Period Of Economic Recession Research Articles

Crude Birth Rate in Croatia: local-scale variability, spatial patterns, and trends from 2001 to 2020

This study investigates the spatio-temporal variability of the Crude Birth Rate in Croatia between 2001 and 2020. The local-scale data covers 556 spatial units. Additionally, the data covers categories by type and size of unit and their respective regions. The study is based on descriptive and spatial statistics (Global and Local Moran's indices). The results reveal two main processes in the long-term trends of birth rates in Croatia: convergence at a low birth rate and a significant decrease in spatial autocorrelation. The most intense convergence took place between 2009 and 2017, mainly overlapping with the economic recession period. The process was also observed at the regional level. Spatial autocorrelation decreased between 2001 and 2016, followed by a slight increase. In the initial years, the main cause could be modernization, and later the economic recession and the subsequent emigration wave that followed Croatia's accession to the European Union. Finally, the continuation of the polarization between the center and the periphery is evident.

Global performance strategies in leading Japanese automotive organisations

The purpose of this paper is to examine the correlation between the evaluation of performance strategies in leading automotive organisations located in Japan during four economically significant periods. Furthermore, the article aims to determine key performance factors that have had an influence on automotive organisations in the most recent and current period. The sample group includes 14 large and very large corporations. This paper draws on both theoretical and empirical research. A questionnaire was created as part of the research and was pre-tested in order to increase its internal validity. The actual survey was conducted through semi-structured interviews with managers at the top management level. To address the aim, non-parametric statistical methods have been used (Kruskal-Wallis test and Spearman correlation), mainly due to the relatively small testing sample of companies and the Shapiro-Wilk test failing at the five percent level of significance. Additionally, exploratory data analysis methods have been applied. Despite the noticeable deviation in the period of economic recession, the results indicate an increase in the significance of the individual factors in the periods in question. Another interesting finding is the growing power of factors oriented at innovation and the future environment. This means that, for the companies, measuring these factors will be crucial henceforth.

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY AND WEIGHT OF THE NON-OIL SECTOR IN THE ECONOMY OF AZERBAIJAN

After the collapse of the USSR, the socialist system collapsed in Azerbaijan, as well as in other allied states. That collapse completely destroyed almost all sectors of the country’s economy, especially the non-oil sector. This means that the period of recession in both the oil and non-oil sectors in the country reached its peak. The stagnation of the country’s economy was felt in many areas. It should be noted that agriculture, tourism, manufacturing, and engineering reached such a decline that the country became dependent on imports in most areas. The transition to economic development after such a tense situation in the country’s economy was remembered by our economists by highlighting three historical stages of the development of Azerbaijani economy in the period after the restoration of independence. The following stages ca be singled out: 1) A period of economic recession, 1991-1994. 2) A period of stability and consistent growth beginning, 1994-2003. 3) A period of dynamic development, 2003- until now. The period from 1991 to 1994 is considered the first period for the economy development. During that period, the political and socio-economic situation in the country became more complicated. According to the statistics provided for this period, during 1991-1994, the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 16.5 per cent annually. It is also known that in Azerbaijan, especially in the non-oil sector, a decrease in industrial production by 10% in 1991, 37% in 1992 and 50% in 1993 compared to 1985 was recorded. As a result of the collapse of the USSR, the production areas were almost completely out of order, and as a result, the level of unemployment increased to a high level. Again, referring to the statistics of that period, we can say that in 1991-1995, the monetary income of the population in real terms decreased by 3.3 times, and monetary income per capita decreased on average by 3.6 times. In parallel with this, the wages of the population decreased by 5.7 times. Since the times of the USSR, in agriculture, which has strong production and economic potential for Azerbaijan, the cultivated area of the main crops, the number of livestock has decreased sharply, and the level of production has almost fallen to the state of recession. Comparing 1996 with 1990 on the basis of given statistical data, it can be concluded that in 1996 agricultural production in the Republic decreased by more than 2-3 times. In parallel with this, the tense situation in agriculture also had a negative impact on the processing sector. Based on the calculations, it was found that in 1995, compared with 1993, the production of cereals and legumes decreased by 19.7%, cotton production – by 3.7%, tobacco production – by 74%, vegetable production – by 13%, fruit production – by 6.4%. At the same time, that trend was observed in meat and eggs production. During that period, meat production decreased by 10 thousand tons, egg production – by 128.7 million units. It was found than the processes that took place in Azerbaijan in 1991-1994 led to the fact that the country’s economy, especially the non-oil sector, collapsed on a large scale.

Feminidad y neoliberalismo en las series televisivas españolas de éxito durante la crisis económica (2008-2015)

Este artículo evalúa los modelos de subjetividad femenina en las series españolas más vistas en el periodo de crisis económica, como relatos interpretativos de las tensiones ideológicas subyacentes a un contexto donde se replantea el rol de la mujer. El análisis cualitativo, aplicado a diez coprotagonistas de estas ficciones, muestra personajes femeninos carentes de liderazgo y proactividad en la esfera pública, cuyas competencias naturales se circunscriben a la resiliencia para adaptarse a la austeridad sobrevenida, y que actúan como contraposición moral del emprendedor masculino, reactualizando estereotipos de género en el imaginario neoliberal.

Occupational Mobility and Chronic Health Conditions in Middle and Later Life: A Systematic Review.

Occupational mobility at various stages in the life course may have a cumulative impact on health outcomes and trajectory. This study aims to (1) systematically review empirical evidence regarding the impact of intergenerational and intra-generational occupational mobility on chronic health conditions in middle and later life; and (2) assess the collective evidence on the health consequences of different types of occupational mobility. A systematic review of literature was carried out by searching three databases (PubMed, PsycINFO, and SocINDEX) and the reference lists. Eligible studies examined the impact of occupational mobility on at least one chronic health condition among adults aged 35years or above. The quality of each included study was assessed by standardized tools. Out of 170 identified publications, 16 studies based on 12 independent data sets met the inclusion criteria. There is moderately strong evidence that downward intergenerational occupational mobility and stable low occupational status across generations were associated with worse chronic health conditions. The relationships to chronic health conditions were more pronounced for intergenerational occupational mobility than for intra-generational occupational mobility. Gender differences were observed in the relationship between occupational mobility and health. Career advancement interventions should target both the career starters and older employees. More generous unemployment insurance systems are suggested in less egalitarian countries, especially during economic recession periods. Future studies of occupational mobility should give more attention to women and people from developing and Eastern countries.

The effect of financial distress on capital structure: The case of Brazilian banks

This study investigates the effect of financial distress on capital structure, considering banking performance variables and the economic environment. The analysis is based on balanced panel data for Brazilian listed banks, using accounting and non-accounting information on a quarterly basis from September 2009 to December 2016. This study uncovers evidence that the effect of financial distress on capital structure is context-dependent. During normal times, the findings support the argument for higher bank capital in times of financial distress. However, in periods of economic recession, the effect of bank distress on capital was found to be negative, indicating that the impact of banks’ risk on capital is especially important during such periods of market uncertainty. The findings are robust to alternative estimation methods and to alternative measures of risk. This study provides insights for the design of prudent regulation and the supervision of banks, especially for emerging markets economies, considering their highly uncertain environment with widely varying rates of growth and inflation.

Cost-cutting actions, employment relations and workplace grievances: Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis

Periods of economic recession are typically accompanied by the use of cost-cuttingactions, such as wage cuts or freezes, increased workloads and reduced training expenditures. While such actions are expected to boost performance, at least in the short-term, their effects on employee attitudes and behaviours at work have been the subject of much research. In this study, we examine how management's use of cost-cutting actions could have a detrimental impact on two aspects of the employment relations climate—the quality of employee–management relations and the level of employees’ trust in management; further, we investigate how these relationships might lead to an increase in employee complaints against their organisations. Using multilevel data from 21,981 employees in 1,923 workplaces, we show that the use of cost-cutting actions violates the psychological contract, which, in turn, contributes to strained relations between employees and management. However, in workplaces where employees are actively involved in decision-making, cost-cutting actions are less likely to have a negative impact. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our study using psychological contract theory.

Counter-Urban Activity Out of Copenhagen: Who, Where and Why?

While migration is often understood as movement towards cities, it can also assume another direction, traditionally termed counter-urbanisation. This paper contributes to the study of counter-urbanisation by investigating data on settlement patterns to places outside commuting distance to the Copenhagen labour market. Counter-urban migration outside of the Copenhagen commuting area is compared with out-migration from Copenhagen to suburbs and commuting areas in the period from 2005 to 2020, reflecting periods of both economic growth and recession. In this paper, we explore this development in terms of the numbers and characteristics of migrants moving out of commuting distance in comparison to those migrants who leave the city to settle in the suburbs or within commuting distance. The quantitative findings are combined with qualitative findings from a survey of the motives of migrants. In line with earlier studies, this study finds that family, friends, place-specific relations and job opportunities are important motives for moving. However, the results also show that an increasing share of migrants have higher education. This will contribute to the future economic and social sustainability of rural and peripheral places in Denmark.

Forecasting crude oil volatility with uncertainty indicators: New evidence

This paper uses multiple uncertainty indicators to forecast monthly WTI crude oil volatility and compare the predictive performance of combination forecast methods, dimension reduction techniques and two least absolute shrinkage and selection operator augmented MIDAS (MIDAS-LASSO and MS-MIDAS-LASSO) models. Some noteworthy findings are observed by using the MIDAS-RV extensions. First, among all uncertainty indicators, the U.S. petroleum market equity market volatility tracker index (PMEMV) statistically has the best short-term predictive power for the volatility of crude oil market, especially during low volatility, non-crisis and economic expansion periods. However, the geopolitical risk index (GPR) performs better in predicting long-term crude oil volatility than other uncertainty indicators, and it also performs better than other uncertainty indicators in forecasting short-term high volatility of crude oil market. In addition, the financial stress index (FSI) has better predictive ability than other uncertainty indicators during periods of crisis and economic recession. Finally, the newly constructed MS-MIDAS-LASSO and MIDAS-LASSO models always have much higher forecasting accuracy than combination forecast methods, dimension reduction techniques as well as the best MIDAS-RV-X models, with MS-MIDAS-LASSO model having greater forecasting accuracy than the MIDAS-LASSO model in most cases. This empirical finding is confirmed by a variety of robustness checks.

Assessing the Islamic Bank Financing During Economic Recession: The Role of Stimulus Regulation POJK Number 11/POJK.03/2020

This study examines the role of the POJK stimulus policy No. 11/POJK.03/2020 on the decision of financing in Indonesia Islamic banking. Furthermore, the study aims to be able to assess the financing behavior of Islamic banks. Accordingly, we design a quantitative approach with panel data analysis method. With case studies on 12 Islamic Commercial Banks with a time period from quarter 1-2017 to quarter 4-2020. We found that the total financing of Islamic banks experience significant changes after the period of economic recession that hit Indonesia. Then, the study found that the role of stimulus regulation has a positive and significant effect on the distribution of total bank financing. This shows that the stimulus regulation through financing relaxation or financing restructuring does not prevent banks from continuing to channel financing to the public. This study also found that Islamic banks do not behave pro-cyclicality behavior towards the business cycle.

Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession.

—A simulation model of the Russian unemployment social protection system is developed and used to study the impact of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, demographic processes, and the increase in retirement age on federal spending on unemployment benefits. Trends of overall and registered unemployment across various socio-demographic groups in 1992–2020 are analyzed, with special attention paid to periods of economic recession and recovery. The identified patterns are used to develop modeling scenarios. Calculations show that in the unfavorable scenario government spending on unemployment benefits will increase many times. As a possible solution to the problem, it is proposed to convert the unemployment social protection system to insurance principles. The time frame in which reforming the system would be less expensive for the federal budget is defined.

The Analysis of Latvia Households’ Consumption Expenditure in Scope of Sustainable Development

Basing on critical analysis of Latvia households’ consumption expenditure structure during the period from 2003 until 2010, the authors have identified the main tendencies of changes and characterized the main macroeconomic indicators, which have seriously influenced the consumption structure during different phases of economic cycle. The authors have applied econometric methods to characterize the correlation of particular consumption expenditure groups’ proportion with households’ consumption expenditure. The analysis enabled the authors to detect, which consumption expenditure groups exactly are the most important for ensuring the welfare level, and E. Engel’s regularity was also discussed in this respect. The analysis of the data obtained in scope of the households’ member survey enabled the authors to identify the main directions of consumer behaviour changes during the economic recession period and present proposals for improvement of consumption as a significant indicator of country’s welfare and sustainable development.

Investigating the salmon bias effect among international immigrants in Sweden: a register-based open cohort study.

BackgroundStudies of migration and health have hypothesized that immigrants may emigrate when they develop poor health (salmon bias effect), which may partially explain the mortality advantage observed among immigrants in high-income countries. We evaluated the salmon bias effect by comparing the health of immigrants in Sweden who emigrated with those who remained, while also exploring potential variation by macro-economic conditions, duration of residence and region of origin.MethodsA longitudinal, open cohort study design was used to assess risk of emigration between 1992 and 2016 among all adult (18+ years) foreign-born persons who immigrated to Sweden between 1965 and 2012 (n = 1 765 459). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was used to measure health status, using information on hospitalizations from the Swedish National Patient Register. Poisson regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for emigrating from Sweden.ResultsImmigrants with low (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.76–0.90) moderate (RR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.62–0.80) and high (RR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.48–0.82) levels of comorbidities had decreased risk of emigration relative to those with no comorbidities. There was no evidence of variation by health status in emigration during periods of economic recession or by duration of residence. Individuals with low to moderate levels of comorbidities from some regions of origin had an increased risk of emigration relative to those with no comorbidities.ConclusionsThe study results do not support the existence of a salmon bias effect as a universal phenomenon among international immigrants in Sweden.

A VIABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP EDUCATION AS AN ANTIDOTE FOR ERADICATION OF POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG YOUTHS IN NIGERIA

Nigeria is passing through a period of uncertainty and pervasive economic recession which has further aggravated the problem of poverty and unemployment among Nigerian youths. These jobless youths take solace in all form of atrocities and social vices that pose a serious threat to sustainable development of the nation. This research took a cursory look at the concepts of poverty, youth unemployment and viable entrepreneurship education. It highlighted the lofty objectives of viable entrepreneurship education in Nigeria. The various factors responsible for poverty and youth employment in Nigeria were identified. Attention was also directed to the role of viable entrepreneurship education in eradicating poverty and youth unemployment in Nigeria. Based on the findings, it was recommended, among others, that the curriculum of educational institutions in Nigeria should be more pragmatic and have built-in-job training programmes which would enable all students to acquire relevant entrepreneurial skills required for self-employment, job and wealth creation and poverty eradication.

АКСИОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ ФУНКЦИЯ ПРЕСС-КОНФЕРЕНЦИЙ ПРЕЗИДЕНТА В ПУБЛИЧНОЙ ПОЛИТИКЕ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ РОССИИ

The big press conferences of the President of Russia over the past two decades has become a tool for expressing the official position, public goal-setting, as well as a kind of «reconciliation» of the values of the political elite and Russian society. In this paper we purpose to identify value connotations in the discursive practices of participants of these press conferences in the 2001-2021. We want to complement existing empirical studies of public policy and adapt well-known theories of political axiology to Russian practice. We use such methods as cross-cultural research; content analysis; clustering and mapping; analysis of secondary sociological data; analysis of macroeconomic statistics; correlation analysis etc. We revealed the strengthening of the materialistic component of public discourse (by Ronald Inglehart) during periods of economic crisis. Generational gap is also influence on the structure of political values. Also we confirmed the Geert Hofstede’s thesis about the collectivist values dominance and high power distance in Russian society. Russian political discourse gravitates towards both egalitarian values (by Shalom Schwartz) and liberal values (by Milton Rokeach). We found a negative statistical relationships between the frequency of public mention of political values and their approval by the respondents, as well as between the frequency of using axiologemes with the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators. The increase in the frequency of mentioning political values during periods of economic recession we interpret as attempts by the elite to rally around the flag in the face of economic difficulties. Persistent negative connotations between the public voicing of political values and their perception by respondents indicate the existence of a latent value conflict between the elite and society, which manifests itself in an increase in the demand for change.

References to the Russan Society’s Values in the Presidential Addresses to the Federal Assembly

The digital transformation intensifies a devaluation of traditional institutions and the need to search for new integrating factors which are called upon to be the values shared by the society. We purpose to identify the value connotations in the discursive practices of the Presidential Addresses to the Federal Assembly from 1994-2021. We use such methods as the identification and classification of values by cross-cultural research; content analysis; clustering and mapping; analysis of secondary sociological data from representative public opinion polls conducted in the analyzed years; analysis of macroeconomic statistics; correlation analysis, etc. We revealed the strengthening of the materialistic component of public discourse (Ronald Inglehart) during periods of economic crisis. We also confirmed the Geert Hofstede thesis of the dominance of collectivist values in Russian society, but not the high power distance. Russian political discourse gravitates towards both egalitarian values (Shalom Schwartz) and liberal values (Milton Rokeach). Persistent negative connotations between the public voicing of values and their perception by respondents indicate the existence of a latent value conflict between the elite and society, manifesting itself in an increase in the demand for change. We interpret the increase in the frequency of mentioning political values during periods of economic recession as attempts by the elite to rally around the flag, and also as a consequence of the gradual filling of values with new meanings in the mass consciousness. Persistent negative connotations between the the public voicing of political values and their perception by respondents indicate the existence of a latent value conflict between the elite and society, manifesting itself in an increase in the demand for change. The article both complements existing empirical studies of public policy and adapts well-known theories of political axiology to Russian practice.

DOWNLOAD PDF DOWNLOAD XML AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF PROFESSIONAL ETHICS ON THE PROCUREMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN NIGERIA

The construction industry is a unique industry given the nature of its products and the huge financial requirements necessary for the actualization of these products. The role of the industry as an economic regulator cannot be overemphasized as evident in the amount of spending observed in the industry during periods of economic boom or recession; moreover, the product of the construction industry is consumed by virtually every other industry in the economy. It is common knowledge that construction products are complex in nature and require substantial amount of finance to actualize. Quantity surveyors are construction industry professionals saddled with responsibility of ensuring financial probity in the conceptualization and execution of both new works and refurbishment works in the construction industry; they are critical stakeholders in the construction industry procurement system as they are quite visible in the processes leading to the selection of a suitable contractor. To this end, this paper seeks to portray the critical role of professional ethics in the procurement procedure for construction contracts in the Nigerian construction industry. Recommendations were made on what must be done to eliminate unethical practices in the procurement process including the need for continuous training and re-training of professionals in the construction industry by respective professional bodies to ensure that relevant ethical standards are imbibed this the authors believe will give impetus to sustainable development.

Decomposition the driving force of regional electricity consumption in Japan from 2001 to 2015

Investigating electricity consumption is vital for identifying the driving forces for national onsite energy use and pathways for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, before any electricity conservation measures are implemented, a well understanding of the driving forces behind sectoral electricity consumption variation are of great importance. Therefore, this research constructed an assessment framework on how electricity consumption reflects and responds to social and natural events, and how far the Japanese electricity consumption decouples economic development by estimating the changes in electricity consumption in Japan from 2001 to 2015. The results revealed that electricity consumption intensity and economic activity effect were both dominant but obtained opposite impacts in terms of electricity consumption changes. Moreover, differences in driving forces that caused spatial variance for regional changes in electricity consumption were found during the economic recession and recovery periods. The decoupling status showed that the decoupling degree in Japan changed from an extensive negative decoupling state to a weak decoupling state during the study periods. Subsequently, the results also shed light on how to mitigate regional electricity consumption stress sustainably.

Social Rejection, Family Acceptance, Economic Recession, and Physical and Mental Health of Sexual Minorities

IntroductionThe study examines associations between social rejection, family acceptance, economic recession, and physical and mental health outcomes for sexual minorities in Greece. This is the first Greek study to evaluate the concept of minority stress theory for sexual minorities. In addition, this is among the first international studies to examine whether, during a period of economic recession, sexual minorities experience deteriorated physical and mental health.MethodsUtilizing two panel datasets (n = 866) covering the periods 2013–2014 and 2018–2019, the study examines whether social rejection, family acceptance, and economic conditions bear an association with self-rated physical and mental health.ResultsSocial rejection bears a negative association with physical and mental health. Family acceptance shares a positive association with physical and mental health. Periods characterized by worse economic conditions (2013–2014 versus 2018–2019) correlate with a decline in sexual minorities’ physical and mental health. It is found that women, trans people, people without higher education degrees, unemployed people, and relatively poor people experience worse physical and mental health than the corresponding reference categories.ConclusionsSexual minorities who experienced societal rejections, such as unfair treatment in educational, workplace environments, and/or public and health services prompted deteriorated physical and mental health. Sexual minorities who experienced acceptance from their families over their sexual orientation status, experienced better physical and mental health. Moreover, during periods of increased aggregate unemployment, the physical and mental health status of sexual minorities was deteriorated.Policy ImplicationsAntidiscrimination policies help reduce homophobic incidents and positively impact sexual/gender identity minorities’ progression, self-esteem, income, and well-being. Public health services should ensure that policies are inclusive of the physical and mental health needs of sexual/gender identity minority groups. Reducing stigma and addressing financial hardships for minority population groups should form part of the policymakers’ agenda and this study provides new evidence on the subject matter.

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF E-COMMERCE DURING A PERIOD OF ECONOMIC CRISIS IN BRAZIL (2014-2019)

Changing the concern of consumers has required excellent results from organizations with available resources. In this context, e-commerce, a segment in full growth, presents high billing projections during the years of analysis in which Brazil faced economic recession. Therefore, the objective of this study was to verify, through accounting statement indicators, the economic and financial performance of the 5 largest publicly traded companies - B2W, Magazine Luiza, Via Varejo, Lojas Renner and Saraiva - that operate in electronic commerce, during the period of economic recession faced by the country. In the theoretical section, the main financial and economic indicators were addressed and a brief history of e-commerce in Brazil was portrayed. Furthermore, the analysis of the indicators of these companies in the period from 2014 to 2019 has been discussed. It was found that the companies had an increase in revenue, even during the recession period, but with an irrelevant performance in the net result. The main factors of this effect were: the need to finance their operations with onerous short-term resources, which entails financial expenses, leading to greater indebtedness with third-party capital in the short term. The low gross margin has also been noticed due to the cost of goods sold, and, finally, the increase in operating expenses and the high level of investment in distribution and logistics.