Periodic Firing Research Articles

Synchronization, extreme multistability, and its control for a field coupled neurons with time delays

Neurons are connected through synapses, but it is not reasonable to equate the connection mode of synapses to an edge in the network due to synaptic plasticity whereas the magnetic field coupling can be considered to handle it. Therefore, in this paper, the interaction between HR neurons is realized by magnetic field coupling based on induction coil, and time delay is introduced to represent the lag in information transfer. First, the coexisting firing activities and synchronization behaviors in dual neuronal networks are numerically calculated, respectively, depending on the external stimulation current, coupling strength, time delays, and initial conditions. When the time delays are given, it is interesting to note that the infinite number of firing modes including chaotic firing, periodical firing, and quiescent state is induced by initial conditions. Due to the initial values, the types of synchronization consisting of complete synchronization, delayed synchronization, and asynchronization are then revealed under the framework of extreme multistability. In particular, the state of complete synchronization exhibits only quiescent state and period-1 firing when the time delay is not equal to 0. Furthermore, the linear augmentation method is conceived to control extreme multistability. It can be found that the attractors with different positions and topological structures can be controlled to the point attractors with the same shape but with different positions when the coupling strength of linear system and nonlinear system is increased. That is, the heterogeneous multistability can be successfully controlled to the homogeneous multistability, and the coupled neurons can also be achieved synchronization after control. These conclusions in this paper could be helpful in providing new insights for studying neurodynamics and applying neural circuits.

Relationship between Forest Fuel Moisture Contents and Weather Factors During the Forest Fires Danger Season in Chuncheon, Gangwon

The amount of moisture contained in fallen leaves in the forest is closely related to the possibility of the ignition and spread of a forest fire. This moisture content is an important fundamental component of the forest fire danger rating system, as well as an essential parameter in forest fire management. This study examined the relationship between the moisture content of fuel in the forests and weather information obtained from HOBO data loggers installed in forests during the forest fire seasons of 2018 and 2020. The moisture content of the forest fuel was divided into two slopes (south and north), and the fallen leaves used were broad-leaved (Prunus serrulate and Quercus dentata) and coniferous (Pinus densiflora and Pinus koraiensis). The temperature (mean, minimum, and maximum) and relative humidity (mean and minimum) data obtained from the weather measuring devices installed in the forests were used to correlate weather factors with fuel moisture content. During the spring forest fire period, the temperature (mean, minimum, and maximum) and relative humidity (mean and minimum) of each slope and tree species were significant, while the average temperature and relative humidity were significant during the autumn. According to the correlations between the fuel moisture content and weather, factors with high significance were selected, and multiple regression analyses of the slope and species were found to be significant at 1 percent. The results of this study are expected to be used as primary data for calculating the fuel index of the forest fire forecasting system by accounting for the effects of weather factors on the moisture content of the fuel.

Fire exclusion changes belowground bud bank and bud-bearing organ composition jeopardizing open savanna resilience.

Belowground bud bank regeneration is a successful strategy for plants in fire-prone communities. It depends on the number and location of dormant and viable buds stored on belowground organs. A highly diverse belowground bud-bearing organ system maintained by a frequent interval of fire events guarantees the supply of a bud bank that enables plants to persist and resprout after disturbance. We investigated how different fire exclusion and fire frequencies, affected the herbaceous layer in tropical savannas, by assessing belowground persistence and regeneration traits. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that under a shorter fire exclusion period, the total bud bank increased at a lower fire frequency. But sites at longer fire exclusion and infrequent fire, the bud bank was smaller the longer the period since the last fire. However, the major shift was concerning organ diversity since fire exclusion was more related to loss of belowground diversity rather than decreasing of the belowground bud bank size. Furthermore, fire-associated bud-bearing structures like xylopodia disappeared in the fire suppressed areas, whereas clonal organs, such as rhizomes, developed in the bud bank. By quantifying belowground bud bank traits under different fire histories, we highlight the importance of the local fire regime on the composition of the belowground plant components, which can affect the tropical savanna aboveground plant community. Given that, loss of the belowground bud-bearing component of the plant community will have a direct effect on vegetation regeneration in post-fire environments, and consequently, on plant community resilience.

Farm Alarm Detection System (FADS) Frameworks

Farms cover large areas of the total area in the Sultanate of Oman, and these farms need a high-quality security system against fires, which is the biggest threat to the lives of farmers. Farm Alarm Detection System (FADS) is one of the modern technologies that protect the property of individuals and groups that are rarely used at the present time. The principle work of the FADS is to sense the smoke associated with the occurrence of fires and then warn the farm owner of the possibility of a fire in a short period of time after sensing the smoke. The device emits an audible alarm and sends an SMS to the farm owner about the possibility of a fire, according to the amount of smoke sensed through the sensors. The architecture of this type of system requires four devices connected together to accomplish the job. The results showed that when smoke and toxic gases are formed in a specific proportion, the device triggers an alarm and sends a text message indicating the possibility of a fire.

A Collection of Airborne Measurements and Analyses of Trace Gases Emitted From Multiple Fires in California

AbstractBiomass burning is an important source of trace gases and particles, and can influence air quality on local, regional, and global scales. With the threat of wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, the importance of characterizing wildfire emissions is vital. In this work we characterize trace gas emissions from 12 wildfires and 1 prescribed fire in California between 2013 and 2017, in some cases with multiple measurements performed during different burn periods of a specific fire. Airborne measurements of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, formaldehyde, water vapor, temperature, and three‐dimensional winds were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment and have been published at NASA's Atmospheric Science Data Center (https://doi.org/10.5067/ASDC/AJAX/wildfire, Iraci et al., 2021). The majority of these measurements were made as close as possible to each fire and represent fresh emissions from known fire sources. This set of observations from 13 different fires offers the opportunity to explore trace gas emissions over a range of meteorology, fire conditions, and to a lesser extent, vegetation type and drought, and adds to the body of knowledge collected by other investigators and field campaigns.

Forest fire susceptibility prediction using machine learning models with resampling algorithms, Northern part of Eastern Ghat Mountain range (India)

Periodic forest fires destruct to biodiversity, ecosystem productivity and multiple ecosystem services. Forest fires are currently turning a leading cause of forest degradation. The principal objective of this research is to predict forest fire vulnerable zones over Similipal biosphere reserve (SBR; Odisha) using different machine learning (ML) models, such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Different resampling methods (CV and bootstrap) have also been applied for optimizing the result and better accuracy. Results show that 10-fold cross validation (CV) technique performed best on SVM model (AUC = 0.83) whereas bootstrap performed best on RF (AUC = 0.80) and MARS model (AUC= 0.84). The main advantage of MARS model is that it only uses input variable and significantly increases the performance of the model. The novelty of this research is application of various ML algorithms through resampling techniques to reduce the biasness and improves the reliability of the models.

Mesophication of upland oak forests: Implications of species-specific differences in leaf litter decomposition rates and fuelbed composition

Without periodic fire, historically open-canopied, oak-dominated upland woodlands of the central and eastern United States are shifting to closed-canopied forests with increased abundance of shade-tolerant and typically fire-sensitive species. Once established, these encroaching species (i.e., mesophytes) are hypothesized to initiate a positive feedback termed mesophication where mesophytes perpetuate conditions that foster their own proliferation at the expense of oaks (Quercus spp.). One potential mechanism of mesophication is reduced fuel loads through faster decomposition rates of mesophyte leaf litter, as leaf litter is the primary fuel in closed canopy forests. To better understand how different tree species impact fuel loads, we compared initial leaf litter chemistry and one-year (2016–2017) decomposition rates of four non-oak species exhibiting increased abundance in the region and/or relatively high sapling/midstory abundance relative to the overstory on our sites (red maple [Acer rubrum], sugar maple [A. saccharum], American beech [Fagus grandifolia], and hickory [Carya spp.]) and three oak species (black oak [Q. velutina], chestnut oak [Q. montana], white oak [Q. alba]) in an upland oak forest in north-central Kentucky. We also evaluated fuelbed mass, composition, and bulk density beneath overstory (20–60 cm DBH) individuals of each species following leaf fall in December 2016. Except for American beech (66% mass remaining), we found non-oak leaf litter, especially that of red and sugar maple, decomposed the fastest (45 and 48% mass remaining), and oak leaf litter decomposed the slowest (54–64% mass remaining). Further, although total leaf litter fuel loads in December were similar beneath individuals of different tree species, fuel composition differed. Under non-oak crowns, the proportion of leaf litter from non-oaks was 22–35%, while under oak crowns, the proportion of leaf litter from non-oaks was only 10–12%. This suggests that individual trees of non-oaks are impacting fuel composition beneath their own crowns despite continued oak dominance at the stand scale. Considering differences between species in both leaf litter inputs based on allometric equations and decomposition rates, modeled leaf litter fuel loads in a forest composed entirely of red maple, sugar maple, or Carya spp. were ∼20% lower than an oak forest after one year of decomposition. While limited to the species examined in this study, these findings confirm that the leaf litter of non-oaks, excluding American beech, decomposes more rapidly than oak and that individual non-oak trees alter fuelbed composition beneath their crowns, suggesting that oak woodlands will become less-flammable with increasing mesophytic dominance.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Climate Influence of Forest Fires in Fujian Province, China

Climate determines the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of forest fires by affecting vegetation and the extent of drought. Thus, analyzing the dynamic change of the forest fire season and its response to climate change will play an important role in targeted adjustments of forest fire management policies and practices. In this study, we studied the spatiotemporal variations in forest fire occurrence in Fujian Province, China using the Mann–Kendall trend test and correlation analysis to analyze Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 2001 to 2016 and meteorological data. The results show that forest fire occurrence rose first and then declined over the years, but the proportion of forest fires during the fire prevention period decreased. The forest fires increased significantly in spring and summer, exceeding the forest fires occurring in the fire prevention period in 2010. The spatial distribution of forest fires decreased from northwest to southeast coastal areas, among which the number of forest fires in the northwest mountainous areas was large in autumn and winter. The fire risk weather index was strongly and positively correlated with forest fire occurrence across various sites in the province. The findings accentuate the need for properly adjusting the fire prevention period and resource allocation, strengthening the monitoring and early warning of high fire risk weather, and publicizing wildfire safety in spring and summer. As the forest fire occurrence frequency is high in the western and northwest mountainous areas, more observation towers and forest fire monitoring facilities should be installed.

Load Bearing Capacity of Light Timber Frame Walls Under Fire

Light Timer Frame Walls are made of solid timber elements and are usually fire protected by other materials. This investigation determines the residual load bearing capacity of Light Timber Frame Walls for fire rating periods of 30, 60, 90 and 120 min. The timber frame is made with 3 studs and 2 tracks, using two different fire protection levels (one and two gypsum layers). The computational model includes the thermal analysis under standard fire, including all types of materials and a sequential mechanical analysis with incremental load applied for each fire rating periods, applied just for the load bearing material. Nonlinear solution methods are used with small tolerance values for solution convergence, to determine the correct temperature and displacement fields. The thermal and the mechanical properties are considered temperature dependent. The mechanical analysis considers large displacement behaviour, and the charring effect of wood is included by the reduction of the stiffness and strength of the timber. The results show that the load bearing capacity decreases with the fire exposure time. A new proposal is presented between the load bearing capacity and the fire rating and finally the char layer is compared with the current and future version of Eurocode 5, part 1.2.

Large coefficient of variation of inter-spike intervals induced by noise current in the resonate-and-fire model neuron.

Neuronal spike variability is a statistical property associated with the noise environment. Considering a linearised Hodgkin-Huxley model, we investigate how large spike variability can be induced in a typical stellate cell when submitted to constant and noise current amplitudes. For low noise current, we observe only periodic firing (active) or silence activities. For intermediate noise values, in addition to only active or inactive periods, we also identify a single transition from an initial spike-train (active) to silence dynamics over time, where the spike variability is low. However, for high noise current, we find intermittent active and silence periods with different values. The spike intervals during active and silent states follow the exponential distribution, which is similar to the Poisson process. For non-maximal noise current, we observe the highest values of inter-spike variability. Our results suggest sub-threshold oscillations as a possible mechanism for the appearance of high spike variability in a single neuron due to noise currents.

Fires on Ice: Emerging Permafrost Peatlands Fire Regimes in Russia’s Subarctic Taiga

Wildfires in permafrost areas, including smoldering fires (e.g., “zombie fires”), have increasingly become a concern in the Arctic and subarctic. Their detection is difficult and requires ground truthing. Local and Indigenous knowledge are becoming useful sources of information that could guide future research and wildfire management. This paper focuses on permafrost peatland fires in the Siberian subarctic taiga linked to local communities and their infrastructure. It presents the results of field studies in Evenki and old-settler communities of Tokma and Khanda in the Irkutsk region of Russia in conjunction with concurrent remote sensing data analysis. The study areas located in the discontinuous permafrost zone allow examination of the dynamics of wildfires in permafrost peatlands and adjacent forested areas. Interviews revealed an unusual prevalence and witness-observed characteristics of smoldering peatland fires over permafrost, such as longer than expected fire risk periods, impacts on community infrastructure, changes in migration of wild animals, and an increasing number of smoldering wildfires including overwintering “zombie fires” in the last five years. The analysis of concurrent satellite remote sensing data confirmed observations from communities, but demonstrated a limited capacity of satellite imagery to accurately capture changing wildfire activity in permafrost peatlands, which may have significant implications for global climate.

Monitoring burn severity and air pollutants in wildfire events using remote sensing data: the case of Mersin wildfires in summer 2021

Remotely sensed data have been used to investigate air pollutants and matter toxicity, land cover changes and burn severity. The goal of this study is to analyze land and atmospheric data for wildfire events that occurred in Mersin Province between July 28 and August 3, 2021. We used a variety of open-access remotely sensed data sets (MODIS, Sentinel 2A and Sentinel 5P TROPOMI) from the pre-fire (20-27 July), fire (28 July – 3 August), and post-fire period (4-10 August). This comprehensive study's findings can be divided into two categories. The first group is the land cover output, which includes maps of the affected region's land surface temperature and burn severity, as well as comparisons of the two. The atmospheric output, which consists of trace gas column density maps (for carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, sulphur dioxide and ozone), is the second group. The quantitative results of these analyses indicate that high severity areas correspond to 16.536 hectares, and the maximum column number density reached to 0.071 mol/m2 for carbon monoxide, 0.0043 mol/m2 for formaldehyde, 0.00049 mol/m2 for sulphure dioxide and 0.137 mol/m2 for ozone. The burn severity is found to be highly correlated with land surface temperatures. Pollutant levels in the atmosphere were found to be rising during and after the wildfire. There has not been any evidence of a significant increase in air pollutants near urban areas. However, ozone concentrations rose significantly after the wildfire because the province's nitrogen oxide levels were high enough to produce ozone.

Can Forest Fires Be an Important Factor in the Reduction in Solar Power Production in India?

The wildfires over the central Indian Himalayan region have attracted the significant attention of environmental scientists. Despite their major and disastrous effects on the environment and air quality, studies on the forest fires’ impacts from a renewable energy point of view are lacking for this region. Therefore, for the first time, we examine the impact of massive forest fires on the reduction in solar energy production over the Indian subcontinent via remote sensing techniques. For this purpose, we used data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO), the Satellite Application Facility on support to Nowcasting/Very Short-Range Forecasting Meteosat Second Generation (SAFNWC/MSG) in conjunction with radiative transfer model (RTM) simulation, in addition to 1-day aerosol forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The energy production during the first quarter of 2021 was found to reach 650 kWh/m2 and the revenue generated was about INR (Indian rupee) 79.5 million. During the study period, the total attenuation due to aerosols and clouds was estimated to be 116 and 63 kWh/m2 for global and beam horizontal irradiance (GHI and BHI), respectively. The financial loss due to the presence of aerosols was found to be INR 8 million, with the corresponding loss due to clouds reaching INR 14 million for the total Indian solar plant’s capacity potential (40 GW). This analysis of daily energy and financial losses can help the grid operators in planning and scheduling power generation and supply during the period of fires. The findings of the present study will drastically increase the awareness among the decision makers in India about the indirect effects of forest fires on renewable energy production, and help promote the reduction in carbon emissions and greenhouse gases in the air, along with the increase in mitigation processes and policies.

Effects of memristive autapse under field coupling on transition of collective dynamics in neural hypernetworks

Electrical and chemical synapses play important role in neural system. Recently, a neural hypernetwork by taking a unidirectional chemical synapse and bidirectional electrical synapse has been proposed. Electromagnetic radiation is also important to dynamical response and mode transition in firing activities of neurons. In this paper, we first investigate the effect of memristive autapse on transformation of firing activity modes on an individual Hindmarsh-Rose (HR) neuron. Different periodic firing activity patterns and chaotic firing activity modes are observed, and mode transition between these firing patterns can be induced by adjusting the value of delay time of memristive autapse. Then, we consider a HR neural hypernetwork with memristive autapse under field coupling. Collective behavior is studied numerically, and different collective dynamics are observed. Chaotic states, chimera states, imperfect traveling chimera states, traveling chimera states, synchronous coherent states are found when coupling parameters and delay time of memristive autapse are varied. These findings indicate that memristive autapse under field coupling plays a crucial role in neural networks.

Marginal imprint of human land use upon fire history in a mire-dominated boreal landscape of the Veps Highland, North-West Russia

Dendrochronological reconstructions inform us about historical climate-fire-human interactions, providing a means to calibrate projections of future fire hazard. Most of these reconstructions, however, have been developed in landscapes with a considerable proportion of xeric sites that could potentially inflate our estimates of the historic levels of fire activity. We provide a 420-year long reconstruction of fires in a mire-dominated landscape of the Veps Nature Park, North-West Russia. The area has mostly escaped large-scale forestry operations in the past and is an example of pristine mid-boreal vegetation with a high (approximately 30% for the area studied) proportion of waterlogged areas with ombrotropic mires. The historical fire cycle was 91.4 years (90% confidence intervals, CI 66.2–137.6 years) over the 1580–1720 period, decreasing to 35.9 (CI 28.1–47.6 years) between 1730 and 1770, and then increasing again to 122.7 years (CI 91.0–178.0 years) over the 1780–2000 period. Early season fires dominated over late season fires during the reconstruction period. We documented a higher fire activity period between 1730 and 1780, resulting from the increase in early season fires. This period coincided with one of the largest multi-decadal declines in the reconstructed spring precipitation since 1600 CE, although we found no significant relationship between fire and precipitation over the whole reconstructed period. The nine largest fire years were associated with negative summer precipitation and positive summer temperature anomalies over the study region. Land-use history of the area did not appear to have an effect on historical fire dynamics. Modern (1996–2016) fire records indicate a regional fire cycle of ∼ 1300 years, featuring a pronounced pattern with early (April–May) and late (July–September) season fires. The uniform fire cycle in the area since 1780, occurrence of nine largest fire years during years with spring-summer droughts, and low ignition frequencies over the last 420 years (0.005 to 0.037 ignitions per year and km2) suggest that the fire regime of the Veps Highland remained largely natural until the onset of the 20th century.

A decade of proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) population monitoring in Balikpapan Bay: Confronting predictions with empirical data.

Systematic and well-structured monitoring is essential for taxa with high extinction risk such as primates. Endangered proboscis monkeys Nasalis larvatus are endemic to Borneo, where they are found scattered across lowland habitats of the island, which are under strong anthropogenic pressure. A large population of proboscis monkeys in Balikpapan Bay, Indonesian Borneo, was predicted to decline due to the ongoing habitat loss and degradation, notably because of forest fires. We examined changes in the number and composition of groups of a part of this population from 2007 to 2017, which included a period of forest fires linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. We conducted a census from a boat; attempting to locate all proboscis monkey groups within the Balikpapan City administrative area in 2007, 2012, and 2017. During the most recent census, we observed a total number of 60 proboscis monkey groups in two subpopulations. The population density was 1.14 group per km2 of suitable habitat. Contrary to previously published predictions, we did not find evidence of a population decline. Contrary to predictions, the 2015 El Niño induced fires impacted mainly forests on ridges and slopes, thus affecting only a small part of the proboscis monkey habitat located close to rivers and mangrove swamps. However, the increasing population density of monkeys, coupled with ongoing habitat degradation and habitat loss in one of the subpopulations, suggests that proboscis monkey population in Balikpapan Bay may be approaching a limit of resilience to habitat changes. In case it proves infeasible to census all individuals in the whole population, we recommend using a group-level census, connected with systematic group counts to obtain a reasonably precise proboscis monkey population size estimate.

Аналіз і моделювання метеорологічних умов поширення радіонуклідів у періоди лісових пожеж та пилової бурі в Чорнобильській зоні відчуження

The simulation of meteorological conditions of the atmospheric transport of radioactive aerosols during the periods of wildland fires (2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022) and dust storm (April 16–17, 2020) in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone was carried out using the archive of reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Modeling of meteorological conditions and preparation of aerosynoptic information for the LEDI model of atmospheric transport and deposition of pollutants during periods of intense emission of radionuclides into the atmosphere was carried out using two sources of information: the results of the numerical weather forecast model WRF-ARW (USA) using the databases of the Reanalysis Project, and forecast data obtained according to the GFS global model and the ECMWF operational model, which are stored in the database of the CDS climate data repository (ERA5 Copernicus). The used WRF-ARW numerical model is adapted for the territory of Ukraine by selecting parameterization models of the main physical processes in the atmosphere in accordance with synoptic situations and the season of the year. A description of typical and extreme synoptic situations during the analyzed periods of wildland fires is given using the archive of synoptic maps of surface pressure and topography AT500 for the European territory and modern technologies of geoinformation systems. With the help of the conducted synoptic analysis of wildland fire periods, the most typical synoptic situations associated with the passage of cold fronts and the direction of north and northwest winds, which contribute mostly to the secondary radioactive contamination of environmental objects in the zone of influence of emission sources in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, were identified. Because of global climate changes and unpredictable human activity in the form of arsons, military actions, etc., the number of fires in forest areas, industrial and residential facilities is increasing. Open sources of numerical weather forecast data make it possible to create modern meteorological support for modeling of atmospheric transport and deposition of pollutants and assessment of secondary environmental pollution using the LEDI-WRF software complex.

Implementation of Wildfire Risk Evaluation Elements into the Hungarian Forest Fire Prevention System

Nowadays, wildfires are an increasing challenge for the defence sector. The fire risk of a given area depends only in part on human factors and the number of registered fires.A fire occurs when the moisture content of dead biomass drops to a level, where the fire can already spread between the individual pieces of fuel. Daily fire danger forecast examines the constant and changing components of the fire environment. This determines the flammability of the biomass; the rate of fire spread makes firefighting moredifficult. The fire danger forecast identifies the fire hazard periods when fires can occur. Fire Risk Assessment Systems have been developed in many countries around the world.In addition to the daily fire risk, these include parameters describing the vulnerability of the areas affected by the fire. National risk assessments are available in many countries around the world using several methodologies. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed a community-wide approach to forest fire risk assessment, using scientific results and studying good practices. In this approach, the risk of a forest fire is made up of the effects of daily fire hazards and vulnerabilities. The risk of fire due to weather conditions is associated with ignition and the spread of fire. The authors examine in the paper the basic criteria to assess wildfire risk at the pan-European level. The authors analyse external and internal risk factors in an observation plot and examine how international recommendations can be utilised in Hungary.

Complex Analysis of Wildfires in Hungary in the Last Decade

Wildfires are one of the most common natural disasters in the world, which cause millions of hectares of damage each year. This fact poses a major challenge to the defence sector. Environmental safety problems caused by wildfires affect not only the ecosystem but also all aspects of society. Research on the effects of climate change predicts a more uneven rainfall distribution and rising daily average temperatures in summer and autumn in the Carpathian Basin. The effects of climate change will be indirectly detectable, such as the extension of fire risk periods, the increase in the number of wildfires and their spatial and temporal distribution, and the increase in fire intensity. Changes due to climate change will pose an even greater challenge in the future to the Hungarian authorities, which are responsible for preventing and extinguishing wildfires. One of the purposes of the paper is to define indicators that can be used to compare the number and extent of wildfires each year with the degree of the daily fire risk and the length of periods during which the wildfires occurred. For this, it is necessary to define the concept of the high fire risk days and the endangered areas and parts of the country in the Hungarian climatic conditions. Based on previous statistical studies, the authors will examine the spring and summer fire seasons separately because of the different fuel conditions and the causes of fire ignition. They examine statistical data on wildfires and apply GIS application. Another aim of the research is to find a correlation between the daily fire risk values, the number of wildfires and the burned area. A fire risk-based investigation of the wildfires that have occurred in the last decade can later help in official preparation, annual planning and preparation of forces involved in the prevention and firefighting.

Основные положения по управлению структурой источников наружного противопожарного водоснабжения и средств пожаротушения населенных пунктов

Purpose. Large-scale wildfires and mass fires in settlements result in people loss, damage the environment and country's economy. In this regard, the authors raise the issue of improving organization of extinguishing such emergencies in settlements, as well as the need to develop a scientific-methodological approach to managing the structure of external fire water supply sources and fire extinguishing equipment in settlements. This will allow evaluating and justifying means and forces to ensure protection and safety of settlements as well as readiness of local authorities for a fire hazard period and protection of rural settlements from fire exposure; reducing response time to fires; preventing or reducing population loss. Methods. To obtain the results, general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge were used: analysis, synthesis, generalization, which were based on the concepts of systems theory, mathematical statistics apparatus, algorithms theory, sets theory and reliability theory, theory of information and mathematical logic, the main methods of justifying and evaluating the effectiveness of water supply systems elements in settlements. Findings. An algorithm for controlling the structure of external water supply sources and fire extinguishing equipment for settlements in case of large-scale or mass fires has been developed. Research application field. The obtained results are recommended for use in developing summary plan for extinguishing forest fires in territorial subjects of the Russian Federation; passport of a settlement subjected to forest fires hazard; activities plan for preventing and eliminating natural and man-made emergencies in territorial subjects of the Russian Federation. Conclusions. The developed scientific and methodological approach to managing the structure of external water supply sources and fire extinguishing equipment in settlements in case of large-scale or mass fires is the theoretical basis for decision support to be used by fire and rescue units in protecting settlements from the impact of large-scale or mass fires.