Phase Of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Research Articles

A 2-decade (1988–2009) record of diatom fluxes in the Mauritanian coastal upwelling: impact of low-frequency forcing and a two-step shift in the species composition

Abstract. Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems (EBUEs) are among the most productive marine regions in the world's oceans. Understanding the degree of interannual to decadal variability in the Mauritania upwelling system is crucial for the prediction of future changes of primary productivity and carbon sequestration in the Canary Current EBUE as well as in similar environments. A multiyear sediment trap experiment was conducted at the mooring site CBmeso (“Cape Blanc mesotrophic”, ca. 20∘ N, ca. 20∘40′ W) in the highly productive coastal waters off Mauritania. Here, we present results on fluxes of diatoms and the species-specific composition of the assemblage for the time interval between March 1988 and June 2009. The temporal dynamics of diatom populations allows the proposal of three main intervals: (i) early 1988–late 1996, (ii) 1997–1999, and (iii) early 2002–mid 2009. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) appears to be an important driver of the long-term dynamics of diatom population. The long-term AMO-driven trend is interrupted by the occurrence of the strong 1997 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The extraordinary shift in the relative abundance of benthic diatoms in May 2002 suggests the strengthening of offshore advective transport within the uppermost layer of filament waters and in the subsurface and in deeper and bottom-near layers. It is hypothesized that the dominance of benthic diatoms was the response of the diatom community to the intensification of the slope and shelf poleward undercurrents. This dominance followed the intensification of the warm phase of AMO and the associated changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Transported valves (siliceous remains) from shallow Mauritanian coastal waters into the bathypelagic should be considered for the calculation and model experiments of bathy- and pelagic nutrients budgets (especially Si), the burial of diatoms, and the paleoenvironmental signal preserved in downcore sediments. Additionally, our 1988–2009 data set contributes to the characterization of the impact of low-frequency climate forcings in the northeastern Atlantic and will be especially helpful for establishing the scientific basis for forecasting and modeling future states of the Canary Current EBUE and its decadal changes.

Interdecadal Variability in Myanmar Rainfall in the Monsoon Season (May–October) Using Eigen Methods

In this study, we investigated the interdecadal variability in monsoon rainfall in the Myanmar region. The gauge-based gridded rainfall dataset of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit version TS4.0 (CRU TS4.0) were used (1950–2019) to investigate the interdecadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall using empirical orthogonal function (EOF), singular value decomposition (SVD), and correlation approaches. The results reveal relatively negative rainfall anomalies during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, whereas strong positive rainfall anomalies were identified for the 1970s and 2010s. The dominant spatial variability mode showed a dipole pattern with a total variance of 47%. The power spectra of the principal component (PC) from EOF revealed a significant peak during decadal timescales (20–30 years). The Myanmar summer monsoon rainfall positively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and negatively correlated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The results reveal that extreme monsoon rainfall (flood) events occurred during the negative phase of the PDO and below-average rainfall (drought) occurred during the positive phase of the PDO. The cold phase (warm phase) of AMO was generally associated with negative (positive) decadal monsoon rainfall. The first SVD mode indicated the Myanmar rainfall pattern associated with the cold and warm phase of the PDO and AMO, suggesting that enhanced rainfall for about 53% of the square covariance fraction was related to heavy rain over the study region except for the central and eastern parts. The second SVD mode demonstrated warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño pattern) and cold SST in the North Atlantic Ocean, implying a rainfall deficit of about 33% of the square covariance fraction, which could be associated with dry El Niño conditions (drought). The third SVD revealed that cold SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (La Niña pattern) caused enhance rainfall with a 6.7% square covariance fraction related to flood conditions. Thus, the extra-subtropical phenomena may affect the average summer monsoon trends over Myanmar by enhancing the cross-equatorial moisture trajectories into the North Atlantic Ocean.

The importance of inter‐basin atmospheric teleconnection in the SST footprint of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over western Pacific

Western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) multidecadal fluctuations are synchronized to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) phenomenon during the instrumental period. The possible mechanism of the inter-basin synchronization of multidecadal SST variability still remains a matter of discussion regarding the roles of external radiative forcing and internal inter-basin interaction. Here we address this issue using simulations of CMIP5 coupled models and a partially coupled model experiment with prescribed SSTs over the North Atlantic. Observational analysis suggests that in association with the warm AMO phase, prominent SST warming occurs over the western Pacific, accompanied by anomalous low pressures and ascending motion that maintain the warm SST anomalies through positive feedback of local air–sea interaction. The upward motion in the western Pacific corresponds to a significant intensification of Pacific zonal Walker circulation, which is coupled with an increase in the zonal gradient of atmospheric temperature aloft. The CMIP5 model simulated externally forced component of AMO-related changes in western Pacific SST is weak, associated with little change in Pacific zonal circulation showing an absence of anomalous upward motion over the western Pacific, and this is primarily resultant from the negligible changes in the zonal gradient of atmospheric temperature as a direct thermal response to the external radiative forcing. By contrast, the partially coupled model simulation forced by the Atlantic SST variations reasonably reproduces the observed AMO-related changes in western Pacific SST and pan-tropical atmospheric circulation. A surface radiation budget analysis for the western Pacific shows contrasting roles of AMO-related surface incoming solar radiation between the reanalysis/partially coupled model simulation and the forced signal in CMIP5, further confirming the key role of dynamically induced inter-basin atmospheric teleconnection in the multidecadal SST footprint of AMO over the western Pacific.

The Unstable Relationship Between the Precipitation Dipole Pattern in the Tibetan Plateau and Summer NAO

AbstractSubstantial progress has been made in understanding the relationship between summer precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but impacts of the summer NAO on precipitation spatial pattern remain controversial. Using the long‐term observational and reanalysis datasets, we have identified the intimate relationship between summer NAO and TP precipitation dipole pattern has been weakened since the late 1990s. Changes in regional atmospheric circulation induced by the asymmetrical wave propagation structure along the Eurasian continent are responsible for this weakened linkage. Further analyses revealed that the wave propagation anomalies are mainly induced by interdecadal change of summer NAO, which is attributed to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) variations. Moreover, the model simulations derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL AM2.1) provide direct evidence to demonstrate that the AMO phase transition contributes to the unstable relationship between the summer NAO and precipitation dipole pattern in the eastern TP.

Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on interannual relationship between ENSO and East Asian early summer monsoon

AbstractImpact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the interannual relationship between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian early summer monsoon (EAESM) is investigated using observations and community atmosphere model (CAM) outputs. We find that the interannual ENSO–EAESM relationship displays a prominent decadal variation during 1951–2018, which is consistent with the AMO phase change, that is, a high ENSO–EAESM correlation appears during the negative AMO phase, while no significant correlation is found during the positive AMO phase. Further analyses reveal that the AMO‐related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific, rather than in the North Atlantic, modulate the interannual relationship between the El Niño and EAESM. These SSTAs can prolong the existence of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) from the ENSO mature winter to the subsequent early summer, thus affecting the ENSO–EAESM relationship for the El Niño events. In contrast, the AMO modulates the interannual relationship between the La Niña and EAESM through the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The North Atlantic warming‐induced anomalous anticyclone weakens the background cyclone over the western North Pacific during the positive AMO phase, and the mid‐latitude air–sea interaction in the North Pacific also influence the anomalous cyclone. The observed AMO's impact on the interannual relationship between the ENSO and EAESM is confirmed by atmosphere general circulation model simulations using the CAM.

Role of the eastern Pacific-Caribbean Sea SST gradient in the Choco low-level jet variations from 1900-2015

In this article, we propose a novel approach for assessing the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea on the Choco low-level jet (CJ) intensity over the 1900-2015 period that involved defining the interbasin gradient index (IGR) between these 2 oceanic basins. We also studied the effects on rainfall in northwestern South America and Central America in the high CJ season during September-November (SON). Wavelet coherence analysis showed high consistency between CJ and IGR on an interannual scale of 2-8 yr. Precipitation increased over central, western, and northern Colombia and most of Central America during strong CJ (SCJ) and decreased during weak CJ (WCJ) events, which occurred, respectively, in the negative IGR (NIGR) and positive IGR (PIGR) phases. NIGR is associated with anomalous cooling in the tropical Pacific and warming in the equatorial Atlantic; opposite patterns are observed during PIGR. Also, the CJ and the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) showed reversed intensities such that as one strengthened, the other weakened and vice versa. Our results indicate that the low-frequency SST anomalies in the North Atlantic affect the IGR and low-level jet intensities associated with changes in large-scale circulation modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Indeed, positive precipitation anomalies during the SCJ under NIGR were more accentuated and extensive in the warm AMO (WAMO) than in the cold AMO (CAMO) phase. Conversely, negative precipitation anomalies during WCJ under PIGR were more accentuated and extensive in the CAMO than in the WAMO.

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on drought in northern Daxing’an Mountains, Northeast China

The northern Daxing’an Mountains (DM) of China has experienced many serious drought disasters, which caused great losses of agricultural production and people’s lives. However, the temporal and spatial limitations of instrument data have seriously hindered our understanding of drought change and its impact on human culture and natural ecosystems. Here, we analyze the process, patterns and driving mechanism of drought in the northern DM based on a 294-year (CE 1722–2015) tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) drought reconstruction. Drought in the northern DM is consistent with other drought records in the central DM and the eastern and central Mongolian Plateau (MP). In the past 294 years, most of the extreme dry or wet years or periods occurred in the 18th and 20th centuries. There were 2 years and 78.7 years significant (p < 0.01) periodic peaks of drought in northern DM. After the rapid warming in the 1980s, the central and northern DM experienced a wet trend, while the eastern and western MP experienced a drying trend. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays a key role in influencing the drought in the northern DM by modulating the oceanic-atmospheric-land surfaces interaction process and other large-scale circulations. Compared with the effect of AMO on drought patterns in North America, Europe and western MP, the cold phase of AMO is more favorable to drought in northern DM.

Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize): A continuous, annually-resolved record of Common Era sea surface temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and cyclone-controlled run-off

The Holocene (<11.7 kyr BP) is characterized by several periods of distinct climate changes. Some of these climate variations had extensive effects on mankind and coincided with demises of extinct high civilizations. Annually-resolved climate reconstructions will certainly play an increasingly important role in public perception, when applying these past patterns to the recent climate debate. The future consequences of the ongoing climate crisis are still challenging to predict, due to the lack of comprehensive, annually-resolved and continuous sea-surface temperature (SST) data. Our 8.55 m long sediment core from the bottom of the Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize) provides an annually-resolved, continuous and unique south-western Caribbean climate record for the last 1885 years. The varved, “lake-like” sinkhole successions of marine carbonates encompass approximately the entire Common Era (0 CE-modern), a time window, which is key for studying climatic variations and their effects on human society. Our SST record is based on stable isotopes (δ18O) and molecular proxy applications (TEX86). Throughout the Common Era, oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and TEX86 data imply a general SST rise of 0.5 °C and 1.3 °C, respectively, within the south-western Caribbean. The modulation of SST within the Common Era time series likely operated on two different time levels: (1) Solar (e.g., “Gleissberg Cycles”) and volcanic activity triggered climate changes, which in turn induced responses of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Their changing mode of action has been identified as a likely origin of the primary, i.e., centennially scaled SST variability. We suspect long-term positive AMO and NAO modes as the primary key control mechanisms of the Dark Ages Cold and Medieval Warm Period SST patterns. ENSO mode modulation likely exerted primary control on regional SST variability during the Little Ice Age and the Modern Global Warming. (2) Our δ18O data further indicate a striking secondary control on multi-decadal time scales: δ18O variations occur with 32–64 years periodicity. This signal is clearly evidence of SST modulation controlled by AMO phase changes (50–70 years) over almost the entire Common Era. Our carbon isotope record (δ13C) exhibits two remarkable negative anomalies and a long-term up-core decreasing trend. The first excursion (drop of 0.5‰) occurred with the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, which is reconstructed to be a peak time in south-western Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity. This overlap is stressing a potential context between TC activity, enhanced coastal run-off and increased soil-erosion reflected by 13C-depleted carbon isotopes. A second anomaly (>1900 CE) is more likely the result of the “Suess Effect” (anthropogenic impact of the Industrial Revolution on carbon isotopes composition) than another reflection of a TC peak activity interval.

Teleconnections between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and eastern China summer precipitation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

The teleconnection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and eastern China summer precipitation (ECSP) for the modern period has been emphasized in the past few decades. We test its stability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) based on the composite results of the median of six models under the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase3 (PMIP3) framework. During the MCA, ECSP generally increases in positive AMO phases relative to negative phases, similar to the modern teleconnection, while during the LIA, the precipitation tends to reduce over eastern China, especially in the Yangtze River basin. Decomposing the precipitation change on the basis of a diagnostic moisture budget manifests that the different AMO-related precipitation changes stem from distinct effects of circulation-induced moisture convergence during the two periods. Compared with negative AMO phases, positive AMO phases during the MCA show an anomalous lower-level cyclone and upper-level anticyclone over eastern China that facilitate the upward motion anomaly and precipitation excess. During the LIA, a barotropic anticyclone centers in Northeast China and weakens the high-level westerlies over eastern China; this favors descending and upper-level divergence anomalies and leads to precipitation decreases. The distinct convergence changes are determined by differing propagation paths of the AMO-induced teleconnection wave train during the two periods.

Interdecadal modulation of ENSO amplitude by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO)

The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on the ENSO amplitude was investigated through observational analyses. During the past 90 years the interdecadal variability of ENSO intensity is significantly correlated with the AMO. ENSO variability was strengthened (weakened) during a negative (positive) AMO phase. An ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that the thermocline feedback is the main process regulating AMO negative phase dependent ENSO growth characteristic. A further examination indicates that a strengthened atmospheric response to unit SST anomaly, an enhanced thermocline response to unit wind stress forcing and a strengthened subsurface temperature response to unit thermocline variation all contribute to the enhanced thermocline feedback during the negative phase of AMO. Such changes are attributed to the increase of background moisture, the weakening of mean subtropical cell (STC) and increase of upper ocean vertical temperature gradient respectively.

Hurricane trend detection

Because a change in the frequency (number/year) of hurricanes could be a result of climate change, we analyzed the historical record of Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricanes, as well as US continental accumulated cyclone energy to evaluate issues related to trend detection. Hurricane and major hurricane landfall counts exhibited no significant overall trend over 167 years of available data, nor did accumulated cyclone energy over the continental USA over 119 years of available data, although shorter-term trends were evident in all three datasets. Given the χ2 distribution evinced by hurricane and major hurricane counts, we generated synthetic series to test the effect of segment length, demonstrating that shorter series were increasingly likely to exhibit spurious trends. Compared to synthetic data with the same mean, the historical all-storm data were more likely to exhibit short-term trends, providing some evidence for long-term persistence at timescales below 10 years. Because this might be due to known climate modes, we examined the relationship between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and hurricane frequency in light of these short-term excursions. We found that while ratios of hurricane counts with AMO phase matched expectations, statistical tests were less clear due to noise. Over a period of 167 years, we found that an upward trend of roughly 0.7/century is sufficient to be detectable with 80% confidence over the range from 1 to 21 storms/year. Storm energy data 1900–2018 over land were also analyzed. The trend was again zero. The pattern of spurious trends for short segments was again found. Results for AMO periods were similar to count data. Atlantic basin all storms and major storms (1950–2018) did not exhibit any trend over the whole period or after 1990. Major storms 1950–1989 exhibited a significant downward trend. All-storm basin scale storms exhibited short-term trends matching those expected from a Poisson process. A new test for Poisson series was developed based on the 95% distribution of slopes for simulated data across a range of series lengths. Because short data series are inherently likely to yield spurious trends, care is needed when interpreting hurricane trend data.

The Influence of Atlantic Variability on Asian Summer Climate Is Sensitive to the Pattern of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

AbstractWe simulate the response of Asian summer climate to Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies using an intermediate-complexity general circulation model (IGCM4). Experiments are performed with seven individual AMO SST anomalies obtained from CMIP5/PMIP3 global climate models as well as their multimodel mean, globally and over the North Atlantic Ocean only, for both the positive and negative phases of the AMO. During the positive (warm) AMO phase, a Rossby wave train propagates eastward, causing a high pressure and warm and dry surface anomalies over eastern China and Japan. During the negative (cool) phase of the AMO, the midlatitude Rossby wave train is less robust, but the model does simulate a warm and dry South Asian monsoon, associated with the movement of the intertropical convergence zone in the tropical Atlantic. The circulation response and associated temperature and precipitation anomalies are sensitive to the choice of AMO SST anomaly pattern. A comparison between global SST and North Atlantic SST perturbation experiments indicates that East Asian climate anomalies are forced from the North Atlantic region, whereas South Asian climate anomalies are more strongly affected by the AMO-related SST anomalies outside the North Atlantic region. Experiments conducted with different amplitudes of negative and positive AMO anomalies show that the temperature response is linear with respect to SST anomaly but the precipitation response is nonlinear.

Ring-widths of Abies at tree-line ecotone reveal three centuries of early winter season temperature changes in Yunnan, China

Variation in winter temperature is less well understood than in annual and summer temperatures over long timescales, particularly in low-latitude (0–30° N) montane regions with large spatial and topographic heterogeneity. Understanding these variations could be critical for forest manageemnt in these important tree growing regions. We collected tree-ring cores from Yunnan Province in montane southwest China, to determine how winter temperature has varied in the past and to explore its possible drivers in this region. Six highly correlated site chronologies were combined into a long and well-replicated regional composite (RC) chronology. The RC chronology correlated strongest with mean early winter season temperature (EWST) from November to January during 1959–2015. We applied RC chronology to reconstruct EWST from 1653 to 2015. The reconstruction shows five relatively warm historic intervals (1658–1718, 1743–1755, 1771–1791, 1929–1959, and 1995–2015) and cold intervals (1720–1742, 1792–1852, 1860–1883, 1905–1928, and 1960–1994). The 1950s with six anomalous warm seasons and 1980s with five anomalous cold seasons were the warmest and coldest decades, respectively. The EWST reconstruction generally agreed with other winter temperature reconstructions from nearby areas and with historical documents. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) might be a key forcing of multidecadal winter temperature variations in montane southwest China over the past three and half centuries. Both warm and cold temperature periods coincide with respective positive and negative phases of AMO. Besides, the cold intervals during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries may also have been influenced by large volcano eruptions in low-latitude regions of south and east Asia. Our EWST reconstruction not only improves our understanding of the trends and variations of winter climate history, but also supports planning for resilience in conservation, agriculture, and forestry management in montane southwest China into the future.

Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Relationship of the Spring Arctic Oscillation and the Following East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractPrevious studies indicated that spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) can influence the following East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). This study reveals that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has a pronounced modulation of the spring AO–EASM connection. Spring AO has a close relation with the EASM during the negative AMO (−AMO) phase. However, during the positive AMO (+AMO) phase, the spring AO–EASM connection is weak. During the −AMO phase, a marked dipole atmospheric anomaly pattern (with an anticyclonic anomaly over the midlatitudes and a cyclonic anomaly over the subtropics) and a pronounced tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern is formed in the North Pacific during positive spring AO years. The cyclonic anomaly, SST, and precipitation anomalies over the subtropical western North Pacific (WNP) maintain and propagate southwestward in the following summer via a positive air–sea feedback, which further impacts the EASM variation. During the +AMO phase, the Pacific center of the spring AO (i.e., the anticyclonic anomaly over the midlatitudes) is weak. As such, the cyclonic anomaly cannot be induced over the subtropical WNP by the spring AO via wave–mean flow interaction. Hence, the spring AO–EASM connection disappears during the +AMO phase. The AMO impacts the Pacific center of the spring AO via modulating the Aleutian low intensity and North Pacific storm track intensity. The observed AMO modulation of the spring AO–EASM connection and Pacific center of the spring AO can be captured by the long historical simulation in a coupled global climate model.

Environmental influences on Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengusL.) larvae reveal recent constraints in recruitment success

AbstractThe lack of any abundant recruiting year class of Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring between 2005 and 2015 contributed to an approximate reduction of 40% in the spawning-stock biomass since 2009, i.e. from 7 to 4 million tonnes. Warming of the North Atlantic is suggested to contribute to this reduction in recruitment. In the past, a warm phase induced by a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the North Atlantic was positively correlated to the NSS herring stock size. Recent unprecedented ocean warming in the Norwegian Sea ecosystem, besides elevated temperatures due to a positive AMO, seems to be outside optimal environmental conditions for early life history stages of NSS herring. We analysed 28 years of survey data using generalized additive models to reconstruct environmental conditions for drifting yolksac and preflexion stage larvae. Our results indicate that strong recruitment years were more likely when the larvae occurred simultaneously with a negative AMO during positive temperature anomalies. The transition from yolksac stages towards preflexion stages occurred while there was a slow increase in water temperature during the larval drift. Weak recruitment years generally occurred when larvae experienced elevated temperatures during the life stage transition under a positive AMO. These results augment evidence that the historical positive relationship between AMO and stock dynamics is reversed between 1988 and 2015. Albeit not implying any specific mechanistic biological interactions, we can assume that the unprecedented warming has modified the ecosystem drivers that negatively affect drifting larvae. Since 2016, the North Atlantic is shifting into a negative AMO phase, possibly resulting in the 10-year recruitment suppression of NSS herring ending soon.

Modulation of the Relationship between ENSO and Its Combination Mode by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

AbstractRecent studies demonstrated the existence of a conspicuous atmospheric combination mode (C-mode) originating from nonlinear interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle (AC). Here we find that the C-mode exhibits prominent decadal amplitude variations during the ENSO decaying boreal spring season. It is revealed that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can largely explain this waxing and waning in amplitude. A robust positive correlation between ENSO and the C-mode is detected during a negative AMO phase but not during a positive phase. Similar results can also be found in the relationship of ENSO with 1) the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone and 2) spring precipitation over southern China, both of which are closely associated with the C-mode. We suggest that ENSO property changes due to an AMO modulation play a crucial role in determining these decadal shifts. During a positive AMO phase, ENSO events are distinctly weaker than those in an AMO negative phase. In addition, El Niño events concurrent with a positive AMO phase tend to exhibit a westward-shifted sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. These SST characteristics during the positive AMO phase are both not conducive to the development of the meridionally asymmetric C-mode atmospheric circulation pattern and thus reduce the ENSO/C-mode correlation on decadal time scales. These observations can be realistically reproduced by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) experiment in which North Atlantic SSTs are nudged to reproduce a 50-yr sinusoidally varying AMO evolution. Our conclusion carries important implications for understanding seasonally modulated ENSO dynamics and multiscale climate impacts over East Asia.

Are abyssal scavenging amphipod assemblages linked to climate cycles?

Scavenging amphipods are a numerically dominant and taxonomically diverse group that are key necrophages in deep-sea environments. They contribute to the detrital food web by scavenging large food-falls and provide a food source for other organisms, at bathyal and abyssal depths. Samples of this assemblage have been collected at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the North Atlantic (48°50′N 16°30′W, 4850 m) for >30 years. They were collected by means of baited traps between 1985 and 2016, covering a period of well-characterised changes in the upper ocean. From the 19 samples analysed, a total of 16 taxa were identified from 106,261 specimens. Four taxa, Abyssorchomene chevreuxi (Stebbing, 1906), Paralicella tenuipes Chevreux, 1908, P. caperesca Shulenberger & Barnard, 1976, and Eurythenes spp., dominated catches and were present in all samples.The dominant species varied in time with P. tenuipes typically dominant early in the time series (1985–1997) and its congener, P. caperesca, typically dominant later (2011–2016). Amphipod faunal composition exhibited a significant correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).Amphipod diversity was significantly lower in years with higher estimated volumetric particle flux at 3000 m. Species richness varied significantly between AMO phases, with higher values during ‘cool’ phase.Our results suggest a ‘regime shift’ in scavenging amphipod communities following a ‘regime shift’ in surface ocean conditions driven by a phase shift in Atlantic climate (from cool to warm AMO). This shift manifests itself in a remarkable change in dominant species, from obligate necrophages such as Paralicella spp., with semelparous reproduction to Abyssorchomene spp. which have a more varied diet and iteroparous reproduction, and are thus potentially more able to take advantage of greater or varied food availability from increased organic matter flux to the abyssal seafloor.

Evaluation of East Asian Summer Climate Prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal Prediction Project

Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, this study evaluates the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the CESM (Community Earth System Model) large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction (CESM-DPLE) project. The results demonstrate that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic features of the East Asian summer climate and associated main atmospheric circulation patterns. In general, the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature, but less so for precipitation, on the interannual timescale. CESM-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid- and high-latitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well, all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A transition into the warm phase of the AMO after the late 1990s decreased the geopotential height and enhanced the strength of the monsoon in East Asia via the teleconnection wave train during summer, leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East Asia. Altogether, CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the summer temperature in East Asia on the interannual timescale, as well as the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s, albeit with certain inadequacies remaining. The CESM-DPLE project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal timescales.

The Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Choco Low-Level Jet and Precipitation in Colombia

This study examines the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the Choco Low-level Jet (CJ) variations during the 1983–2016 period. Considering the September–November (SON) 925 hPa zonal wind index in the CJ core, a significant breakpoint occurs in 1997 with larger values after 1997. The changes in the CJ and Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), and their related ocean-atmospheric patterns and impacts on precipitation over Colombia were analyzed considering separately the 1983–1996 and 1998–2016 periods, which overlap the cold and warm AMO phases, respectively. During the 1998–2016 period, the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the positive ones in the Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) strengthen the CJ and weaken the CLLJ, and moisture is transported into Central and Western Colombia increasing the rainfall there. Our results indicate that part of the CJ strengthening after 1997 was due to a higher percentage of intense CJ events coinciding with La Niña events during the warm AMO and cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) background. However, the AMO-related SST and sea level pressure (SLP) variations in the TNA seem to be more crucial in modulating the CJ and CLLJ intensities, such that CJ is weakened (intensified) and CLLJ is intensified (weakened) before (after) 1997. As far as we know, the relations of the CJ and CLLJ intensities to the AMO phases were not examined before and might be useful for modeling studies.

Multi‐scale features of the co‐variability between global sea surface temperature anomalies and daily extreme rainfall in Argentina

AbstractThe goal of this study is to provide a better understanding of the trends and dominant oscillations characterizing the co‐variability between global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and daily extreme rainfall in Argentina. A singular value decomposition was performed between daily extreme rainfall monthly index in Argentina and global SST without removing the trends. The three leading modes explain 70.5% of the co‐variability, while the two leading modes explain more than 66% of the variability. The two leading modes exhibit significant variability on inter‐annual timescales related to tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, and specifically with El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. On decadal timescales, the leading mode activity is related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas the second leading mode is associated with the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO). The third leading mode show co‐variability between the SST of the tropical Atlantic and the Indian ocean and extreme rainfall in the eastern‐centre of Argentina; this mode distinguishes phases of AMO. In addition, the two leading modes show positive trends, being largely non‐linear for leading one. The fact that extreme rainfall changes in Argentina observed in the last decades, are significantly influenced by the combination of the multi‐decadal variability and long‐term trends associated with the tropical oceans, is valuable knowledge to assess them in the future.