Evaluation of Energy Potential from Coffee Pulp in a Hydrothermal Power Market through System Dynamics: The Case of Colombia

Abstract

Colombia has abundant solar, wind, and biomass resources for energy production with non-conventional renewable energy (NCREs) sources. However, the current participation of NCREs is negligible in the electricity mix of the country, which has historically depended on hydroelectric plants. Meteorological phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), threaten the energy supply during periods of drought, and the generation of energy using fossil fuels is necessary to offset the hydric deficit. Since Colombia is one of the largest coffee producers in the world, this study used system dynamics to evaluate the energy potential from cherry coffee pulp and analyze trends in the energy supply for different energy sources in scenarios of climatic vulnerability. First, the causal relationship of the system was identified, and the key variables of the model were projected. Then, the behavior of the system was evaluated by simulating a 120-month period. The results showed a generation potential from coffee pulp of 177 GWh per year and a power generation of 11,250 GWh and 7537 GWh with solar and wind resources, respectively, by 2030. Finally, it was confirmed that including new renewable resources is a key factor in supporting hydraulic generation in the warm phase of ENSO while reducing thermal generation dependence.