El Nino-Southern Oscillation Phases Research Articles

Decline and recovery of pelagic acoustic backscatter following El Niño events in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Climatic variability exerts enormous pressures on the structure and function of open ocean ecosystems. Although the responses of primary producers and top predators to these pressures are being increasingly well-documented, little is known about how midtrophic communities respond to oceanographic and climatic variability. We address this knowledge gap through a study of the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local environmental conditions on acoustic proxies of the midtrophic community in the Gulf of California, Mexico. We quantified the intensity and distribution of nighttime acoustic backscatter (120 kHz) in the upper 200 m of the water column during 10 oceanographic cruises (2007–2017) and described its response to environmental variability using generalized additive models. ENSO conditions were the strongest drivers of variability in backscatter after accounting for seasonal increases in backscatter with sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration. Acoustic backscatter in the central Gulf of California decreased significantly during the positive phase of ENSO. Following El Niño events in 2009–10 and 2015–16, mean backscatter declined by an order of magnitude and remained depressed for more than two years before recovering to pre-El Niño levels. Scattering layer density increased with total backscatter, likely an influential factor determining prey availability for pelagic predators. Our findings demonstrate large and sustained impacts of El Niño on the midtrophic community in the Gulf of California and further highlight the need to better understand the responses of midtrophic communities to environmental variability.

Evaluation of Energy Potential from Coffee Pulp in a Hydrothermal Power Market through System Dynamics: The Case of Colombia

Colombia has abundant solar, wind, and biomass resources for energy production with non-conventional renewable energy (NCREs) sources. However, the current participation of NCREs is negligible in the electricity mix of the country, which has historically depended on hydroelectric plants. Meteorological phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), threaten the energy supply during periods of drought, and the generation of energy using fossil fuels is necessary to offset the hydric deficit. Since Colombia is one of the largest coffee producers in the world, this study used system dynamics to evaluate the energy potential from cherry coffee pulp and analyze trends in the energy supply for different energy sources in scenarios of climatic vulnerability. First, the causal relationship of the system was identified, and the key variables of the model were projected. Then, the behavior of the system was evaluated by simulating a 120-month period. The results showed a generation potential from coffee pulp of 177 GWh per year and a power generation of 11,250 GWh and 7537 GWh with solar and wind resources, respectively, by 2030. Finally, it was confirmed that including new renewable resources is a key factor in supporting hydraulic generation in the warm phase of ENSO while reducing thermal generation dependence.

The Orinoco low‐level jet during El Niño–Southern Oscillation

AbstractThis study shows the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the seasonal and diurnal variability of the Orinoco low‐level jet (OLLJ) during the December–January–February (DJF) season. Results show changes in the occurrence and intensity of the OLLJ winds during the phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) in relation to Neutral conditions. During El Niño (La Niña), the OLLJ days decrease (increase) over the mid and exit of the OLLJ corridor. Furthermore, the mean wind vertical profiles (and the intensity of the diurnal cycle) decrease (increase) with values ranging from 5 to 9 m·s−1. We highlight that the OLLJ days decrease (increase) in January (February) during El Niño (La Niña) up to 24% (15%). These changes are modulated by the pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical high and the near‐equatorial trough regions that decreases (increases) during El Niño (La Niña) and thus induces a decrease (increase) of the OLLJ winds. Moreover, the water vapour flux and precipitation reduce during both phases of ENSO along the OLLJ corridor. This work shows new insights on the OLLJ features during ENSO, which contributes to improving our understanding of the processes that influence the hydro‐climatology of northern South America.

The Asymmetric Connection of SST in the Tasman Sea with Respect to the Opposite Phases of ENSO in Austral Summer

This study uses linear regression and composite analyses to identify a pronounced asymmetric connection of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tasman Sea with the two opposite phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during austral summer. In El Niño years, the SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the Tasman Sea exhibit a dipolar pattern with weak warmth in the northwest and modest cooling in the southeast, while during La Niña years the SSTAs exhibit a basin-scale warmth with greater amplitude. Investigations into the underlying mechanism suggest that this asymmetry arises from a mechanism related to oceanic heat transport, specifically the anomalous Ekman meridional heat transport induced by the zonal wind stress anomalies, rather than the surface heat fluxes on the air-sea interface. Further analysis reveals that the asymmetry of oceanic heat transport between El Niño and La Niña years is driven by the asymmetric atmospheric circulation over the Tasman Sea stimulated by the asymmetric diabatic heating in the tropical Pacific between the two opposite ENSO phases.

Climatic risk zoning for potential occurrence of cacao moniliasis disease in Northeastern Brazil under the influence of ENSO phases

Air temperature and relative humidity are the main drivers of many fungal diseases, such as moniliasis (Moniliophthora roreri), which affects cocoa production worldwide. This disease occurs in some Latin American countries; however, it has not yet occurred in Brazil. Moniliasis could cause serious damage to the Brazilian cocoa production if present in the country. Therefore, to know the risks of moniliasis to cocoa production in the largest Brazilian producing region, in the state of Bahia, this study investigated the climatic favorability for the occurrence of this disease in this state, by defining and mapping the climatic risks and by assessing the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases on it. Historical daily temperature and relative humidity data (1988–2018) from 28 weather stations of the national weather network in the state of Bahia were obtained. The risk index for cocoa moniliasis occurrence (RICM) was determined, based on the number of days five levels of favorability. Spatial interpolation of seasonal and annual RICM was done through a multiple linear regression method using latitude, longitude, and altitude as predictor variables. The maps showed a high spatial and temporal RICM variability in the state of Bahia, with the highest risk for moniliasis occurrence in the eastern part of the state, where most producing areas are located. The ENSO phase showed to influence cocoa moniliasis occurrence, with the years with a transition between El Niño and Neutral phases being the most critical for this disease in majority of assessed locations. These results show that cocoa producers in the state of Bahia, Brazil, should be concerned with moniliasis occurrence as a potential disease for their crops, mainly in the traditional producing regions and when ENSO is in a transition from El Niño to neutral.

Groundwater response to climate variability in Mediterranean type climate zones with comparisons of California (USA) and Portugal

Aquifers are a fundamental source of freshwater, yet they are particularly vulnerable in coastal regions with Mediterranean type climate, due to both climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This comparative study examines the interrelationships between ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, groundwater levels and precipitation in coastal aquifers of California (USA) and Portugal. Piezometric and climate indices (1989–2019) are analyzed using singular spectral analysis and wavelet transform methods. Singular spectral analysis identifies signals consistent with the six dominant climate patterns: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) in California, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCAND) in Portugal. Lower-frequency oscillations have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns, with PDO (52.75%) and NAO (46.25%) on average accounting for the largest amount of groundwater level variability. Wavelet coherences show nonstationary covariability between climate patterns and groundwater levels in distinct period bands: 4–8 years for PDO, 2–4 years for ENSO, 1–2 years for PNA, 5–8 years for NAO, 2–4 years for EA and 2–8 years for SCAND. Wavelet coherence patterns also show that coupled climate patterns (NAO+ EA– and paired PDO and ENSO phases) are associated with major drought periods in both the Mediterranean climate zones.

Evolution of the intensity and duration of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge for the period 1979–2020

Abstract. The intensity and position of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge is evaluated as a function of equivalent latitude over the period 1979–2020 on three isentropic levels (475, 550, and 675 K) from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. The study also includes an analysis of the onset and breakup dates of the polar vortex, which are determined from wind thresholds (e.g., 15.2, 20, and 25 m s−1) along the vortex edge. The vortex edge is stronger in late winter, during September–October–November, with the period of strongest intensity occurring later at the lowermost level. During the same period, we observe a lower variability of the edge position. A long-term increase in the vortex edge intensity and break-up date is observed during 1979–1999, linked to the increase in the ozone hole. A long-term decrease in the vortex onset date related to the 25 m s−1 wind threshold is also observed at 475 K during this period. The solar cycle and to a lower extent the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate the interannual evolution of the strength of the vortex edge and the vortex breakup dates. A stronger vortex edge and longer vortex duration are observed in solar minimum (minSC) years, with the QBO and ENSO further modulating the solar cycle influence, especially at 475 and 550 K: during west QBO (wQBO) phases, the difference between vortex edge intensity for minSC and maxSC years is smaller than during east QBO (eQBO) phases. The polar vortex edge is stronger and lasts longer for maxSC/wQBO years than for maxSC/eQBO years. ENSO has a weaker impact but the vortex edge is somewhat stronger during cold ENSO phases for both minSC and maxSC years.

El Niño Southern Oscillation, monsoon anomaly, and childhood diarrheal disease morbidity in Nepal.

Climate change is adversely impacting the burden of diarrheal diseases. Despite significant reduction in global prevalence, diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies have shown that diarrheal disease is associated with meteorological conditions but the role of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon anomaly is less understood. We obtained 13 years (2002-2014) of diarrheal disease data from Nepal and investigated how the disease rate is associated with phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, vs. ENSO neutral) monsoon rainfall anomaly (below normal, above normal, vs. normal), and changes in timing of monsoon onset, and withdrawal (early, late, vs. normal). Monsoon season was associated with a 21% increase in diarrheal disease rates (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.16-1.27). El Niño was associated with an 8% reduction in risk while the La Niña was associated with a 32% increase in under-5 diarrheal disease rates. Likewise, higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall was associated with increased rates of diarrheal disease, with considerably higher rates observed in the mountain region (IRR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.19-1.92). Our findings suggest that under-5 diarrheal disease burden in Nepal is significantly influenced by ENSO and changes in seasonal monsoon dynamics. Since both ENSO phases and monsoon can be predicted with considerably longer lead time compared to weather, our findings will pave the way for the development of more effective early warning systems for climate sensitive infectious diseases.

Arabian Sea Aerosol-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall relationship and its modulation by El-Nino Southern Oscillation

The intensity of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over Central India (CI) is known to be positively correlated with the dust aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea (AS) on short time scales of about a week. However, global oscillations such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate both the rainfall over India and aerosol loading over the AS. This study uses long-term satellite-based aerosol and gridded rainfall datasets to explore the correlation between AS aerosol and CI rainfall and their relationship to ENSO. It is found that the highest correlation is during El-Nino (0.53), followed by Normal (0.44) and La-Nina (0.34) years, closely following the overall dust aerosol loading over the AS. Spatially, irrespective of the phase of ENSO, the high aerosol loading conditions are associated with increased winds over the AS, shifting eastward towards the Indian mainland and enhancing rainfall over CI and elsewhere across the Indian landmass. In contrast, the low aerosol loading conditions over the AS are associated with reduced winds, shifting westward away from the Indian mainland, suppressing rainfall over CI. In response to anthropogenic climate change, the El-Nino-like conditions are likely to increase in the future, making the dust aerosol-induced monsoon rainfall enhancement/modulation significant.

From Phase Transition to Interdecadal Changes of ENSO, Altered by the Lower Stratospheric Ozone

This paper shows more evidence for the existing spatial–temporal synchronization of the air surface temperature and pressure within the lower stratospheric ozone, which is unevenly distributed over the globe. The focus of this study is put on the region of formation and manifestation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Statistical analysis of data (covering the period 1900–2019) displays a well pronounced covariance of ozone at 70 hPa with (i) Nino3.4 index, (ii) air surface temperature, and (iii) sea level pressure, in each grid-point with spatial resolution of 5° in latitude and longitude. The ozone impact could be found at different time scales—from interannual (altering the ENSO phase transition) to interdecadal. Moreover, the centers of action of ozone on the sea level temperature and pressure are positioned at different places, depending on the temporal scale of variability—from the tropical Central Pacific—at interannual and interdecadal, to extratropics—at subdecadal time scales. We show also that positive ozone anomalies at 70 hPa trigger a cooling of the sea surface, with a delay of 9 record’s time intervals. The ozone depletion, on the other side, is followed by a sea level warming with a delay of 1–2 record’s time intervals.

Early summer surface air temperature variability over Pakistan and the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections

AbstractEarly summer (May–June) is the season where the surface air temperature (SAT) variability is largest and may result in extreme temperature conditions over Pakistan. Therefore, we analysed the early summer interannual SAT variability over Pakistan for the period 1981–2018 using observational dataset and model simulations. We noted that upper‐level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Pakistan, which are associated with upper to the middle tropospheric descending motion, favour clear skies with an increase in net shortwave radiation that leads to extreme surface warming over the region. Moreover, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on Niño3.4 SST index is negatively associated with SAT anomalies over Pakistan. The cold ENSO phase favours the positive geopotential height anomalies due to the strengthening of the Walker circulation that enhance the sinking motion and result in less cloudiness leading to the extreme higher surface temperature conditions over Pakistan, while the opposite happens in the warm ENSO phase. Moreover, the Saudi‐KAU Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) simulated large‐scale patterns that are in good agreement with the observations. Sensitivity experiments with the AGCM confirm that cold SST anomalies in the ENSO region significantly favour above‐normal SAT anomalies over Pakistan, while the opposite happens in the warm ENSO phase. These results are important to understand and potentially predict regional heatwaves over the South Asian region, particularly over Pakistan.

A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation

The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.

Dynamics of ENSO Phase–Locking and Its Biases in Climate Models

AbstractThe contributions of different oceanic feedbacks to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase‐locking are examined by deriving ENSO dynamics based on the recharge‐discharge framework. In observations, the significant winter preference of the ENSO peak is determined by a strong seasonal modulation of SST growth rate, which is controlled by the zonal advective and thermodynamic feedbacks. However, the majority of climate models fail to simulate ENSO phase‐locking because the contribution of zonal advective feedback to the seasonal modulation of the SST growth rate is much smaller compared to observations. The weak annual cycle of the SST‐current coupling coefficient and small annual mean of the negative climatological zonal SST gradient are two factors contributing to the weak‐biased seasonality of zonal advective feedback. Further analysis shows that the Niño3.4 SSTA has better phase‐locking performance than Niño3 SSTA in the climate models due to the better simulation of zonal advection feedback in the Niño3.4 region.

Seasonal Temperature Extremes in the North Eurasian Regions Depending on ENSO Phase Transitions

Seasonal anomalies of surface air temperature were analyzed for the North Eurasian regions in mid-latitudes using long-term data from the end of the 19th century with an assessment of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. In particular, temperature anomalies in the spring–summer months for the European (ER) and Asian (AR) Russian regions for different phase transitions of the ENSO phenomena were estimated using the Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 indices. The largest frequency of the extremely high-temperature and drought conditions in spring–summer months in ER was detected for years starting in the El Niño phase with the transition to the La Niña phase at the end of the year. Such conditions were realized in ER in summer 2010 (“Russian heatwave”). The corresponding largest frequency of high temperature in AR was obtained for conditions with the continuation of the El Niño phase during the whole year. Such conditions in AR were noted, in particular, in the summer of 2015, with an extremely high temperature and extremely low precipitation in the Lake Baikal basin.

SEAS5 skilfully predicts late wet‐season precipitation in Central American Dry Corridor excelling in Costa Rica and Nicaragua

AbstractBetter drought preparedness is critically needed in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Seasonal forecasts can be used to build this preparedness but need localized evaluations to ensure they are relevant and useful. This study provides a CADC‐focused assessment of the SEAS5 seasonal forecasting system produced by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We evaluate SEAS5 predictions of the mean, variability, and extremes of precipitation across the CADC at 1–7‐month lead times. We assess differences in regional forecast quality across seasons and lead times by evaluating spatial and temporal associations with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, topography, and continentality. Results show that SEAS5 precipitation forecasts often have better skill primarily during the mid to late wet season (July–October). In these months, low/normal precipitation forecasts outperform the climatological mean (1982–2016) up to 5‐ or 6‐month lead times in some subregions. Forecast skill is often worse, however, for predicting precipitation during the early wet season, primarily in June. Forecast skill varies spatially across the region, with higher skill concentrated in the southeast (Costa Rica and Nicaragua). Forecast skill is significantly related to continentality and topography, and together these factors account for at least a quarter of the spatial variance in annual skill at all lead times. Forecast accuracy varies depending on ENSO phase: predictions are often worse in El Niño (warm ENSO) periods during the early wet season when ENSO also has a weaker association with cumulative precipitation relative to the later wet season. SEAS5 could be a particularly useful tool during the second half of the wet season in the southeast CADC, skilfully alerting of upcoming precipitation variability with over 3‐month lead times.

Sudden stratospheric warmings during El Niño and La Niña: sensitivity to atmospheric model biases

Abstract. The number of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) per year is affected by the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), yet there are discrepancies between the observed and modelled relationship. We investigate how systematic model biases in atmospheric winds and temperatures may affect the ENSO–SSW connection. A two-step bias correction process is applied to the troposphere, stratosphere, or full atmosphere of an atmospheric general circulation model. ENSO-type sensitivity experiments are then performed by adding El Niño and La Niña sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies to the model's prescribed SSTs, to reveal the impact of differing climatologies on the ENSO–SSW teleconnection. The number of SSWs per year is overestimated in the control run, and this statistic is improved when biases are reduced in both the stratosphere and troposphere. The seasonal cycle of SSWs is also improved by the bias corrections. The composite SSW responses in the stratospheric zonal wind, geopotential height, and surface response are well represented in both the control and bias-corrected runs. The model response of SSWs to ENSO phase is more linear than in observations, in line with previous modelling studies, and this is not changed by the reduced biases. However, the ratio of wave 1 events to wave 2 events as well as the tendency to have more wave 1 events during El Niño years than La Niña years is improved in the bias-corrected runs.

Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea Regulated by ENSO Phase

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea (SCS) have dramatic impacts on local ecosystems, fisheries, and aquacultures. Our results show that SCS MHWs were strongly regulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a distinct life cycle during 1982–2018. Based on the ENSO-associated sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) warming peaks in the SCS, we can classify SCS MHWs into three categories: El Niño-P1 during the first warming peak of El Niño from September to the following February, El Niño-P2 during the second warming peak of El Niño from the following June to September, and La Niña-P1 during the single warming peak of La Niña from the following February to May. The three types of SCS MHWs are all affected by the lower-level enhanced anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP), but their physical mechanisms are quite different. In El Niño-P1, SCS MHWs are mostly induced by enhanced net downward shortwave radiation and reduced latent heat flux loss over the southwestern and northern SCS, respectively. In El Niño-P2, SCS MHWs are primarily attributed to weaker entrainment cooling caused by a local enhanced anticyclone and stronger Ekman downwelling in the central-northern SCS. However, in La Niña-P1, SCS MHWs are mainly contributed by the reduced latent heat loss due to the weaker WNP anticyclone centered east of the Philippines on the pentad time scale. The distinct spatial distributions of MHWs show phase locking with ENSO-associated SCS SSTA warming, which provides a potential seasonal forecast of SCS MHWs according to the ENSO phase.

Janela ótima de semeadura da soja ajustada à variabilidade climática baseada em El Nino-Oscilação Sul utilizando-se modelagem agrometeorológica

ABSTRACT Determining the optimal sowing window (OSW) based on climate variability associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can provide valuable information for agricultural planning in the tropics. This study aimed to calibrate, evaluate and apply the CROPGRO-Soybean model for determining the OSW across the ENSO phases for soybean-producing areas in the Pará State, northern Brazil. First, the model was calibrated and evaluated using experimental data collected in the field, between 2006 and 2009. In this process, the model estimates showed a good agreement with the observed data for soybean phenology, growth and yield, demonstrating potential to simulate the crop yield in this part of the Amazon. After calibration, the model was used in the seasonal mode to simulate 18 planting dates, over 39 years and in three locations. The simulated yields were divided into three ENSO phases. The set of sowing dates that showed a high frequency (> 80 %) of yields above 3,500 kg ha−1 integrated the OSW for each location and ENSO phases. The OSW duration differed between locations and ENSO phases, varying more during La Nina than El Nino events. However, regardless of the location or ENSO phase, late sowing was more suitable, because, besides favoring a greater frequency of good climate conditions for the development, growth and high yields, it also favors a lower risk of rainfall during the harvest period.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Transatlantic Slave Trade

Abstract The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the transatlantic slave trade (TAST) is examined using the Slave Voyages dataset and several reconstructed ENSO indices. The ENSO indices are used as a proxy for West African rainfall and temperature. In the Sahel, the El Niño (warm) phase of ENSO is associated with less rainfall and warmer temperatures, whereas the La Niña (cold) phase of ENSO is associated with more rainfall and cooler temperatures. The association between ENSO and the TAST is weak but statistically significant at a 2-yr lag. In this case, El Niño (drier and warmer) years are associated with a decrease in the export of enslaved Africans. The response of the TAST to El Niño is explained in terms of the societal response to agricultural stresses brought on by less rainfall and warmer temperatures. ENSO-induced changes to the TAST are briefly discussed in light of climate-induced movements of peoples in centuries past and the drought-induced movement of peoples in the Middle East today. Significance Statement The transatlantic slave trade was driven by economic and political forces, subject to the vagaries of the weather; it spanned two hemispheres and four continents and lasted more than 400 years. In this study we show that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its proxy association with West African rainfall and temperature, are significantly associated with the number of enslaved Africans that were transported from West Africa to the Americas. Lessons learned from the effects of weather and climate on the transatlantic slave trade reverberate today: extreme weather and climate change will continue to catalyze and amplify human conflict and migrations.

South Pacific Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT): variability and impact on the French Polynesian climate

The South Pacific Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is an elongated trough that appears in summer monthly averaged maps of the upper tropospheric flow over the ocean. We provide the first comprehensive description of the South Pacific TUTT and analyze its impact on the regional climate with 42 yr (1979-2020) of monthly data from ERA5, radiosonde, rain, keraunic data, and lightning flash rate from the Optical Transient Detector-Lightning Imaging Sensor. The data confirm the presence of the TUTT along a southeast-northwest axis from November to May. Located between 100 and 400 hPa, the TUTT is a cold-core with a relative vorticity minimum and a negative geopotential anomaly. Divergent, ascending flow with high relative humidity is found south and west of the TUTT axis, while convergent, descending flow with low relative humidity is observed north and east of the TUTT axis. The seasonal and long-term impacts of the TUTT on the local and regional climate is dependent on its location and its strength. The existence of the TUTT in the South Pacific is strongly dependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, being stronger during a strong negative ENSO phase and disappearing from French Polynesia during a strong positive ENSO phase. Genesis of tropical disturbances east of 180°W is possible only if the TUTT is located east of 120°W. The environmental conditions associated with the TUTT, along with lightning and rainfall data from 3 sites in French Polynesia, show that lightning flash rates are higher during a negative ENSO phase than during a positive ENSO phase.