The continuous excessive application of phosphorus (P) fertilizers in intensive agricultural production leads to a large accumulation of P in surface soils, increasing the risk of soil P loss by runoff and leaching. However, there are few studies on the accumulation and loss of P from surface soil to deep soil profiles driven by shallow groundwater table (SGT) fluctuations. This study used the intensive cropland around 7 plateau lakes in Yunnan Province as an example and conducted in situ monitoring of P storage in the soil profile and SGT during the rainy season (RS) and dry season (DS) as well as simulation experiments on soil P loss. The aim was to study the spatiotemporal variation in P accumulation in the soil profile of cropland driven by SGT fluctuations in the RS and DS and estimate the P loss in the soil profile driven by SGT fluctuations. The results showed that fluctuations in the SGT promoted P accumulation from the surface soil to deeper soil. The proportions of P stored in various forms in the 30–60 cm and 60–100 cm soil layers in the RS were greater than those in the DS, while the average proportion in the 0–30 cm soil layer in the DS was as high as 48%. Compared with those in the DS, the maximum decreases in the proportion of P stored as TP and Olsen-P in the 0–100 cm soil layer in the RS were 16% and 58%, respectively, due to the rise in the SGT (SGT <30 cm), while the soil TP storage decreased by only 1% when the SGT was maintained at 60–100 cm. The critical thresholds for soil Olsen-P and TP gradually decreased with increasing soil depth, and the risk of P loss in deeper soil increased. The loss of soil P was increased by fluctuations in the SGT. Based on the cropland area around the 7 plateau lakes, P storage, and SGT fluctuations, the average loss intensity and loss amount of TP in the 0–100 cm soil layer around the 7 plateau lakes were estimated to be 25 kg/ha and 56 t, respectively. Therefore, reducing exogenous P inputs, improving soil endogenous P utilization efficiency and maintaining deep soil P retention are the basic strategies for preventing and controlling P accumulation and loss in deep soil caused by SGT fluctuations.
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