Period Of Turmoil Research Articles

Growing Up Together: Teenage Pregnancy and Motherhood in the Israeli New Orthodox Sector as Reflected in Drawings and Interviews

This article discusses the experiences of 14 Jewish New Orthodox teenagers (over 18 years of age) who gave birth out of wedlock and raised their children as adolescents. Drawings of the mother–child relationship and semistructured interviews with the mothers were used to assess their perceptions of parenthood, and their perceptions of their own parents' relationship with them. The analysis was based on the principles of grounded theory. Three themes emerged from the data analysis, which was based on grounded theory: (a) factors leading to teenage pregnancy out of wedlock, (b) parental characteristics of New Orthodox teenage girls, and (c) pregnancy and motherhood in adolescence, and in particular, coping and growth versus self-destruction. The findings showed that becoming pregnant for a religious teen may be experienced as a period of turmoil and generate feelings of ostracism and loss. Assistance during pregnancy and early parenting support emerged as insufficient. The discussion centers on ways to provide more information and awareness about sexuality and contraception in the New Orthodox community. Counseling and support services should be more easily available and accessible to religious girls in these communities.

Tracking the relationship between euro area equities and sovereign bonds

This paper explores the relationship between stocks and sovereign bonds by means of the asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis (ADCCA). Drawing on data from 1999.01 to 2018.09 of the first wave of euro area countries, the full sample is divided into three subsets in accordance with economic and financial features. Some findings arise with striking implications for investors and policymakers. Firstly, empirical results show that cross-correlations differ from country to country, depending on the sub-period under analysis and on the time scale. Secondly, likewise within country estimates, cross-country linkages may point to fragmentation in the euro area with agents moving away from financial assets of lower-rated countries to invest in more robust economies in periods of turmoil. Thirdly, there is evidence of asymmetry since 'flight-to-quality' movements seem to be more relevant than 'flight-to-yield' episodes. Finally, while relationships were globally bidirectional until mid-2007, new causality patterns arose with the financial crisis.

Introduction

The seven articles in this thematic issue address written responses to different periods of turmoil that impacted Muslim and Christian societies in the western Mediterranean from the ninth to the sixteenth centuries. By highlighting the complexities of the literary artifacts produced in Sicily, al-Andalus, and North Africa, it offers new perspectives on the interactions between Islam and Christendom at a time of traumatic transition from one political and religious hegemony to another, as reflected in a variety of genres: apologetic and hagio-graphical works, interreligious polemics, military and diplomatic dispatches, historiography, travel narratives, and romance. These analyses reveal a cultural panorama in which "internal otherness" and religious rivalry are both generative forces within a Mediterranean of fungible linguistic and social boundaries, where traditional genres are inflected and re-invented and new vernacular forms arise from multicultural and multi-confessional encounters.

Stock Market Linkages and Spillover Effects: An Empirical Analysis of Select Asian Markets

This study tries to find the dynamic stock market linkages among 12 Asian countries over the period January 3, 2000 to June 20, 2017. We employ ADCC-GARCH model to study the conditional correlations and Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index methodology to investigate return and volatility spillovers across the sample markets [1]. Based on ADCC results, we find that Singapore exhibits highest conditional correlation with other sample markets. Dynamic conditional correlations across the markets amplify during the crisis periods, pointing to financial contagion. The findings under Diebold-Yilmaz framework corroborate with the ADCC-GARCH model results as Singapore is found to be the dominant market based on both return and volatility spillovers. Inter-temporal pattern of spillovers reveals that cross-market linkages intensify during the turmoil periods. Our results have important implications for international investors and policymakers. The study contributes to financial integration literature for Asian markets.

Time-Varying Dependence in European Equity Markets: A Contagion and Investor Sentiment Driven Analysis

In the light of the global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis, this paper investigates the dependence patterns in 24 European equity markets from January 5, 2004 to July 1, 2016. We further examine whether these stressful events trigger contagion. Given that investors tend to behave irrationally in turmoil periods, we add to the literature by studying the effect of investor sentiment on markets correlations. Our results reveal heterogeneity in the time-varying dependence and across markets. Contagion is confirmed in turbulent times, a spillover effect from periphery euro area being detected. We find that similar sentiments increase correlations, especially in crises, suggesting that investors’ perceptions are an important channel of moving markets in the same direction. Furthermore, negative sentiments, such as fear or pessimism, amplify the linkages between markets. Our results offer useful insights to policy makers for reacting timely to financial shocks and for designing a more integrated market.

Testing for financial contagion: New evidence from the European debt crisis

This paper tested for a contagion effect between the foreign exchange market of the Eurozone and the markets of seven emerging and growth leading economies - EAGLEs - during the European Debt Crisis. For this purpose, we used the daily domestic currency per unit of US Dollar of seven EAGLEs countries from 01.01.2007 to 31.12.2012. The tranquil period was from 01.01.2007 to 19.10.2009 and the turmoil period was from 20.10.2009 to 31.12.2012. We found a contagion effect between the foreign exchange market of the Eurozone and the markets of Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. The evidence suggests that foreign trade is likely to be the source of the contagion during the European Debt Crisis. The evidence presented in this paper is important for policy makers, international investors, and portfolio managers.

The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic: A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs

The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic was the first epidemic of the 21st century to pose a threat to global health and generate considerable panic across the globe. Fortunately, due to the rapid containment of the epidemic, both the harm to the public’s health and economic losses were not as considerable as many feared they might be. After a short period of economic turmoil, lasting a few months, normal patterns of economic activity were resumed. However, during this period there were dramatic reductions in air travel and tourism, and leisure and/or hospitality services in the areas affected by SARS. These losses were driven by public avoidance, which contributed to a disproportionate aggregate disease prevention cost. This has led to concerns that an outbreak exhibiting higher mortality rates could result in a catastrophic impact on the global economy caused by even more drastic behavioral responses. These behavioral responses were related to individual perspectives about the risk of contraction and death, as well as the perceived costs and benefits of disease avoidance measures. How individuals form these avoidance responses has a significant role in determining the pathway of an epidemic. When situating these considerations within the trend of increasing emergence of zoonotic diseases and increasing globalization, analyses of the behavioral reaction to the SARS epidemic are potentially important. With this in mind, critical analysis of government intervention mechanisms is considered to address how cost-effective intervention might alter behavioral responses to lead to more positive outcomes.

Corporate Bond ETFs: Innovative, but Not Inconsequential

This paper examines whether ETFs are a unique source of corporate bond fragility. Relative to mutual funds, ETFs cater to high-liquidity-demand investors, facilitate positive feedback strategies, and transmit outflows to corporate bonds via near proportional trading. Comparing yield spread changes of bonds from the same issuer, we show that ETFs create flow-induced pressure during the Taper Tantrum, a period of market turmoil. Redemptions used to maintain the relative price efficiency of the largest and most liquid ETFs lead to significantly higher yield spreads for 4 months before reverting. The pattern indicates ETFs amplify the effects of negative fundamental shocks.

Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility: New Insights on the Austerity Versus Growth Debate

This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are studied in this paper using state-of-the-art TVP-VAR modelling techniques applied to the analysis of six selected economies: France, Japan, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom (UK), and the Unites States of America (USA). We confirm the heterogeneity of Okun's coefficient across country, and its time-varying nature across time, showing in addition its fluctuation around a reference long-run value. We document a significant short-run impact of fiscal shocks on Okun's trade-off which, based on the experience of the Global Financial Crisis, becomes larger in periods of economic turmoil. Okun's coefficient is most volatile in Spain and most stable in Sweden and Japan, with France, UK and USA in between. Policy wise, we claim that austerity policies may have unexpected adverse effects on job creation if implemented during slumps, precisely when the labor market sensitivity with respect to the performance of the product market is likely to be more acute.

魏晉南北朝·唐代의 손, 손톱 미용문화

Hands are referred to as a “second face,” offering clues into a variety of social information about a person’s personality, occupation, etc. In China, there are several medieval records that depict the tradition of nail dyeing, and in literature, fair, long and slender hands and nails are suggested as a female beauty ideal. This article sketches out the characteristics of hand and nail beautification culture of the Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern Dynasties and Tang Dynasty, through examining 『New Songs from a Jade Terrace』, an anthology of poetry from the Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern Dynasties that offers insight into the research of hand and nail care culture of the time, as well as 『Tang Poetry』, the pinnacle of Chinese literature during the Tang Dynasty. The Wei, Jun, Northern and Southern Dynasties were a period of social turmoil, with the fusion of Hu (non-Han) and Han, and Taoism spreading. 『New Songs from a Jade Terrace』 features several variations of describing fair and slender hands and fingers.The Tang Dynasty was the most powerful and prosperous in Chinese history, driven by an open foreign policy, internationalism, and the strong influence of foreign cultures. We can see slender, long, fair hands and fingernails being depicted in the illustrations of 『Tang Poetry』 and know the characteristics of the hand and nail beautification culture of the time through the descriptions of clear and red fingernails, and the tradition of nail dying using touch-me-nots.

Uncertainty across volatility regimes

SummaryWe propose a nonrecursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks that exploits breaks in the volatility of macroeconomic variables and is novel in the literature on uncertainty. This approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in the empirical literature: Is uncertainty a cause or effect of decline in economic activity? Does the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity change across macroeconomic regimes? Results based on a small‐scale vector autoregression with US monthly data suggest that (i) uncertainty is an exogenous source of decline of economic activity, and (ii) the effects of uncertainty shocks amplify in periods of economic and financial turmoil.

Volatility in frontier markets: a Multivariate GARCH analysis

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the existence of volatility spillover effect in frontier markets. This study also examines whether any linkages exist among these markets or not.Design/methodology/approachMonthly data of regional frontier markets, from 2009 to 2016, are analyzed using Multivariate GARCH (BEKK and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC)) models.FindingsThe result of cointegration test shows that the sample frontier markets are not linked in long run, and Granger causality test reveals that the markets under consideration do not cause each other even in the short run. BEKK test says that the effect of the arrival of shock from the own market does not last for longer, whereas shock from other markets lasts with the stronger persistence, and according to DCC test, the volatility spillover exists for all the markets.Practical implicationsThe results of present study suggest that the frontier markets are not cointegrated in the long run as well as in the short run, which opens the doors for long-term investments in these markets in future, which may lead to decent returns. Long-term investors may draw the benefits from including the financial assets in their portfolios from these non-integrated frontier markets; nevertheless, they have to consider and implement diversification and hedging strategies during the period of financial turmoil, so as to protect themselves against economic and financial distress.Originality/valueSignificant work has been done on developed, developing and emerging markets but frontier markets are not explored much so far. This paper is an attempt to see the status of frontier stock markets as potential financial markets for diversification benefits.

Toxic releases from an industry in decline: Environmental trends in Maine's pulp and paper sector

AbstractHistorically, the pulp and paper industry has been a cornerstone of Maine's economy, but it is also a major generator of pollution to the state's air and waterways. The industry has been in decline for several decades, with the most recent period of economic turmoil taking place in the aftermath of the Great Recession. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, pulp and paper manufacturing is among the top sources of the release of toxic chemicals. Hence, one might expect that as the sector declines, the by‐production of toxic pollution from pulp and paper mills would also decline. However, a comparison of the mills’ releases of seven major toxic chemicals in the year immediately before—2010—and the year immediately after—2016—the latest round of mill closures, shows that the absolute quantities of industrial releases of some toxic chemicals remained steady or increased over the amounts released in the precrisis period. More encouragingly, in the latter period, a greater portion of releases of toxic chemicals were managed in ways other than direct discharge to air and water.

Building multivariate Sato models with linear dependence

The increased trading in multi-name financial products has required the development of state-of-the-art multivariate models. These models should be computationally tractable and, at the same time, flexible enough to explain the stylized facts of asset log-returns and of their dependence structure. The popular class of multivariate Lévy models provides a variety of tractable models, but suffers from one major shortcoming: Lévy models can replicate single-name derivative prices for a given time-to-maturity, but not for the whole range of quoted strikes and maturities, especially during periods of market turmoil. Moreover, there is a significant discrepancy between the moment term structure of Lévy models and the one observed in the market. Sato processes on the other hand exhibit a moment term structure that is more in line with empirical evidence and allow for a better replication of single-name option price surfaces. In this paper, we propose a general framework for multivariate models characterized by independent and time-inhomogeneous increments, where the asset log-return processes at unit time are modeled as linear combinations of independent self-decomposable random variables, where at least one self-decomposable random variable is shared by all the assets. As examples, we consider two general subclasses within this new framework, where we assume a normal variance-mean mixture with a one-sided tempered stable mixing density or a difference of one-sided tempered stable laws for the distribution of the risk factors. Particular attention is given to the models' ability to explain the asset dependence structure. A numerical study reveals the advantages of these new types of models.

Examining the Impact of the Freddie Gray Unrest on Perceptions of the Police

Research SummaryTaking advantage of a large residential survey that was ongoing in Baltimore, Maryland, during the riots surrounding the death of Freddie Gray in 2015, in this study, we examined changes in attitudes of procedural justice and police legitimacy before and after the events occurred. We found little change in measures of obligation to obey the law, trustworthiness of the police, and procedural justice among residents of Baltimore.Policy ImplicationsThe police are facing a challenging period of turmoil and reform as incidents of police use of force against minorities continue to draw national attention. Our findings suggest, however, that these macro‐level events may have little immediate impact on views of police legitimacy and procedural justice, as contrasted with longer term historical relationships between the police and the public. We argue that more research is needed to understand broader societal factors that shape people's perceptions of the police as law enforcement and policy makers search for policies and programs to build trust with minority communities.

Socialist Workhorse to Capitalist Powerhouse: Developing a Modern Chinese Commercial Fleet in the Pre-Reform Era

As China approaches dominance in commercial shipping, the task of understanding its rise from irrelevance as a seafaring nation in 1949 to its current position has increasing importance. This article remedies the absence of scholarship on this subject by describing the foundation and development of China’s commercial fleet through political turmoil before 1971. Working with data from Chinese annals 志, chronicles 史, and international primary sources, the article explores the development of China’s merchant fleet. Fleet development followed two contrasting modes: the domestic fleet, founded on a backward junk fleet and a limited fleet of liners inherited in 1949 and shaped by internal pressures, and an international fleet, which developed modern capacity and became integrated with the global market. The article traces the growth of China’s fleet through a period of political turmoil from 1966 to 1971 when, paradoxically, fleet-building demonstrated impressive stability. This suggests high-level political patronage despite violent and contrary changes in political circumstances.

The Impact of Jumps on Carry Trade Returns

This paper investigates how jump risks are priced in currency markets. We find that currencies whose changes are more sensitive to negative market jumps provide significantly higher expected returns. The positive risk premium constitutes compensation for the extreme losses during periods of market turmoil. Using the empirical findings, we propose a jump modified carry trade strategy, which has approximately 2-percentage-point (per annum) higher returns than the regular carry trade strategy. These findings result from the fact that negative jump betas are significantly related to the riskiness of currencies and business conditions.

The impact of jumps on carry trade returns

This paper investigates how jump risks are priced in currency markets. We find that currencies whose changes are more sensitive to negative market jumps provide significantly higher expected returns. The positive risk premium constitutes compensation for the extreme losses during periods of market turmoil. Using the empirical findings, we propose a jump modified carry trade strategy, which has approximately two-percentage-point (per annum) higher returns than the regular carry trade strategy. These findings result from the fact that negative jump betas are significantly related to the riskiness of currencies and business conditions.

Forecasting crude oil price volatility

We use high-frequency intra-day realized volatility data to evaluate the relative forecasting performances of various models that are used commonly for forecasting the volatility of crude oil daily spot returns at multiple horizons. These models include the RiskMetrics, GARCH, asymmetric GARCH, fractional integrated GARCH and Markov switching GARCH models. We begin by implementing Carrasco, Hu, and Ploberger’s (2014) test for regime switching in the mean and variance of the GARCH(1, 1), and find overwhelming support for regime switching. We then perform a comprehensive out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation using a battery of tests. We find that, under the MSE and QLIKE loss functions: (i) models with a Student’s t innovation are favored over those with a normal innovation; (ii) RiskMetrics and GARCH(1, 1) have good predictive accuracies at short forecast horizons, whereas EGARCH(1, 1) yields the most accurate forecasts at medium horizons; and (iii) the Markov switching GARCH shows a superior predictive accuracy at long horizons. These results are established by computing the equal predictive ability test of Diebold and Mariano (1995) and West (1996) and the model confidence set of Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) over the entire evaluation sample. In addition, a comparison of the MSPE ratios computed using a rolling window suggests that the Markov switching GARCH model is better at predicting the volatility during periods of turmoil.

Relationship between economic stress factors and stress, anxiety, and depression: Moderating role of social support

The economic crisis had a detrimental impact on the economies of several European countries, namely in Portugal. The literature emphasizes that periods of economic turmoil potentiate the appearance of mental health issues, such as stress, anxiety, and depression, and decrease populations’ well-being. The present study, conducted in Portugal, was performed with a sample of 729 individuals, 33.9% males and 66.1% females, with an average age of 36.99 years old. Its’ aim was to assess the relationship between economic stress factors (economic hardship, financial threat, and financial well-being) and stress, anxiety, and depression, as well as to test the moderating effect of social support on this relationship. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the relationships defined. When comparing the results obtained in the models without and with social support as a moderator, statistically significant differences were observed on the relationships between financial threat and depression and between economic hardship and stress, anxiety, and depression. Regarding the association between financial threat and stress and anxiety, the effect of the economic stressor decreased in the presence of social support, but the differences were not statistically significant. The implications of these results are discussed and strategies to foster social support are proposed.