Period Of Economic Slowdown Research Articles

Does Russian gas have a future in China?

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as prospects for increasing the supply of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030, China can catch up and overtake Europe in gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in the Middle Kingdom will be 390–560 billion cubic meters. m, which is almost 1.5 times higher than the 2022 level. During a period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand on the global hydrocarbon market leads to destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare works on the evolution of global energy markets and the consequences for the largest countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak gas demand in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to call the 21st century the century of gas transformation.

Dynamic spillover between oil price shocks and technology stock indices: A country level analysis

We study dynamic spillovers between oil price shocks and the technology stocks’ returns and volatility during 2000–2021 in the top-15 countries with advanced technology sectors. The oil shocks are disentangled based on Ready (2018) methodology and the spillovers are analyzed using the Diebold and Yılmaz (2014) approach. The results evidence that dynamic connectedness between technology indices and oil shocks increases remarkably during the periods of financial turmoil. Moreover, our outcomes reveal that oil risk shocks are net contributors to return and volatility of technology indices. The technology stock indices of France, Germany, and USA are the greatest contributors of innovations to oil shocks and other technology indices, whereas the technology indices of Japan, China and Taiwan are the greatest receivers of return and volatility shocks from others. The results highlight that diversification and hedging benefits among analyzed markets appear considerably reduced during the periods of economic slowdown.

Prospects for Russian Gas in China for the Period until 2035

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the longterm development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390–560 billion cubic meters. m, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the longterm dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country’s participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinсes of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia — 2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.

Budget Performance and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Historical Review of the 4th Republic

This paper traced and analyses how effective or not, budget has been an instrument of policy achievement in governance in Nigeria. It examines the relationship between budget performance and economic growth in Nigeria over the course of the 4th Republic (1999-2019). Budget performance in Nigeria has been characterized by both successes and challenges, including increased transparency and accountability, and efforts to invest in infrastructure and social services, as well as inadequate resource allocation, poor project planning and execution, and high levels of corruption. Economic growth in Nigeria has also been mixed over the past two decades, with a period of growth and stability in the late 1990s and early 2000s followed by a period of economic slowdown and instability due to declining oil prices and other factors. In recent years, Nigeria has made efforts to diversify its economy and has achieved some growth, but the country continues to face significant economic challenges. While it is difficult to draw a direct causal link between budget performance and economic growth, it is likely that improved budget performance, particularly in the areas of transparency, accountability, and resource allocation, could contribute to more sustainable economic growth in the country.

The Future Of The Global Market For Natural Gas

The article presents an analysis of the current state of the global market for natural gas and some forecasts for its long-term development. Regional and sectoral aspects of gas production and consumption are considered. Particular attention is paid to the development priorities of the gas industry in the countries of East and South Asia. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations, experts from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Re-search Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically publish works on the evolution of world energy markets and the possible consequences for Russia and other countries. Nevertheless, in the foreseeable future none of the authors is likely to predict the period of peak gas demand even for the world's largest economies (with the exception of the European Union and de-veloped countries of Asia), which gives reason to call the twenty hundreds “the century of natural gas”.

Китайские перспективы российского газа

The subjects of the study are the current state and forecasts of the long—term development of the Chinese natural gas market. The purpose of the work is to establish prospects for increasing the supply of fossil fuels to the Chinese natural gas market. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market causes its destabilization. It is justi-fied based on the conclusions of experts from international and Russian organ-izations that it is currently impossible to predict in the foreseeable future the period of peak demand for gas in China, which gives reason to call the XXI century the time of transformation of the gas industry. Based on the results of the study factors of long-term dynamics of gas demand, an attempt is made to assess the possibilities of expanding Russia's participation in the Chinese gas market and proposals are formulated to im-prove the use of the potential for the development of energy cooperation be-tween China and Russia. It has been established that the most promising direction for increasing Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady increase in gas demand is predict-ed. Conclusions are drawn based on the conclusions of experts from interna-tional and Russian organizations that the increase in LNG exports will con-tribute to the inflow of capital to the gas market of our country, which will have a positive impact on entrepreneurial activity in related sectors of the economy.

Prospects for Russian gas in China

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390-560 billion cubic meters, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the long-term dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country's participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinces of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.

Operating Surplus and its Importance in Financing Local Government Tasks on the Example of Municipalities of the Małopolskie Voivodeship

The operating surplus is a positive subtraction result of the revenue and current expenditures of a local government units. The level of operating surplus determines the scope and quality of task implementation, as well as investment and development opportunities of a local government unit. In periods of economic slowdown, the surplus can serve as a kind of buffer and guarantee for the continuous and effective functioning of a local government unit. The aim of the research was to assess the operating surplus and the ability to perform local government tasks based on the balance of current revenue and expenditure in the current economic conditions. The analysis was carried out on the example of the municipalities of the Małopolskie Voivodeship in Poland, and the research period covered the years 2014-2021. According to the conducted research, the most dynamic situation in the operating surplus development took place in urban municipalities. These municipalities maintained the highest average level of operating surplus, but it was characterized by large fluctuations, e.g. in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This may result from the fact of high budget revenues and the widest range of obligatory tasks, as well as from the sensitivity to economic changes of budget revenues that are significant in cities. As a consequence, the implementation of tasks in a continuous manner and at a constant level of quality in periods of downturn may be at risk in the case of these cities, and the lower level of operating surplus may force these local governments to incur liabilities.

The future of the global market for natural gas

The author presents an analysis of the current state of the global market for natural gas and the forecast for its long-term development. In the article re-gional and sectoral aspects of gas production and consumption are considered, with particular attention paid to the development priorities of the gas industry in the countries of East and South Asia. During the periods of economic slowdown, the imbalance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to destabilization. To predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organi-zations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) regularly prepare works on the evolution of world energy markets and the implications for Russia. Almost all authors are not yet ready to specify in the foreseeable future the period of peak gas demand even for the world's largest economies (with the exception of the Eu-ropean Union and developed countries of Asia), which gives reason to call the 21st century a “natural gas century”.

Geopolitical uncertainty and sovereign bond yields of BRICS economies

PurposeThe politically unstable economies have high and volatile sovereign spread. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on sovereign bond yields.Design/methodology/approachThe sovereign yields at various maturities were decomposed into three factors, namely, level, slope and curvature, using the Dynamic Nelson Siegel model. The relationship between geopolitical uncertainty and the yield curve factors was examined using a quantile causality test.FindingsThe study found that at the extreme high-rate regime, geopolitical uncertainty causes the yield curve factors positively, indicating bond investors demand a higher return for geopolitical uncertainty. On the other hand, during extreme low-rate regime geopolitical causes the short- and medium-term factors negatively. The extreme low-rate regime indicates the period of economic slowdown. During this regime, the central banks try to reduce the short-term rates to stimulate growth.Originality/valueThis is one of the few papers that investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk and sovereign bond yields at the various maturities and interest rate regimes. Understanding the relationship between the geopolitical risk and short-term rates would help the central banks the efficacy of their policy actions. The long-term rates are influenced by the global investor preferences; examining the relationship with the long-term rates would help the investors frame the trading strategies.

The great stagnation and environmental sustainability: A multidimensional perspective

AbstractSince the 2008/09 Great Financial Crisis, we have witnessed a prolonged period of persistent global economic slowdown termed the “Great Stagnation”. This study examines how this “new normal” is associated with critical environmental dynamics (i.e., biodiversity, water, forest, agriculture, emissions) in areas and groups with different socio‐environmental characteristics (i.e., income groups, continents, forest cover, biome, environmental performance index). Mixed results are shown. For instance, we find a deterioration in terrestrial and marine biodiversity, especially in middle‐ and high‐income countries in Africa and Europe. This includes a reduction in the global fish stock, driven by countries in Africa. In contrast, the Great Stagnation is associated with reductions in PM2.5 (lower‐ and upper mid‐income countries), CH4 emissions (upper mid‐income countries and Europe), forest loss (upper mid‐income countries and Asia), and increases in species habitat index (across most groupings). Our evidence indicates that periods of economic slowdown, such as the great stagnation, on their own cannot ensure a transition to a sustainable socio‐environmental system and may be associated with significant negative environmental effects. Managing our transition to sustainability will require concerted policy efforts across multiple environmental domains, not only on carbon emissions, and during periods of both strong and weak economic growth rates.

Credit risk shocks and banking efficiency: a study based on a bootstrap-DEA model with nonperforming loans as bad output

PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of credit risk shocks on the evolution of banking efficiency in China.Design/methodology/approachThis paper introduces credit risk as a bad output into a bootstrap data envelopment analysis (bootstrap-DEA) model.FindingsDuring a credit risk shock, the efficiency levels of both state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks are significantly higher than those of urban/rural commercial banks, and the efficiency differences between these banks further increase during a period of economic slowdown. This paper also finds that the efficiencies of joint-stock commercial banks are the most sensitive to credit risk shocks; these banks are the first to be affected and the first to completely adjust. However, urban/rural commercial banks adjust very slowly.Originality/valueMost scholars still use the traditional DEA method to estimate China's banking efficiency. The bootstrap-DEA method is clearly able to obtain a more exact estimated efficiency score. In fact, in comparison with the bootstrap-DEA model, we found that the traditional DEA method overestimates China's banking efficiency, and this is an especially serious problem for those banks that have a high efficiency score.

An Impact of Business Cycles on Revenues and Expenditures of Communes in Poland

One of the basic functions of the state is mitigation of fluctuations in the business cycle. Increased activity in the period of economic slowdown should be demonstrated both by the state budget and local government units. However, the effectiveness of state intervention depends on the condition of the public finance sector. Therefore, in conditions of economic recovery, the state not only should balance its budget, but also should try to pay off at least part of the previously incurred liabilities. According to the authors, the permanent lack of financial discipline of the state, in the near future, will contribute to the budgetary imbalance of communes and will cause serious disruptions in the functioning of local self-governments.

Macroeconomic factors of economic growth in the European Union in 2000-2016: A multidimensional analysis

The creation of an effective growth policy requires the identification of its key determinants. The study used one of the methods of multidimensional analysis – discriminant analysis. It is widely used on a microeconomic scale, especially in the area of forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises, but in the area of economic growth, it has not been used in practice so far. In addition to the main objective of identifying the most important economic growth factors of the European Union countries in 2000-2016, the impact of the crisis and accession to the EU was examined. The statistical data sources were the databases of Eurostat and the Conference Board (Total Economy Database). The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the rate of Gross Domestic Product growth in the EU countries was determined by consumption, investment, export and labour productivity, and in periods of economic slowdown also public debt. The enlargement of the EU resulted in an increase in the importance of export.

Changes in the profitability of investment funds in Poland in the period 2005-2016

The paper examines the rates of return of three main types of investment funds in the period of from 2005 to June 2016. The analysis covers 120 equity, 55 bond and 60 mixed funds and is based on data taken from www.bossa.pl, www.analizy.pl and www.izfa.pl. The results of analysis indicate that macroeconomic conditions significantly shape fund returns, though the impact is diversified by fund type. Better stock market conditions benefit equity and mixed funds, and the periods of economic slowdown are favorable for safer funds, including bond and money market funds. For the entire period, equity funds achieved the highest returns, but with the highest risk. The opposite situation concerned bond funds. The average returns of every type of fund were higher than deposit rates – more than 50% of the funds outgained them.

Bank concentration and sectoral growth: Evidence from Chinese provinces

This paper studies the relationship between bank concentration and economic growth in China. It uses panel data for 31 provinces and 8 different sectors over the period 2001–2013. Using two-stage least squares regressions, we find that bank concentration negatively and significantly impacts sectoral growth for Chinese provinces. This finding has relevant policy implication for policy-makers and academics since it suggests that the low level of bank concentration in the Chinese financial sector promotes economic growth, a finding that this is highly relevant in this period of economic slowdown.

DETERMINANTS OF LABOUR DEMAND, A CASE OF MOGADISHU CITY, SOMALIA

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the determinants of labour demand, a case of Mogadishu City, Somalia.Methodology: The paper employed desktop methodology, which involved review of existing literature relating to the study topic. The design involves a review of existing studies relating to the research topic.Results: Based on the findings the study identified cost as a key determinant of labour demand, especially, in the formal sector. Previous studies indicate that most firms demand for cheap labour. The study also identified education as an important determinant of demand for labour in the World. Owing to the increasing global competitiveness, firms demand for highly skilled and competent workforce. Unfortunately, majority of workforce in developing countries such as Somalia do not have the right skills and competence. Further, the study concluded that a country with a stable economic growth enjoys high demand for labour. This is because the available workforce is skilled and competent enough. However, in developing countries such as Somalia, the demand for labour is very low. Somalia has experienced long period of economic slowdown, and this has affected the quality of workforce.Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: Based on the study findings the study recommends that the federal government of Somalia should adopt measures to regulate labour cost. The study also recommends that the government should adopt more measures to promote education. The study further recommends for international interventions to ensure that Somalia’s economy gets back on its fit. Stable economic growth will lead to increased demand for labour.

Do the Banks Perform Alike During Economic Slowdown?: A Study of Scheduled Commercial Banks of India

A healthy Banking system acts as an important catalyst for the economic development of a country. The global credit crisis precipitated by the collapse of the subprime fuelled U.S. housing bubble is the most recent incident which signifies the interrelation of the health of an economy and the health of its banks. In the era of globalisation, no country can insulate itself from any adverse developments in the international financial markets. However, India could insulate itself from these adverse developments to a certain extent because of little exposure to the investments in structured financial instruments and the timely response made by the Govt. of India and the Reserve Bank of India. In the above back drop this paper seeks to make a performance evaluation of scheduled commercial banks during the period of economic slowdown. The result shows that the foreign perform better than public sector as well as private sector banks.

The Impact of Acquisitions on Corporate Performance Results During the Period of Economic Slowdown: Case of Lithuania

An extensive scientific debate in various countries is inspired over the economic consequences of corporate acquisitions which are executed using different strategies and under different economic conditions. However there is a lack of researches that evaluate corporate acquisitions using different valuation techniques in Lithuania. Therefore in this paper, the impact of corporate acquisitions on profitability ratios and economic value added of the Lithuanian companies during the period of economic slowdown is evaluated. The research sample includes Lithuanian companies, listed at the NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchange, which acquired at least one company during the period of 2008 – 2010. The impact of acquisitions is estimated by profitability ratios and economic value added. The research results evidence that both profitability ratios and economic value added decrease during short-term after an acquisition in majority cases. However the recovery can be observed during the last quarter, indicating that acquisitions are beneficial during the economic slowdown.

Urban Regeneration and Community Survival in Postwar Japan

As we can see it written on the fabric of their townscapes, Japan’s cities have been in crisis for generations. In regional Japan, economic stagnation, the decline of agriculture on their peripheries, and the migration en masse of cohorts of school graduates to work on the Pacific coast left urban centres underpopulated and often lacking in social and economic vibrancy. Even in the more prosperous cities, including Tokyo and Kyoto, a programme of relentless economic development at all costs, albeit interrupted every generation or so by periods of economic slowdown, has delivered a steady dose of physical demolition and psychic instability that is reflected in the hodge-podge of building styles, construction qualities, and alternating pockets of cohesiveness and disarray that comprise the patterns of their urban texture. Yet over the course of nearly seven decades since the end of the Pacific War, Japanese in the Tokyo metropolis, in Kyoto and Kobe, and in the regions have attempted to respond to this crisis of physical and cultural dislocation. Each in their own way, the authors of the four books under discussion here attempt to chart the ways in which Japanese have sought to achieve the elusive goal of ‘livable cities’, in the term used by Sorensen and Funck, marked by the active involvement of citizens in city planning processes and efforts toward community sustainability.