Fund Performance Persistence Research Articles

Performance and performance persistence of UK closed-end equity funds

Using a comprehensive data set of almost 300 UK closed-end equity funds over the period 1990 to 2013, we use the false discovery rate to assess the alpha-performance of individual funds with both domestic and other mandates, using self-declared benchmarks and additional risk factors. We find evidence to indicate that up to 16% of the funds have truly positive alphas while around 3% have truly negative alphas. Positive post-formation alphas using fund-price returns depend on the factor model used: there is some positive-alpha performance when post-formation returns are evaluated using a one-factor global model but substantial positive-alpha performance when using a four-factor global model.

Risk and Reward in Venture Capital Funds

Using detailed data from Korea, free from the selection bias problem and providing industry codes for companies a venture capital (VC) fund invests in, this study conducts comprehensive analyses of performance and performance persistence of VC funds. We find significant differences between the results using a non-risk-adjusted and those using a riskadjusted performance measure. Another notable finding is that government participation affects the risk-adjusted performance and cash inflows of venture capital funds. Furthermore, the persistence of performance is much weaker when we control risk of VC funds. In addition, we provide the evidence that the performance in a public market has a positive influence on the probability of raising subsequent venture capital funds.

Persistence in Performance of Indian Equity Mutual Funds: An Empirical Investigation

Persistence in performance of fund managers has been a topic of interest among finance fraternity for the last four decades. In this paper we evaluated the relative performance of equity mutual funds in India with respect to three performance indicators, and also tested the persistence in their performance with respect to these indicators across time. The performance indicators used for the funds are their raw returns, the tracking error they generate over their benchmarks, and the information ratios they attain. We find that on the whole the funds have done well. Their overall average return, tracking error and information ratio is positive during our study period. For the persistence part, we used a regression approach and a contingency table approach which showed no evidence of persistence for the ELSS funds, and some evidence of persistence for the Growth funds or all funds taken together. Our results were further substantiated with a Spearman Rank Correlation test. Another interesting finding is that evidence of persistence is more apparent over a one year evaluation horizon, compared to a time horizon either less than or more than one year. In fact persistence disappears completely when the horizon is extended to a period of time as long as thirty months or more. This gives the impression of efficiency of the market in the long run. Persistence seems to be marginally more for raw returns compared to that of tracking error or information ratio. On the whole it seems that past performance is hardly a reliable guide for future performance, particularly over a longer time horizon.

Quantitative Edge in Portfolio Management of CTA Investments

Standard tests for persistence in hedge fund performance are not consistent with investment practices because they ignore performance reporting delay, overlook fund selection standards of institutional investors, and often use portfolios with too many funds. This paper introduces a set of tests based on a large scale simulation framework and stochastic dominance methodology. These tests incorporate constraints that are standard practice in the institutional investment field. To illustrate this framework, we apply it to investigate momentum in performance of hedge funds in the managed futures industry. We find persistence in performance of the top performing fund managers that is significant in statistical and economic terms. Our methodology extends the toolbox of performance persistence tests and results in findings that can be implemented by institutional investors.

Performance of international and global equity mutual funds: Do country momentum and sector momentum matter?

This is the first paper analyzing the impact of index momentum factors on the performance of international and global equity funds. Extending an international, index-based version of the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model by adding the factors of country momentum and sector momentum, we find that more than 50% of funds exhibit significant exposure to at least one of these factors. Including both new factors in performance evaluation clearly impacts results when analyzing (i) the risk-adjusted performance, (ii) the performance persistence of funds, and (iii) luck versus skill in the cross-section of funds. Our main results are robust against models which additionally cover a stock-based momentum factor as well as single country, regional and sector factors.

Investment Style and Performance: Evidence for International Equity Mutual Funds

In this paper we study the performance and performance persistence of international equity mutual funds with a focus on fund investment styles. Using a best-fit index methodology, we sort funds yearly based on the style dimensions of size and value/growth, as well as on regional categories (Europe, Pacific and emerging markets). In doing so, we find that (i) the performance of international funds clearly differs regarding style and regional categories, (ii) based on a five-factor alpha, most international style portfolios exhibit performance persistence, and (iii) top performing SMID-cap portfolios and top performing emerging market portfolios show significant and positive alphas. Moreover, using a conditional five-factor alpha as alternative ranking criteria further improves the prediction of future international fund performance.

Performance Persistence of Indian Fund of Mutual Funds: With Special Reference to Bull and Bear Market

This paper examines the performance persistence of Indian Fund of Mutual Funds (FoFs) during the period from January 2nd 2007 to December 31st 2010. The entire study period classified into three sub-periods based on the movement of BSE 500 index closing value and they are named as First Bull Market Period, Bear Market Period and Second Bull Market Period. The performance of individual FoFs in each sub-period are assessed by employing the performance measures of average excess return, Sharpe ratio and Jensen’s alpha. After testing the performance of the sample funds, contingence table is created by classifying the sample funds as winner or loser. Malkiel Z-test, Brown and Goetzmann Z-test and Khan and Rude Chi-square test is used to test the performance persistence of sample funds and found that the fund excel in the bull market do not expect to do well in the bear market. This study also concluded that the investors cannot earn above average risk adjusted return in the bull market period by hiring the above median performer of earlier bull market period.

Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence from the Polish Market

The paper addresses an issue of the performance persistence in a mutual fund market. The study focuses especially on the evidence from Poland. The past performance of mutual funds is widely regarded as a key criterion in investment decision making in Poland nowadays, whereas existing empirical evidence does not confirm its predictive power. The paper consists of three main parts. The first is a review of existing academic evidence of the performance persistence. The second is the analysis of the performance persistence among Polish equity and money market funds in years 1998-2009. Three methods of analysis are employed: quartile analysis, raw-data correlation and rank correlation. The last section of the article consists of conclusions and recommendations. The study confirms existence of the persistence in raw returns and risk-adjusted returns among the Polish money market funds but not among the equity funds. There is also a strong evidence of the volatility persistence in the both group of mutual funds.

A Mispricing-Based Explanation of How Flow Affects Mutual Fund Performance

Using fund raw return as a proxy for unsophisticated flows, I find that future fund performance increases in alpha and decreases in flow. I show that funds holding stocks which, in aggregate, have been sold by funds with low flows do better in the future. Such stocks have had their prices pushed down, and therefore outperform. A measure of these “aggregate flow-induced sales” of a fund’s portfolio largely subsumes raw return in predicting future fund performance. These results have implications for the debate on whether flows are responsible for the lack of mutual fund performance persistence.

On the informativeness of persistence for evaluating mutual fund performance using partial frontiers

The last few years have witnessed a rapid evolution in the literature evaluating mutual fund performance using frontier techniques. The instruments applied, mostly DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) and, to a lesser extent, FDH (Free Disposal Hull), are able to encompass several dimensions of performance, but they also have some disadvantages that might be preventing a wider acceptance. The recently developed order-mand order-αpartial frontiers overcome some of the disadvantages (they are robust with respect to extreme values and noise, and do not suffer from the well-known curse of dimensionality) while keeping the main virtues of DEA and FDH (they are fully nonparametric). In this article we apply not only the non-convex counterpart of DEA (FDH) but also order-mand order-αpartial frontiers to a sample of US mutual funds. The results obtained for both order-mand order-αare useful, since a full ranking of the mutual funds' performance can be obtained. We merge these methods with the literature on mutual fund performance persistence. By combining the two literatures we derive an algorithm which establishes how the choice of m and α parameters intrinsic to order-mand order-α(respectively) relate to the existence of performance persistence and the contrarian effect.

Hedge Fund Characteristics and Performance Persistence

In this paper, we investigate the performance persistence of hedge funds over time horizons between 6 and 36 months based on a merged sample from the Lipper/TASS and CISDM databases for the time period from 1994 to 2008. Unlike previous literature, we use a panel probit regression approach to identify fund characteristics that are significantly related to performance persistence. We then investigate the performance of two-way sorted portfolios where sorting is based on past performance and one of the additional fund characteristics identified as persistence-enhancing in the probit analysis. We find statistically and economically significant performance persistence for time horizons of up to 36 months. Although we identify several fund characteristics that are strongly correlated with the probability of observing performance persistence, we find only one fund characteristic, a strategy distinctiveness index that attempts to measure manager skills and the uniqueness of the hedge fund's trading strategies, to have the ability to systematically improve performance persistence up to a time horizon of 24 months. The economic magnitude of this improvement amounts to a sizeable increase in alpha by approximately 4.0% and 2.3% p.a. for annual and biennial rebalancing, respectively.

Mutual fund performance in Tunisia: A multivariate GARCH approach

This article investigates mutual fund performance in the Tunisian capital market using conditional multifactor models. In the mutual fund literature, the traditional approach to capture conditionality is the use of predetermined instruments. This study proposes a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to compute conditional measures. Overall, we find evidence of persistence in mutual fund performance only when we implement the multivariate GARCH method. This result is due to the fact that the Jensen alphas are estimated more precisely in the multivariate GARCH model than in the other approaches. These results indicate that the Tunisian capital market presents strong investment opportunities for sophisticated investors such as mutual funds.

Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities

Our study analyzes the performance of hybrid mutual funds. Based on two extended Carhart models we determine total fund performance by comparing fund returns to investable fund-specific style benchmarks. Using daily returns and a quarterly measurement interval, we present an innovative return-based approach to decompose total performance into in-quarter abnormal performance and style-shifting performance. In addition, we split total style-shifting performance into active and passive components. In this context, we confirm possible benefits of these performance measures by analyzing several simulated investment strategies. Our empirical study covers 520 hybrid mutual funds from 10/1998 to 12/2009 and shows that hybrid mutual funds (i) do not outperform their benchmarks on average, (ii) partially show positive in-quarter abnormal performance and style-shifting abilities, and (iii) exhibit short-term persistence in in-quarter abnormal performance but not in style-shifting abilities.

Characteristics of Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Characteristics of Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Characteristics of Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Characteristics of Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

The Effect of Investment Constraints on Hedge Fund Investor Returns

This paper examines the effect of investor-level real-world investment constraints, including several which had not been studied before, on hedge fund performance and its persistence. Using a large consolidated database, we demonstrate that hedge fund performance persistence is significantly reduced when rebalancing rules reflect fund size restrictions and liquidity constraints, but remains statistically significant at higher rebalancing frequencies. Hypothetical investor portfolios that incorporate additional minimum diversification constraints and minimum investment requirements suggest that the performance and its persistence documented in earlier studies of hedge funds is not easily exploitable, especially by large investors.

Market Conditions and Fund Flows: Evidence from Hedge Funds

This paper investigates whether market conditions affect fund investor behaviour in the hedge fund industry, especially the volatility in the up and down markets. Using a sample of 5,254 individual hedge funds from January 1994 to December 2009, we find that hedge fund investors tend to invest less during up and down-volatile markets. They also adopt different investment strategies in these two market conditions. When market is calm and relatively predictable, there is almost no difference in their behaviors between up and down markets. We also find that smart money effect exists over both 3- and 12-month periods under all market conditions except volatile markets. A further investigation suggests that the observed smart money effect is largely driven by hedge fund performance persistence, which is present and significant is quiet markets only. The findings are relevant to portfolio theories concerning investor recognition of upside and downside volatilities.

Risk, return & performance evaluation of selected mutual fund schemes – a study on large & mid cap funds

This paper studies the persistence of mutual fund performance. Academic research oftenfocuses on fund returns. This study intends to examine the performance of selected Large cap and Mid capmutual fund schemes of Indian Mutual fund industry during the study period 2007 to 2011. The performanceof selected schemes is evaluated in terms of average returns, systematic risk, and unsystematic risk and byusing different measures like: Sharpe, Jenson, Treynor and FAMA. After detailed analysis it is found thatexcept two all the sampled schemes have performed better than market. Supporting the establishedrelationship of high risk - high return, better performing schemes are exposed to higher risk. The findings alsorevealed that majority of the schemes were adequately diversified and about 60% of the schemes were able tobeat the market with help of better stock selection skill of fund managers. Finding from the t-test calculationsshows that there is no difference between returns from large cap mid cap mutual funds in long run. From thereturn comparison of mutual funds and market, in 2008 & 2011 large cap are underperforming than marketand in 2011 only mid cap mutual funds are showing less return than market returns.

Performance of International and Global Equity Mutual Funds: Country and Sector Momentum Matter

This is the first paper analyzing the impact of index momentum factors on the performance of international and global equity funds. Extending an international, index-based version of the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model by adding the factors of country momentum and sector momentum, we find that more than 50% of funds exhibit significant exposure to at least one of these factors. Including both new factors in performance evaluation clearly impacts results when analyzing (i) the risk-adjusted performance, (ii) the performance persistence of funds, and (iii) luck versus skill in the cross-section of funds. Our main results are robust against models which additionally cover a stock-based momentum factor as well as single country, regional and sector factors.

Mutual Fund Performance Persistence, Market Efficiency, and Breadth

In this study we use a comprehensive database of mutual funds and study performance persistence across different styles, regions, and asset classes. While we find strong evidence of performance persistence for some markets, there is weak or no evidence for other markets. Contrary to popular belief, we find no relation between performance persistence and market efficiency. Performance persistence appears to be positively related to market breadth. Our results are inconsistent with anecdotal evidence that the added value of active management is concentrated in less efficient markets. Instead, our results indicate that managerial skill is more pronounced in markets that offer more investment opportunities.