Periods Of Financial Turmoil Research Articles

New runs‐based approach to testing value at risk forecasts

AbstractThe reformed Basel framework has left value at risk (VaR) as a basic tool of validating risk models. Within this framework, VaR independence tests have been regarded as critical to ensuring stability during periods of financial turmoil. However, until now, there is no consent among researchers regarding the choice of the appropriate test. The available procedures are either inaccurate in finite samples or need to rely on Monte Carlo simulations. To remedy these problems, we propose a new method for testing VaR models, based on the distribution of the number of runs. It outperforms the existing methods in two main aspects: First, it is exact in finite samples and thus allows for perfect control over the Type 1 error; second, its distribution is available in a closed form, so it does not require simulations before implementation. We show that it is the most adequate current procedure for testing low‐level VaR series, which corresponds to today's regulatory standards.

Cross-industry contagion of systemic financial risks from the perspective of dynamic tail risk network: Evidence from China

Fluctuations in interconnectedness within different industrial sectors are hence critical not only for financial market stability but also for the development of real economy. Thus, this paper contractures the varying network structure and estimates the tail risk spillover linkages at the industry level by applying the TENET (Tail-Event driven NETwork) framework on China’s 24 sectors from 2007 to 2018. There is a higher level of risk spillovers and spatial linkages between sectors during turmoil periods, and the centrality indicators can effectively identify the systemically important industries. Notably, it is more comprehensive and accurate to judge the systemic importance node by considering its location and connection in the network rather than just its internal attributes. Furthermore, the high-order polynomial regressions show that degree and eigenvector centrality have a significantly positive effect on risk contagion, while closeness centrality has a two-regime (“both robust and fragile”) contagion mechanism. From a policy point of view, regulators could formulate early-warning measures based on the impact mechanism and spread paths of systemic risk, especially in financial turmoil periods. Meanwhile, they should pay more attention to preventing the aggregate risks of the most influential sectors.

Dynamic spillover between oil price shocks and technology stock indices: A country level analysis

We study dynamic spillovers between oil price shocks and the technology stocks’ returns and volatility during 2000–2021 in the top-15 countries with advanced technology sectors. The oil shocks are disentangled based on Ready (2018) methodology and the spillovers are analyzed using the Diebold and Yılmaz (2014) approach. The results evidence that dynamic connectedness between technology indices and oil shocks increases remarkably during the periods of financial turmoil. Moreover, our outcomes reveal that oil risk shocks are net contributors to return and volatility of technology indices. The technology stock indices of France, Germany, and USA are the greatest contributors of innovations to oil shocks and other technology indices, whereas the technology indices of Japan, China and Taiwan are the greatest receivers of return and volatility shocks from others. The results highlight that diversification and hedging benefits among analyzed markets appear considerably reduced during the periods of economic slowdown.

Non-Financial Markets and Interconnectedness between US and Emerging Financial Economies: Evidence from Covid-19 Financial Crisis

During times of financial turmoil, when traditional assets experience significant volatility, commodity markets provide diversification benefits to investors. The objective is to investigate the factors influencing financial contagion between the United States and emerging Asian equity markets (China and India). The study analyzes the influential impact of the volatility index, gold, oil, and USD index on financial contagion among the markets. The dynamic conditional correlation analysis is utilized to explore the correlations during the US subprime and Covid-19 crises, and quantile regression analysis is conducted at different levels of time-varying correlations. The study's results suggest that financial contagion becomes more pronounced during periods of financial turmoil, and global financial crises contribute to alterations in the dependence structure between financial contagion among equity markets and global macroeconomic risk factors. The effect of financial contagion can be abridged through altering portfolio reallocation strategies according to investors’ risk appetite during high market volatility.

What has the strongest connectedness with clean energy? Technology, substitutes, or raw materials

This paper examines the connectedness of clean energy with technology, substitutes (crude oil and natural gas), and raw materials (silver, platinum, copper, corn, and soybean). This is conducted from a systemic perspective, using the quantile time–frequency connectedness approach. The results reveal that clean energy and technology stocks demonstrate the strongest pairwise connectedness across all quantile levels in the short, medium, and long terms. Meanwhile, fossil energy commodities (as substitutes) and metal and agricultural commodities (as raw materials) exhibit relatively intensive connectedness, with clean energy stocks only at the lower and upper quantiles in the short term. Furthermore, connectedness among the markets under examination is significantly enhanced during periods of financial turmoil, as was the case during the European debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, the minimum connectedness portfolio analysis indicates that natural gas futures offer the highest hedge effectiveness, and technology stocks offer the lowest hedge effectiveness across frequencies and quantiles. This finding suggests that optimal portfolios will have a larger proportion of natural gas futures. These findings have significant implications for both investors and policymakers.

Volatility spillover and connectedness among REITs, NFTs, cryptocurrencies and other assets: Portfolio implications

ABSTRACT We investigate the return and volatility spillovers among NFTs, REITs, and other major financial assets from January 2019 to November 2022, using connectedness approaches. The findings indicate that total return and volatility connectedness increased during the COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war. REITs partially maintained their historical independence from shocks from other assets, while NFTs emerged as the new portfolio diversifiers. Findings suggest that investors can use REITs or a combination of NFTs, OIL, GOLD, and REITs with other assets to hedge against volatile assets during periods of financial turmoil. These findings have significant implications for heterogeneous market participants aiming to identify optimal portfolio diversifiers.

Asymmetric efficiency and connectedness among green stocks, halal tourism stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities: Portfolio hedging implications

This study examines asymmetric efficiency and connectedness among halal tourism stocks, green stocks, cryptocurrency, gold, and oil using data covering the period from 2018M12–2022M09. Employing asymmetric multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, this study finds gold to be the most efficient asset and halal tourism stocks to be more efficient than green stocks. The asymmetric connectedness approach identifies green stocks as net transmitters of return shocks in all market conditions and halal tourism stocks (oil) as net receivers of return shocks in normal and upward (downward) market conditions. The connectedness among the assets increases during major economic events such as COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war. Portfolio analysis suggests that the minimum connectedness portfolio outperforms all the other methods and shows halal tourism and green stocks offer significant hedging effectiveness. Our findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers seeking to diversify portfolios, manage risks, and regulate information in periods of financial turmoil and asymmetric market conditions.

Investor bias, risk and price volatility

PurposeThis study proposes a framework based on salience theory and shows that focusing on one type of risk (idiosyncratic or systemic) can explain overpricing of securities ex ante, and resales at low prices during crisis periods.Design/methodology/approachThe author consider an overlapping generations (OLG) model where each generation lives for two periods and there is no population growth. Agents (investors) start their lives with an endowment W > 0 and have mean-variance utility. They invest their endowment when young and consume when old. Each period, the young investors optimally choose their portfolio from different risky assets acquired from the old generation, all assumed to be in fixed supply.FindingsThe author show that investor salience bias can explain excess volatility of asset prices and the resulting fire-sales in periods of financial turmoil. A change in salience – from one component (idiosyncratic) to the other (systemic) – will generate excess volatility. Interestingly, higher risk aversion generally exacerbates the excess volatility of prices. Moreover, the model predicts that if a big systemic shock hits the financial system, due to salience bias the price of systemic assets falls sharply. This relates to the observed fire-sales of assets during the global financial crisis.Practical implicationsThe proposed model and results suggest that there may be a scope for intervention in financial markets during turbulences. In terms of ex ante policies the study suggests that investors and regulator should use better risk assessment technologies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a tractable model based on the argument that investor salience may exacerbate the excess volatility of prices during financial downturns. The author relate salience to two types of risk; idiosyncratic and systemic and assume that investors' risk perception is biased towards the type of risk that is currently salient based on prior beliefs or past data. The author show that the diversification fallacy of the precrisis period, where seemingly safe assets were overpriced, can be explained by agents overweighing idiosyncratic risk and ignoring systemic risk.

Return and risk spillovers between the ESG global index and stock markets: Evidence from time and frequency analysis

In this paper, we examine comovements between stock market returns and investments that take into account Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors by studying the interconnections between the two returns in time and frequency space. We study interdependencies between the conventional stock market and ESG stocks using daily data from 2007 to 2021 for 19 developing and 19 developed countries. Our results show significant comovement patterns between ESG returns and stock returns at various frequencies, time scales, and sample episodes in all countries, particularly during periods of financial turmoil. For the most part, we document positive (in-phase) comovements between the stock returns and ESG returns in developing countries and negative (out-of-phase) comovements in developed countries. This implies limited portfolio gains from adding ESG stocks to portfolio diversification in developing countries but significant gains in developed countries.

Cross-sectional quantile regression for estimating conditional VaR of returns during periods of high volatility

Evaluating value at risk (VaR) for a firm’s returns during periods of financial turmoil is a challenging task because of the high volatility in the market. We propose estimating conditional VaR and expected shortfall (ES) for a given firm’s returns using quantile regression with cross-sectional (CSQR) data about other firms operating in the same market. An evaluation using US market data between 2000 and 2020 shows that our approach has certain advantages over a CAViaR model. Identification of low-risk firms and a reduction in computing times are additional advantages of the new method described.

Quantile dependencies and connectedness between stock and precious metals markets

The paper examines the frequency-based interlinkages between stock indices and precious metals at extreme and median quantiles. It employs the quantile cross-spectral approach (Baruník and Kley, 2019) and the novel frequency quantile connectedness analysis (Chatziantoniou et al., 2021) to a sample of stocks and precious metals returns. The results show that the interdependence between equity indices and precious metals markets is contingent on the state of the market (bear, bull, or normal) and the horizon of frequency domains. Of all precious metals, the diversification benefits from gold, followed by silver, are consistently the highest for SP500 and STOXX50 and the least with palladium in most cases. The same holds when we investigate the diversification potential of precious metals for industrial sectors in the US and UK. A quantile frequency connectedness approach reveals that the diversification potential of precious metals diminishes in the long frequency horizon as coherence with stock indices becomes highly positive. The connectedness between stock indices and precious metals is high during market extremities but dampens as the market attains stability. At the same time, connectedness increases during periods of financial turmoil across all frequencies. We also document a change in the diversification role of precious metals during COVID-19.

Foreign investments during financial crises: Institutional investors’ informational skills create value when familiarity does not

During periods of market turmoil, the strategies adopted by institutional investors impact their own financial soundness. Investors’ flight to familiarity during heightened market uncertainty is well documented in the literature. However, the impact of this phenomenon on institutional investors’ performance remains unexplored. In this paper, the performance of US global funds is investigated to assess whether it has been driven by their degree of familiarity with foreign markets or by their selectivity skills during the subprime financial crisis. The paper’s findings suggest that managers’ active stock selection improves fund performance by a significant annualized alpha of 2.24% if this selectivity is based on their informational advantage. In contrast, managers who were seeking familiar stocks to be “on the safe side” during the crisis period did not create value for their clients. These results are valuable for fund managers’ asset allocation strategies during periods of financial turmoil. They are also useful for financial market authorities in their efforts (a) to convince institutional investors towards pursuing their information acquisition activities during crisis periods and (b) to improve investors’ protection in financial markets.

Return and volatility spillovers between energy and BRIC markets: Evidence from quantile connectedness

Using the quantile connectedness approach for the median, lower, and upper quantiles, we examine the return and volatility connectedness between energy and BRIC markets from January 1, 2000, to July 9, 2021. We find that uncertain economic activity and intense periods characterize energy and BRIC market returns and volatility connectedness. A parallel return and volatility connectedness structure for upper and lower quantiles against the average quantile revealed different results. Time-varying features are substantiated between energy and BRIC markets; significant distress events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, European Debt Crisis, Shale Oil Revolution, and COVID-19 pandemic, intensified spillovers. We highlight diversification avenues for energy and BRIC markets given the periods of financial turmoil, with investors’ concerns widely addressed by opt-in investment opportunities with lower risk and greater diversification. Our study has beneficial implications for policymakers, regulators, investors, and financial market constituents to redevelop their existing strategies to avoid financial losses.

The source of financial contagion and spillovers: An evaluation of the covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis.

This study investigates the reaction of stock markets to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC) and compares their influence in terms of risk exposures. The empirical investigation is conducted using the modified ICSS test, DCC-GARCH, and Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness analysis to examine financial contagion and volatility spillovers. To further reveal the impact of these two crises, the statistical features of tranquil and crisis periods under different time intervals are also compared. The test results show that although the outbreak’s origin was in China, the US stock market is the source of financial contagion and volatility spillovers during the pandemic, just as it was during the GFC. The propagation of shocks is considerably higher between developed economies compared to emerging markets. Additionally, the results show that the COVID-19 pandemic induced a more severe contagious effect and risk transmission than the GFC. The study provides an extensive examination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the GFC in terms of financial contagion and volatility spillovers. The results suggest the presence of strong co-movements of world stock markets with the US equity market, especially in periods of financial turmoil.

Bank systemic risk exposure and office market interconnectedness

We empirically examine how systemic risk in the banking sector leads to correlated risk in office markets of global financial centers. In so doing, we compute an aggregated measure of systemic risk in financial centers as the cumulated expected capital shortfall of local financial institutions. Our identification strategy is based on a double counterfactual approach by comparing normal with financial distress periods as well as office with retail markets. We find that office market interconnectedness arises from systemic risk during financial turmoil periods. Office market performance in a financial center is affected by returns of systemically linked financial center office markets only during a systemic banking crisis. In contrast, there is no evidence of correlated risk during normal times and among the within-city counterfactual retail sector. The decline in office market returns during a banking crisis is larger in financial centers compared to non-financial centers.

Transmission of the Greek crisis on the sovereign debt markets in the euro area.

We test for the contagion effects stemming from the Greek debt crisis in the daily 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads in nine Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries. To this end, we estimate the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model of Engle (2002) from January 01, 2003 to December 31, 2015. In addition, we calculate and plot the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval for each DCC series. To the best of our knowledge, this approach of Kchaou and Bellalah (2020) has never been used to study the contagion of the subprime and Greek crises between the 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads of the main EMU countries. Consequently, this approach enables us to compare our results with those of previous works based on other methods. It also offers useful insights to policy makers to address the contagion effect through the implementation of adequate measures. Although the Greek spread played the role of a global factor for the majority of countries during the observation period, the results invalidate the existence of contagious episodes resulting from the Hellenic crisis. We justify these findings either by the weakness of the weight of the Greek economy in the euro area or by the effectiveness of the unconventional monetary policies taken by the European Central Bank (ECB), the bailouts for Greece in 2010, 2012 and 2015 and the austerity measures and structural reforms implemented by the governments of EMU countries. Moreover, DCC between Greece and the other countries have shown a downward behavior during the acute phases of Greek crisis, suggesting a disintegration of the Hellenic bond market with those of other euro area countries during periods of financial turmoil. Furthermore, the results indicate that the subprime crisis affected a large part of these markets well before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. All these findings provide valuable information for international investors, central bankers and policymakers.

Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC

Using a bivariate dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, this study compares the safe-haven properties of various assets against the major Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock indexes during two periods of financial turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Sovereign bonds offered the highest hedging benefits under both crises. The traditional safe assets, gold and silver, which were reasonably productive under the GFC, have been less so during the pandemic. The Japanese yen emerged as a very safe choice for investors holding GCC stock indexes. Both sector indexes and stock indexes failed to safeguard investors most of the time during each crisis.

A comparative analysis of the monetary policy transmission channels in the U.S: a wavelet-based approach

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates competing approaches to assess the effectiveness of transmission channels for the U.S. monetary policy from 1°Q 1995 to 3°Q 2019. While evaluating the competing approaches, the paper follows wavelet coherence approach providing results in time and frequency domain. The results show how money and credit channels work quite well during low volatile periods generally, whereas they suggest that these channels are less effective during periods of financial turmoil and very low interest rate. However, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited version show some effects also during periods of instability. In more detail, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited appear to be the most effective monetary policy transmission mechanisms, while the traditional banking-lending channel seems effective only in low volatile periods. Finally, the results for consumption-based channels and international trade-based channels show the least effectiveness.

Interconnectedness in Credit Market: An Empirical Investigation Using UK and US CDS Data

This paper uses a structural time series methodology to test the notion of interconnectedness between the UK and the US credit markets. The empirical tests utilise data on premium for the Banking sector credit default swaps (CDS) and covers the recent period of financial turmoil. The methodology based on Kalman filter is robust in the presence of limited convergence. The long-term steady state convergence in CDS premium is clearly noticeable between these two markets from the results. This observation lends support for the coordinated regulatory policy initiatives to deal with the crisis and offer suggestions for sound operations of the international financial systems.

Interconnectedness in Credit Market: An Empirical Investigation Using UK and US CDS Data

This paper uses a structural time series methodology to test the notion of interconnectedness between the UK and the US credit markets. The empirical tests utilise data on premium for the Banking sector credit default swaps (CDS) and covers the recent period of financial turmoil. The methodology based on Kalman filter is robust in the presence of limited convergence. The long-term steady state convergence in CDS premium is clearly noticeable between these two markets from the results. This observation lends support for the coordinated regulatory policy initiatives to deal with the crisis and offer suggestions for sound operations of the international financial systems.