Period Of Economic Crisis Research Articles

Modelling Seasonal Short-Run Effects in Time-Series Tourism Prices

The paper’s primary purpose is to better monitor shocks; therefore, reliable scientific methods should be used to predict, monitor, and implement those events. In this paper, tourism prices are studied as an economic, I(2) and social phenomenon for better performance. The selection of inadequacies in price time series is analysed. The state-of-the-art proposed methodology step of nominal to real prices is based on monthly data using the cointegrated-vector-autoregressive model (CVAR). This is the key feature selection on time-series properties in the economy and supported software(s). An attempt at a CVAR model with five seasonally unadjusted macroeconomic variables is developed. It introduces a meaningful, genuine and indispensable new data vector of transformed variables, and this stepwise process is more appropriate against the wrong model specification. The results for the period of economic crises show that the proposed model is reliable from nominal to real prices, and the researchers implement normality to price modelling in its econometric mock-up phase. Overall, the proposed model predicts testable events for up to 48-months.

Austerity, Short-term Economic Recovery and Public Perception of Immigration in Ireland

The economic crisis of 2007/2008 did not affect all members of the European Union (EU) to the same extent. In the Irish case, the economic crisis and subsequent period of austerity paralleled an erosion in public support for immigration. However, little is known about how public perception changed during a period of short-term economic recovery, like that experienced in Ireland from 2014 to 2018. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data unique to Ireland, this work captures change in attitudes towards immigrants during the pre-crisis and late-austerity periods. Moreover, this research evaluates the importance placed on two immigrant attributes intimately linked to the labour market — education and skills. We provide evidence of an emergence of more moderate views of immigration during the recovery period, but only in the perceived importance of educational qualifications. Perception of skills remains notably unchanged. Of note, both attributes remain more important in the public eye relative to before the economic crisis. In other words, short-term economic recovery does not automatically translate into a more welcoming reception. We confirm that crises and periods of austerity erode public perception of newcomers, particularly when immigration is framed in terms of skill-based economic contribution. However, this work reveals some of the scars of a rapid and deep economic downturn alter the context of reception in a durable way, which remains notably resistant to short-term recovery.

The 'Covid-Trigger': New Light on Urban Agriculture and Systemic Approach to Urbanism to Co-Create a Sustainable Lisbon.

In 2018, Lisbon won the title of Green capital of Europe 2020. It was described by the Expert Panel as an inspirational city which had started its journey towards sustainability during a period of economic crisis. A year later, Covid-19 had become a global pandemic. Imposed confinements highlighted the extent to which globalisation has spread the virus, as well as the particular fragility of places like cities where people, living together, were asked to not physically interact anymore. Exploring further that very particular global crisis can help to identify the faults in our economic systems and to ask why Lisbon was neither resilient nor sustainable in the face of that adversity. In addition to highlighting how weak our health is, Covid-19 has exacerbated vulnerabilities in Lisbon such as job losses (especially in the touristic sector), food supply (Portugal imports 70% of its food) and food waste. This paper explores how the activity which, ‘par excellence’, meets the most basic of our needs (food), through the example of Urban Agriculture (UA), could contribute to discussions on what makes a city sustainable. A literature review on UA in Lisbon highlights its various benefits, complemented by a broader literature review which converges to showing how UA can help to address the vulnerabilities generated or exacerbated by Covid. Having shown its potential contribution to addressing crises, this article then suggests to examine how systems approaches could help to incorporate UA further in a new type of more participatory urbanism aimed at creating sustainable cities.

Wine and Cultural Tourism as One of Niche Tourism Opportunities in Canada and Slovakia

The article deals with new development in tourism, especially after the pandemic situation of COVID-19. In the period of economic crises and turmoil tourism places are able to benefit from the positive influence of so called soft and more sustainable values created by the improvement of image, reputation and the quality of destination services, by using of local cultural resources and heritage. The objective of this study is wine tourism, which has become one of the growing niche attractors in specific regions all over the world. In the combination with culinary tourism and cultural tourism offers a specific tourism product not only to the segment of cultural tourists, but tends to be more attractive to the segments of seniors. The study will be focused on two countries, Canada and the case of Brand Niagara Region and Slovakia. The qualitative research has been prepared, especially focused on product development and the innovative promotion strategies. These two countries were chosen due to a personal experience, former research and interest in this topic.

Big data architecture and data mining analysis for market segment applications of differential global navigation satellite system (GNSS) services: case study of the analysis of the demand for navigation and agriculture

AbstractLocation and navigation services based on global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are needed for real-time high-precision positioning applications in relevant economic sectors, such as precision agriculture, transport, civil engineering or mapping. Real-time navigation users of GNSS networks have significantly increased all around the world, since the 1990s, and usage has exceeded initial expectations. Therefore, if the evolution of GNSS network users is monitored, the dynamics of market segments can be studied. The implementation of this hypothesis requires the treatment of big volumes of navigation data over several years and the continuous monitoring of customers. This paper is focused on the management of massive connection of GNSS users in an efficient way, in order to obtain analysis and statistics. Big data architecture and data analyses based on data mining algorithms have been implemented as the best way to approach the hypothesis. Results demonstrate the dynamic of users of different market segments, the increasing demand over the years and, specifically, conclusions are obtained about the trends, year-on-year correlation and business volume recovering after economic crisis periods.

Self-construal and Insecure Attachment Variation and Co-variation During a Period of Economic Crisis

Changes in socioeconomic conditions can affect how people understand themselves. The present analyses tested hypotheses on individuals’ self-construal and insecure attachment variation and co-variation during a period of severe and prolonged economic downturn in Greece, a typically more collectivist culture. Adult attachment and self-construal were surveyed in 15 independent samples of young adults collected consecutively between 2004 and 2016. Significantly lower independence, but not higher interdependence, was observed in recent crisis-stricken years of higher unemployment compared to earlier (pre-crisis) years. Participants also reported higher insecure attachment, particularly higher anxious attachment in recent years. However, it were temporal changes in avoidance that were associated with a greater decline in independent self-construal during the time period studied. Avoidance also preceded temporal variability in independent self-construal during this period. The results highlight links between socioeconomic conditions and individual-level variation in cultural understandings of the self and insecure attachment, and point to socio-cognitive processes that may explain interrelationships between two constructs that partly lie at different levels of understanding the self.

Incidence of Corporate Income Tax: Estimates from Indian Manufacturing Firms


 
 
 
 The purpose of this paper is to examine the incidence of corporate tax on capital and labour in Indian manufacturing sector. The paper employs ‘Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method’ with add-up restriction based on the work of Desai, Foley and Hines (2007). The study shows that, for the manufacturing sector in India for the period 2005-19, the corporate tax has a significant adverse impact on both wages paid to employees and profit after tax. Capital owners bear 96.3% of the tax burden and labours bear only 3.7%. The adverse effect on wages is slightly higher in public firms than in private firms. The relative tax burdens of labour and capital remained the same in the pre-2008 global economic crisis and post-crisis periods. The impact on both wages and profits increase with age and size of firms but decrease with leverage. These results will be useful to policymakers and other stakeholders to take appropriate strategies to design the corporate tax policy such that it is more redistributive, and not a burden for labour in manufacturing firms in India. The paper contributes to the scant empirical literature on corporate tax incidence.
 
 
 

Cobertura de Volatilidad del Precio de la Electricidad Aplicando la Descomposición Estacional y de Tendencia

The Wholesale Electricity Market (MEM) has allowed participants to trade electricity at Local Marginal Price (LMP); therefore, developing hedging models to face high volatility electricity prices and avoid financial losses has become essential. This work proposes a methodology based on the Seasonal and Trend Decomposition Model (STL) to the LMP returns series, which is fitted into NIG distribution by obtaining empirical NIG parameters from LMP returns using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to generate a simulated NIG distributed series. Finally, the goodness-of-fit test is estimated to demonstrate that empirical data can be fitted into NIG Distribution. This work should be considered the first Electricity Hedging Valuation Methodology for the MEM. Results obtained show that electricity price returns can be fitted and simulated by NIG distribution even through economic crisis periods. The analysis period is from 29/01/2016 to 09/07/2021.JEL Classification: C15; G10; O13; P18; Q47.

Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence of Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies Implemented during the Subprime and COVID-19 Crises: The Brazilian Case

This article analyses, theoretically and empirically, the countercyclical economic policies, in particular the fiscal and monetary ones, implemented by the Brazilian Economic Authorities (BEAs) in response to the International Financial Crisis (IFC), 2007-2008, and the COVID-19 crisis, 2020. The main objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of those policies not only in times of economic growth, but mainly in periods of economic crisis. This idea is in line with the main arguments of Keynesian macroeconomics, which supports the theoretical framework of the article. The empirical analysis of the article shows the effects of fiscal (government spending) and monetary (interest rate) policies in the Brazilian economy between 1996 and 2020. Thus, it was estimated a MS-VAR model to analyze the impacts of fiscal and monetary policies in periods of economic growth and economic crisis. The main results indicate that the effects of fiscal and monetary policies are more pronounced during a period of economic crisis than in a situation of economic growth, supporting, thus, the Keynesian arguments that fiscal and monetary policies are able to affect the economic cycles.

КАДРОВЫЙ ПОТЕНЦИАЛ СИСТЕМЫ ЗДРАВООХРАНЕНИЯ РФ: ВОПРОСЫ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ И ТЕНДЕНЦИИ РАЗВИТИЯ

The problems of staffing the Russian healthcare system, the impact of the general level of financing, the wage reform, and the level of professional training on the employment dynamics of doctors, mid-level and junior healthcare personnel are considered. The purpose of the paper is to identify the main trends in the field of staffing in the industry and to assess the degree of influence on healthcare workers of factors related to the size of government spending and the effectiveness of the remuneration system. The study was conducted using methods of statistical and content analysis of regulatory documents, scientific literature and Internet sources. The novelty of the study consists in observing the cyclical nature of employment in the healthcare sector in the period 1990-2020, which had peaks of employment growth during periods of increased labor costs and peaks of decline during periods of economic crises. According to the results of the study, the influence of employment conditions and the amount of government spending on changes in the level of employment in healthcare has been established. Conclusions are drawn about the relevance of salary increases and standardization of incentive payments and allowances to healthcare workers, the transition to direct budget financing of the industry. In practice, the obtained research results can be used to improve the system of remuneration and management of human resources in healthcare in the context of the current needs of society.

АКСИОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ ФУНКЦИЯ ПРЕСС-КОНФЕРЕНЦИЙ ПРЕЗИДЕНТА В ПУБЛИЧНОЙ ПОЛИТИКЕ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ РОССИИ

The big press conferences of the President of Russia over the past two decades has become a tool for expressing the official position, public goal-setting, as well as a kind of «reconciliation» of the values of the political elite and Russian society. In this paper we purpose to identify value connotations in the discursive practices of participants of these press conferences in the 2001-2021. We want to complement existing empirical studies of public policy and adapt well-known theories of political axiology to Russian practice. We use such methods as cross-cultural research; content analysis; clustering and mapping; analysis of secondary sociological data; analysis of macroeconomic statistics; correlation analysis etc. We revealed the strengthening of the materialistic component of public discourse (by Ronald Inglehart) during periods of economic crisis. Generational gap is also influence on the structure of political values. Also we confirmed the Geert Hofstede’s thesis about the collectivist values dominance and high power distance in Russian society. Russian political discourse gravitates towards both egalitarian values (by Shalom Schwartz) and liberal values (by Milton Rokeach). We found a negative statistical relationships between the frequency of public mention of political values and their approval by the respondents, as well as between the frequency of using axiologemes with the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators. The increase in the frequency of mentioning political values during periods of economic recession we interpret as attempts by the elite to rally around the flag in the face of economic difficulties. Persistent negative connotations between the public voicing of political values and their perception by respondents indicate the existence of a latent value conflict between the elite and society, which manifests itself in an increase in the demand for change.

Economic and sanitary crisis and performance of health and insurance plans: similarities and singularities between Brazil and the United States

The economic crisis that began in the United States in 2008 and its impact in Brazil starting in 2014 preceded the health crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering these three time intervals, this article analyzes the susceptibility of health plan and insurance companies to economic cycles of recession in Brazil and the United States. There is evidence of a relationship between periods of economic crisis and retraction of actions and services in national health systems. However, both the United States and Brazil showed a growth in the number of health and insurance plans. The vectors driving the expansion of the private market in both countries have similarities and singularities. The "Obamacare" marks the beginning of the inclusion of population segments in the coverage of programs that use private care schemes, funded with government resources. In Brazil, despite negative general economic indices and reduction in the public health budget, health plan companies increased revenues and profits, even in the context of the pandemic and the growing economic crisis in the country. Business strategies to attract foreign investors were combined with actions to obtain credits from public institutions and increase tax deductions and exemptions, preserving financial gains. A comparison between the impacts of the financial crisis on the Brazilian and American private health markets allowed us to identify the weaknesses of our universal public system absorbed by market rationality.

ДЕРЖАВНА ПІДТРИМКА МАЛОГО БІЗНЕСУ В УКРАЇНІ: ПРОБЛЕМИ ТА ЇХ РОЗВ'ЯЗАННЯ

The role of small and medium entrepreneurship (SME) in the conditions of structural shifts in the labor market is changed and the directions of state support for its development, including the martial law conditions, are substantiated. Attention is paid to the fluctuations in the dynamics of the number of SMEs in Ukraine and the main indicators of their economic activity. The reasons that cause the differences of Ukrainian SMEs in comparison with foreign countries are explained. The main reasons for slowing down the development of SMEs are revealed. As one of the reasons is considered imperfect tax regulation of SMEs, the tax innovations of 2022 and the tax mini- reform (March 2022), designed to reduce the tax burden during martial law are analyzed. It is also concluded that the objective conditions of the business environment of SMEs, in particular in the introduction of settlement registration equipment (CRE), are not sufficiently taken into account. The main activities of state support for SMEs are systematized, among which the provision of budgetary and non-governmental grants is a priority. The importance of state financial support to small and medium-sized enterprises, which is carried out through credit cheapening programs, is noted. Data on the use of such programs are given. The measures of state support through training and informing entrepreneurs are summarized. It is stated that state support measures for SMEs do not take into account the trends in the spread of temporary and part-time employment (precariousness), which is especially clear in periods of economic crises, complex structural changes, military operations and other force majeure circumstances that cause waves of migration. It is concluded that the need for state support for small business is caused not only by the economic vulnerability of SMEs (limited material and technical base and financial resources, limited local markets and opportunities for development), but also by the latest trends in the labor market, as well as structural changes in the economy. The prospects of research into the state policy of SME support, taking into account the impact on its development of precariousness of the business environment are emphasized.

Greek Political Economy in a Period of Economic Crisis: The Need for a National Growth Strategy Plan

In this paper, we will approach the origins of the Greek public debt crisis under the prism of the Greek Economy’s fiscal position over time; the evolution of budget deficits; as well as the (distorted) growth model that prevailed in the country during the past few decades. We argue that the public debt crisis was to a great extent the result of accumulated budget deficits and, at the same time, the predominance of a non-sustainable growth model, which has been parasitically thriving off the state. This sort of distorted government intervention in the economy used borrowed resources to create a wasteful state, which sustained high aggregate demand and high private consumption and, by extension, fuelled non-sustainable growth. Our argument is that the growth achieved by the Greek economy was not the outcome of competitive, innovative, and outward-oriented entrepreneurship, albeit was to a great extent the result of high private consumption, as well as investment in non-tradeable goods. As a result, this non-sustainable growth failed to create the conditions for the sustainable management of Greece’s ballooning deficits and debt.

References to the Russan Society’s Values in the Presidential Addresses to the Federal Assembly

The digital transformation intensifies a devaluation of traditional institutions and the need to search for new integrating factors which are called upon to be the values shared by the society. We purpose to identify the value connotations in the discursive practices of the Presidential Addresses to the Federal Assembly from 1994-2021. We use such methods as the identification and classification of values by cross-cultural research; content analysis; clustering and mapping; analysis of secondary sociological data from representative public opinion polls conducted in the analyzed years; analysis of macroeconomic statistics; correlation analysis, etc. We revealed the strengthening of the materialistic component of public discourse (Ronald Inglehart) during periods of economic crisis. We also confirmed the Geert Hofstede thesis of the dominance of collectivist values in Russian society, but not the high power distance. Russian political discourse gravitates towards both egalitarian values (Shalom Schwartz) and liberal values (Milton Rokeach). Persistent negative connotations between the public voicing of values and their perception by respondents indicate the existence of a latent value conflict between the elite and society, manifesting itself in an increase in the demand for change. We interpret the increase in the frequency of mentioning political values during periods of economic recession as attempts by the elite to rally around the flag, and also as a consequence of the gradual filling of values with new meanings in the mass consciousness. Persistent negative connotations between the the public voicing of political values and their perception by respondents indicate the existence of a latent value conflict between the elite and society, manifesting itself in an increase in the demand for change. The article both complements existing empirical studies of public policy and adapts well-known theories of political axiology to Russian practice.

Dugotrajni postkovid simptom - vreme za reformu fiskalnih pravila EU?

The paper investigates compliance with the EU fiscal rules in the period 1992-2020. The EU fiscal rules are prescribed as guidelines and represent a typical example of the soft law approach. The negative impact of the soft law approach is more visible after the periods of economic crisis (2008-2009; 2020-2022). The non-compliance with the prescribed ceilings on the level of the budgetary deficit and public debt create instability and various adverse economic effects. In the paper it is shown that existing rules are not adequate for the job they were made for. It is shown that the design and enforcement of the rules are poor, and that actually the European Commission, the watchdog, is in fact a toothless dog. The goal of the paper is to present potential reform alternatives with the aim to contribute to the reestablishment of the sound fiscal framework in the EU. The paper is concluded with the proposal of a completely new approach for the fiscal rules reform - Growth-Enhancement Fiscal Policy Switch (GEFPS).

Managing during the crisis: Factors coming from inside the society

This study summarizes the arguments and counter-arguments within the scientific debate on the welfare state issue. After the years of development of the welfare state caused by the development of the economy in the post-war years, when social rights became a new form of property, the 1970s came a period of economic crisis. The welfare state crisis comes with the economic crisis and is criticized by both the right and left of the political spectrums. This research checks whether changes in the labor market caused by the workforce transition from the environment of production to the environment of services greatly affect individuals and families. The research subject is labor migration and an increase in employment in the service sector versus a decrease in employment in the production sector caused by the arrival of the fourth and, according to some experts, the fifth industrial revolution. Other factors that are the subject of the research and are responsible for the crisis of the welfare state are the family crisis and the population’s aging. These factors individually do not threaten the functioning of the welfare state, but as a complex that creates a load in a common and synchronous time frame, they are highly dangerous for the welfare state. The main goal of this research is to point out the most serious factors coming from within a society that affects the functioning of the welfare state. The literature analysis on the welfare state, social economics, social policy, and labor migration confirmed the enormous increase in pressure on the welfare state in the last two decades. This study deals with the idea of the complete demise of the welfare state when multinational insurance companies take over its function. Another option is supplementing or replacing some parts of the welfare state with another alternative. Such an alternative is shown, for example, by the measures that were used during the C-19 pandemic in the Slovak Republic. This is mainly about the financial aid that the state distributed to entrepreneurs who were forced to suspend the operation of their businesses due to the pandemic. Such assistance had many common denominators with the Unconditional Basic Income project, which is increasingly popular in the world and is proving to be a suitable supplement to the social system and a supplement to the welfare state. The results of study could be useful both for student practice and social and scientific fields. At the end of the research, the study is dedicated to finding a solution to help the welfare state in the given situation.

Mergers as a competitiveness strategy in different business sectors during economic crisis period: Evidence from Greece

This paper investigates the accounting performance of companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange after mergers by the industrial sector during the period of the financial crisis in Greece. More specifically, all mergers of listed companies during the period 2012–2016 are examined, with the analysis of a final sample of twenty-six companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange. The evaluation of the accounting statements and the performance of Greek listed companies is done by extracting and comparing various figures from them (financial ratios) before and after the implementation of mergers. This research is based on the methodology of Healy, Palepu, and Ruback (1992) and Ramaswamy and Waegelein (2003) in order to explore if there is a positive or negative result from the merger transaction. The research results did not show any statistically significant change in any of the research financial ratios after the mergers. However, the effect of the absorbing company’s industry was examined in relation to the analyzed financial ratios and no better performance was observed for those in any industry. Finally, mergers as a competitiveness strategy in the business arena managed to provide the involved companies with a stable accounting performance during the crisis period in Greece.

Da li zlato predstavlja efikasnu zaštitu od inflacije - primer Srbije

Gold today has multiple uses. In addition to the instrument for financial investments, gold is used in the jewelry industry, but also in the industry for the production of various electronic components. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold gained an increasing role as an investment instrument. The traditional view is that gold represents a safe haven in periods of economic and political crises, as well as inflation. However, in recent years there has been an increasing number of papers that question this traditional view. Therefore, the paper analyzes whether gold is a protection against in ation in Serbia. The subject of the work analysis is the last twenty years. The paper consists of four parts. In the first part of the paper, a historical account of the development of money, i.e. the gold standard, is given. The second part of the paper provides an overview of the literature dealing with the issue of the role of gold. In the third part of the paper, an analysis of gold price trends and in ation in Serbia was carried out. And at the end of the paper, concluding considerations were given.

ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА НА РЫНКЕ ТРУДА В СТРАНАХ ЕС: ОСНОВНЫЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ

The aim of this paper is to determine the prospects for the development of employment programmes in the labour market and the directions for their transformation in the EU countries. The author uses general scientific methods, methods of statistical processing of information, graphical methods, and comparative analysis. The information base of the study includes statistical data and materials of international organizations (UN, ILO, Eurostat, European Commission). The research results: the article presents an analysis of labour market policy measures in the EU countries during periods of sustainable development and economic crises; considers the structure and dynamics of expenditures on various programmes and the number of their participants; identifies the government labour market policy trends and the features of its implementation in countries with developed market economies and in post-socialist countries; presents assessments of the prospects for labour market policies in the EU countries in the face of new challenges. The author concludes about the prospects for labour market policy in the EU countries in the face of new challenges and about the possibilities of using the EU experience in developing active labour market policy measures in Russia. The scope of application: the research results can be used by Russian federal and regional executive authorities in the development of active labour market policy measures.