Phreatic Eruptions Research Articles

水蒸気噴火による "低温 "火砕流の人的被害の発生条件

水蒸気噴火による "低温 "火砕流の人的被害の発生条件

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes.Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge.Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions.

Modeling the dynamics of a phreatic eruption based on a tilt observation: Barrier breakage leading to the 2014 eruption of Mount Ontake, Japan

AbstractAlthough phreatic eruptions are common volcanic phenomena that sometimes result in significant disasters, their dynamics are poorly understood. In this study, we address the dynamics of the phreatic eruption of Mount Ontake, Japan, in 2014 based on analyses of a tilt change observed immediately (450 s) before the eruption onset. We conducted two sets of analysis: a waveform inversion and a modified phase‐space analysis. Our waveform inversion of the tilt signal points to a vertical tensile crack at a depth of 1100 m. Our modified phase‐space analysis suggests that the tilt change was at first a linear function in time that then switched to exponential growth. We constructed simple analytical models to explain these temporal functions. The linear function was explained by the boiling of underground water controlled by a constant heat supply from a greater depth. The exponential function was explained by the decompression‐induced boiling of water and the upward Darcy flow of the water vapor through a permeable region of small cracks that were newly created in response to ongoing boiling. We interpret that this region was intact prior to the start of the tilt change, and thus, it has acted as a permeability barrier for the upward migration of fluids; it was a breakage of this barrier that led to the eruption.

Probable dynamic triggering of phreatic eruption in the Tatun volcano group of Taiwan

On 16 March 2014 (UTC), a small phreatic eruption occurred in the Tatun volcano group (TVG) of Taiwan, although it was not reported until analysis of both seismic and acoustic data revealed that the source was in the vicinity of the Hsiaoyukeng fumarole. A replay of the acoustic data accelerated ∼60-fold reveals that the gradual decrease in frequency that was recorded produces a volcanic whistle, similar to the jet of steam released from a heating kettle. The phreatic eruption may have been dynamically triggered by a M6.7 earthquake in Chile. A similar phenomenon occurred on 5 January 2015, when a phreatic eruption was recorded in the TVG immediately after the generation of dynamic seismic waves by an M5.0 earthquake in Japan. This is the first scientific report of a phreatic eruption detected in the TVG, indicating that these volcanoes are still active. As a result, it is important to monitor their volcanic activity and identify volcanic reservoirs beneath the TVG to mitigate future possible volcanic impact.

A Hybrid Model Using Time Series and Markov Chain for the Detection of the Main Periodicities on the Temperature Data in Nisyros Volcano, South Aegean

Nisyros volcano has shown a series of volcanic and seismo-tectonic events including recent volcanic phreatic eruptions intruding an impermeable layer near the surface. Geological and atmospheric phenomena contribute to the heat output from the hydrothermal system. To monitor the temperature fluctuations from a vent gas emission in Nisyros, a temperature sensor has been installed in a fumarole near the Lofos and Laki sites. Raw and decomposed temperature data were analyzed to determine the cycles of heat contribution at the surface from the endogenic volcanic activity and from the interaction with the atmospheric temperature. The time series decomposition using Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter and the Markov chain approach have been utilized as complementary tools for the determination of the main periodicities on the temperature data. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter is used for the time series decomposition of the temperature data into the longandshort term component of the time series. Markov chain analysis was used to determine probabilistically the periodicity in the temperature data and aggregate load impact in forecasting. Using spectral analysis and cluster analysis we determine the main periodicities of the longand short term cycles of heat contribution. Raw temperature data have shown an accelerated frequency of hourly temperature decreases at the surface. Small temperature decreases occur within the warmer atmospheric temperatures and dramatic temperature decreases occur during colder atmospheric temperatures. A physical or a mechanical phenomenon may prevent heat from reaching the surface. The time series decomposition performs well in long term cycles while the Markov chain performs better in short term cycles.Both periods are related to cyclones that occur in the Aegean Sea. Since Nisyros is an island, the temperature measurements are probably affected by various phenomena (cyclones, sea tides) that occur in the sea and affect the hydrothermal convection.

Special issue “The phreatic eruption of Mt. Ontake volcano in 2014”

Special issue “The phreatic eruption of Mt. Ontake volcano in 2014”

Are the ashes from the latest eruptions (2010–2016) at Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica) related to phreatic or phreatomagmatic events?

The initial eruptive episodes of explosive eruptions are classified as phreatic if the amount of juvenile material (scoria, glass, pumice) is null, and the amount of fresh accidental lithics, and hydrothermally altered lithics, is substantial. Phreatic eruptions have been in some cases recognized as precursory events preceding phreatomagmatic and magmatic eruptive phases. Usually, the lithological features of tephra deposits are investigated and sampled in the field. Investigation of ash samples under binocular microscope or by Back-Scattered Electron (BSE) microscope images of polished sections is usually considered sufficient to typify the fragmentation mechanism of the eruption. The opening eruptive phases at Turrialba volcano, together with the formation of new intracraters (i.e. 2010, 2012, 2014) and the enlargement of the Western Crater (29 October 2014 to present), were classified, in previous papers and internal reports as phreatic. We studied a series of ash samples erupted from 2010 to 2016, with the aim of understanding the fragmentation processes characterizing the vent opening phases. We used SEM+EDS analyses, in addition to field and microscopic investigation. Results showed a composition of accidental lithics of fresh to hydrothermally altered clasts and secondary minerals (82–98%), besides juvenile andesite fragments (2–18%), which leads us to revisit the classification of the initial eruptive phases of Turrialba as phreatomagmatic. Our method allowed the detection of a juvenile component directly involved in an effective magma-water interaction, which was possible only by a scrutinous examination of the glass surface textures by SEM in the range size between 3 and 3.5 phi. We recommend such a type of investigation when the identification of fresh magma in a new eruption is crucial for the preparedness and hazard evaluation at active volcanoes.

Estimation of total discharged mass from the phreatic eruption of Ontake Volcano, central Japan, on September 27, 2014

The total mass discharged by the phreatic eruption of Ontake Volcano, central Japan, on September 27, 2014, was estimated using several methods. The estimated discharged mass was 1.2 × 106 t (segment integration method), 8.9 × 105 t (Pyle’s exponential method), and varied from 8.6 × 103 to 2.5 × 106 t (Hayakawa’s single isopach method). The segment integration and Pyle’s exponential methods gave similar values. The single isopach method, however, gave a wide range of results depending on which contour was used. Therefore, the total discharged mass of the 2014 eruption is estimated at between 8.9 × 105 and 1.2 × 106 t. More than 90 % of the total mass accumulated within the proximal area. This shows how important it is to include a proximal area field survey for the total mass estimation of phreatic eruptions. A detailed isopleth mass distribution map was prepared covering as far as 85 km from the source. The main ash-fall dispersal was ENE in the proximal and medial areas and E in the distal area. The secondary distribution lobes also extended to the S and NW proximally, reflecting the effects of elutriation ash and surge deposits from pyroclastic density currents during the phreatic eruption. The total discharged mass of the 1979 phreatic eruption was also calculated for comparison. The resulting volume of 1.9 × 106 t (using the segment integration method) indicates that it was about 1.6–2.1 times larger than the 2014 eruption. The estimated average discharged mass flux rate of the 2014 eruption was 1.7 × 108 kg/h and for the 1979 eruption was 1.0 × 108 kg/h. One of the possible reasons for the higher flux rate of the 2014 eruption is the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents at the summit area.

Shallow pressure sources associated with the 2007 and 2014 phreatic eruptions of Mt. Ontake, Japan

We modeled pressure sources under Mount Ontake volcano, Japan, on the basis of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations of ground deformation during the time period including the 2007 and 2014 phreatic eruptions. The total change in volume in two sources below sea level in the period including the 2007 eruption was estimated from GNSS network observations to be 6 × 106 m3. Additionally, data from a GNSS campaign survey yielded an estimated volume change of 0.28 × 106 m3 in a shallower source just beneath the volcanic vents. The 2007 eruption may have been activated by magmatic activity at depth. During the 2014 eruption, the volume change at depth was very small. However, tiltmeter data indicated inflation from a shallow source that began 7 min before the eruption, representing a volume change estimated to be 0.38 × 106 m3. We infer that the potential for subsurface hydrothermal activity may have remained high after the 2007 eruption.

Sulfur isotopic characteristics of volcanic products from the September 2014 Mount Ontake eruption, Japan

Components and sulfur isotopic compositions of pyroclastic materials from the 2014 Mt. Ontake eruption were investigated. The volcanic ash samples were found to be composed of altered volcanic fragments, alunite, anhydrite, biotite, cristobalite, gypsum, ilmenite, kaolin minerals, native sulfur, orthopyroxene, plagioclase, potassium feldspar, pyrite, pyrophyllite, quartz, rutile, and smectite, and most of these minerals were likely derived from the acidic alteration zones of Mt. Ontake. The absence of juvenile material in the eruptive products indicates that the eruption was phreatic. The sulfur isotopic compositions of the water-leached sulfate, hydrochloric acid-leached sulfate, acetone-leached native sulfur, and pyrite of the samples indicate that these sulfur species were produced by disproportionation of magmatic SO2 in the hydrothermal system at temperatures of 270–281 °C. This temperature range is consistent with that inferred from the hydrothermal mineral assemblage (e.g., pyrophyllite and rutile) in the 2014 pyroclastic materials (200–300 °C). Except for the sulfur isotopic compositions of anhydrite, which may have been altered by incorporation of sulfate minerals in a fumarolic area with lower sulfur isotopic values into the underground materials during the 1979 eruption, no significant differences in the mineral assemblages and sulfur isotopic compositions of the pyroclastic materials were identified between the products of the 2014 and 1979 Ontake phreatic eruptions, which suggests geochemical similarities in the underlying hydrothermal systems before the 2014 and 1979 eruptions.

A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

AbstractAlthough most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic‐geodetic‐geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user‐friendly, open‐access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000–2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010–2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

Resistivity structure and geochemistry of the Jigokudani Valley hydrothermal system, Mt. Tateyama, Japan

This study clarifies the hydrothermal system of Jigokudani Valley near Mt. Tateyama volcano in Japan by using a combination of audio-frequency magnetotelluric (AMT) survey and hot-spring water analysis in order to assess the potential of future phreatic eruptions in the area. Repeated phreatic eruptions in the area about 40,000years ago produced the current valley morphology, which is now an active solfatara field dotted with hot springs and fumaroles indicative of a well-developed hydrothermal system. The three-dimensional (3D) resistivity structure of the hydrothermal system was modeled by using the results of an AMT survey conducted at 25 locations across the valley in 2013–2014. The model suggests the presence of a near-surface highly conductive layer of <50m in thickness across the entire valley, which is interpreted as a cap rock layer. Immediately below the cap rock is a relatively resistive body interpreted as a gas reservoir. Field measurements of temperature, pH, and electrical conductivity (EC) were taken at various hot springs across the valley, and 12 samples of hot-spring waters were analyzed for major ion chemistry and H2O isotopic ratios. All hot-spring waters had low pH and could be categorized into three types on the basis of the Cl−/SO42− concentration ratio, with all falling largely on a mixing line between magmatic fluids and local meteoric water (LMW). The geochemical analysis suggests that the hydrothermal system includes a two-phase zone of vapor–liquid. A comparison of the resistivity structure and the geochemically inferred structure suggests that a hydrothermal reservoir is present at a depth of approximately 500m, from which hot-spring water differentiates into the three observed types. The two-phase zone appears to be located immediately beneath the cap rock structure. These findings suggest that the hydrothermal system of Jigokudani Valley exhibits a number of factors that could trigger a future phreatic eruption.

Reconstruction of a phreatic eruption on 27 September 2014 at Ontake volcano, central Japan, based on proximal pyroclastic density current and fallout deposits

The phreatic eruption at Ontake volcano on 27 September 2014, which caused the worst volcanic disaster in the past half-century in Japan, was reconstructed based on observations of the proximal pyroclastic density current (PDC) and fallout deposits. Witness observations were also used to clarify the eruption process. The deposits are divided into three major depositional units (Units A, B, and C) which are characterized by massive, extremely poorly sorted, and multimodal grain-size distribution with 30–50 wt% of fine ash (silt–clay component). The depositional condition was initially dry but eventually changed to wet. Unit A originated from gravity-driven turbulent PDCs in the relatively dry, vent-opening phase. Unit B was then produced mainly by fallout from a vigorous moist plume during vent development. Unit C was derived from wet ash fall in the declining stage. Ballistic ejecta continuously occurred during vent opening and development. As observed in the finest population of the grain-size distribution, aggregate particles were formed throughout the eruption, and the effect of water in the plume on the aggregation increased with time and distance. Based on the deposit thickness, duration, and grain-size data, and by applying a scaling analysis using a depth-averaged model of turbulent gravity currents, the particle concentration and initial flow speed of the PDC at the summit area were estimated as 2 × 10−4–2 × 10−3 and 24–28 m/s, respectively. The tephra thinning trend in the proximal area shows a steeper slope than in similar-sized magmatic eruptions, indicating a large tephra volume deposited over a short distance owing to the wet dispersal conditions. The Ontake eruption provided an opportunity to examine the deposits from a phreatic eruption with a complex eruption sequence that reflects the effect of external water on the eruption dynamics.

Reconstruction of the 2014 eruption sequence of Ontake Volcano from recorded images and interviews

A phreatic eruption at Mount Ontake (3067 m) on September 27, 2014, led to 64 casualties, including missing people. In this paper, we clarify the eruption sequence of the 2014 eruption from recorded images (photographs and videos obtained by climbers) and interviews with mountain guides and workers in mountain huts. The onset of eruption was sudden, without any clear precursory surface phenomena (such as ground rumbling or strong smell of sulfide). Our data indicate that the eruption sequence can be divided into three phases. Phase 1: The eruption started with dry pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) caused by ash column collapse. The PDCs flowed down 2.5 km SW and 2 km NW from the craters. In addition, PDCs moved horizontally by approximately 1.5 km toward N and E beyond summit ridges. The temperature of PDCs at the summit area partially exceeded 100 °C, and an analysis of interview results suggested that the temperature of PDCs was mostly in the range of 30–100 °C. At the summit area, there were violent falling ballistic rocks. Phase 2: When the outflow of PDCs stopped, the altitude of the eruption column increased; tephra with muddy rain started to fall; and ambient air temperature decreased. Falling ballistic rocks were almost absent during this phase. Phase 3: Finally, muddy hot water flowed out from the craters. These models reconstructed from observations are consistent with the phreatic eruption models and typical eruption sequences recorded at similar volcanoes.

Three-dimensional resistivity modeling of GREATEM survey data from Ontake Volcano, northwest Japan

Ontake Volcano is located in central Japan, 200 km northwest of Tokyo and erupted on September 27, 2014. To study the structure of Ontake Volcano and discuss the process of its phreatic eruption, which can help in future eruptions mitigation, airborne electromagnetic (AEM) surveys using the grounded electrical-source airborne transient electromagnetic (GREATEM) system were conducted over Ontake Volcano. Field measurements and data analysis were done by OYO Company under the Sabo project managed by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Processed data and 1D resistivity models were provided by this project. We performed numerical forward modeling to generate a three-dimensional (3D) resistivity structure model that fits the GREATEM data where a composite of 1D resistivity models was used as the starting model. A 3D electromagnetic forward-modeling scheme based on a staggered-grid finite-difference method was modified and used to calculate the response of the 3D resistivity model along each survey line. We verified the model by examining the fit of magnetic-transient responses between the field data and 3D forward-model computed data. The preferred 3D resistivity models show that a moderately resistive structure (30–200 Ω m) is characteristic of most of the volcano, and were able to delineate a hydrothermal zone within the volcanic edifice. This hydrothermal zone may be caused by a previous large sector collapse.

2014 Mount Ontake eruption: characteristics of the phreatic eruption as inferred from aerial observations

The sudden eruption of Mount Ontake on September 27, 2014, led to a tragedy that caused more than 60 fatalities including missing persons. In order to mitigate the potential risks posed by similar volcano-related disasters, it is vital to have a clear understanding of the activity status and progression of eruptions. Because the erupted material was largely disturbed while access was strictly prohibited for a month, we analyzed the aerial photographs taken on September 28. The results showed that there were three large vents in the bottom of the Jigokudani valley on September 28. The vent in the center was considered to have been the main vent involved in the eruption, and the vents on either side were considered to have been formed by non-explosive processes. The pyroclastic flows extended approximately 2.5 km along the valley at an average speed of 32 km/h. The absence of burned or fallen trees in this area indicated that the temperatures and destructive forces associated with the pyroclastic flow were both low. The distribution of ballistics was categorized into four zones based on the number of impact craters per unit area, and the furthest impact crater was located 950 m from the vents. Based on ballistic models, the maximum initial velocity of the ejecta was estimated to be 111 m/s. Just after the beginning of the eruption, very few ballistic ejecta had arrived at the summit, even though the eruption plume had risen above the summit, which suggested that a large amount of ballistic ejecta was expelled from the volcano several tens-of-seconds after the beginning of the eruption. This initial period was characterized by the escape of a vapor phase from the vents, which then caused the explosive eruption phase that generated large amounts of ballistic ejecta via sudden decompression of a hydrothermal reservoir.

Hydrothermal alteration of surficial rocks at Solfatara (Campi Flegrei): Petrophysical properties and implications for phreatic eruption processes

Solfatara crater is located within the Campi Flegrei caldera to the west of Naples (Italy). It is one of the largest fumarolic manifestations known, and the rocks hosting the hydrothermal system are affected by intense hydrothermal alteration. Alteration can result in changes of degassing behavior, and in the formation of a cap rock thereby increasing the probability of phreatic eruptions. Here, we investigate the effects of alunitic (solfataric) alteration on the mineralogy, the physical properties (porosity, density, permeability) and the mechanical properties (strength) of the rocks involved, as well as its influence on fragmentation and ejection behavior. Our results show that the pristine mineralogy of deposits from the vicinity of the Solfatara cryptodome and from Pisciarelli is almost completely replaced by amorphous silica and alunite. The differences in the degree of alteration among the samples series are reflected in the investigated properties and behavior as well as in the analysis of the experimentally generated particles. Alunitic alteration increases porosity and permeability, whereas it reduces density, elastic wave velocity and strength leading to higher fragmentation and ejection speeds for the sample series examined in this study. Our results also show that alteration results in the generation of a high fraction of fines (particle sizes <10μm) during fragmentation, mainly composed of alunite crystals. Due to their potential for inducing chronic disease, dispersion of such material should represent a serious health hazard on a local scale and the evaluation of precautions should be considered.

Detection of crustal deformation prior to the 2014 Mt. Ontake eruption by the stacking method

The phreatic eruption of Mt. Ontake in central Japan occurred in September 27, 2014. No obvious crustal deformation was observed prior to the eruption, and the magnitudes of other precursor phenomena were very small. In this study, we used the stacking method to detect crustal deformation prior to the eruption. The stacking method is a technique to improve the signal-to-noise ratio by stacking multiple records of crustal deformation. We succeeded in detecting a slight crustal deformation caused by a volume change in the shallow region beneath the volcano’s summit from 1 month prior to the eruption. We also detected a slight crustal deformation that may have been caused by a volume increase in the deep region from one and a half months before the eruption. The magnitude of the volume change in the shallow region did not differ significantly in the 2014 eruption compared to the volume change during the small Mt. Ontake eruption in 2007, and the volume change in the deep region was rather smaller in 2014 than in 2007.

History of phreatic eruptions of Atosanupuri lava dome, eastern Hokkaido, Japan

History of phreatic eruptions of Atosanupuri lava dome, eastern Hokkaido, Japan

Subterranean thermal model beneath an active crater leading to a phreatic eruption

Subterranean thermal model beneath an active crater leading to a phreatic eruption