Does Russian gas have a future in China?

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as prospects for increasing the supply of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030, China can catch up and overtake Europe in gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in the Middle Kingdom will be 390–560 billion cubic meters. m, which is almost 1.5 times higher than the 2022 level. During a period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand on the global hydrocarbon market leads to destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare works on the evolution of global energy markets and the consequences for the largest countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak gas demand in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to call the 21st century the century of gas transformation.