Philippine Foreign Policy Research Articles

Explaining populist securitization and Rodrigo Duterte's anti-establishment Philippine foreign policy

Abstract To the surprise of many, populist leader Rodrigo Duterte instigated major shifts in Philippine foreign policy. His antagonism against the United States and European Union, fascination towards the revisionist Russia and China, and disdain for international law and institutions were viewed as significant departures from the nation's orthodox stances. Drawing on Moffitt and Tormey's conception of populism as a political style, and Buzan, Wæver and de Wilde's securitization theory, we develop and test the populist securitization framework in the context of Duterte's foreign policy-making. We argue that populist performances are securitizing acts comprised of distinctly populist performative repertoires used by political leaders to frame and execute an ‘anti-establishment’ foreign policy with sufficient level of audience consent. Using discursive interpretative analysis, we examine the impacts of Duterte's populist securitization of the liberal West as a threat to Philippine sovereignty. We find that while populist performances function as securitizing acts that can reorient established foreign policy positions and biases, such performances lead to uncertainty and erosion of credibility amid institutional fragmentation and domestic political distractions. Thus, the sustainability of populist performances on foreign policy depends on reconciling the tensions and overlaps between the populist leader's varying audiences and their mass constituencies.

Upholding Sovereignty and Constitutional Mandates: The Philippine Supreme Court’s Ruling on the Tripartite Agreement for Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking in the South China Sea

Abstract This article examines the Philippine Supreme Court’s landmark ruling declaring the Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (jmsu) unconstitutional, emphasizing its implications for Philippine foreign policy and territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The jmsu, an agreement between China, Vietnam, and the Philippines for joint exploration in a contested maritime area, was challenged for contravening the Philippine Constitution’s provisions on national sovereignty over natural resources. The decision reaffirms the Philippines’ sovereign rights and sets a legal precedent emphasizing the primacy of the Philippine Constitution in international agreements on natural resource exploration. This article discusses the decision’s significant impact on Philippine foreign policy, the ongoing territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea, and its wider relevance to diplomacy and international law. The ruling marks a critical affirmation of Philippine sovereignty and adherence to legal norms, shaping the country’s future diplomatic relations and stressing the importance of constitutional fidelity in international agreements, especially within the contentious South China Sea areas.

Decoding the Duterte Doctrine: Understanding Strategic Changes in Philippine Foreign Policy during Duterte Administration

This article employs a sophisticated neoclassical realist framework to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the intricate landscape of Philippine foreign policy under the administration of former Philippine President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, elucidating the contours of the so-called “The Duterte Doctrine”. This encompasses a nuanced exploration of the nation's role as a middle power, focusing on the pillars of national security, economic diplomacy, and the safeguarding of overseas Filipinos. Employing an analytical lens that intricately weaves systemic pressures and domestic imperatives, the study meticulously unravels the historical trajectory of Philippines-USA relations and the evolving dynamics in the Philippines-China relationship. Methodologically, a discerning review of historical events, policy decisions, and diplomatic maneuvers is undertaken to unveil discernible patterns and strategic recalibrations within the nation's foreign policy landscape. The main findings underscore a diplomatic chess game in the Philippines-China relationship, marked by a strategic departure in defense posture with the cessation of joint military exercises with the U.S. Economic diplomacy, encapsulated in the Duterte Doctrine, manifests as a fervent pursuit of diversified economic partnerships, concurrently raising cogent concerns about potential economic dependence. The analysis accentuates the adaptive resilience of Philippine foreign policy in response to the evolving global landscape, thereby substantively contributing to regional stability. As a middle power, the Philippines astutely leverages its agency amid great power competition while assiduously upholding principles of international law and justice, necessitating nuanced and context-specific approaches to maintain a delicate balance between traditional alliances and emerging economic partnerships.

Consistency amid Seeming Shifts: Philippine Foreign Policy between the United States and China

Consistency amid Seeming Shifts: Philippine Foreign Policy between the United States and China

Duterte's transactionalist foreign policy and the COVID‐19 crisis in the Philippines

AbstractThis article contributes a new layer to the existing analyses of Duterte's foreign policy by arguing that he epitomized a transactionalist approach to Philippine foreign policy. This approach favored bilateral to multilateral relations, focused on short‐term wins rather than long‐term foresight, adhered to a zero‐sum worldview, rejected value‐based policymaking, and did not follow a grand strategy. Most of these qualities have been apparent in Duterte's relationship with China, Russia, and the United States but became even more prominent during the COVID‐19 crisis. The analysis revealed that Duterte's transactionalist foreign policy rhymed with his domestic politics, and his obsession with winning now resulted in contradictions in his foreign policy, indicating a lack of a grand strategy that informed his decision‐making. This article contributes a real‐world case of a transactionalist foreign policy while considering whether it would persist in future policymaking in the Philippines.

Nexus of Strong Presidentialism and Philippine Foreign Policy: The Case of the Duterte Presidency's Hedging toward China*

During the Duterte presidency from June 2016 to June 2022, the government of the Philippines limited its affinity with the United States and pursued an ostensibly pro‐China policy. This bold move took place amid the ongoing US–China rivalry. This paper carries out a retrospective examination of Duterte's China policy from the perspective of Philippine domestic politics. Specifically, we assess the international relations literature on hedging as a foreign policy strategy and argue that domestic factors play a major role in filtering systemic influences and leaving state leaders with sufficient room for strategic discretion and maneuvering. This is particularly the case with the Philippines, where strong presidentialism gives clout to the president in foreign policy development. We argue that much of the “audacious” behavior in the foreign policy of the Duterte government can simultaneously be understood as pragmatic, as it was believed to better serve the regime's short‐term goals. While the alliance with the United States remained largely intact, the Duterte government emphasized its success in stabilizing Sino–Philippine relations.

From Aquino to Marcos: political survival and Philippine foreign policy towards China

ABSTRACT How does the Philippines form its foreign policy toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC)? Existing work on the Philippine foreign policy toward China explains the country’s stance solely through geopolitical or domestic factors. By examining the political calculus of, and the policy formulation by, the Benigno Aquino III (2010–2016), Rodrigo Duterte (2016–2022), and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (2022-) administrations, I argue that a combination of domestic politics, geopolitical considerations, and economic realities have shaped the approach of the Philippines toward China. Rather than focus on one factor to explain the Philippines’ foreign policy, I suggest that the combination and interaction of these three factors accounting for how various Philippine administrations have operated explains the Philippines’ China policies. Furthermore, I nuance these three factors through the lens of political survival. I suggest that leaders stay in power by accumulating political power and staving off challengers. In the Philippines, I suggest that leaders capitalize on criticizing or deviating from the prior administration’s China policies, which have resulted in economic or political effects that generate resentment from the population. As a result, Presidents often reverse or modify the policies set about by the previous administration, resulting in a new set of approaches toward China. Data on this paper was facilitated by years of fieldwork conducted in the Philippines between 2017 to 2020. I interviewed officials in the Aquino, Duterte, and Marcos administrations, Filipino oligarchs, political brokers, lawyers, political party representatives, and in-country observers.

Selling "independent foreign policy" amid the US–China rivalry: populism and Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte government

This paper examines Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte government (2016–2022). During this period, Philippine foreign policy is widely acknowledged to have undergone dramatic shifts, with the government making friendly overtures towards China at the cost of its traditional alliance with the US. From a foreign policy analysis perspective, this paper explicitly focuses on the role of political leadership in guiding national foreign policy. This paper argues that the Duterte government made strategic use of political marketing in promoting its populist foreign policy. Thus, political marketing is used as an analytical lens with which to examine much of the rhetoric and behaviour of the Duterte government, particularly in regard to its response to the US–China rivalry. By engaging in this supposedly diplomatic game, the Duterte government tried to sell its foreign policy promises and outcomes as products even when its rhetoric was at times disconnected from its actual performance. Overall, this paper develops an alternative perspective from which to add to our understanding of the role of populist foreign policy initiatives in a fragile democratic setting.

Cold War Narrative of Dependency: Revisiting Philippine Collaboration with America and Diosdado Macapagal’s Neo-Realist Response

Diosdado Macapagal, Philippine President from 1961-1965, whose career was made rich by working in the foreign service, belonged to a tradition of championing a Foreign Policy shaped under America’s tutelage, adhering to democratic ideals, dismissive of Communism, and indifferent to neutralism and non-alignment. While various groups branded this policy as one of mendicancy that jeopardized Philippine Independence itself, President Manuel Roxas, who instituted it in 1946, was given little to no option but to side with America. The Second World War’s apocalyptic results required prompt and massive reconstruction and industrialization, necessitating foreign aid.
 
 This study reveals a chapter in the Philippines’ Cold War History, which show instances of balancing the state of dependence on America with neo-realist postures. Macapagal worked for Land Reform to peacefully address Communism within and collaborated with America in the name of national security to counter possible foreign communist infiltration. In an anarchic world forged by Cold War developments, Macapagal secured US financial and military assistance and defended national interest in a neorealist posture to the point of championing views more orthodox and even contrary to that of America. Filipino’s preference for collaboration with America made the neo-colonial situation manageable at that time, to still reap whatever the superpower is willing to give while it promoted its own global agenda. Macapagal worked within this neo-colonial setting by balancing dependency and neorealism.
 
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Duterte and Alliance Behavior of the Philippines

Many have defined the Philippines' dominant alliance behavior to be hedging; that is, an alignment choice adapted to address the security challenges often faced by small and middle powers in relation to major powers. Hedging should be understood as a strategy to manage the security risks that small and middle powers face, whereas balancing and bandwagoning are security strategies created in response to security threats. This paper argues that before President Duterte's election in 2016, it could be argued that the Philippines was engaging in hedging or low intensity balancing between the U.S. and China. However, Philippine foreign policy underwent a swift about-face as a result of Duterte's objectives, and as a result the country began bandwagoning with China.

The Philippines-U.S. Alliance and 21st Century U.S. Grand strategy in the Indo-Pacific region: from the Obama Administration to the Biden Administration

ABSTRACT This article situates the Philippines-U.S. alliance within the changing U.S. grand strategies from Barrack Obama’s rebalancing to Asia to President Joe Biden’s continuance of the Trump Administration’s strategic competition with China. Upon President Obama’s announcement of the rebalancing policy in 2011, the Philippines already figured prominently in the American security agenda in Asia, particularly with the intensification of the Philippines-China territorial dispute in the South China Sea. In 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte effected a major shift in Philippine foreign policy by distancing the country from the U.S. and gravitating toward China. The Trump Administration, however, saw the Philippines as a crucial ally in its geostrategic competition with China. Consequently, Washington adopted a policy of strategic patience to bring Duterte onside the U.S. rather than pushing him to China’s embrace. This scheme stabilized the two countries’ security relations and ensured the Philippines’ commitment to the U.S. system of bilateral alliances. In conclusion, the article argues that given the Philippines’ close security ties with the U.S. that often clash with China’s strategic interests and close Philippines-China diplomatic/economic relations, it will be difficult and challenging for President Duterte to pursue an independent foreign policy.

The Advent, Evolution Termination of the 1947 Military Bases Agreement and Its Influences to Philippine Military Foreign Policy

The history of the Military Bases Agreement (MBA) between the US and the Philippines brings a dynamic view of Philippine foreign policy. The Philippine foreign policy has to change to respond to the changing needs of the changing times. Among the areas of foreign policy that is very significant is the military aspect as it provides social, economic advantages. This study aims to provide a historical overview of the MBA and its implication towards the adoption of a military foreign policy of the Philippines from 1947-1991. Explanations on how the MBA has shaped the Philippine foreign policies from 1947-1991 were provided. This historical study utilized the descriptive-analytical-narrative method and theory of military dependency. The following are the major findings of the study: 1) The Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union became a major factor in the establishment of military bases in the Philippines; 2) The massive task of rebuilding a war-devastated nation was aided by extensive American assistance. However, the Philippines faced a major problem of Communist insurgency dominated by the Hukbong Mapagpalaya sa Bayan (HMB) guerrillas; 3) The MBA had undergone several amendments during the administrations of Manuel A. Roxas to Corazon C. Aquino, and; 4) The MBA paved way for the signing of more recent military agreements such as the the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

Alliance Embeddedness: Rodrigo Duterte and the Resilience of the US–Philippine Alliance

AbstractIn 2016, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte pledged to radically reorient Philippine foreign policy by separating from Manila's longtime ally the United States. Yet, this vaunted break with America has failed to manifest. Joint US–Philippine military activities have continued with President Duterte even singing the praises of his American partners. To understand how this about-face in Manila occurred, I conducted a detailed analysis of the first eighteen months of the Duterte administration. Drawing on primary sources and interviews with government officials from both countries, I argue that the continued vitality of the US–Philippine alliance stems not from disenchantment with China nor personal relationship between Duterte and Trump, but rather from an underlying institutional affinity engendered over decades of defense cooperation. Specifically, institutionalized cooperation within the alliance has cultivated a strong reservoir of support for the alliance within key institutions inside the Philippine government. This case not only highlights the development of the Duterte administration but also illustrates the wider ability of alliances to weather political discord by cultivating support within national bureaucracies.

Along the Academe‐Policy Frontier: A Tribute to Aileen S.P. Baviera

Along the Academe‐Policy Frontier: A Tribute to Aileen S.P. Baviera

Politics, Policy, and the Pandemic

Covid-19 represents the ultimate “black swan” of our time—a catastrophic event that has put the entire world in a tailspin. With no clear in sight, this devastating pandemic that has claimed lives, paralyzed economies, and literally stopped everyone and everything in suspended animation. Politics and policy, however, have been pushed to the frontlines of this global pandemic. Responses of states and international organizations have so far revealed a varying mix of political considerations and informed policy. Some governments, particularly those that are relatively more successful in mitigating the impact of the pandemic, faithfully resorted to past learnings as they were more prepared and informed. In contrast, a few governments continued to resort to politicking, repression, and denial despite the harrowing consequences of Covid-19 to the lives of their people. This variation in responses to this pandemic is clearly seen in Asia. In the coming months, we can expect that states will continue to swing in the pendulum of politics (bad policy) or policy (good politics) as they move forward in dealing with Covid-19. APP hopes to be a venue for discussions on what the repercussions of Covid-19 on politics and policy in Asia. In the meantime, this April issue contains a fascinating mix of relevant research topics and themes. On the surface, the theme of fostering strategic relations between small states as discussed by the articles authored by Nicole Jenne as well as Sofie Hamdi and Mohammad Salman. Jenne discusses the potential of Chile as a diplomatic bridge between Southeast Asia and Latin America while Hamdi and Salman problematized the foreign policy choices of small Gulf states as they balance their relations between two “elephants”—Iran and Saudi Arabia. Scholars focusing on small and middle power diplomacy is a breath of research fresh air since major powers continue to occupy the bulk of the international relations literature. It is a pleasure to feature these two articles as we expect that small states have and will continue to matter in the future. A second recurring theme for this issue is democratization and national identity. The rest of the original articles representing research from India, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines covered this broad area by examining different aspects of political reform, electoral politics, and national integration. These studies are ripe with significant recommendations for public policy that other countries can benefit and learn from. In future APP issues, these aspects of politics and public policy will necessarily have to be re-thought given the likely consequences of Covid-19. Finally, I write this Editor’s introduction with a heavy heart. For the past decade, APP has been under the caring and effective leadership of its editor-in-chief, Aileen San Pablo-Baviera. We lost Aileen due to complications from Covid-19 in March 21, 2020. As a tireless and diligent worker, she selflessly continued to work on the April issue until her last days. Known primarily as the preeminent Filipino Sinologist, the entire world lost a prolific scholar and an academic leader. In the Praxis issue, APP pays tribute to its editor-in-chief through a biographical essay. Janus Nolasco, a colleague of Aileen in the University of the Philippines Asian Center, was on point in titling the essay A World Without Fences. It truly represented Aileen’s life work—as a rare scholar who traversed the worlds of academe and policy with ease, grace, humility, and rigor. But it also exemplified her vision that guided her multiple roles: a longing for a peaceful, stable, and kinder world. This tribute to Aileen also re-publishes her last works. The two essays focused on how to improve Philippine foreign and security policy in the midst of strategic uncertainty. Until the end, there was no doubt that Aileen remained true to her devotion as a Filipino. We thank the original publishers of these pieces—the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific and the East Asia Forum—for generously allowing us to republish Aileen’s essays. The entire Editorial Team of APP dedicates this issue in the memory and honor of Aileen San Pablo-Baviera.

Analisis Kebijakan Luar Negeri Filipina Terhadap Cina Terkait Sengketa Laut Tiongkok Selatan pada Masa Duterte

Artikel ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi dan menggambarkan proses pengambilan kebijakan luar negeri Filipina terhadap agresivitas Cina terkait sengketa kedua negara di Laut Cina Selatan. Kebijakan luar negeri Filipina pada era pemerintahan Duterte berbeda daripada pemerintahan sebelumnya. Penulis menggunakan teori pembuatan kebijakan rational choice model dari Charles Kegley dan Shanon Blanton. Sementara metodenya adalah kualitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif dan menggunakan data sekunder. Dalam pembahasan penulis menemukan bahwa para aktor pembuat kebijakan, terutama Duterte dan didukung oleh Senat, memiliki motivasi mempertahankan kepentingan ekonomi dan keamanan yang besar terhadap Tiongkok. Oleh karena itu, pada tahap pemilihan kebijakan, Filipina mengeluarkan kebijakan rasional yang bersifat kooperatif di dalam menghadapi agresivitas Tiongkok.

THE PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT’S RHETORIC ON JAPAN-CHINA RIVALRY AND INDEPENDENT FOREIGN POLICY

This study examines the Japan-China rivalry and independent foreign policy (IFP) rhetoric of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Using both AntConc (concordance program) and conventional reading, this study identifies the themes and aspects as to how he used words related to China and Japan in his speeches. Data analysis reveals that his rhetoric centered on several themes, such as historical relations, brotherly and friendly relations, strategic partnership, China as an economic and military superpower, development assistance, and as point of reference, among others. Contrary to what Duterte portrays as IFP, the study shows that even after two years into his presidency, nothing has really changed in the Philippines. His promise of pursuing an IFP policy has neither taken the form of a concrete plan nor materialized as a policy. This paper argues that the ambivalence in Duterte’s foreign policy rhetoric is just a strategy to accommodate China’s influence while maintaining his nationalist narrative. His IFP rhetoric is just a manifestation of continuing dependency to outside powers. No matter how different it initially seemed to be from previous administrations in the way that it entertains other powers such as China and Japan apart from the US, it still cannot be considered as IFP.Keywords: Independent foreign policy, Japan-China rivalry, Philippine foreign policy under Duterte, presidential speech analysis, Rodrigo DuterteCite as: Garcia, L.S.S. (2018). The Philippine president’s rhetoric on Japan-China rivalry and independent foreign policy. Journal of Nusantara Studies, 3(2),1-16.http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol3iss2pp1-16

Explaining the Duterte Administration’s Appeasement Policy on China: The Power of Fear

This article examines the reason behind the dramatic shift in Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte Administration. His predecessor, president Benigno Aquino, vigorously challenged China’s expansive territorial claim in the South China Sea throughout his six-year term. However, president Rodrigo Duterte’s actions and pronouncements are undoing the former president’s geopolitical agenda of balancing China’s expansion in the disputed waters. He distances the Philippines from the United States, its long-standing treaty ally, and gravitates toward China. This stance aims to earn goodwill with China so that the Philippines can avail itself of enormous aids and loans from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This stemmed from this administration’s fear that the Philippines would not benefit from China’s emergence as an economic power. Nevertheless, by appeasing an expansionist power, the Philippines becomes complicit to China’s long-term strategy of maritime expansion to push the United States out of East Asia. In conclusion, the article warns that the Duterte Administration might end up losing the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea and the confidence and trust of its allies and security partners. This administration might also leave the public coffers empty and dry because of China’s reneging on its commitment to fund the Philippines’ massive infrastructure-building program, labeled “Build, Build, and Build.”

The South China Sea Arbitral Award amidst Shifting Philippine Foreign Policy

Abstract The South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal award was an overwhelming legal and moral victory for the Philippines. The arbitral tribunal categorically declared that China’s nine-dash line claim is incompatible with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. However, China’s defiance of the ruling and refusal to honor and implement the award pose a serious challenge to Manila’s victory. In addition, the astonishing shift in Philippine foreign policy direction, alongside the change in government, flouts the arbitral award and undermines previous State policies assertive of Philippine maritime and territorial claims in the South China Sea. The current direction of Philippine-China relations under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has demonstrated positive signs of improvement compared with acrimonious bilateral relations pursued by the previous Aquino administration. The arbitral award has largely been set aside in the government’s effort to restore amicable economic and diplomatic relations with China. This paper examines the South China Sea arbitral award amidst shifting Philippine foreign policy under the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte.

The South China Sea Arbitral Award: Evolving Post‐Arbitration Strategies, Implications and Challenges

On 12 July 2016, the Arbitral Tribunal formed under Annex VII of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) issued its award on the case brought by the Philippines against China over maritime claims in the South China Sea. The landmark victory categorically declared that China's nine‐dash line claim is incompatible with the UNCLOS. The award was also an authoritative interpretation of various important issues relating to UNCLOS including the legal status of maritime features, historic rights, and the duty to preserve the marine environment. However, despite the final and binding nature of the arbitral ruling, China continues to reject the ruling. The shift in Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte administration has led to setting aside the ruling in order to restore amicable diplomatic and economic relations with China. This Special Issue of Asian Politics & Policy explores and revisits the South China Sea arbitral award from a multi‐faceted perspective, focusing on challenges, implications, and post‐arbitration strategies.