic endemism (PE) combine phylogenies and spatial distribution data and can be used to rank candidate areas for conservation. Phylogenetic trees underlying phylo‐diversity metrics are available in two main forms, phylograms and chronograms. We examined the use of these two types of phylogenies in spatial studies and tested whether there is a difference in the resultant hotspot localities when employing either for analysing the same dataset.LocationAustralia and New Zealand.MethodsWe reanalysed three published datasets and one new dataset of geocoded species presence data and DNA sequence data. In all cases, we inferred first a phylogram and then time‐calibrated it to keep tree topology constant. We conducted spatial analyses with equal area grid cells and compared the distribution of PD and PE hotspots (top 5% values) as well as Categorical Analysis of Neo‐ and Palaeo‐Endemism between phylogram and chronogram.ResultsWe found that both types of trees were frequently used in spatial studies but that there is no explicit discussion in the relevant community about either choice. Differences in the locations of hotspots between phylogram and chronogram ranged from 11% to 91%, with no clear correlation between tree shape and effect size.Main conclusionsWe demonstrate for the first time that in some cases the choice between phylogram and chronogram can have a dramatic effect on the resulting hotspot distributions. Branch lengths of phylograms indicate divergence in features (or at least in those used to infer the phylogeny), while those of chronograms indicate time since divergence. The interpretation of the resulting phylo‐diversity hotspots should reflect this difference.

Fern and lycophyte diversity in the Pacific Northwest: Patterns and predictors

AbstractRecent floristic efforts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) have now made it possible to characterize the broad‐scale patterns of fern and lycophyte diversity across this large and geologically‐complex region of western North America. The physiography of the PNW has been developing for over 200 million years, but Pleistocene glaciation‐induced migrations and recolonizations have strongly influenced the assembly of the flora. With the high dispersal potential of fern and lycophyte spores, the distribution patterns of pteridophytes may be representative of habitat suitability more than dispersal constraints. Our objective was to describe the biodiversity of pteridophytes in the PNW, determine the spatial distribution of that biodiversity in terms of phylogenetic diversity, identify centers of regional endemism, explore the correlations between biodiversity and environmental variables, and infer possible influences of past glaciation on the pteridophyte flora. We obtained presence‐only distribution data from two online databases. A phylogenetic tree was constructed using chloroplast DNA sequence data from GenBank. We used the Biodiverse software package to estimate and map phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism across the PNW, and to identify those regions of the PNW where diversity was higher or lower than expected in comparison to randomization models. Environmental correlates of diversity were identified using principal components analysis with bioclimatic data from WorldClim.org, and we used Maxent to predict habitat suitability for species under past and future climate conditions. We found evidence for the influence of past glaciations and glacial refugia on the patterns of pteridophyte diversity, that moisture availability and cold temperatures are strongly correlated with patterns of genus richness, phylogenetic diversity, and phylogenetic endemism. We infer that the topographic complexity of the region may be driving the assembly of the pteridophyte flora indirectly by influencing climate and precipitation patterns.

Evolutionary history of the flora of Mexico: Dry forests cradles and museums of endemism

AbstractMexico is considered an exceptional biogeographic area with a varied endemic flora, however spatial phylogenetic measures of biodiversity have not yet been estimated to understand how its flora assembled to form the current vegetation. Patterns of species richness, endemism, phylogenetic diversity, phylogenetic endemism and centers of neo‐ and paleo‐endemism were determined to examine differences and congruence among these measures, and their implications for conservation. Of 24 360 vascular plant species 10 235 (42%) are endemic. Areas of endemism and phylogenetic endemism were associated with dry forests in zones of topographic complexity in mountain systems, in deserts, and in isolated xeric vegetation. Every single locality where seasonally tropical dry forests have been reported in Mexico was identified as an area of endemism. Significant phylogenetic diversity was the most restricted and occurred in the Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt and in the Sierra de Chiapas. Notably, the highest degree of phylogenetic clustering comprising neo‐, paleo‐, and super‐endemism was identified in southernmost Mexico. Most vascular plant lineages diverged in the Miocene (5–20 mya) when arid environments expanded across the world. The location of Mexico between two very large landmasses and the fact that more than fifty percent of its surface is arid favored the establishment of tropical lineages adapted to extreme seasonality and aridity. These lineages were able to migrate from both North and South America across Central America presumably during the Miocene and to diversify, illustrating the signature of the flora of Mexico of areas of endemism with a mixture of neo‐ and paleo‐endemism.

Filters of floristic exchange: How traits and climate shape the rain forest invasion of Sahul from Sunda

AbstractAimTo evaluate how biogeographical and ecological processes influenced species distributions and community assembly in a continental rain forest flora with mixed biogeographical origins.LocationContinental Australia.MethodsWe identified 795 species with Sahul ancestry (Australian rain forest flora of Gondwanan origin) and 604 species with Sunda ancestry (rain forest plant lineages of Indo‐Malaysian origin) from a total of 1,872 free‐standing Australian woody rain forest taxa. We then compared the distribution of Sunda to Sahul species in relation to variation in species richness and phylogenetic endemism at continental scale, and local species distributions in available plot data from the Tropics (Cape York and the Australian Wet Tropics in northern Queensland) and subtropics (Nightcap‐Border Ranges, Washpool and Dorrigo, in northern New South Wales). We compared the dispersal and persistence characteristics, and key functional traits (leaf size, fruit size, wood density and maximum height at maturity) of the Sunda and Sahul components of the continental rain forest flora. The influence of climate (temperature) and local environmental (altitude) factors in driving fine‐scale distributional patterns was evaluated.ResultsSunda rain forest species richness decreased with increasing latitude but maintained high levels of endemism, including in the south. Sunda species traits suggest more efficient dispersal and faster growth than Sahul lineages. Resprouting (persistence) was less evident in species with Sunda than Sahul ancestry. We show that Sunda lineage distributions were influenced by interacting environmental and climatic factors, as well as historical contingencies.Main conclusionsEfficient dispersal and relatively fast growth likely facilitated the establishment and spread of Sunda lineages in Australia. However, the Sunda invasion was resisted in stable, saturated communities of Sahul lineages, and in the temperate south where climate acted as a strong filter. The results highlight the importance of integrating historical biogeography and contemporary ecological processes to study continental‐scale rain forest distribution and assembly.

Plant systematics and biogeography in the Australasian tropics

[Extract] It has been recognised for centuries that the majority of species are found in the tropics. The reasons are the subject of much debate, especially regarding the roles of temperature and time (Brown 2014), but whatever the causes, it is undeniable that the tropics teem with species known and unknown. Of all tropical areas, the Neotropics stands out for its exceptional taxon richness and rates of diversification (Antonelli et al. 2015). Whereas the Australasian tropics cannot match the species numbers of the Neotropics except perhaps for trees (Slik et al. 2015), it does boast the world's largest tropical island (New Guinea), among the largest and most intact tropical savannahs (Woinarski et al. 2007), the greatest concentration of basal angiosperm lineages (Metcalfe and Ford 2009) and the most species-rich mangroves (Daru et al. 2013). These landscapes are not just rich in species, but also exhibit high levels of phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism (Thornhill et al. 2016).

Spatial phylogenetics of the native California flora

BackgroundCalifornia is a world floristic biodiversity hotspot where the terms neo- and paleo-endemism were first applied. Using spatial phylogenetics, it is now possible to evaluate biodiversity from an evolutionary standpoint, including discovering significant areas of neo- and paleo-endemism, by combining spatial information from museum collections and DNA-based phylogenies. Here we used a distributional dataset of 1.39 million herbarium specimens, a phylogeny of 1083 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and 9 genes, and a spatial randomization test to identify regions of significant phylogenetic diversity, relative phylogenetic diversity, and phylogenetic endemism (PE), as well as to conduct a categorical analysis of neo- and paleo-endemism (CANAPE).ResultsWe found (1) extensive phylogenetic clustering in the South Coast Ranges, southern Great Valley, and deserts of California; (2) significant concentrations of short branches in the Mojave and Great Basin Deserts and the South Coast Ranges and long branches in the northern Great Valley, Sierra Nevada foothills, and the northwestern and southwestern parts of the state; (3) significant concentrations of paleo-endemism in Northwestern California, the northern Great Valley, and western Sonoran Desert, and neo-endemism in the White-Inyo Range, northern Mojave Desert, and southern Channel Islands. Multiple analyses were run to observe the effects on significance patterns of using different phylogenetic tree topologies (uncalibrated trees versus time-calibrated ultrametric trees) and using different representations of OTU ranges (herbarium specimen locations versus species distribution models).ConclusionsThese analyses showed that examining the geographic distributions of branch lengths in a statistical framework adds a new dimension to California floristics that, in comparison with climatic data, helps to illuminate causes of endemism. In particular, the concentration of significant PE in more arid regions of California extends previous ideas about aridity as an evolutionary stimulus. The patterns seen are largely robust to phylogenetic uncertainty and time calibration but are sensitive to the use of occurrence data versus modeled ranges, indicating that special attention toward improving geographic distributional data should be top priority in the future for advancing understanding of spatial patterns of biodiversity.

Incorporating phylogenetic information for the definition of floristic districts in hyperdiverse Amazon forests: Implications for conservation.

Using complementary metrics to evaluate phylogenetic diversity can facilitate the delimitation of floristic units and conservation priority areas. In this study, we describe the spatial patterns of phylogenetic alpha and beta diversity, phylogenetic endemism, and evolutionary distinctiveness of the hyperdiverse Ecuador Amazon forests and define priority areas for conservation. We established a network of 62 one‐hectare plots in terra firme forests of Ecuadorian Amazon. In these plots, we tagged, collected, and identified every single adult tree with dbh ≥10 cm. These data were combined with a regional community phylogenetic tree to calculate different phylogenetic diversity (PD) metrics in order to create spatial models. We used Loess regression to estimate the spatial variation of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity as well as phylogenetic endemism and evolutionary distinctiveness. We found evidence for the definition of three floristic districts in the Ecuadorian Amazon, supported by both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity data. Areas with high levels of phylogenetic endemism and evolutionary distinctiveness in Ecuadorian Amazon forests are unprotected. Furthermore, these areas are severely threatened by proposed plans of oil and mining extraction at large scales and should be prioritized in conservation planning for this region.

Environmental correlates of phylogenetic endemism in amphibians and the conservation of refugia in the Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa

AbstractAimsTo quantify the spatial distribution of amphibian phylogenetic endemism (PE), an indicator of potential refugia, to test PE for correlations with current and historical environmental predictors, and to evaluate the effectiveness of current protected areas at conserving evolutionary history.LocationCoastal Forests of Eastern Africa (CFEA) and the adjacent low‐elevation Eastern Afromontane (EA).MethodsWe integrated new and existing spatial and phylogenetic data to map PE for almost the full amphibian assemblage (41 of 55 species), including 35 intraspecific lineages from several species and complexes showing high phylogeographic structure. Using spatial and non‐spatial regressive models, we tested whether PE can be predicted by measures of Quaternary climate change, forest stability, topographic heterogeneity and current climate. PE results were intersected with the protected area network to evaluate current conservation effectiveness.ResultsWe detect refugia in Tanzania and coastal Kenya previously identified as CFEA centres of endemism but also new areas (lowland Tanga region and Pangani river, Zaraninge forest, Mafia island, Matumbi hills). Results show that refugia for amphibians (high PE) are located in areas with long‐term Quaternary climate stability and benign current climate (high precipitation of driest quarter, high annual precipitation), with climatically unstable areas demonstrating low PE. Conservation analyses revealed that ten PE hotspots account for over 25% of the total PE, but only small parts of these areas are under conservation protection.Main ConclusionsUtilizing cryptic diversity from novel phylogeographic data and distribution modelling improves our understanding of endemism patterns, with climate stability being strongly correlated with the distribution of PE. Our analyses point towards high PE areas being refugia, which require an urgent need to consolidate protected areas within centres of endemism in this highly threatened biodiversity hotspot.

Hotspot analyses indicate significant conservation gaps for evergreen broadleaved woody plants in China

Evergreen broadleaved woody plants (EBWPs) are dominant components in forests and savanna of the global tropic and subtropic regions. Southern China possesses the largest continuous area of subtropical EBWPs distribution, harboring a high proportion of endemic species. Hotspot and gap analyses are effective methods for analyzing the spatial pattern of biodiversity and conservation and were used here for EBWPs in China. Based on a distribution data set of 6,265 EBWPs with a spatial resolution of 50 × 50 km, we measured diversity of EBWPs in China using four indices: species richness, corrected weighted endemism, relative phylogenetic diversity, and phylogenetic endemism. According to the results based on 10% threshold, 15.73% of China’s land area was identified as hotspots using at least one diversity index. Only 2.14% of China’s land area was identified as hotspots for EBWPs by all four metrics simultaneously. Most of the hotspots locate in southern mountains. Moreover, we found substantial conservation gaps for Chinese EBWPs. Only 25.43% of the hotspots are covered by existing nature reserves by more than 10% of their area. We suggest to promote the establishment and management of nature reserve system within the hotspot gaps.

Spatial phylogenetics of the vascular flora of Chile

Current geographic patterns of biodiversity are a consequence of the evolutionary history of the lineages that comprise them. This study was aimed at exploring how evolutionary features of the vascular flora of Chile are distributed across the landscape.Using a phylogeny at the genus level for 87% of the Chilean vascular flora, and a geographic database of sample localities, we calculated phylogenetic diversity (PD), phylogenetic endemism (PE), relative PD (RPD), and relative PE (RPE). Categorical Analyses of Neo- and Paleo-Endemism (CANAPE) were also performed, using a spatial randomization to assess statistical significance. A cluster analysis using range-weighted phylogenetic turnover was used to compare among grid cells, and with known Chilean bioclimates. PD patterns were concordant with known centers of high taxon richness and the Chilean biodiversity hotspot. In addition, several other interesting areas of concentration of evolutionary history were revealed as potential conservation targets. The south of the country shows areas of significantly high RPD and a concentration of paleo-endemism, and the north shows areas of significantly low PD and RPD, and a concentration of neo-endemism. Range-weighted phylogenetic turnover shows high congruence with the main macrobioclimates of Chile. Even though the study was done at the genus level, the outcome provides an accurate outline of phylogenetic patterns that can be filled in as more fine-scaled information becomes available.

Freshwater diatom biogeography and the genus Luticola: an extreme case of endemism in Antarctica

Historical views have characterized Antarctica as a frozen desert with low diversity, although recent studies suggest that this may not be true for microscopic organisms. For microbes, assessing endemism in the Antarctic region has been particularly important, especially against a backdrop of debate regarding their presumed cosmopolitan nature. To contribute to this conversation, we highlight the observed endemism of the freshwater diatom genus Luticola in Antarctica by synthesizing the results of a modern high-resolution taxonomy from the Continental, Maritime, and sub-Antarctic regions. We report that Luticola has one of the highest endemic rates of any diatom genus in Antarctica, in terms of total number of species (taxon endemism) and percentage of the entire genus (phylogenetic endemism). Of the over 200 species of Luticola globally, nearly 20% (43) occur in the Antarctic, with 42 of these being endemic. Within regions, Maritime Antarctica has the largest number of Luticola species and endemics (28 and 23, respectively), followed by Continental Antarctica (14, 9) and sub-Antarctic islands (8, 6). Thus, 38 of the 42 endemics are found in a single region only. While the timing of Luticola diversification has not been established, fossil evidence suggests recent invasions and/or diversification over a relatively short geologic timescale. Understanding the origin and evolution of endemic diatom species in Antarctica will help us better understand microbial biogeography, as well as assess and interpret impacts of large-scale environmental change taking place at southern latitudes.

Spatial distribution of species, genus and phylogenetic endemism in the vascular flora of New Zealand, and implications for conservation

The present study aimed to detect and quantify centres of vascular plant species and genus endemism and genus phylogenetic endemism in the New Zealand archipelago and to assess the representation of these in the conservation estate. The presence of 2187 vascular plant species, comprising 213141 georeferenced records, was mapped onto 0.12° grid cells and a genus-level phylogeny was constructed mainly from rbcL sequences used to calculate phylogenetic metrics. Previously identified centres of endemism were confirmed, and new areas of endemism were suggested. Patterns of endemism differ with taxonomic rank. Randomisations showed that the South Island mountains have greater species corrected weighted endemism (CWE) than expected, whereas the randomisations for genus CWE and genus corrected phylogenetic endemism (CPE) showed the northern half of the North Island and northern offshore islands to have greater endemism than expected. Consistent with the randomisations, the highest values of genus CWE and genus CPE predominantly occur in the northern North Island and offshore islands. Centres of species CWE, genus CWE and genus CPE, supported by randomisation analyses, overlap with the New Zealand conservation estate by 40.01, 29.52 and 19.12% respectively. Many areas of high endemism are often poorly protected, highlighting the urgency to consider the areas of endemism identified here in conservation policy, planning and management.

Assessing the effectiveness of China's protected areas to conserve current and future amphibian diversity

AbstractAimProtected areas are an important tool for conserving species. In this study, we assessed the effectiveness of protected areas to conserve amphibian biodiversity in response to future changes in climate and land use.LocationChina.MethodsRange maps and occurrence records of amphibian species in China were analysed separately using ensemble species distribution modelling across three spatial scales to assess scale dependency. Climate velocity and corresponding residence time in protected areas and species’ ranges were calculated, together with a number of other effectiveness indices.ResultsPredicted declines in amphibian richness, endemism, phylogenetic diversity, phylogenetic endemism and suitable habitat were lower in protected than in unprotected areas, complementary‐priority sites or richness hotspots. However, less‐disturbed amphibian habitat, calculated from current and future projected land use data, in both protected and unprotected areas were consistently lost over time although this reduction was lower in protected areas. Although residence time of precipitation was longer in protected areas and within species’ ranges in protected areas, resident time of temperature was significantly shorter in both. These results were consistent regardless of data sources and spatial scales.Main conclusionsChina's current protected areas are predicted to maintain future amphibian distribution and diversity, but are insufficient in preventing the losses of suitable climate and areas of less‐disturbed habitat. The top 10% of future conservation gaps for amphibians were identified in China based on performance of effectiveness indices. The two largest gaps prioritized for future protected areas include the southern parts of Tibet and the Hengduan Mountains.

Does range-restricted evolutionary history predict extinction risk? A case study in lizards

Aim Conservation is often prioritized by identifying regional clusters of threatened or endemic species. Another approach is to assess the evolutionary distinctiveness of groups of taxa using phylodiversity measures. However, quantification of evolutionary history has traditionally not accounted for its uneven geographical distribution due to the variation in species ranges. We assess the efficacy of phylogenetic endemism (PE) to predict high extinction risk in comparison to estimates of species range restriction (weighted endemism, WE) and phylogenetic diversity (PD). PE measures the relative range restriction of evolutionary history (lineages), while WE concentrates on the tips of the tree of life, treating all such branches as being of equal length. Location/Methods Using New Zealand's endemic skinks and geckos, we mapped the geographical variation in their extinction risk, PE, WE and PD and measured the extent to which extinction risk exhibited phylogenetic clustering for each group. Correlations between geographical concentrations of high skink and gecko extinction risk with PE, WE and PD were calculated. Results PE was predictive of spatial clusters of high extinction risk for geckos (r2 = 0.34, P < 0.001) while WE was markedly less so (r2 = 0.19, P < 0.001). The reverse applied to skinks, with WE most predictive of high risk (r2 = 0.26, P < 0.001). The phylogenetic signal of extinction risk was significantly conserved for geckos, but was weaker and non-significant for skinks. PE and WE were not predictive of low risk. PD was not predictive of risk. Main conclusions PE and related measures may be predictive of extinction risk when risk is phylogenetically conserved. Mapping the geographical variation in PE could be a useful first assessment of extinction risk for many groups because phylogenies are increasingly available, while full risk status categories are not. These findings might apply to other groups and locations and warrant further investigation.

Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

Climate change is expected to lead to significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and endemism at a continental scale in Australia, threatening the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypt trees that dominate much of the continent. Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts1,2,3. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species4, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades1 and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity5. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism6 (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

Comparison of conservation metrics in a case study of lemurs.

Conservation planning is important to protect species from going extinct now that natural habitats are decreasing owing to human activity and climate change. However, there is considerable controversy in choosing appropriate metrics to weigh the value of species and geographic regions. For example, the added value of phylogenetic conservation-selection criteria remains disputed because high correlations between them and the nonphylogenetic criteria of species richness have been reported. We evaluated the commonly used conservation metrics species richness, endemism, phylogenetic diversity (PD), and phylogenetic endemism (PE) in a case study on lemurs of Madagascar. This enabled us to identify the conservation target of each metric and consider how they may be used in future conservation planning. We also devised a novel metric that uses a phylogeny scaled according to the rate of phenotypic evolution as a proxy for a species' ability to adapt to change. High rates of evolution may indicate generalization or specialization. Both specialization and low rates of evolution may result in an inability to adapt to changing environments. We examined conservation priorities by using the inverse of the rate of body mass evolution to account for species with low rates of evolution. In line with previous work, we found high correlations among species richness and PD (r = 0.96), and endemism and PE (r = 0.82) in Malagasy lemurs. Phylogenetic endemism in combination with rates of evolution and their inverse prioritized grid cells containing highly endemic and specialized lemurs at risk of extinction, such as Avahi occidentalis and Lepilemur edwardsi, 2 endangered lemurs with high rates of phenotypic evolution and low-quality diets, and Hapalemur aureus, a critically endangered species with a low rate of body mass evolution and a diet consisting of very high doses of cyanide.