Аналіз і моделювання метеорологічних умов поширення радіонуклідів у періоди лісових пожеж та пилової бурі в Чорнобильській зоні відчуження

Abstract

The simulation of meteorological conditions of the atmospheric transport of radioactive aerosols during the periods of wildland fires (2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022) and dust storm (April 16–17, 2020) in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone was carried out using the archive of reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Modeling of meteorological conditions and preparation of aerosynoptic information for the LEDI model of atmospheric transport and deposition of pollutants during periods of intense emission of radionuclides into the atmosphere was carried out using two sources of information: the results of the numerical weather forecast model WRF-ARW (USA) using the databases of the Reanalysis Project, and forecast data obtained according to the GFS global model and the ECMWF operational model, which are stored in the database of the CDS climate data repository (ERA5 Copernicus). The used WRF-ARW numerical model is adapted for the territory of Ukraine by selecting parameterization models of the main physical processes in the atmosphere in accordance with synoptic situations and the season of the year. A description of typical and extreme synoptic situations during the analyzed periods of wildland fires is given using the archive of synoptic maps of surface pressure and topography AT500 for the European territory and modern technologies of geoinformation systems. With the help of the conducted synoptic analysis of wildland fire periods, the most typical synoptic situations associated with the passage of cold fronts and the direction of north and northwest winds, which contribute mostly to the secondary radioactive contamination of environmental objects in the zone of influence of emission sources in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, were identified. Because of global climate changes and unpredictable human activity in the form of arsons, military actions, etc., the number of fires in forest areas, industrial and residential facilities is increasing. Open sources of numerical weather forecast data make it possible to create modern meteorological support for modeling of atmospheric transport and deposition of pollutants and assessment of secondary environmental pollution using the LEDI-WRF software complex.